The efficiency of multivariate macroeconomic forecasts

We examine the efficiency of multivariate macroeconomic forecasts by estimating a vector autoregressive model on the forecast revisions of four variables (GDP, inflation, unemployment and wages). Using a data set of professional forecasts for the G7 countries, we find evidence of cross‐series revision dynamics. Specifically, forecasts revisions are conditionally correlated to the lagged forecast revisions of other macroeconomic variables, and the sign of the correlation is as predicted by conventional economic theory. This indicates that forecasters are slow to incorporate news across variables. We show that this finding can be explained by forecast underreaction.

Macroeconomic determinants of contingent protection:the case of the European Union

Contingent Protection has grown to become an important trade restricting device. In the European Union, protection instruments like antidumping are used extensively. This paper analyses whether macroeconomic pressures may contribute to explain the variations in the intensity of antidumping protectionism in the EU. The empirical analysis uses count data models, applying various specification tests to derive the most appropriate specification. Our results suggest that the filing activity is inversely related to the macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, they confirm existing evidence for the US suggesting that domestic macroeconomic pressures are a more important determinant of contingent protection policy than external pressures.