Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA.

Using system dynamics in a discrete-event simulation study of a manufacturing plant

Purpose - To provide an example of the use of system dynamics within the context of a discrete-event simulation study. Design/methodology/approach - A discrete-event simulation study of a production-planning facility in a gas cylinder-manufacturing plant is presented. The case study evidence incorporates questionnaire responses from sales managers involved in the order-scheduling process. Findings - As the project progressed it became clear that, although the discrete-event simulation would meet the objectives of the study in a technical sense, the organizational problem of "delivery performance" would not be solved by the discrete-event simulation study alone. The case shows how the qualitative outcomes of the discrete-event simulation study led to an analysis using the system dynamics technique. The system dynamics technique was able to model the decision-makers in the sales and production process and provide a deeper understanding of the performance of the system. Research limitations/implications - The case study describes a traditional discrete-event simulation study which incorporated an unplanned investigation using system dynamics. Further, case studies using a planned approach to showing consideration of organizational issues in discrete-event simulation studies are required. Then the role of both qualitative data in a discrete-event simulation study and the use of supplementary tools which incorporate organizational aspects may help generate a methodology for discrete-event simulation that incorporates human aspects and so improve its relevance for decision making. Practical implications - It is argued that system dynamics can provide a useful addition to the toolkit of the discrete-event simulation practitioner in helping them incorporate a human aspect in their analysis. Originality/value - Helps decision makers gain a broader perspective on the tools available to them by showing the use of system dynamics to supplement the use of discrete-event simulation. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

The influence of memory in a threshold model for distributed task assignment

A nature inspired decentralised multi-agent algorithm is proposed to solve a problem of distributed task selection in which cities produce and store batches of different mail types. Agents must collect and process the mail batches, without a priori knowledge of the available mail at the cities or inter-agent communication. In order to process a different mail type than the previous one, agents must undergo a change-over during which it remains inactive. We propose a threshold based algorithm in order to maximise the overall efficiency (the average amount of mail collected). We show that memory, i.e. the possibility for agents to develop preferences for certain cities, not only leads to emergent cooperation between agents, but also to a significant increase in efficiency (above the theoretical upper limit for any memoryless algorithm), and we systematically investigate the influence of the various model parameters. Finally, we demonstrate the flexibility of the algorithm to changes in circumstances, and its excellent scalability.

Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.

A methodology for the generation and evaluation of biorefinery process chains, in order to identify the most promising biorefineries for the EU

The topic of bioenergy, biofuels and bioproducts remains at the top of the current political and research agenda. Identification of the optimum processing routes for biomass, in terms of efficiency, cost, environment and socio-economics is vital as concern grows over the remaining fossil fuel resources, climate change and energy security. It is known that the only renewable way of producing conventional hydrocarbon fuels and organic chemicals is from biomass, but the problem remains of identifying the best product mix and the most efficient way of processing biomass to products. The aim is to move Europe towards a biobased economy and it is widely accepted that biorefineries are key to this development. A methodology was required for the generation and evaluation of biorefinery process chains for converting biomass into one or more valuable products that properly considers performance, cost, environment, socio-economics and other factors that influence the commercial viability of a process. In this thesis a methodology to achieve this objective is described. The completed methodology includes process chain generation, process modelling and subsequent analysis and comparison of results in order to evaluate alternative process routes. A modular structure was chosen to allow greater flexibility and allowing the user to generate a large number of different biorefinery configurations The significance of the approach is that the methodology is defined and is thus rigorous and consistent and may be readily re-examined if circumstances change. There was the requirement for consistency in structure and use, particularly for multiple analyses. It was important that analyses could be quickly and easily carried out to consider, for example, different scales, configurations and product portfolios and so that previous outcomes could be readily reconsidered. The result of the completed methodology is the identification of the most promising biorefinery chains from those considered as part of the European Biosynergy Project.

Sparse representation for Gaussian process models

We develop an approach for a sparse representation for Gaussian Process (GP) models in order to overcome the limitations of GPs caused by large data sets. The method is based on a combination of a Bayesian online algorithm together with a sequential construction of a relevant subsample of the data which fully specifies the prediction of the model. Experimental results on toy examples and large real-world datasets indicate the efficiency of the approach.

The Japanisation process in Malaysia

This thesis examines the empirical evidence for the transferability of Japanese soft technology (JST) or Japanese work organisation within two government-initiated, Malaysian-Japanese strategic alliances: PROTON and PERNEC. The government, through its Look East Policy (LEP) began in 1982, taking Japan (and South Korea) as models and partners in Malaysian economic and industrial development process, and expected these alliances to learn the good aspects of Japanese work organisations and management styles in order for them to become independent companies, both technologically and economically. The thesis found that the alliances have been successfully taking and utilising Japanese parts, components, tools, robots and machines; i.e. the 'ready-made hard technology'. [Whereas the important element of soft technology has been ignored]. The soft technology has been slowly and marginally transferred because neither local parties nor their Japanese counterparts within the alliances consider the acquisition or transfer of soft technology to be the main concern or a part of business plan. Although many factors influence management transfer, the thesis has focused on the eagerness and the capability of Malaysian managerial teams to acquire and, to a lesser extent, the readiness of the Japanese to transfer the technology. It was found that there is a lack of demand on technology acquisition by Malaysian managers and lack of responsibility to transfer the technology among Japanese experts. However, the political and social pressures on these alliances, the industrial climate and labour market, leaderships and management system of alliances, and Japanese MNCs regional and global corporate strategies have contributed to the high level of transfer of JST at PROTON compared to PERNEC. The research also found that Malaysian industrial and investment policies have favoured foreign investment but there is a lack of strategies for nurturing indigenous technological development.On the other hand the Japanese MNCs and public agencies have been operating in Malaysia and guided by their regional and global corporate strategies and less concerned with Malaysian technological development. In conclusion, empirically, the JST transfer is minimal. The transfer has been influenced by internal contingency factors of organisation; external industrial, political and cultural environmental factors; and last but not least the Japanese MNCs' global and regional corporate strategies. The transfer of Japanese management in this research is inclined towards core-periphery transfer model, it is also related to organisational and national technological capability.

Achieving internal process benchmarking:guidance from BASF

Purpose - The purpose of the work discussed in this paper is to understand, analyse and benchmark the "Packing and Filling" processes within BASF. A benchmarking project is described in detail which aimed to cover sites in different countries that supplied many different variants of finished goods in order to establish best practice and then to generate some options for their implementation. Design/methodology/approach - The project used an adaptation of accepted benchmarking methodology combined with other techniques (such as rich picture generation, and cluster analysis) to maximise the insight generated. Findings - The findings of the research showed that one of the main factors effecting the process was how third parties were used (e.g. extent and nature of out-sourcing, and its degree of centralisation). Research limitations/ implications - The exercise was challenged by the selection of suitably similar benchmarking candidates because the environment was complex and highly varied; the paper explains practical solutions for dealing with this challenge. Practical limitations - Strategic and tactical options are outlined at the end of the paper and will have applicability to other organisations and industries that are looking to find the answers to frequently asked questions about how to successfully implement an internal process benchmarking project in a large complex organisation that has high variety in end products and delivery methods. Originality/value - The methodology described in this paper is of a proprietary and unique nature. The paper is structured around some key questions commonly asked of benchmarking, and the answers are provided via a real in-depth case study from BASF that spans 4 sites in 3 countries using 15 different filling lines. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Managing healthcare quality using combined SWOT and the analytic process

Improving healthcare quality is a growing need of any society. Although various quality improvement projects are routinely deployed by the healthcare professional, they are characterised by a fragmented approach, i.e. they are not linked with the strategic intent of the organisation. This study introduces a framework which integrates all quality improvement projects with the strategic intent of the organisation. It first derives the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) matrix of the system with the involvement of the concerned stakeholders (clinical professional), which helps identify a few projects, the implementation of which ensures achievement of desired quality. The projects are then prioritised using the analytic hierarchy process with the involvement of the concerned stakeholders (clinical professionals) and implemented in order to improve system performance. The effectiveness of the method has been demonstrated using a case study in the intensive care unit of Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Bridgetown, Barbados.

Using business process simulation within a business process reengineering approach

This paper presents a case study of the use of business-process simulation within the context of a business-process-reengineering approach to change. The process-based change methodology provides context to the simulation technique in that it connects the aims of a business-process simulation (BPS) study to the strategic aims of the organisation and incorporates a consideration of human factors in order to achieve successful implementation of redesigned processes. Conversely, the ability of BPS to incorporate system variability, scenario analysis and a visual display to communicate process performance makes it a useful technique to provide a realistic assessment of the need for, and results of, change.

Development of a co-operative distributed process mining system for quality assurance

In this paper, a co-operative distributed process mining system (CDPMS) is developed to streamline the workflow along the supply chain in order to offer shorter delivery times, more flexibility and higher customer satisfaction with learning ability. The proposed system is equipped with the ‘distributed process mining’ feature which is used to discover the hidden relationships among each working decision in distributed manner. This method incorporates the concept of data mining and knowledge refinement into decision making process for ensuring ‘doing the right things’ within the workflow. An example of implementation is given, based on the case of slider manufacturer.

A genetic algorithm to optimise the component placement process in the PCB assembly

In printed circuit board (PCB) assembly, the efficiency of the component placement process is dependent on two interrelated issues: the sequence of component placement, that is, the component sequencing problem, and the assignment of component types to feeders of the placement machine, that is, the feeder arrangement problem. In cases where some components with the same type are assigned to more than one feeder, the component retrieval problem should also be considered. Due to their inseparable relationship, a hybrid genetic algorithm is adopted to solve these three problems simultaneously for a type of PCB placement machines called the sequential pick-and-place (PAP) machine in this paper. The objective is to minimise the total distance travelled by the placement head for assembling all components on a PCB. Besides, the algorithm is compared with the methods proposed by other researchers in order to examine its effectiveness and efficiency.

Chemical kinetic investigation of a commercial batch reactor process

The aim of this investigation was to study the chemical reactions occurring during the batchwise production of a butylated melamine-formaldehyde resin, in order to optimise the efficiency and economics of the batch processes. The batch process models are largely empirical in nature as the reaction mechanism is unknown. The process chemistry and the commercial manufacturing method are described. A small scale system was established in glass and the ability to produce laboratory resins with the required quality was demonstrated, simulating the full scale plant. During further experiments the chemical reactions of methylolation, condensation and butylation were studied. The important process stages were identified and studied separately. The effects of variation of certain process parameters on the chemical reactions were also studied. A published model of methylolation was modified and used to simulate the methylolation stage. A major result of this project was the development of an indirect method for studying the condensation and butylation reactions occurring during the dehydration and acid reaction stages, as direct quantitative methods were not available. A mass balance method was devised for this purpose and used to collect experimental data. The reaction scheme was verified using this data. The reactions stages were simulated using an empirical model. This has revealed new information regarding the mechanism and kinetics of the reactions. Laboratory results were shown to be comparable with plant scale results. This work has improved the understanding of the batch process, which can be used to improve product consistency. Future work has been identified and recommended to produce an optimum process and plant design to reduce the batch time.

The mechanics of the conform continuous extrusion process

The work describes the programme of activities relating to a mechanical study of the Conform extrusion process. The main objective was to provide a basic understanding of the mechanics of the Conform process with particular emphasis placed on modelling using experimental and theoretical considerations. The experimental equipment used includes a state of the art computer-aided data-logging system and high temperature loadcells (up to 260oC) manufactured from tungsten carbide. Full details of the experimental equipment is presented in sections 3 and 4. A theoretical model is given in Section 5. The model presented is based on the upper bound theorem using a variation of the existing extrusion theories combined with temperature changes in the feed metal across the deformation zone. In addition, constitutive equations used in the model have been generated from existing experimental data. Theoretical and experimental data are presented in tabular form in Section 6. The discussion of results includes a comprehensive graphical presentation of the experimental and theoretical data. The main findings are: (i) the establishment of stress/strain relationships and an energy balance in order to study the factors affecting redundant work, and hence a model suitable for design purposes; (ii) optimisation of the process, by determination of the extrusion pressure for the range of reduction and changes in the extrusion chamber geometry at lower wheel speeds; and (iii) an understanding of the control of the peak temperature reach during extrusion.

Point-by-point inscription of first-order fiber Bragg grating for C-band applications

The influence of the fiber geometry on the point-by-point inscription of fiber Bragg gratings using a femtosecond laser is highlighted. Fiber Bragg gratings with high spectral quality and strong first-order Bragg resonances within the C-band are achieved by optimizing the inscription process. Large birefringence (1.2×10-4) and high degree of polarizationdependent index modulation are observed in these gratings. Potential applications of these gratings in resonators are further illustrated.