Mathematical modelling of patient risks in a hospital environment, using multiple regression analysis

The aim of this research work was primarily to examine the relevance of patient parameters, ward structures, procedures and practices, in respect of the potential hazards of wound cross-infection and nasal colonisation with multiple resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus, which it is thought might provide a useful indication of a patient's general susceptibility to wound infection. Information from a large cross-sectional survey involving 12,000 patients from some 41 hospitals and 375 wards was collected over a five-year period from 1967-72, and its validity checked before any subsequent analysis was carried out. Many environmental factors and procedures which had previously been thought (but never conclusively proved) to have an influence on wound infection or nasal colonisation rates, were assessed, and subsequently dismissed as not being significant, provided that the standard of the current range of practices and procedures is maintained and not allowed to deteriorate. Retrospective analysis revealed that the probability of wound infection was influenced by the patient's age, duration of pre-operative hospitalisation, sex, type of wound, presence and type of drain, number of patients in ward, and other special risk factors, whilst nasal colonisation was found to be influenced by the patient's age, total duration of hospitalisation, sex, antibiotics, proportion of occupied beds in the ward, average distance between bed centres and special risk factors. A multi-variate regression analysis technique was used to develop statistical models, consisting of variable patient and environmental factors which were found to have a significant influence on the risks pertaining to wound infection and nasal colonisation. A relationship between wound infection and nasal colonisation was then established and this led to the development of a more advanced model for predicting wound infections, taking advantage of the additional knowledge of the patient's state of nasal colonisation prior to operation.

A peak-clustering method for MEG group analysis to minimise artefacts due to smoothness

Magnetoencephalography (MEG), a non-invasive technique for characterizing brain electrical activity, is gaining popularity as a tool for assessing group-level differences between experimental conditions. One method for assessing task-condition effects involves beamforming, where a weighted sum of field measurements is used to tune activity on a voxel-by-voxel basis. However, this method has been shown to produce inhomogeneous smoothness differences as a function of signal-to-noise across a volumetric image, which can then produce false positives at the group level. Here we describe a novel method for group-level analysis with MEG beamformer images that utilizes the peak locations within each participant's volumetric image to assess group-level effects. We compared our peak-clustering algorithm with SnPM using simulated data. We found that our method was immune to artefactual group effects that can arise as a result of inhomogeneous smoothness differences across a volumetric image. We also used our peak-clustering algorithm on experimental data and found that regions were identified that corresponded with task-related regions identified in the literature. These findings suggest that our technique is a robust method for group-level analysis with MEG beamformer images.

Data analysis methods in optometry Part 7: multiple linear regression

Multiple regression analysis is a complex statistical method with many potential uses. It has also become one of the most abused of all statistical procedures since anyone with a data base and suitable software can carry it out. An investigator should always have a clear hypothesis in mind before carrying out such a procedure and knowledge of the limitations of each aspect of the analysis. In addition, multiple regression is probably best used in an exploratory context, identifying variables that might profitably be examined by more detailed studies. Where there are many variables potentially influencing Y, they are likely to be intercorrelated and to account for relatively small amounts of the variance. Any analysis in which R squared is less than 50% should be suspect as probably not indicating the presence of significant variables. A further problem relates to sample size. It is often stated that the number of subjects or patients must be at least 5-10 times the number of variables included in the study.5 This advice should be taken only as a rough guide but it does indicate that the variables included should be selected with great care as inclusion of an obviously unimportant variable may have a significant impact on the sample size required.

Probing three-way interactions in moderated multiple regression:Development and application of a slope difference test

Researchers often use 3-way interactions in moderated multiple regression analysis to test the joint effect of 3 independent variables on a dependent variable. However, further probing of significant interaction terms varies considerably and is sometimes error prone. The authors developed a significance test for slope differences in 3-way interactions and illustrate its importance for testing psychological hypotheses. Monte Carlo simulations revealed that sample size, magnitude of the slope difference, and data reliability affected test power. Application of the test to published data yielded detection of some slope differences that were undetected by alternative probing techniques and led to changes of results and conclusions. The authors conclude by discussing the test's applicability for psychological research. Copyright 2006 by the American Psychological Association.

Marketing strategy : making sense of industry dynamics:is there still value in strategic group research?

This paper looks selectively at strategic group theory and seeks to explore the benefits and limitations of modern strategic group analysis within the context of practical strategy making in the pharmaceutical industry. The rise and fall of strategic group research is reviewed and suggestions advanced as to the reasons why strategic group research suffered criticism and frequently produced conflicting results. The paper concludes that strategic group research offers a valuable way to classify firms by their strategy and provides some suggestions as to how industry strategists may benefit from strategic group analysis and avoid the pitfalls exposed by previous research.

Statnote 29:discriminant analysis

Discriminant analysis (also known as discriminant function analysis or multiple discriminant analysis) is a multivariate statistical method of testing the degree to which two or more populations may overlap with each other. It was devised independently by several statisticians including Fisher, Mahalanobis, and Hotelling ). The technique has several possible applications in Microbiology. First, in a clinical microbiological setting, if two different infectious diseases were defined by a number of clinical and pathological variables, it may be useful to decide which measurements were the most effective at distinguishing between the two diseases. Second, in an environmental microbiological setting, the technique could be used to study the relationships between different populations, e.g., to what extent do the properties of soils in which the bacterium Azotobacter is found differ from those in which it is absent? Third, the method can be used as a multivariate ‘t’ test , i.e., given a number of related measurements on two groups, the analysis can provide a single test of the hypothesis that the two populations have the same means for all the variables studied. This statnote describes one of the most popular applications of discriminant analysis in identifying the descriptive variables that can distinguish between two populations.

Is there still value in strategic group research?

This paper offers a selected review of strategic group theory and seeks to explore the benefits and limitations of modern strategic group analysis within the context of the Pharmaceutical Industry. The rise and fall of strategic group research is reviewed and some suggestions advanced as to the reasons why strategic group research has often produced conflicting results, particularly with regard to the link between group membership and performance. The review concludes that strategic group research continues to offer a valuable way to classify firms by their strategy and provides some suggestions as to how future studies may avoid the pitfalls exposed by previous research.

Community pharmacist perceptions of the loss of resale price maintenance

Focal points: This study was designed to elicit the views of community pharmacists on any perceived business and professional changes following the loss of resale price maintenance (RPM)A piloted, 22-point self-completion questionnaire containing open, closed and scaled response questions was distributed to 35 independent (<10 stores), 13 multiple group and three supermarket-based pharmacies, and 40 responses were obtained (29 independent, eight multiple and three supermarket)Theme analysis indicated that 20 respondents felt that an increased range of services was now provided, 27 reported a decreased sales potential and 25 thought that patients now purchased more medicinesThe average price at which eight common over-the-counter medicines were offered was found to be £4.34 in independents, £4.37 in multiples and £4.22 in the supermarket pharmacies, compared with an average standard list price of £4.32There are indications that removal of RPM may have instigated changes in community pharmacy

Ocular and systemic markers for vascular function in those at risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease

The devastating impact of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) -related morbidity and mortality on global healthcare is escalating with higher prevalences of obesity, poor diet, and sedentary lifestyles. Therefore, the clinical need for early diagnosis and prevention in groups of high-risk individuals is necessary. The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the use of surrogate markers, namely retinal vascular function, to determine future vascular endothelial dysfunction, atherosclerosis, large vessel disease and cardiovascular risk in certain groups. This namely covered normoglycaemic and normotensive South Asians (SAs), those with Impaired-Glucose Tolerance (IGT) and individuals with a familial history (FH) of T2DM. Additionally the effect of overweight and obesity was studied. The techniques and modified protocols adopted for this thesis involved the investigation of endothelial function by means of vascular reactivity at the ocular and systemic level. Furthermore, the relationships between retinal and systemic function with circulating markers for endothelial cell function and cardiovascular risk markers were explored. The principal studies and findings of the research were: Vascular Function in Normoglycaemic Individuals with and without a FH of T2DM WE FH individuals exhibited higher levels of total cholesterol levels that correlated well with the retinal arterial dilation amplitude to flicker light stimulus. However this did not extend to noticeable differences in markers for endothelial cell damage and impaired retinal and systemic function. Vascular Function in Normoglycaemic South-Asians vs. White-Europeans without a FH and Vascular Disturbances Compared to healthy WEs (normo -glycaemic and -tensive), SA participants exhibited levels of dyslipidaemia and a state of oxidative stress that extended to impaired vascular function as detected by reduced brachial artery flow-mediated dilation, slower retinal arterial vessel dilation reaction times (Appendix 3) and steeper constriction profiles. Furthermore, gender sub-group analysis presented in a sub-chapter shows that SA males demonstrated 24-hour systemic blood pressure (BP) and heart rate variability (HRV) abnormalities and heightened cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Vascular Function in Individuals Newly Diagnosed with IGT as compared to Normoglycaemic Healthy Controls Newly-diagnosed WE and SA IGT patients showed a greater risk for CVD and T2DM progression by means of 24-hour BP abnormalities, dyslipidaemia, increased carotid artery intimal-media thickness (c-IMT), Framingham scores and cholesterol ratios. Additionally, pre-clinical markers for oxidative stress and endothelial dysfunction, as evident by significantly lower levels of plasma glutathione and increased levels of von-Willebrand factor in IGT individuals, extended to impaired vascular systemic and retinal function compared to normal controls. This originally shows retinal, systemic and biochemical disturbances in newly-diagnosed IGT not previously reported before. Vascular Function in Normal, Overweight and Obese Individuals of SA and WE Ethnicity In addition to the intended study chapters, the thesis also investigated the influence of obesity and overweight on vascular function. Most importantly, it was found for the first time that compared to lean individuals it was overweight and not obese individuals that exhibited signs of vascular systemic and ocular dysfunction that was evident alongside markers of atherosclerosis, CVD risk and endothelial damage.

Correlation between visual function and visual ability in patients with uveitis

Aim: To investigate the correlation between tests of visual function and perceived visual ability recorded with a quality of life questionnaire for patients with uveitis. Methods: 132 patients with various types of uveitis were studied. High (monocular and binocular) and low (binocular) contrast logMAR letter acuities were recorded using a Bailey-Lovie chart. Contrast sensitivity (binocular) was determined using a Pelli-Robson chart. Vision related quality of life was assessed using the Vision Specific Quality of Life (VQOL) questionnaire. Results: VQOL declined with reduced performance on the following tests: binocular high contrast visual acuity (p = 0.0011), high contrast visual acuity of the better eye (p = 0.0012), contrast sensitivity (p = 0.005), binocular low contrast visual acuity (p = 0.0065), and high contrast visual acuity of the worse eye (p = 0.015). Stepwise multiple regression analysis revealed binocular high contrast visual acuity (p <0.01) to be the only visual function adequate to predict VQOL. The age of the patient was also significantly associated with perceived visual ability (p <0.001). Conclusions: Binocular high contrast visual acuity is a good measure of how uveitis patients perform in real life situations. Vision quality of life is worst in younger patients with poor binocular visual acuity.

The effect of corneal thickness and corneal curvature on pneumatonometer measurements

Purpose. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of corneal topography and thickness on intraocular pressure (IOP) and pulse amplitude (PA) as measured using the Ocular Blood Flow Analyzer (OBFA) pneumatonometer (Paradigm Medical Industries, Utah, USA). Methods. 47 university students volunteered for this cross-sectional study: mean age 20.4 yrs, range 18 to 28 yrs; 23 male, 24 female. Only the measurements from the right eye of each participant were used. Central corneal thickness and mean corneal radius were measured using Scheimpflug biometry and corneal topographic imaging respectively. IOP and PA measurements were made with the OBFA pneumatonometer. Axial length was measured using A-scan ultrasound, due to its known correlation with these corneal parameters. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to identify those components that contributed significant variance to the independent variables of IOP and PA. Results. The mean IOP and PA measurements were 13.1 (SD 3.3) mmHg and 3.0 (SD 1.2) mmHg respectively. IOP measurements made with the OBFA pneumatonometer correlated significantly with central corneal thickness (r = +0.374, p = 0.010), such that a 10 mm change in CCT was equivalent to a 0.30 mmHg change in measured IOP. PA measurements correlated significantly with axial length (part correlate = -0.651, p < 0.001) and mean corneal radius (part correlate = +0.459, p < 0.001) but not corneal thickness. Conclusions. IOP measurements taken with the OBFA pneumatonometer are correlated with corneal thickness, but not axial length or corneal curvature. Conversely, PA measurements are unaffected by corneal thickness, but correlated with axial length and corneal radius. These parameters should be taken into consideration when interpreting IOP and PA measurements made with the OBFA pneumatonometer.

Macular pigment optical density is related to blood glutathione levels in healthy individuals

Purpose. To assess the relationship between macular pigment optical density (MPOD) and blood markers for antioxidant defense in otherwise healthy volunteers. Methods. Forty-seven healthy volunteers were subjected to blood analysis to detect the level of circulating glutathione in its reduced (GSH) and oxidized (GSSG) forms. The level of MPOD was measured using heterochromatic flicker photometry. Systemic blood pressure (BP) parameters, heart rate (HR), body mass index (BMI), and plasma levels of total, HDL, and LDL cholesterol and triglycerides (TGs) were also determined. Results. A simple correlation model revealed that the level of MPOD correlated significantly and positively with both GSH (P < 0.001) and t-GSH (P < 0.001) levels but not with those of GSSG (P > 0.05). Age, sex, systemic BP parameters, HR, BMI, and plasma levels of cholesterol and TGs did not have any influence on either MPOD or glutathione levels (all P > 0.05). In addition, a forward stepwise multiple regression analysis showed MPOD to have a significantly and independent correlation with GSH levels (ß = 0.63; P < 0.001). Conclusions. In otherwise healthy older individuals, there is a positive correlation between local and systemic antioxidant defense mechanisms.

Alzheimer's disease: the relationship between the density of senile plaques, neurofibrillary tangles and A4 protein in human patients

The numerical density of senile plaques (SP) and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) as revealed by the Glees silver method was compared with SP and NFT revealed by the Gallyas method and with amyloid (A4) deposits in immunostained sections in 6 elderly cases of Alzheimer's disease. The density of NFT was generally greater and A4 lower in tissue from hippocampus compared with the neocortex suggesting that A4 deposition was less important than the degree of paired helical filament (PHF) related damage in the hippocampus. The density of Glees SP was positively correlated Gallyas SP weakly correlated with A4 deposit number. A stepwise multiple regression analysis which included A4 deposit and Gallyas SP density and accounted for 54% of the variation in Glees SP density. Hence, different populations of SP were revealed by the different staining methods. The results suggested that the Glees method may stain a population of SP in a region of cortex where both amyloid deposition and neurofibrillary changes have occurred.