Updating finite element models using measured vibration data

The modelling of mechanical structures using finite element analysis has become an indispensable stage in the design of new components and products. Once the theoretical design has been optimised a prototype may be constructed and tested. What can the engineer do if the measured and theoretically predicted vibration characteristics of the structure are significantly different? This thesis considers the problems of changing the parameters of the finite element model to improve the correlation between a physical structure and its mathematical model. Two new methods are introduced to perform the systematic parameter updating. The first uses the measured modal model to derive the parameter values with the minimum variance. The user must provide estimates for the variance of the theoretical parameter values and the measured data. Previous authors using similar methods have assumed that the estimated parameters and measured modal properties are statistically independent. This will generally be the case during the first iteration but will not be the case subsequently. The second method updates the parameters directly from the frequency response functions. The order of the finite element model of the structure is reduced as a function of the unknown parameters. A method related to a weighted equation error algorithm is used to update the parameters. After each iteration the weighting changes so that on convergence the output error is minimised. The suggested methods are extensively tested using simulated data. An H frame is then used to demonstrate the algorithms on a physical structure.

General and multiplicative non-parametric corporate performance models with interval ratio data

The increasing intensity of global competition has led organizations to utilize various types of performance measurement tools for improving the quality of their products and services. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a methodology for evaluating and measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units (DMUs) that use multiple inputs to produce multiple outputs. All the data in the conventional DEA with input and/or output ratios assumes the form of crisp numbers. However, the observed values of data in real-world problems are sometimes expressed as interval ratios. In this paper, we propose two new models: general and multiplicative non-parametric ratio models for DEA problems with interval data. The contributions of this paper are fourfold: (1) we consider input and output data expressed as interval ratios in DEA; (2) we address the gap in DEA literature for problems not suitable or difficult to model with crisp values; (3) we propose two new DEA models for evaluating the relative efficiencies of DMUs with interval ratios, and (4) we present a case study involving 20 banks with three interval ratios to demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed models where the traditional indicators are mostly financial ratios. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

Survival data analysis using neural networks

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Sequential, Bayesian geostatistics:a principled method for large data sets

The principled statistical application of Gaussian random field models used in geostatistics has historically been limited to data sets of a small size. This limitation is imposed by the requirement to store and invert the covariance matrix of all the samples to obtain a predictive distribution at unsampled locations, or to use likelihood-based covariance estimation. Various ad hoc approaches to solve this problem have been adopted, such as selecting a neighborhood region and/or a small number of observations to use in the kriging process, but these have no sound theoretical basis and it is unclear what information is being lost. In this article, we present a Bayesian method for estimating the posterior mean and covariance structures of a Gaussian random field using a sequential estimation algorithm. By imposing sparsity in a well-defined framework, the algorithm retains a subset of “basis vectors” that best represent the “true” posterior Gaussian random field model in the relative entropy sense. This allows a principled treatment of Gaussian random field models on very large data sets. The method is particularly appropriate when the Gaussian random field model is regarded as a latent variable model, which may be nonlinearly related to the observations. We show the application of the sequential, sparse Bayesian estimation in Gaussian random field models and discuss its merits and drawbacks.

Outlier detection in scatterometer data:Neural network approaches

Satellite-borne scatterometers are used to measure backscattered micro-wave radiation from the ocean surface. This data may be used to infer surface wind vectors where no direct measurements exist. Inherent in this data are outliers owing to aberrations on the water surface and measurement errors within the equipment. We present two techniques for identifying outliers using neural networks; the outliers may then be removed to improve models derived from the data. Firstly the generative topographic mapping (GTM) is used to create a probability density model; data with low probability under the model may be classed as outliers. In the second part of the paper, a sensor model with input-dependent noise is used and outliers are identified based on their probability under this model. GTM was successfully modified to incorporate prior knowledge of the shape of the observation manifold; however, GTM could not learn the double skinned nature of the observation manifold. To learn this double skinned manifold necessitated the use of a sensor model which imposes strong constraints on the mapping. The results using GTM with a fixed noise level suggested the noise level may vary as a function of wind speed. This was confirmed by experiments using a sensor model with input-dependent noise, where the variation in noise is most sensitive to the wind speed input. Both models successfully identified gross outliers with the largest differences between models occurring at low wind speeds. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

GIS linked environmental process models

In recent years there has been a great effort to combine the technologies and techniques of GIS and process models. This project examines the issues of linking a standard current generation 2½d GIS with several existing model codes. The focus for the project has been the Shropshire Groundwater Scheme, which is being developed to augment flow in the River Severn during drought periods by pumping water from the Shropshire Aquifer. Previous authors have demonstrated that under certain circumstances pumping could reduce the soil moisture available for crops. This project follows earlier work at Aston in which the effects of drawdown were delineated and quantified through the development of a software package that implemented a technique which brought together the significant spatially varying parameters. This technique is repeated here, but using a standard GIS called GRASS. The GIS proved adequate for the task and the added functionality provided by the general purpose GIS - the data capture, manipulation and visualisation facilities - were of great benefit. The bulk of the project is concerned with examining the issues of the linkage of GIS and environmental process models. To this end a groundwater model (Modflow) and a soil moisture model (SWMS2D) were linked to the GIS and a crop model was implemented within the GIS. A loose-linked approach was adopted and secondary and surrogate data were used wherever possible. The implications of which relate to; justification of a loose-linked versus a closely integrated approach; how, technically, to achieve the linkage; how to reconcile the different data models used by the GIS and the process models; control of the movement of data between models of environmental subsystems, to model the total system; the advantages and disadvantages of using a current generation GIS as a medium for linking environmental process models; generation of input data, including the use of geostatistic, stochastic simulation, remote sensing, regression equations and mapped data; issues of accuracy, uncertainty and simply providing adequate data for the complex models; how such a modelling system fits into an organisational framework.

Localising the auditory N1m with event-related beamformers:localisation accuracy following bilateral and unilateral stimulation

The auditory evoked N1m-P2m response complex presents a challenging case for MEG source-modelling, because symmetrical, phase-locked activity occurs in the hemispheres both contralateral and ipsilateral to stimulation. Beamformer methods, in particular, can be susceptible to localisation bias and spurious sources under these conditions. This study explored the accuracy and efficiency of event-related beamformer source models for auditory MEG data under typical experimental conditions: monaural and diotic stimulation; and whole-head beamformer analysis compared to a half-head analysis using only sensors from the hemisphere contralateral to stimulation. Event-related beamformer localisations were also compared with more traditional single-dipole models. At the group level, the event-related beamformer performed equally well as the single-dipole models in terms of accuracy for both the N1m and the P2m, and in terms of efficiency (number of successful source models) for the N1m. The results yielded by the half-head analysis did not differ significantly from those produced by the traditional whole-head analysis. Any localisation bias caused by the presence of correlated sources is minimal in the context of the inter-individual variability in source localisations. In conclusion, event-related beamformers provide a useful alternative to equivalent-current dipole models in localisation of auditory evoked responses.

A morphometric study of the spatial patterns of TDP-43 immunoreactive neuronal inclusions in frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD) with progranulin (GRN) mutation

Mutations of the progranulin (GRN) gene are a major cause of familial frontotemporal lobar degeneration with transactive response (TAR) DNA-binding protein of 43 kDa (TDP-43) proteinopathy (FTLD-TDP). We studied the spatial patterns of TDP-43 immunoreactive neuronal cytoplasmic inclusions (NCI) and neuronal intranuclear inclusions (NII) in histological sections of the frontal and temporal lobe in eight cases of FTLD-TDP with GRN mutation using morphometric methods and spatial pattern analysis. In neocortical regions, the NCI were clustered and the clusters were regularly distributed parallel to the pia mater; 58% of regions analysed exhibiting this pattern. The NII were present in regularly distributed clusters in 35% of regions but also randomly distributed in many areas. In neocortical regions, the sizes of the regular clusters of NCI and NII were 400-800 µm, approximating to the size of the modular columns of the cortico-cortical projections, in 31% and 36% of regions respectively. The NCI and NII also exhibited regularly spaced clustering in sectors CA1/2 of the hippocampus and in the dentate gyrus. The clusters of NCI and NII were not spatially correlated. The data suggest degeneration of the cortico-cortical and cortico-hippocampal pathways in FTLD-TDP with GRN mutation, the NCI and NII affecting different clusters of neurons.

System identification of linear vibrating structures

Methods of dynamic modelling and analysis of structures, for example the finite element method, are well developed. However, it is generally agreed that accurate modelling of complex structures is difficult and for critical applications it is necessary to validate or update the theoretical models using data measured from actual structures. The techniques of identifying the parameters of linear dynamic models using Vibration test data have attracted considerable interest recently. However, no method has received a general acceptance due to a number of difficulties. These difficulties are mainly due to (i) Incomplete number of Vibration modes that can be excited and measured, (ii) Incomplete number of coordinates that can be measured, (iii) Inaccuracy in the experimental data (iv) Inaccuracy in the model structure. This thesis reports on a new approach to update the parameters of a finite element model as well as a lumped parameter model with a diagonal mass matrix. The structure and its theoretical model are equally perturbed by adding mass or stiffness and the incomplete number of eigen-data is measured. The parameters are then identified by an iterative updating of the initial estimates, by sensitivity analysis, using eigenvalues or both eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the structure before and after perturbation. It is shown that with a suitable choice of the perturbing coordinates exact parameters can be identified if the data and the model structure are exact. The theoretical basis of the technique is presented. To cope with measurement errors and possible inaccuracies in the model structure, a well known Bayesian approach is used to minimize the least squares difference between the updated and the initial parameters. The eigen-data of the structure with added mass or stiffness is also determined using the frequency response data of the unmodified structure by a structural modification technique. Thus, mass or stiffness do not have to be added physically. The mass-stiffness addition technique is demonstrated by simulation examples and Laboratory experiments on beams and an H-frame.

The application of remote sensing to water resources

Techniques are developed for the visual interpretation of drainage features from satellite imagery. The process of interpretation is formalised by the introduction of objective criteria. Problems of assessing the accuracy of maps are recognized, and a method is developed for quantifying the correctness of an interpretation, in which the more important features are given an appropriate weight. A study was made of imagery from a variety of landscapes in Britain and overseas, from which maps of drainage networks were drawn. The accuracy of the mapping was assessed in absolute terms, and also in relation to the geomorphic parameters used in hydrologic models. Results are presented relating the accuracy of interpretation to image quality, subjectivity and the effects of topography. It is concluded that the visual interpretation of satellite imagery gives maps of sufficient accuracy for the preliminary assessment of water resources, and for the estimation of geomorphic parameters. An examination is made of the use of remotely sensed data in hydrologic models. It is proposed that the spectral properties of a scene are holistic, and are therefore more efficient than conventional catchment characteristics. Key hydrologic parameters were identified, and were estimated from streamflow records. The correlation between hydrologic variables and spectral characteristics was examined, and regression models for streamflow were developed, based solely on spectral data. Regression models were also developed using conventional catchment characteristics, whose values were estimated using satellite imagery. It was concluded that models based primarily on variables derived from remotely sensed data give results which are as good as, or better than, models using conventional map data. The holistic properties of remotely sensed data are realised only in undeveloped areas. In developed areas an assessment of current land-use is a more useful indication of hydrologic response.

Self-selection into export markets by business services firms:evidence from France, Germany and the United Kingdom

This study investigates business services firms that (start to) export, comparing exporters to firms that serve the national market only. We estimate identically specified empirical models using comparable enterprise data from France, Germany, and the UK. Our findings show that exporters are on average more productive and pay higher wages in all three countries. However, results for profitability differ across borders, where profitability of exporters is significantly smaller in Germany, significantly larger in France, and does not differ significantly in the UK. The results for wages and productivity hold in the years before firms start exporting, which indicates self-selection into exporting of more productive services firms that pay higher wages. The surprising finding of self-selection of less profitable German services firms into exporting does not show up among firms from France and the UK. In all three countries we do not find evidence for positive effects of exporting on firm performance. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

The development of functional astrocyte-neuron networks derived from stem cells

There is currently great scientific and medical interest in the potential of tissue grown from stem cells. These cells present opportunities for generating model systems for drug screening and toxicological testing which would be expected to be more relevant to human outcomes than animal based tissue preparations. Newly realised astrocytic roles in the brain have fundamental implications within the context of stem cell derived neuronal networks. If the aim of stem cell neuroscience is to generate functional neuronal networks that behave as networks do in the brain, then it becomes clear that we must include and understand all the cellular components that comprise that network, and which are important to support synaptic integrity and cell to cell signalling. We have shown that stem cell derived neurons exhibit spontaneous and coordinated calcium elevations in clusters and in extended processes, indicating local and long distance signalling (1). Tetrodotoxin sensitive network activity could also be evoked by electrical stimulation. Similarly, astrocytes exhibit morphology and functional properties consistent with this glial cell type. Astrocytes also respond to neuronal activity and to exogenously applied neurotransmitters with calcium elevations, and in contrast to neurons, also exhibited spontaneous rhythmic calcium oscillations. Astroctyes also generate propagating calcium waves that are gap junction and purinergic signalling dependent. Our results show that stem cell derived astrocytes exhibit appropriate functionality and that stem cell neuronal networks interact with astrocytic networks in co-culture. Using mixed cultures of stem cell derived neurons and astrocytes, we have also shown both cell types also modulate their glucose uptake, glycogen turnover and lactate production in response to glutamate as well as increased neuronal activity (2). This finding is consistent with their neuron-astrocyte metabolic coupling thus demonstrating a tractable human model, which will facilitate the study of the metabolic coupling between neurons and astrocytes and its relationship with CNS functional issues ranging from plasticity to neurodegeneration. Indeed, cultures treated with oligomers of amyloid beta 1-42 (Aβ1-42) also display a clear hypometabolism, particularly with regard to utilization of substrates such as glucose (3). Both co-cultures of neurons and astrocytes and purified cultures of astrocytes showed a significant decrease in glucose uptake after treatment with 2 and 0.2 μmol/L Aβ at all time points investigated (p <0.01). In addition, a significant increase in the glycogen content of cells was also measured. Mixed neuron and astrocyte co-cultures as well as pure astrocyte cultures showed an initial decrease in glycogen levels at 6 hours compared with control at 0.2 μmol/L and 2 μmol/L P <0.01. These changes were accompanied by changes in NAD+/NADH (P<0.05), ATP (P<0.05), and glutathione levels (P<0.05), suggesting a disruption in the energy-redox axis within these cultures. The high energy demands associated with neuronal functions such as memory formation and protection from oxidative stress put these cells at particular risk from Aβ-induced hypometabolism. As numerous cell types interact in the brain it is important that any in vitro model developed reflects this arrangement. Our findings indicate that stem cell derived neuron and astrocyte networks can communicate, and so have the potential to interact in a tripartite manner as is seen in vivo. This study therefore lays the foundation for further development of stem cell derived neurons and astrocytes into therapeutic cell replacement and human toxicology/disease models. More recently our data provides evidence for a detrimental effect of Aβ on carbohydrate metabolism in both neurons and astrocytes. As a purely in vitro system, human stem cell models can be readily manipulated and maintained in culture for a period of months without the use of animals. In our laboratory cultures can be maintained in culture for up to 12 months months thus providing the opportunity to study the consequences of these changes over extended periods of time relevant to aspects of the disease progression time frame in vivo. In addition, their human origin provides a more realistic in vitro model as well as informing other human in vitro models such as patient-derived iPSC.

Handling high level of censoring for endovascular aortic repair risk prediction

Feature selection is important in medical field for many reasons. However, selecting important variables is a difficult task with the presence of censoring that is a unique feature in survival data analysis. This paper proposed an approach to deal with the censoring problem in endovascular aortic repair survival data through Bayesian networks. It was merged and embedded with a hybrid feature selection process that combines cox's univariate analysis with machine learning approaches such as ensemble artificial neural networks to select the most relevant predictive variables. The proposed algorithm was compared with common survival variable selection approaches such as; least absolute shrinkage and selection operator LASSO, and Akaike information criterion AIC methods. The results showed that it was capable of dealing with high censoring in the datasets. Moreover, ensemble classifiers increased the area under the roc curves of the two datasets collected from two centers located in United Kingdom separately. Furthermore, ensembles constructed with center 1 enhanced the concordance index of center 2 prediction compared to the model built with a single network. Although the size of the final reduced model using the neural networks and its ensembles is greater than other methods, the model outperformed the others in both concordance index and sensitivity for center 2 prediction. This indicates the reduced model is more powerful for cross center prediction.