Data analysis methods in optometry Part 7: multiple linear regression

Multiple regression analysis is a complex statistical method with many potential uses. It has also become one of the most abused of all statistical procedures since anyone with a data base and suitable software can carry it out. An investigator should always have a clear hypothesis in mind before carrying out such a procedure and knowledge of the limitations of each aspect of the analysis. In addition, multiple regression is probably best used in an exploratory context, identifying variables that might profitably be examined by more detailed studies. Where there are many variables potentially influencing Y, they are likely to be intercorrelated and to account for relatively small amounts of the variance. Any analysis in which R squared is less than 50% should be suspect as probably not indicating the presence of significant variables. A further problem relates to sample size. It is often stated that the number of subjects or patients must be at least 5-10 times the number of variables included in the study.5 This advice should be taken only as a rough guide but it does indicate that the variables included should be selected with great care as inclusion of an obviously unimportant variable may have a significant impact on the sample size required.

Predicting class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) binders using multivariate statistics:comparison of discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression

The accurate in silico identification of T-cell epitopes is a critical step in the development of peptide-based vaccines, reagents, and diagnostics. It has a direct impact on the success of subsequent experimental work. Epitopes arise as a consequence of complex proteolytic processing within the cell. Prior to being recognized by T cells, an epitope is presented on the cell surface as a complex with a major histocompatibility complex (MHC) protein. A prerequisite therefore for T-cell recognition is that an epitope is also a good MHC binder. Thus, T-cell epitope prediction overlaps strongly with the prediction of MHC binding. In the present study, we compare discriminant analysis and multiple linear regression as algorithmic engines for the definition of quantitative matrices for binding affinity prediction. We apply these methods to peptides which bind the well-studied human MHC allele HLA-A*0201. A matrix which results from combining results of the two methods proved powerfully predictive under cross-validation. The new matrix was also tested on an external set of 160 binders to HLA-A*0201; it was able to recognize 135 (84%) of them.

Data methods in optometry. Part 10: non-linear regression analysis

1. The techniques associated with regression, whether linear or non-linear, are some of the most useful statistical procedures that can be applied in clinical studies in optometry. 2. In some cases, there may be no scientific model of the relationship between X and Y that can be specified in advance and the objective may be to provide a ‘curve of best fit’ for predictive purposes. In such cases, the fitting of a general polynomial type curve may be the best approach. 3. An investigator may have a specific model in mind that relates Y to X and the data may provide a test of this hypothesis. Some of these curves can be reduced to a linear regression by transformation, e.g., the exponential and negative exponential decay curves. 4. In some circumstances, e.g., the asymptotic curve or logistic growth law, a more complex process of curve fitting involving non-linear estimation will be required.

Entry modes and performance of foreign direct investment in China

How does a firm choose a proper model of foreign direct investment (FDI) for entering a foreign market? Which mode of entry performs better? What are the performance implications of joint venture (JV) ownership structure? These important questions face a multinational enterprise (MNE) that decides to enter a foreign market. However, few studies have been conducted on such issues, and no consistent or conclusive findings are generated, especially with respect to China. It’s composed of five chapters, providing corresponding answers to the questions given above. Specifically, Chapter One is an overall introductory chapter. Chapter Two is about the choice of entry mode of FDI in China. Chapter Three examines the relationship between four main entry modes and performance. Chapter Four explores the performance implications of JV ownership structure. Chapter Five is an overall concluding chapter. These empirical studies are based on the most recent and richest data that has never been explored in previous studies. It contains information on 11,765 foreign-invested enterprises in China in seven manufacturing industries in 2000, 10,757 in 1999, and 10,666 in 1998. The four FDI entry modes examined include wholly-owned enterprises (WOEs), equity joint ventures (EJVs), contractual joint ventures (CJVs), and joint stock companies (JSCs). In Chapter Two, a multinominal logit model is established, and techniques of multiple linear regression analysis are employed in Chapter Three and Four. It was found that MNEs, under the conditions of a good investment environment, large capital commitment and small cultural distance, prefer the WOE strategy. If these conditions are not met, the EJV mode would be of greater use. The relative propensity to pursue the CJV mode increases with a good investment environment, small capital commitment, and small cultural distance. JSCs are not favoured by MNEs when the investment environment improves and when affiliates are located in the coastal areas. MNEs have been found to have a greater preference for an EJV as a mode of entry into the Chinese market in all industries. It is also found that in terms of return on assets (ROA) and asset turnover, WOEs perform the best, followed by EJVs, CJVs, and JSCs. Finally, minority-owned EJVs or JSCs are found to outperform their majority-owned counterparts in terms of ROA and asset turnover.

Applying Information Foraging Theory to understand user interaction with content-based image retrieval

The paper proposes an ISE (Information goal, Search strategy, Evaluation threshold) user classification model based on Information Foraging Theory for understanding user interaction with content-based image retrieval (CBIR). The proposed model is verified by a multiple linear regression analysis based on 50 users' interaction features collected from a task-based user study of interactive CBIR systems. To our best knowledge, this is the first principled user classification model in CBIR verified by a formal and systematic qualitative analysis of extensive user interaction data. Copyright 2010 ACM.

Psychological traits influence autonomic nervous system recovery following esophageal intubation in health and functional chest pain

Background: Esophageal intubation is a widely utilized technique for a diverse array of physiological studies, activating a complex physiological response mediated, in part, by the autonomic nervous system (ANS). In order to determine the optimal time period after intubation when physiological observations should be recorded, it is important to know the duration of, and factors that influence, this ANS response, in both health and disease. Methods: Fifty healthy subjects (27 males, median age 31.9 years, range 20-53 years) and 20 patients with Rome III defined functional chest pain (nine male, median age of 38.7 years, range 28-59 years) had personality traits and anxiety measured. Subjects had heart rate (HR), blood pressure (BP), sympathetic (cardiac sympathetic index, CSI), and parasympathetic nervous system (cardiac vagal tone, CVT) parameters measured at baseline and in response to per nasum intubation with an esophageal catheter. CSI/CVT recovery was measured following esophageal intubation. Key Results: In all subjects, esophageal intubation caused an elevation in HR, BP, CSI, and skin conductance response (SCR; all p < 0.0001) but concomitant CVT and cardiac sensitivity to the baroreflex (CSB) withdrawal (all p < 0.04). Multiple linear regression analysis demonstrated that longer CVT recovery times were independently associated with higher neuroticism (p < 0.001). Patients had prolonged CSI and CVT recovery times in comparison to healthy subjects (112.5 s vs 46.5 s, p = 0.0001 and 549 s vs 223.5 s, p = 0.0001, respectively). Conclusions & Inferences: Esophageal intubation activates a flight/flight ANS response. Future studies should allow for at least 10 min of recovery time. Consideration should be given to psychological traits and disease status as these can influence recovery. The psychological trait of neuroticism retards autonomic recovery following esophageal intubation in health and functional chest pain. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatial pattern analysis of beta-amyloid (A beta) deposits in Alzheimer disease by linear regression

The spatial patterns of discrete beta-amyloid (Abeta) deposits in brain tissue from patients with Alzheimer disease (AD) were studied using a statistical method based on linear regression, the results being compared with the more conventional variance/mean (V/M) method. Both methods suggested that Abeta deposits occurred in clusters (400 to <12,800 mu m in diameter) in all but 1 of the 42 tissues examined. In many tissues, a regular periodicity of the Abeta deposit clusters parallel to the tissue boundary was observed. In 23 of 42 (55%) tissues, the two methods revealed essentially the same spatial patterns of Abeta deposits; in 15 of 42 (36%), the regression method indicated the presence of clusters at a scale not revealed by the V/M method; and in 4 of 42 (9%), there was no agreement between the two methods. Perceived advantages of the regression method are that there is a greater probability of detecting clustering at multiple scales, the dimension of larger Abeta clusters can be estimated more accurately, and the spacing between the clusters may be estimated. However, both methods may be useful, with the regression method providing greater resolution and the V/M method providing greater simplicity and ease of interpretation. Estimates of the distance between regularly spaced Abeta clusters were in the range 2,200-11,800 mu m, depending on tissue and cluster size. The regular periodicity of Abeta deposit clusters in many tissues would be consistent with their development in relation to clusters of neurons that give rise to specific neuronal projections.

Mathematical modelling of patient risks in a hospital environment, using multiple regression analysis

The aim of this research work was primarily to examine the relevance of patient parameters, ward structures, procedures and practices, in respect of the potential hazards of wound cross-infection and nasal colonisation with multiple resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus, which it is thought might provide a useful indication of a patient's general susceptibility to wound infection. Information from a large cross-sectional survey involving 12,000 patients from some 41 hospitals and 375 wards was collected over a five-year period from 1967-72, and its validity checked before any subsequent analysis was carried out. Many environmental factors and procedures which had previously been thought (but never conclusively proved) to have an influence on wound infection or nasal colonisation rates, were assessed, and subsequently dismissed as not being significant, provided that the standard of the current range of practices and procedures is maintained and not allowed to deteriorate. Retrospective analysis revealed that the probability of wound infection was influenced by the patient's age, duration of pre-operative hospitalisation, sex, type of wound, presence and type of drain, number of patients in ward, and other special risk factors, whilst nasal colonisation was found to be influenced by the patient's age, total duration of hospitalisation, sex, antibiotics, proportion of occupied beds in the ward, average distance between bed centres and special risk factors. A multi-variate regression analysis technique was used to develop statistical models, consisting of variable patient and environmental factors which were found to have a significant influence on the risks pertaining to wound infection and nasal colonisation. A relationship between wound infection and nasal colonisation was then established and this led to the development of a more advanced model for predicting wound infections, taking advantage of the additional knowledge of the patient's state of nasal colonisation prior to operation.

Statnote 24: Multiple regression

In previous statnotes, the application of correlation and regression methods to the analysis of two variables (X,Y) was described. These methods can be used to determine whether there is a linear relationship between the two variables, whether the relationship is positive or negative, to test the degree of significance of the linear relationship, and to obtain an equation relating Y to X. This Statnote extends the methods of linear correlation and regression to situations where there are two or more X variables, i.e., 'multiple linear regression’.

Statnote 27: Principal components analysis (PCA)

In Statnotes 24 and 25, multiple linear regression, a statistical method that examines the relationship between a single dependent variable (Y) and two or more independent variables (X), was described. The principle objective of such an analysis was to determine which of the X variables had a significant influence on Y and to construct an equation that predicts Y from the X variables. ‘Principal components analysis’ (PCA) and ‘factor analysis’ (FA) are also methods of examining the relationships between different variables but they differ from multiple regression in that no distinction is made between the dependent and independent variables, all variables being essentially treated the same. Originally, PCA and FA were regarded as distinct methods but in recent times they have been combined into a single analysis, PCA often being the first stage of a FA. The basic objective of a PCA/FA is to examine the relationships between the variables or the ‘structure’ of the variables and to determine whether these relationships can be explained by a smaller number of ‘factors’. This statnote describes the use of PCA/FA in the analysis of the differences between the DNA profiles of different MRSA strains introduced in Statnote 26.

Statistical analysis in microbiology:statnotes

This book is aimed primarily at microbiologists who are undertaking research and who require a basic knowledge of statistics to analyse their experimental data. Computer software employing a wide range of data analysis methods is widely available to experimental scientists. The availability of this software, however, makes it essential that investigators understand the basic principles of statistics. Statistical analysis of data can be complex with many different methods of approach, each of which applies in a particular experimental circumstance. Hence, it is possible to apply an incorrect statistical method to data and to draw the wrong conclusions from an experiment. The purpose of this book, which has its origin in a series of articles published in the Society for Applied Microbiology journal ‘The Microbiologist’, is an attempt to present the basic logic of statistics as clearly as possible and therefore, to dispel some of the myths that often surround the subject. The 28 ‘Statnotes’ deal with various topics that are likely to be encountered, including the nature of variables, the comparison of means of two or more groups, non-parametric statistics, analysis of variance, correlating variables, and more complex methods such as multiple linear regression and principal components analysis. In each case, the relevant statistical method is illustrated with examples drawn from experiments in microbiological research. The text incorporates a glossary of the most commonly used statistical terms and there are two appendices designed to aid the investigator in the selection of the most appropriate test.

Regression analysis of ranked segment parameters for optic nerve head classification:a pilot study

Purpose: To determine whether curve-fitting analysis of the ranked segment distributions of topographic optic nerve head (ONH) parameters, derived using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph (HRT), provide a more effective statistical descriptor to differentiate the normal from the glaucomatous ONH. Methods: The sample comprised of 22 normal control subjects (mean age 66.9 years; S.D. 7.8) and 22 glaucoma patients (mean age 72.1 years; S.D. 6.9) confirmed by reproducible visual field defects on the Humphrey Field Analyser. Three 10°-images of the ONH were obtained using the HRT. The mean topography image was determined and the HRT software was used to calculate the rim volume, rim area to disc area ratio, normalised rim area to disc area ratio and retinal nerve fibre cross-sectional area for each patient at 10°-sectoral intervals. The values were ranked in descending order, and each ranked-segment curve of ordered values was fitted using the least squares method. Results: There was no difference in disc area between the groups. The group mean cup-disc area ratio was significantly lower in the normal group (0.204 ± 0.16) compared with the glaucoma group (0.533 ± 0.083) (p < 0.001). The visual field indices, mean deviation and corrected pattern S.D., were significantly greater (p < 0.001) in the glaucoma group (-9.09 dB ± 3.3 and 7.91 ± 3.4, respectively) compared with the normal group (-0.15 dB ± 0.9 and 0.95 dB ± 0.8, respectively). Univariate linear regression provided the best overall fit to the ranked segment data. The equation parameters of the regression line manually applied to the normalised rim area-disc area and the rim area-disc area ratio data, correctly classified 100% of normal subjects and glaucoma patients. In this study sample, the regression analysis of ranked segment parameters method was more effective than conventional ranked segment analysis, in which glaucoma patients were misclassified in approximately 50% of cases. Further investigation in larger samples will enable the calculation of confidence intervals for normality. These reference standards will then need to be investigated for an independent sample to fully validate the technique. Conclusions: Using a curve-fitting approach to fit ranked segment curves retains information relating to the topographic nature of neural loss. Such methodology appears to overcome some of the deficiencies of conventional ranked segment analysis, and subject to validation in larger scale studies, may potentially be of clinical utility for detecting and monitoring glaucomatous damage. © 2007 The College of Optometrists.

An upper bound on the Bayesian error bars for generalized linear regression

In the Bayesian framework, predictions for a regression problem are expressed in terms of a distribution of output values. The mode of this distribution corresponds to the most probable output, while the uncertainty associated with the predictions can conveniently be expressed in terms of error bars. In this paper we consider the evaluation of error bars in the context of the class of generalized linear regression models. We provide insights into the dependence of the error bars on the location of the data points and we derive an upper bound on the true error bars in terms of the contributions from individual data points which are themselves easily evaluated.