Volatility changes in drachma exchange rates

In January 2001 Greece joined the eurozone. The aim of this article is to examine whether an intention to join the eurozone had any impact on exchange rate volatility. We apply the Iterated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) to a set of Greek drachma exchange rate changes. We find evidence to suggest that the unconditional volatility of the drachma exchange rate against the dollar, British pound, yen, German mark and ECU/Euro was nonstationary, exhibiting a large number of volatility changes prior to European Monetary Union (EMU) membership. We then use a news archive service to identify the events that might have caused exchange rate volatility to shift. We find that devaluation of the drachma increased exchange rate volatility but ERM membership and a commitment to joining the eurozone led to lower volatility. Our findings therefore suggest that a strong commitment to join the eurozone may be sufficient to reduce some exchange rate volatility which has implications for countries intending to join the eurozone in the future.

The microstructure of the Irish stock market

This is the first paper to examine the microstructure of the Irish Stock Market empirically and is motivated by the adoption, on June 7th of Xetra the modern pan European auction trading system. Prior to this the exchange utilized an antiquated floor based system. This change was an important event for the market as a rich literature exists to suggest that the trading system exerts a strong influence over the behavior of security returns. We apply the ICSS algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) to discover whether the change to the trading system caused a shift in unconditional volatility at the time Xetra was introduced. Because the trading mechanism can influence volatility in a number of ways we also estimate the partial adjustment coefficients of the Amihud and Mendelson (1987) model prior and subsequent to the introduction of Xetra. Although we find no evidence of volatility changes associated with the introduction of Xetra we do find evidence of an increase in the speed of adjustment (JEL: G15).

The microstructure of the foreign exchange market:the determinants of bid-ask spreads in the foreign exchange market

The purpose of this thesis is to shed more light in the FX market microstructure by examining the determinants of bid-ask spread for three currencies pairs, the US dollar/Japanese yen, the British pound/US dollar and the Euro/US dollar in different time zones. I examine the commonality in liquidity with the elaboration of FX market microstructure variables in financial centres across the world (New York, London, Tokyo) based on the quotes of three exchange rate currency pairs over a ten-year period. I use GARCH (1,1) specifications, ICSS algorithm, and vector autoregression analysis to examine the effect of trading activity, exchange rate volatility and inventory holding costs on both quoted and relative spreads. ICSS algorithm results show that intraday spread series are much less volatile compared to the intraday exchange rate series as the number of change points obtained from ICSS algorithm is considerably lower. GARCH (1,1) estimation results of daily and intraday bid-ask spreads, show that the explanatory variables work better when I use higher frequency data (intraday results) however, their explanatory power is significantly lower compared to the results based on the daily sample. This suggests that although daily spreads and intraday spreads have some common determinants there are other factors that determine the behaviour of spreads at high frequencies. VAR results show that there are some differences in the behaviour of the variables at high frequencies compared to the results from the daily sample. A shock in the number of quote revisions has more effect on the spread when short term trading intervals are considered (intra-day) compared to its own shocks. When longer trading intervals are considered (daily) then the shocks in the spread have more effect on the future spread. In other words, trading activity is more informative about the future spread when intra-day trading is considered while past spread is more informative about the future spread when daily trading is considered

Transparent heterogeneous terrestrial optical communication networks with phase modulated signals

This thesis presents a large scale numerical investigation of heterogeneous terrestrial optical communications systems and the upgrade of fourth generation terrestrial core to metro legacy interconnects to fifth generation transmission system technologies. Retrofitting (without changing infrastructure) is considered for commercial applications. ROADM are crucial enabling components for future core network developments however their re-routing ability means signals can be switched mid-link onto sub-optimally configured paths which raises new challenges in network management. System performance is determined by a trade-off between nonlinear impairments and noise, where the nonlinear signal distortions depend critically on deployed dispersion maps. This thesis presents a comprehensive numerical investigation into the implementation of phase modulated signals in transparent reconfigurable wavelength division multiplexed fibre optic communication terrestrial heterogeneous networks. A key issue during system upgrades is whether differential phase encoded modulation formats are compatible with the cost optimised dispersion schemes employed in current 10 Gb/s systems. We explore how robust transmission is to inevitable variations in the dispersion mapping and how large the margins are when suboptimal dispersion management is applied. We show that a DPSK transmission system is not drastically affected by reconfiguration from periodic dispersion management to lumped dispersion mapping. A novel DPSK dispersion map optimisation methodology which reduces drastically the optimisation parameter space and the many ways to deploy dispersion maps is also presented. This alleviates strenuous computing requirements in optimisation calculations. This thesis provides a very efficient and robust way to identify high performing lumped dispersion compensating schemes for use in heterogeneous RZ-DPSK terrestrial meshed networks with ROADMs. A modified search algorithm which further reduces this number of configuration combinations is also presented. The results of an investigation of the feasibility of detouring signals locally in multi-path heterogeneous ring networks is also presented.

Bid-ask spread dynamics in foreign exchange markets

The aim of this paper is to examine the short term dynamics of foreign exchange rate spreads. Using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) we show that most of the variation in the spread comes from the long run dependencies between past and future spreads rather than being caused by changes in inventory, adverse selection, cost of carry or order processing costs. We apply the Integrated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) to discover how often spread volatility changes. We find that spread volatility shifts are relatively uncommon and shifts in one currency spread tend not to spillover to other currency spreads. © 2013.

Operation sequencing optimization for five-axis prismatic parts using a particle swarm optimization approach

Operation sequencing is one of the crucial tasks in process planning. However, it is an intractable process to identify an optimized operation sequence with minimal machining cost in a vast search space constrained by manufacturing conditions. Also, the information represented by current process plan models for three-axis machining is not sufficient for five-axis machining owing to the two extra degrees of freedom and the difficulty of set-up planning. In this paper, a representation of process plans for five-axis machining is proposed, and the complicated operation sequencing process is modelled as a combinatorial optimization problem. A modern evolutionary algorithm, i.e. the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, has been employed and modified to solve it effectively. Initial process plan solutions are formed and encoded into particles of the PSO algorithm. The particles 'fly' intelligently in the search space to achieve the best sequence according to the optimization strategies of the PSO algorithm. Meanwhile, to explore the search space comprehensively and to avoid being trapped into local optima, several new operators have been developed to improve the particle movements to form a modified PSO algorithm. A case study used to verify the performance of the modified PSO algorithm shows that the developed PSO can generate satisfactory results in optimizing the process planning problem. © IMechE 2009.

A new VRPPD model and a hybrid heuristic solution approach for e-tailing

We analyze a business model for e-supermarkets to enable multi-product sourcing capacity through co-opetition (collaborative competition). The logistics aspect of our approach is to design and execute a network system where “premium” goods are acquired from vendors at multiple locations in the supply network and delivered to customers. Our specific goals are to: (i) investigate the role of premium product offerings in creating critical mass and profit; (ii) develop a model for the multiple-pickup single-delivery vehicle routing problem in the presence of multiple vendors; and (iii) propose a hybrid solution approach. To solve the problem introduced in this paper, we develop a hybrid metaheuristic approach that uses a Genetic Algorithm for vendor selection and allocation, and a modified savings algorithm for the capacitated VRP with multiple pickup, single delivery and time windows (CVRPMPDTW). The proposed Genetic Algorithm guides the search for optimal vendor pickup location decisions, and for each generated solution in the genetic population, a corresponding CVRPMPDTW is solved using the savings algorithm. We validate our solution approach against published VRPTW solutions and also test our algorithm with Solomon instances modified for CVRPMPDTW.

Relaxation of alternating iterative algorithms for the Cauchy problem associated with the modified Helmholtz equation

We propose two algorithms involving the relaxation of either the given Dirichlet data or the prescribed Neumann data on the over-specified boundary, in the case of the alternating iterative algorithm of ` 12 ` 12 `$12 `&12 `#12 `^12 `_12 `%12 `~12 *Kozlov91 applied to Cauchy problems for the modified Helmholtz equation. A convergence proof of these relaxation methods is given, along with a stopping criterion. The numerical results obtained using these procedures, in conjunction with the boundary element method (BEM), show the numerical stability, convergence, consistency and computational efficiency of the proposed methods.

Study of EEPN mitigation using modified RF pilot and Viterbi-Viterbi based phase noise compensation

We propose - as a modification of the optical (RF) pilot scheme -a balanced phase modulation between two polarizations of the optical signal in order to generate correlated equalization enhanced phase noise (EEPN) contributions in the two polarizations. The method is applicable for n-level PSK system. The EEPN can be compensated, the carrier phase extracted and the nPSK signal regenerated by complex conjugation and multiplication in the receiver. The method is tested by system simulations in a single channel QPSK system at 56 Gb/s system rate. It is found that the conjugation and multiplication scheme in the Rx can mitigate the EEPN to within 1/2 orders of magnitude. Results are compared to using the Viterbi-Viterbi algorithm to mitigate the EEPN. The latter method improves the sensitivity more than two orders of magnitude. Important novel insight into the statistical properties of EEPN is identified and discussed in the paper. © 2013 Optical Society of America.

The multiple pheromone Ant clustering algorithm

Ant Colony Optimisation algorithms mimic the way ants use pheromones for marking paths to important locations. Pheromone traces are followed and reinforced by other ants, but also evaporate over time. As a consequence, optimal paths attract more pheromone, whilst the less useful paths fade away. In the Multiple Pheromone Ant Clustering Algorithm (MPACA), ants detect features of objects represented as nodes within graph space. Each node has one or more ants assigned to each feature. Ants attempt to locate nodes with matching feature values, depositing pheromone traces on the way. This use of multiple pheromone values is a key innovation. Ants record other ant encounters, keeping a record of the features and colony membership of ants. The recorded values determine when ants should combine their features to look for conjunctions and whether they should merge into colonies. This ability to detect and deposit pheromone representative of feature combinations, and the resulting colony formation, renders the algorithm a powerful clustering tool. The MPACA operates as follows: (i) initially each node has ants assigned to each feature; (ii) ants roam the graph space searching for nodes with matching features; (iii) when departing matching nodes, ants deposit pheromones to inform other ants that the path goes to a node with the associated feature values; (iv) ant feature encounters are counted each time an ant arrives at a node; (v) if the feature encounters exceed a threshold value, feature combination occurs; (vi) a similar mechanism is used for colony merging. The model varies from traditional ACO in that: (i) a modified pheromone-driven movement mechanism is used; (ii) ants learn feature combinations and deposit multiple pheromone scents accordingly; (iii) ants merge into colonies, the basis of cluster formation. The MPACA is evaluated over synthetic and real-world datasets and its performance compares favourably with alternative approaches.