Progmosis:evaluating risky individual behavior during epidemics using mobile network data

The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies that strike a balance between risk management and cost. Two major techniques policy makers have at their disposal are: epidemic modeling and contact tracing. Models are used to forecast the evolution of the epidemic both globally and regionally, while contact tracing is used to reconstruct the chain of people who have been potentially infected, so that they can be tested, isolated and treated immediately. However, both techniques might provide limited information, especially during an already advanced crisis when the need for action is urgent. In this paper we propose an alternative approach that goes beyond epidemic modeling and contact tracing, and leverages behavioral data generated by mobile carrier networks to evaluate contagion risk on a per-user basis. The individual risk represents the loss incurred by not isolating or treating a specific person, both in terms of how likely it is for this person to spread the disease as well as how many secondary infections it will cause. To this aim, we develop a model, named Progmosis, which quantifies this risk based on movement and regional aggregated statistics about infection rates. We develop and release an open-source tool that calculates this risk based on cellular network events. We simulate a realistic epidemic scenarios, based on an Ebola virus outbreak; we find that gradually restricting the mobility of a subset of individuals reduces the number of infected people after 30 days by 24%.

Ensuring QoE in contemporary mobile networks for video content distribution

A framework that aims to best utilize the mobile network resources for video applications is presented in this paper. The main contribution of the work proposed is the QoE-driven optimization method that can maintain a desired trade-off between fairness and efficiency in allocating resources in terms of data rates to video streaming users in LTE networks. This method is concerned with the control of the user satisfaction level from the service continuity's point of view and applies appropriate QoE metrics (Pause Intensity and variations) to determine the scheduling strategies in combination with the mechanisms used for adaptive video streaming such as 3GP/MPEG-DASH. The superiority of the proposed algorithms are demonstrated, showing how the resources of a mobile network can be optimally utilized by using quantifiable QoE measurements. This approach can also find the best match between demand and supply in the process of network resource distribution.

Advanced handover procedure for cellular communication systems

Third Generation cellular communication systems are expected to support mixed cell architecture in which picocells, microcells and macrocells are used to achieve full coverage and increase the spectral capacity. Supporting higher numbers of mobile terminals and the use of smaller cells will result in an increase in the number of handovers, and consequently an increase in the time delays required to perform these handovers. Higher time delays will generate call interruptions and forced terminations, particularly for time sensitive applications like real-time multimedia and data services. Currently in the Global System for Mobile communications (GSM), the handover procedure is initiated and performed by the fixed part of the Public Land Mobile Network (PLMN). The mobile terminal is only capable of detecting candidate base stations suitable for the handover; it is the role of the network to interrogate a candidate base station for a free channel. Handover signalling is exchanged via the fixed network and the time delay required to perform the handover is greatly affected by the levels of teletraffic handled by the network. In this thesis, a new handover strategy is developed to reduce the total time delay for handovers in a microcellular system. The handover signalling is diverted from the fixed network to the air interface to prevent extra delays due to teletraffic congestion, and to allow the mobile terminal to exchange signalling directly with the candidate base station. The new strategy utilises Packet Reservation Multiple Access (PRMA) technique as a mechanism to transfer the control of the handover procedure from the fixed network to the mobile terminal. Simulation results are presented to show a dramatic reduction in the handover delay as compared to those obtained using fixed channel allocation and dynamic channel allocation schemes.

An examination of NPD models in the context of business models

Most prior new product diffusion (NPD) models do not specifically consider the role of the business model in the process. However, the context of NPD in today's market has been changed dramatically by the introduction of new business models. Through reinterpretation and extension, this paper empirically examines the feasibility of applying Bass-type NPD models to products that are commercialized by different business models. More specifically, the results and analysis of this study consider the subscription business model for service products, the freemium business model for digital products, and a pre-paid and post-paid business model that is widely used by mobile network providers. The paper offers new insights derived from implementing the models in real-life cases. It also highlights three themes for future research.

Network effects, network structure and consumer interaction in mobile telecommunications in Europe and Asia

This paper estimates the importance of (tariff-mediated) network effects and the impact of a consumer's social network on her choice of mobile phone provider. The study uses network data obtained from surveys of students in several European and Asian countries. We use the Quadratic Assignment Procedure, a non-parametric permutation test, to adjust for the particular error structure of network data. We find that respondents strongly coordinate their choice of mobile phone providers, but only if their provider induces network effects. This suggests that this coordination depends on network effects rather than on information contagion or pressure to conform to the social environment.

Dynamic Bayesian network for semantic place classification in mobile robotics

In this paper, the problem of semantic place categorization in mobile robotics is addressed by considering a time-based probabilistic approach called dynamic Bayesian mixture model (DBMM), which is an improved variation of the dynamic Bayesian network. More specifically, multi-class semantic classification is performed by a DBMM composed of a mixture of heterogeneous base classifiers, using geometrical features computed from 2D laserscanner data, where the sensor is mounted on-board a moving robot operating indoors. Besides its capability to combine different probabilistic classifiers, the DBMM approach also incorporates time-based (dynamic) inferences in the form of previous class-conditional probabilities and priors. Extensive experiments were carried out on publicly available benchmark datasets, highlighting the influence of the number of time-slices and the effect of additive smoothing on the classification performance of the proposed approach. Reported results, under different scenarios and conditions, show the effectiveness and competitive performance of the DBMM.

Analysis and simulation of computer controlled cellular mobile radio systems

Cellular mobile radio systems will be of increasing importance in the future. This thesis describes research work concerned with the teletraffic capacity and the canputer control requirements of such systems. The work involves theoretical analysis and experimental investigations using digital computer simulation. New formulas are derived for the congestion in single-cell systems in which there are both land-to-mobile and mobile-to-mobile calls and in which mobile-to-mobile calls go via the base station. Two approaches are used, the first yields modified forms of the familiar Erlang and Engset formulas, while the second gives more complicated but more accurate formulas. The results of computer simulations to establish the accuracy of the formulas are described. New teletraffic formulas are also derived for the congestion in multi -cell systems. Fixed, dynamic and hybrid channel assignments are considered. The formulas agree with previously published simulation results. Simulation programs are described for the evaluation of the speech traffic of mobiles and for the investigation of a possible computer network for the control of the speech traffic. The programs were developed according to the structured progranming approach leading to programs of modular construction. Two simulation methods are used for the speech traffic: the roulette method and the time-true method. The first is economical but has some restriction, while the second is expensive but gives comprehensive answers. The proposed control network operates at three hierarchical levels performing various control functions which include: the setting-up and clearing-down of calls, the hand-over of calls between cells and the address-changing of mobiles travelling between cities. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the control netwvork and indicate that small mini -computers inter-connected via voice grade data channels would be capable of providing satisfactory control

Efficiency improvements to the Groupe Special Mobile (GSM) digital mobile radio system

Groupe Spécial Mobile (GSM) has been developed as the pan-European second generation of digital mobile systems. GSM operates in the 900 MHz frequency band and employs digital technology instead of the analogue technology of its predecessors. Digital technology enables the GSM system to operate in much smaller zones in comparison with the analogue systems. The GSM system will offer greater roaming facilities to its subscribers, extended throughout the countries that have installed the system. The GSM system could be seen as a further enhancement to European integration. GSM has adopted a contention-based protocol for multipoint-to-point transmission. In particular, the slotted-ALOHA medium access protocol is used to coordinate the transmission of the channel request messages between the scattered mobile stations. Collision still happens when more than one mobile station having the same random reference number attempts to transmit on the same time-slot. In this research, a modified version of this protocol has been developed in order to reduce the number of collisions and hence increase the random access channel throughput compared to the existing protocol. The performance evaluation of the protocol has been carried out using simulation methods. Due to the growing demand for mobile radio telephony as well as for data services, optimal usage of the scarce availability radio spectrum is becoming increasingly important. In this research, a protocol has been developed whereby the number of transmitted information packets over the GSM system is increased without any additional increase of the allocated radio spectrum. Simulation results are presented to show the improvements achieved by the proposed protocol. Cellular mobile radio networks commonly respond to an increase in the service demand by using smaller coverage areas. As a result, the volume of the signalling exchanges increases. In this research, a proposal for interconnecting the various entitles of the mobile radio network over the future broadband networks based on the IEEE 802.6 Metropolitan Area Network (MAN) is outlined. Simulation results are presented to show the benefits achieved by interconnecting these entities over the broadband Networks.

Capacity improvements for a direct-sequence code division multiple access network

The rapidly increasing demand for cellular telephony is placing greater demand on the limited bandwidth resources available. This research is concerned with techniques which enhance the capacity of a Direct-Sequence Code-Division-Multiple-Access (DS-CDMA) mobile telephone network. The capacity of both Private Mobile Radio (PMR) and cellular networks are derived and the many techniques which are currently available are reviewed. Areas which may be further investigated are identified. One technique which is developed is the sectorisation of a cell into toroidal rings. This is shown to provide an increased system capacity when the cell is split into these concentric rings and this is compared with cell clustering and other sectorisation schemes. Another technique for increasing the capacity is achieved by adding to the amount of inherent randomness within the transmitted signal so that the system is better able to extract the wanted signal. A system model has been produced for a cellular DS-CDMA network and the results are presented for two possible strategies. One of these strategies is the variation of the chip duration over a signal bit period. Several different variation functions are tried and a sinusoidal function is shown to provide the greatest increase in the maximum number of system users for any given signal-to-noise ratio. The other strategy considered is the use of additive amplitude modulation together with data/chip phase-shift-keying. The amplitude variations are determined by a sparse code so that the average system power is held near its nominal level. This strategy is shown to provide no further capacity since the system is sensitive to amplitude variations. When both strategies are employed, however, the sensitivity to amplitude variations is shown to reduce, thus indicating that the first strategy both increases the capacity and the ability to handle fluctuations in the received signal power.

Survey and applications of standardized energy metrics to mobile networks

The energy consumption and the energy efficiency have become very important issue in optimizing the current as well as in designing the future telecommunications networks. The energy and power metrics are being introduced in order to enable assessment and comparison of the energy consumption and power efficiency of the telecommunications networks and other transmission equipment. The standardization of the energy and power metrics is a significant ongoing activity aiming to define the baseline energy and power metrics for the telecommunications systems. This article provides an up-to-date overview of the energy and power metrics being proposed by the various standardization bodies and subsequently adopted worldwide by the equipment manufacturers and the network operators. © Institut Télécom and Springer-Verlag 2012.and Springer-Verlag 2012.

A network coding based interference cancelation scheme for wireless ad hoc networks

The performance of wireless networks is limited by multiple access interference (MAI) in the traditional communication approach where the interfered signals of the concurrent transmissions are treated as noise. In this paper, we treat the interfered signals from a new perspective on the basis of additive electromagnetic (EM) waves and propose a network coding based interference cancelation (NCIC) scheme. In the proposed scheme, adjacent nodes can transmit simultaneously with careful scheduling; therefore, network performance will not be limited by the MAI. Additionally we design a space segmentation method for general wireless ad hoc networks, which organizes network into clusters with regular shapes (e.g., square and hexagon) to reduce the number of relay nodes. The segmentation methodworks with the scheduling scheme and can help achieve better scalability and reduced complexity. We derive accurate analytic models for the probability of connectivity between two adjacent cluster heads which is important for successful information relay. We proved that with the proposed NCIC scheme, the transmission efficiency can be improved by at least 50% for general wireless networks as compared to the traditional interference avoidance schemes. Numeric results also show the space segmentation is feasible and effective. Finally we propose and discuss a method to implement the NCIC scheme in a practical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) communications networks. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Practical network coding for two way relay channels in LTE networks

In this paper, the implementation aspects and constraints of the simplest network coding (NC) schemes for a two-way relay channel (TWRC) composed of a user equipment (mobile terminal), an LTE relay station (RS) and an LTE base station (eNB) are considered in order to assess the usefulness of the NC in more realistic scenarios. The information exchange rate gain (IERG), the energy reduction gain (ERG) and the resource utilization gain (RUG) of the NC schemes with and without subcarrier division duplexing (SDD) are obtained by computer simulations. The usefulness of the NC schemes are evaluated for varying traffic load levels, the geographical distances between the nodes, the RS transmit powers, and the maximum numbers of retransmissions. Simulation results show that the NC schemes with and without SDD, have the throughput gains 0.5% and 25%, the ERGs 7 - 12% and 16 - 25%, and the RUGs 0.5 - 3.2%, respectively. It is found that the NC can provide performance gains also for the users at the cell edge. Furthermore, the ERGs of the NC increase with the transmit power of the relay while the ERGs of the NC remain the same even when the maximum number of retransmissions is reduced.

On the capacity improvement of multicast throughput in wireless ad hoc networks with physical-layer network coding

This paper attempts to address the effectiveness of physical-layer network coding (PNC) on the capacity improvement for multi-hop multicast in random wireless ad hoc networks (WAHNs). While it can be shown that there is a capacity gain by PNC, we can prove that the per session throughput capacity with PNC is ? (nR(n))), where n is the total number of nodes, R(n) is the communication range, and each multicast session consists of a constant number of sinks. The result implies that PNC cannot improve the capacity order of multicast in random WAHNs, which is different from the intuition that PNC may improve the capacity order as it allows simultaneous signal reception and combination. Copyright © 2010 ACM.

Network optimisation - A statistical physics perspective

Inference and optimisation of real-value edge variables in sparse graphs are studied using the tree based Bethe approximation optimisation algorithms. Equilibrium states of general energy functions involving a large set of real edge-variables that interact at the network nodes are obtained for networks in various cases. These include different cost functions, connectivity values, constraints on the edge bandwidth and the case of multiclass optimisation.

Loss fluctuations and temporal correlations in network queues

We consider data losses in a single node of a packet- switched Internet-like network. We employ two distinct models, one with discrete and the other with continuous one-dimensional random walks, representing the state of a queue in a router. Both models have a built-in critical behavior with a sharp transition from exponentially small to finite losses. It turns out that the finite capacity of a buffer and the packet-dropping procedure give rise to specific boundary conditions which lead to strong loss rate fluctuations at the critical point even in the absence of such fluctuations in the data arrival process.