An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Implementation challenges of application of radio frequency identification (RFID) in warehouse

Warehouse is an essential component in the supply chain, linking the chain partners and providing them with functions of product storage, inbound and outbound operations along with value-added processes. Allocation of warehouse resources should be efficient and effective to achieve optimum productivity and reduce operational costs. Radio frequency identification (RFID) is a technology capable of providing real-time information about supply chain operations. It has been used by warehousing and logistic enterprises to achieve reduced shrinkage, improved material handling and tracking as well as increased accuracy of data collection. However, both academics and practitioners express concerns about challenges to RFID adoption in the supply chain. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the problems encountered in RFID implementation at warehouses, discussing the theoretical and practical adoption barriers and causes of not achieving full potential of the technology. Lack of foreseeable return on investment (ROI) and high costs are the most commonly reported obstacles. Variety of standards and radio wave frequencies are identified as source of concern for decision makers. Inaccurate performance of the RFID within the warehouse environment is examined. Description of integration challenges between warehouse management system and RFID technology is given. The paper discusses the existing solutions to technological, investment and performance RFID adoption barriers. Factors to consider when implementing the RFID technology are given to help alleviate implementation problems. By illustrating the challenges of RFID in the warehouse environment and discussing possible solutions the paper aims to help both academics and practitioners to focus on key areas constituting an obstacle to the technology growth. As more studies will address these challenges, the realisation of RFID benefits for warehouses and supply chain will become a reality.