Developing a categorisation system for rapists' speech

Case linkage, the linking of crimes into series, is used in policing in the UK and other countries. Previous researchers have proposed using rapists' speech in this practice; however, researching this application requires the development of a reliable coding system for rapists' speech. A system was developed based on linguistic theories of pragmatics which allowed for the categorization of an utterance into a speech act type (e.g. directive). Following this classification, the qualitative properties of the utterances (e.g. the degree of threat it carried) could be captured through the use of rating scales. This system was tested against a previously developed system using 188 rapists' utterances taken from victims' descriptions of rape. The pragmatics-based system demonstrated higher inter-rater reliability whilst enabling the classification of a greater number of rapists' utterances. Inter-rater reliability for the subscales was also tested using a sub-sample of 50 rapists' utterances and inter-item correlations were calculated. Seventy-six per cent of the subscales had satisfactory to high inter-rater reliability. Based on these findings and the inter-item correlations, the classification system was revised. The potential use of this system for the practices of case linkage and offender profiling is discussed.

From marine ecology to crime analysis: improving the detection of serial sexual offences using a taxonomic similarity measure

Jaccard has been the choice similarity metric in ecology and forensic psychology for comparison of sites or offences, by species or behaviour. This paper applies a more powerful hierarchical measure - taxonomic similarity (s), recently developed in marine ecology - to the task of behaviourally linking serial crime. Forensic case linkage attempts to identify behaviourally similar offences committed by the same unknown perpetrator (called linked offences). s considers progressively higher-level taxa, such that two sites show some similarity even without shared species. We apply this index by analysing 55 specific offence behaviours classified hierarchically. The behaviours are taken from 16 sexual offences by seven juveniles where each offender committed two or more offences. We demonstrate that both Jaccard and s show linked offences to be significantly more similar than unlinked offences. With up to 20% of the specific behaviours removed in simulations, s is equally or more effective at distinguishing linked offences than where Jaccard uses a full data set. Moreover, s retains significant difference between linked and unlinked pairs, with up to 50% of the specific behaviours removed. As police decision-making often depends upon incomplete data, s has clear advantages and its application may extend to other crime types. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data

The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders.

Triangulation mobility of auto-theft offenders

This research paper presents an examination of the journey to and from crime for autotheft offenders in the UK. For 852 offences, ‘wheel’ distances are calculated for triangles formed by offenders’ home location, theft location, and vehicle disposal location. The study demonstrates typical isosceles mobility triangles; distances travelled to and from home locations are roughly equal, whereas distances between theft and disposal points were shorter. Distances travelled by offenders under 17 years old and offences involving drug and drink were shown to be shorter than comparison groups. Prolifi c offenders tend to travel further, although there is signifi cant variation in this subgroup. Explanations and implications are discussed.