Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Developing a forest data portal to support multi-scale decision making

Forests play a pivotal role in timber production, maintenance and development of biodiversity and in carbon sequestration and storage in the context of the Kyoto Protocol. Policy makers and forest experts therefore require reliable information on forest extent, type and change for management, planning and modeling purposes. It is becoming increasingly clear that such forest information is frequently inconsistent and unharmonised between countries and continents. This research paper presents a forest information portal that has been developed in line with the GEOSS and INSPIRE frameworks. The web portal provides access to forest resources data at a variety of spatial scales, from global through to regional and local, as well as providing analytical capabilities for monitoring and validating forest change. The system also allows for the utilisation of forest data and processing services within other thematic areas. The web portal has been developed using open standards to facilitate accessibility, interoperability and data transfer.

Obstacles and solutions to maximising urban biodiversity throughout the lifecycles of major developments in England

Thus far, achieving net biodiversity gains through major urban developments has been neither common nor straightforward - despite the presence of incentives, regulatory contexts, and ubiquitous practical guidance tools. A diverse set of obstructions, occurring within different spatial, temporal and actor hierarchies, are experienced by practitioners and render the realisation of maximised biodiversity, a rarity. This research aims to illuminate why this is so, and what needs to be changed to rectify the situation. To determine meaningful findings and conclusions, capable of assisting applied contexts and accommodating a diverse range of influences, a ‘systems approach’ was adopted. This approach led to the use of a multi-strategy research methodology, to identify the key obstructions and solutions to protecting and enhancing biodiversity - incorporating the following methods: action research, a questionnaire to local government ecologists, interviews and personal communications with leading players, and literature reviews. Nevertheless, ‘case studies’ are the predominant research method, the focus being a ‘nested’ case study looking at strategic issues of the largest regeneration area in Europe ‘the Thames Gateway’, and the largest individual mixeduse mega-development in the UK (at the time of planning consent) ‘Eastern Quarry 2’ - set within the Gateway. A further key case study, focussing on the Central Riverside development in Sheffield, identifies the merits of competition and partnership. The nested cases, theories and findings show that the strategic scale - generally relating to governance and prioritisation - impacts heavily upon individual development sites. It also enables the identification of various processes, mechanisms and issues at play on the individual development sites, which primarily relate to project management, planning processes, skills and transdisciplinary working, innovative urban biodiversity design capabilities, incentives, organisational cultures, and socio-ecological resilience. From these findings a way forward is mapped, spanning aspects from strategic governance to detailed project management.

Management processes in marketing planning

There has been concern in the literature about the adequacy of the traditional model of marketing planning, which focuses on what decisions should be made and not on how to make them. The aim of this article is a new conceptualisation that proposes key management processes about how marketing planning decisions are made in a dynamic context. The motives for this conceptualisation are to contribute to understanding by advancing the traditional model of marketing planning, to stimulate academic and practitioner debate about how marketing planning decisions are made, and to initiate new directions in marketing planning research. Two new competing models of marketing planning are developed, which address key management processes about how marketing planning decisions are made in a dynamic context, and research directions are proposed.

Planning and implementing safety management systems

This thesis describes a study of the content and applicability of BS8800:1996 Guide to occupational health and safety management systems. The research is presented chronologically, with literature review and content analysis of SMS related guides and standards interwoven with two elements of qualitative empirical work. The first of these was carried out shortly after publication of BS8800 in 1996, a 'before-the-event' investigation of how organisations were intending to approach SMS implementation. The challenges faced by these organisations are reviewed against standard management theory, suggesting that the initial motivation for SMS implementation governs the approach organisations will adopt to guidance such as BS8800. The second phase of empirical work was undertaken in the context of OHSAS 18001, an auditable protocol based on BS8800, which allows organisations to certify their safety management systems. A discussion of the evolution of certifiable safety management system is presented, highlighting the similarities and differences between this, BS8800, SMS and wider management system standards. A case study then reviews the experiences of a catering company that implemented 18001, motivated by the opportunity for certification as a business benefit. The empirical work is used to comment on the guidance provided by BS8800, within its evolved role as guidance organisations may use for implementation of a SMS to be certified according to the specifications of OHSAS 18001. It is suggested that optimal implementation is facilitated by initial status review, continual improvement and the use of annexes, where there are used to make changes to the existing safety management system. This thesis concludes with a discussion of these elements, highlighting pertinent areas within BS8800 where revision or amendment may be appropriate.

The planning and management of health for development:a model for Zimbabwe

In this thesis, I view the historical background of Zimbabwe to show the patterns of traditional life that existed prior to settlerism. The form, nature, pace and impact of settlerism and colonialism up to the time of independence are also discussed to show how they affected the health of the population and the pace of development of the country. The political, social and economic underdevelopment of the African people that occurred in Zimbabwe prior to independence was a result of deliberate, politically motivated and controlled policy initiatives. These led to inequatable, inadequate, inappropriate and inaccessible health care provision. It is submitted that since it was the politics that determined the pace of underdevelopment, it must be the politics that must be at the forefront of the development strategy adopted. In the face of the amed conflict that existed in Zimbabwe, existing frameworks of analyses are shown to be inadequate for planning purposes because of their inability to provide indications about the stability of future outcomes. The Metagame technique of analysis of options is proposed as a methology that can be applied in such situations. It rejects deterministic predicative models as misleading and advocates an interactive model based on objective and subjective valuation of human behaviour. In conclusion, the search for stable outcomes rather than optimal and best solutions strategies is advocated in decision making in organisations of all sizes.

Risk management in enterprise resource planning implementation:a new risk assessment framework

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) projects are risky. But if they are implemented appropriately, they can provide competitive advantage to organisations. Therefore, ERP implementation has become one of the most critical aspects of today's information management research. The main purpose of this article is to describe a new ERP risk assessment framework (RAF) that can be used to increase the success of ERP implementation. In this article, through a case study based in a leading UK-based energy service provider, we demonstrate the new RAF, which has been shown to help identify and mitigate risks in ERP implementation. In contrast to other research, this RAF identifies risks hierarchically in external engagement, programme management, work stream and work package levels across technical, schedule, operational, business and organisational categories. This not only helped to develop responses to mitigate risks but also facilitates on-going risk control.

Decision support for lifecycle planning and risk management of small-scale biomass combined heat and power (bCHP) projects in the UK

Biomass is projected to account for approximately half of the new energy production required to achieve the 2020 primary energy target in the UK. Combined heat and power (CHP) bioenergy systems are not only a highly efficient method of energy conversion, at smaller-scales a significant proportion of the heat produced can be effectively utilised for hot water, space heating or industrial heating purposes. However, there are many barriers to project development and this has greatly inhibited deployment in the UK. Project viability is highly subjective to changes in policy, regulation, the finance market and the low cost incumbent; a high carbon centralised energy system. Unidentified or unmitigated barriers occurring during the project lifecycle may not only negatively impact on the project but could ultimately lead to project failure. The research develops a decision support system (DSS) for small-scale (500 kWe to 10 MWe) biomass combustion CHP project development and risk management in the early stages of a potential project’s lifecycle. By supporting developers in the early stages of project development with financial, scheduling and risk management analysis, the research aims to reduce the barriers identified and streamline decision-making. A fuzzy methodology is also applied throughout the developed DSS to support developers in handling the uncertain or approximate information often held at the early stages of the project lifecycle. The DSS is applied to a case study of a recently failed (2011) small-scale biomass CHP project to demonstrate its applicability and benefits. The application highlights that the proposed development within the case study was not viable. Moreover, further analysis of the possible barriers with the DSS confirmed that some possible modifications to be project could have improved this, such as a possible change of feedstock to a waste or residue, addressing the unnecessary land lease cost or by increasing heat utilisation onsite. This analysis is further supported by a practitioner evaluation survey that confirms the research contribution and objectives are achieved.

An examinaton of how British local authorities are employing strategic planning and management in their economic development function

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Financial planning and project cost control techniques applied to building management

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Planning for success : an investigation into the management, organisation and feasibility of teaching modern foreign languages in the primary school.

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Assessing the impact of management concerns in e-business requirements planning in manufacturing organizations

This paper describes the application of a model, initially developed for determining the e-business requirements of a manufacturing organization, to assess the impact of management concerns on the functions generated. The model has been tested on 13 case studies in small, medium and large organizations. This research shows that the incorporation of concerns for generating the requirements for e-business functions improves the results, because they expose issues that are of relevance to the decision making process relating to e-business. Running the model with both and without concerns, and then presenting the reasons for major variances, can expose the issues and enable them to be studied in detail at the individual function/ reason level. © IFIP International Federation for Information Processing 2013.