Raising the bar for systematic conservation planning

Mathematical methods in systematic conservation planning (SCP) represent a significant step toward cost-effective, transparent allocation of resources for biodiversity conservation. However, research demonstrates important consequences of uncertainties in SCP. Current research often relies on simplified case studies with unknown forms and amounts of uncertainty and low statistical power for generalizing results. Consequently, conservation managers have little evidence for the true performance of conservation planning methods in their own complex, uncertain applications. SCP needs to build evidence for predictive models of error and robustness to multiple, simultaneous uncertainties across a wide range of problems of known complexity. Only then can we determine true performance rather than how a method appears to perform on data with unknown uncertainty.

Testing competing HRM-performance linkage models:evidence from the Greek manufacturing sector

This paper proposes an integrative framework for the conduct of a more thorough and robust analysis regarding the linkage between Human Resource Management (HRM) and business performance. In order to provide the required basis for the proposed framework, initially, the core aspects of the main HRM models predicting business performance are analysed. The framework proposes both the principle of mediation (i.e. HRM outcomes mediate the relationship between organisational strategies and business performance) and the perspective of simultaneity of decision-making by firms with regard to the consideration of business strategies and HRM policies. In order to empirically test this framework the methodological approach of 'structural equation models' is employed. The empirical research is based on a sample of 178 organisations operating in the Greek manufacturing sector. The paper concludes that both the mediation principle and the simultaneity perspective are supported, emphasising further the positive role of HRM outcomes towards organisational performance.

Probabilistic multiple model neural network based leak detection system:experimental study

This paper presents an effective decision making system for leak detection based on multiple generalized linear models and clustering techniques. The training data for the proposed decision system is obtained by setting up an experimental pipeline fully operational distribution system. The system is also equipped with data logging for three variables; namely, inlet pressure, outlet pressure, and outlet flow. The experimental setup is designed such that multi-operational conditions of the distribution system, including multi pressure and multi flow can be obtained. We then statistically tested and showed that pressure and flow variables can be used as signature of leak under the designed multi-operational conditions. It is then shown that the detection of leakages based on the training and testing of the proposed multi model decision system with pre data clustering, under multi operational conditions produces better recognition rates in comparison to the training based on the single model approach. This decision system is then equipped with the estimation of confidence limits and a method is proposed for using these confidence limits for obtaining more robust leakage recognition results.

Towards understanding IT value co-creation in crowdsourcing:the multiple stakeholders' perspective research-in-progress paper

Contemporary business environment involves IT being invested and shared by multiple stakeholders in collaborative, platform-based, and relational arrangements where the objective is to co-create value. Traditional IT enabled business value therefore has been extended towards IT value co-creation that involves multiple stakeholders. In this paper, we present a conceptual development of IT-based value co-creation in the context of online crowdsourcing. Based on the existing literature, we have distinguished multiple crowdsourcing types (models) by analyzing attributes of crowd, the roles of the client, the platform and the crowd that act as key stakeholders in the value co-creation process, and describe the major interactions between the main stakeholders. Our conceptual development is suggesting different combinations of value co-creation layers to be evident in different crowdsourcing models.

Applications of the behavioural homogeneity evaluation framework: the predictive ability of consumer involvement for international food market segmentation

This article proposes a framework of alternative international marketing strategies, based on the evaluation of intra- and inter-cultural behavioural homogeneity for market segmentation. The framework developed in this study provides a generic structure to behavioural homogeneity, proposing consumer involvement as a construct with unique predictive ability for international marketing strategy decisions. A model-based segmentation process, using structural equation models, is implemented to illustrate the application of the framework.

Expert systems for fault tree synthesis

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies on chemical process plants are very time consuming, and often tedious, tasks. The requirement for HAZOP studies is that a team of experts systematically analyse every conceivable process deviation, identifying possible causes and any hazards that may result. The systematic nature of the task, and the fact that some team members may be unoccupied for much of the time, can lead to tedium, which in turn may lead to serious errors or omissions. An aid to HAZOP are fault trees, which present the system failure logic graphically such that the study team can readily assimilate their findings. Fault trees are also useful to the identification of design weaknesses, and may additionally be used to estimate the likelihood of hazardous events occurring. The one drawback of fault trees is that they are difficult to generate by hand. This is because of the sheer size and complexity of modern process plants. The work in this thesis proposed a computer-based method to aid the development of fault trees for chemical process plants. The aim is to produce concise, structured fault trees that are easy for analysts to understand. Standard plant input-output equation models for major process units are modified such that they include ancillary units and pipework. This results in a reduction in the nodes required to represent a plant. Control loops and protective systems are modelled as operators which act on process variables. This modelling maintains the functionality of loops, making fault tree generation easier and improving the structure of the fault trees produced. A method, called event ordering, is proposed which allows the magnitude of deviations of controlled or measured variables to be defined in terms of the control loops and protective systems with which they are associated.

Epidemiology of myopia in a United Kingdom urban child population

The Aston Eye Study (AES) was instigated in October 2005 to determine the distribution of refractive error and associated ocular biometry in a sample of UK urban school children. The AES is the first study to compare outcome measures separately in White, South Asian and Black children. Children were selected from two age groups (Year 2 children aged 6/7 years, Year8 children aged 12/13 years of age) using random cluster sampling of schools in Birmingham, West Midlands UK. To date, the AES has examined 598 children (302 Year 2,296 Year 8). Using open-field cycloplegic autorefraction, the overall prevalence of myopia (=-0.50D SER in either eye) determined was 19.6%, with a higher prevalence in older (29.4%) compared to younger (9.9%) children (p<0.001). Using multiple logistic regression models, the risk of myopia was higher in Year 8 South Asian compared to White children and higher in children attending grammar schools relative to comprehensive schools. In addition, the prevalence of uncorrected ametropia was found to be high (Year 8: 12.84%, Year 2: 15.23%), which will be of concern to bodies responsible for the implementation of school vision screening strategies. Biometric data using non-contact partial coherence interferometry revealed a contributory effect of axial length (AL) and central corneal radius (CR) on myopic refraction, resulting in a strong coefficient of determination of the AL/CR ratio on refractive error. Ocular biometric measures did not vary significantly as a function of ethnicity, suggesting a greater miscorrelation of components in susceptible ethnic groups to account for their higher myopia prevalence. Corneal radius was found to be steeper in myopes in both age groups, but was found to flatten with increasing axial length. Due to the inextricable link between myopia and axial elongation, the paradoxical finding of the cornea demands further longitudinal investigation, particularly in relation to myopia onset. Questionnaire analysis revealed a history of myopia in parents and siblings to be significantly associated with myopia in Year 8 children, with a dose-dependent rise in the odds ratio of myopia evident with increasing number of myopic parents. By classifying socioeconomic status (SES) using Index of Multiple Deprivation values, it was found that Year 8 children from moderately deprived backgrounds were more at risk of myopia compared with children located at both extremities of the deprivation spectrum. However, the main effect of SES weakened following multivariate analysis, with South Asian ethnicity and grammar schooling remaining associated with Year 8 myopia after adjustment.

Premature cardiovascular events and mortality in south Asians with type 2 diabetes in the United Kingdom Asian Diabetes Study - effect of ethnicity on risk

Background/Aim - People of south Asian origin have an excessive risk of morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease. We examined the effect of ethnicity on known risk factors and analysed the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in UK south Asian and white Europeans patients with type 2 diabetes over a 2 year period. Methods - A total of 1486 south Asian (SA) and 492 white European (WE) subjects with type 2 diabetes were recruited from 25 general practices in Coventry and Birmingham, UK. Baseline data included clinical history, anthropometry and measurements of traditional risk factors – blood pressure, total cholesterol, HbA1c. Multiple linear regression models were used to examine ethnicity differences in individual risk factors. Ten-year cardiovascular risk was estimated using the Framingham and UKPDS equations. All subjects were followed up for 2 years. Cardiovascular events (CVD) and mortality between the two groups were compared. Findings - Significant differences were noted in risk profiles between both groups. After adjustment for clustering and confounding a significant ethnicity effect remained only for higher HbA1c (0.50 [0.22 to 0.77]; P?=?0.0004) and lower HDL (-0.09 [-0.17 to -0.01]; P?=?0.0266). Baseline CVD history was predictive of CVD events during follow-up for SA (P?

Comparative risk of microalbuminuria and proteinuria in UK residents of south Asian and white European ethnic background with type 2 diabetes:a report from UKADS

Objective - This study investigated and compared the prevalence of microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria and their determinants in a cohort of UK resident patients of white European or south Asian ethnicity with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Research design and methods - A total of 1978 patients, comprising 1486 of south Asian and 492 of white European ethnicity, in 25 general practices in Coventry and Birmingham inner city areas in England were studied in a cross-sectional study. Demographic and risk factor data were collected and presence of microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria assessed. Main outcome measures - Prevalences of microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria. Results - Urinary albumin:creatinine measurements were available for 1852 (94%) patients. The south Asian group had a lower prevalence of microalbuminuria, 19% vs. 23% and a higher prevalence of overt proteinuria, 8% vs. 3%, X2?=?15.85, 2df, P?=?0.0004. In multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for confounding factors, significantly increased risk for the south Asian vs. white European patients for overt proteinuria was shown; OR (95% CI) 2.17 (1.05, 4.49), P?=?0.0365. For microalbuminuria, an interaction effect for ethnicity and duration of diabetes suggested that risk for south Asian patients was lower in early years following diagnosis; OR for SA vs. WH at durations 0 and 1 year were 0.56 (0.37, 0.86) and 0.59 (0.39, 0.89) respectively. After 20 years’ duration, OR?=?1.40 (0.63, 3.08). Limitations - Comparability of ethnicity defined groups; statistical methods controlled for differences between groups, but residual confounding may remain. Analyses are based on a single measure of albumin:creatinine ratio. Conclusions - There were significant differences between ethnicity groups in risk factor profiles and microalbuminuria and overt proteinuria outcomes. Whilst south Asian patients had no excess risk of microalbuminuria, the risk of overt proteinuria was elevated significantly, which might be explained by faster progression of renal dysfunction in patients of south Asian ethnicity.

Influence of ethical beliefs, national culture and institutions on preferences for HRM in Oman

Purpose – The paper seeks to investigate the association between ethical beliefs, aspects of national culture and national institutions, and preferences for specific human resource management practices in the Sultanate of Oman. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 712 individuals working in six organisations (both private and public sectors) responded to a self-administered questionnaire in the Sultanate of Oman. To test the raised research questions of the proposed framework, the methodology of structural equation models was used. Findings – The results highlight significant differences in the belief systems on the basis of different demographic characteristics. The findings also confirm impact of ethical beliefs, and aspects of national culture and national institutions on preferences for human resource management (HRM) practices. Research limitations/implications – Although the goodness-of-fit indexes confirmed the validity of the proposed operational model, some indices were attained at rather flexible levels. Practical implications – Studies on managerial beliefs and values can offer important insights into the extent that work is viewed as an integral life activity. Such information can help differentiate among managerial styles in various cultures, and in predicting managerial behaviour such as ethical decision-making. Based on such understanding, the findings can be used to educate government officials and outside consultants interested in Oman. Originality/value – The study contributes to the accumulation of knowledge about under-researched developing countries such as Oman, as limited data are available on HRM, value orientations and ethical beliefs' issues in this region.

What drives the prediction of early reading? An analysis of stimulus and response-type

Purpose: Phonological accounts of reading implicate three aspects of phonological awareness tasks that underlie the relationship with reading; a) the language-based nature of the stimuli (words or nonwords), b) the verbal nature of the response, and c) the complexity of the stimuli (words can be segmented into units of speech). Yet, it is uncertain which task characteristics are most important as they are typically confounded. By systematically varying response-type and stimulus complexity across speech and non-speech stimuli, the current study seeks to isolate the characteristics of phonological awareness tasks that drive the prediction of early reading. Method: Four sets of tasks were created; tone stimuli (simple non-speech) requiring a non-verbal response, phonemes (simple speech) requiring a non-verbal response, phonemes requiring a verbal response, and nonwords (complex speech) requiring a verbal response. Tasks were administered to 570 2nd grade children along with standardized tests of reading and non-verbal IQ. Results: Three structural equation models comparing matched sets of tasks were built. Each model consisted of two 'task' factors with a direct link to a reading factor. The following factors predicted unique variance in reading: a) simple speech and non-speech stimuli, b) simple speech requiring a verbal response but not simple speech requiring a non-verbal-response, and c) complex and simple speech stimuli. Conclusions: Results suggest that the prediction of reading by phonological tasks is driven by the verbal nature of the response and not the complexity or 'speechness' of the stimuli. Findings highlight the importance of phonological output processes to early reading.

The role of illness perceptions:psychological distress and treatment seeking delay in patients with genital warts.

This study examined the relationships between illness perceptions, psychological distress and treatment-seeking delay in genital warts patients. Sixty-six genital warts patients were approached while attending a sexual health clinic. They completed a questionnaire assessing their illness perceptions, psychological distress and treatment-seeking delay. Negative perceptions of illness consequences and control and a perceived cyclical timeline were associated with increased psychological distress. Perceived illness consequences maintained significance in a multiple regression equation, which accounted for 25% variance in distress. Depression was associated with treatment-seeking delay (r = 0.28, P = 0.03). In conclusion, illness perceptions may play an important role in the experience of psychological distress in genital warts patients. The implications of these findings for the design of health-care interventions are discussed.

Variational mean-field algorithm for efficient inference in large systems of stochastic differential equations

This work introduces a Gaussian variational mean-field approximation for inference in dynamical systems which can be modeled by ordinary stochastic differential equations. This new approach allows one to express the variational free energy as a functional of the marginal moments of the approximating Gaussian process. A restriction of the moment equations to piecewise polynomial functions, over time, dramatically reduces the complexity of approximate inference for stochastic differential equation models and makes it comparable to that of discrete time hidden Markov models. The algorithm is demonstrated on state and parameter estimation for nonlinear problems with up to 1000 dimensional state vectors and compares the results empirically with various well-known inference methodologies.

Grouping and the pitch of a mistuned fundamental component:effects of applying simultaneous multiple mistunings to the other harmonics

Mistuning a harmonic produces an exaggerated change in its pitch. This occurs because the component becomes inconsistent with the regular pattern that causes the other harmonics (constituting the spectral frame) to integrate perceptually. These pitch shifts were measured when the fundamental (F0) component of a complex tone (nominal F0 frequency = 200 Hz) was mistuned by +8% and -8%. The pitch-shift gradient was defined as the difference between these values and its magnitude was used as a measure of frame integration. An independent and random perturbation (spectral jitter) was applied simultaneously to most or all of the frame components. The gradient magnitude declined gradually as the degree of jitter increased from 0% to ±40% of F0. The component adjacent to the mistuned target made the largest contribution to the gradient, but more distant components also contributed. The stimuli were passed through an auditory model, and the exponential height of the F0-period peak in the averaged summary autocorrelation function correlated well with the gradient magnitude. The fit improved when the weighting on more distant channels was attenuated by a factor of three per octave. The results are consistent with a grouping mechanism that computes a weighted average of periodicity strength across several components. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simple, sensitive and selective quantum-dot-based western blot method for the simultaneous detection of multiple targets from cell lysates

Quantum dots (Qdots) are fluorescent nanoparticles that have great potential as detection agents in biological applications. Their optical properties, including photostability and narrow, symmetrical emission bands with large Stokes shifts, and the potential for multiplexing of many different colours, give them significant advantages over traditionally used fluorescent dyes. Here, we report the straightforward generation of stable, covalent quantum dot-protein A/G bioconjugates that will be able to bind to almost any IgG antibody, and therefore can be used in many applications. An additional advantage is that the requirement for a secondary antibody is removed, simplifying experimental design. To demonstrate their use, we show their application in multiplexed western blotting. The sensitivity of Qdot conjugates is found to be superior to fluorescent dyes, and comparable to, or potentially better than, enhanced chemiluminescence. We show a true biological validation using a four-colour multiplexed western blot against a complex cell lysate background, and have significantly improved previously reported non-specific binding of the Qdots to cellular proteins.