Do external funds yield lower returns? Recent evidence from East Asian economies

One of the central explanations of the recent Asian Crisis has been the problem of moral hazard as the source of over-investment and excessive external borrowing. There is however rather limited firm-level empirical evidence to characterise inefficient use of internal and external finances. Using a large firm-level panel data-set from four badly affected Asian countries, this paper compares the rates of return to various internal and external funds among firms with low and high debt financing (relative to equity) among financially constrained and other firms. Selectivity-corrected estimates obtained from random effects panel data model do suggest evidence of significantly lower rates of return to long-term debt, even among firms relying more on debt relative to equity in our sample. There is also evidence that average effective interest rates often significantly exceeded the average returns to long-term debt in the sample countries in the pre-crisis period. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The missing ingredient:inter-municipal cooperation and central-local relations in the UK

The thrust of the argument presented in this chapter is that inter-municipal cooperation (IMC) in the United Kingdom reflects local government's constitutional position and its exposure to the exigencies of Westminster (elected central government) and Whitehall (centre of the professional civil service that services central government). For the most part councils are without general powers of competence and are restricted in what they can do by Parliament. This suggests that the capacity for locally driven IMC is restricted and operates principally within a framework constructed by central government's policy objectives and legislation and the political expediencies of the governing political party. In practice, however, recent examples of IMC demonstrate that the practices are more complex than this initial analysis suggests. Central government may exert top-down pressures and impose hierarchical directives, but there are important countervailing forces. Constitutional changes in Scotland and Wales have shifted the locus of central- local relations away from Westminster and Whitehall. In England, the seeding of English government regional offices in 1994 has evolved into an important structural arrangement that encourages councils to work together. Within the local government community there is now widespread acknowledgement that to achieve the ambitious targets set by central government, councils are, by necessity, bound to cooperate and work with other agencies. In recent years, the fragmentation of public service delivery has affected the scope of IMC. Elected local government in the UK is now only one piece of a complex jigsaw of agencies that provides services to the public; whether it is with non-elected bodies, such as health authorities, public protection authorities (police and fire), voluntary nonprofit organisations or for-profit bodies, councils are expected to cooperate widely with agencies in their localities. Indeed, for projects such as regeneration and community renewal, councils may act as the coordinating agency but the success of such projects is measured by collaboration and partnership working (Davies 2002). To place these developments in context, IMC is an example of how, in spite of the fragmentation of traditional forms of government, councils work with other public service agencies and other councils through the medium of interagency partnerships, collaboration between organisations and a mixed economy of service providers. Such an analysis suggests that, following changes to the system of local government, contemporary forms of IMC are less dependent on vertical arrangements (top-down direction from central government) as they are replaced by horizontal modes (expansion of networks and partnership arrangements). Evidence suggests, however that central government continues to steer local authorities through the agency of inspectorates and regulatory bodies, and through policy initiatives, such as local strategic partnerships and local area agreements (Kelly 2006), thus questioning whether, in the case of UK local government, the shift from hierarchy to network and market solutions is less differentiated and transformation less complete than some literature suggests. Vertical or horizontal pressures may promote IMC, yet similar drivers may deter collaboration between local authorities. An example of negative vertical pressure was central government's change of the systems of local taxation during the 1980s. The new taxation regime replaced a tax on property with a tax on individual residency. Although the community charge lasted only a few years, it was a highpoint of the then Conservative government policy that encouraged councils to compete with each other on the basis of the level of local taxation. In practice, however, the complexity of local government funding in the UK rendered worthless any meaningful ambition of councils competing with each other, especially as central government granting to local authorities is predicated (however imperfectly) on at least notional equalisation between those areas with lower tax yields and the more prosperous locations. Horizontal pressures comprise factors such as planning decisions. Over the last quarter century, councils have competed on the granting of permission to out-of-town retail and leisure complexes, now recognised as detrimental to neighbouring authorities because economic forces prevail and local, independent shops are unable to compete with multiple companies. These examples illustrate tensions at the core of the UK polity of whether IMC is feasible when competition between local authorities heightened by local differences reduces opportunities for collaboration. An alternative perspective on IMC is to explore whether specific purposes or functions promote or restrict it. Whether in the principle areas of local government responsibilities relating to social welfare, development and maintenance of the local infrastructure or environmental matters, there are examples of IMC. But opportunities have diminished considerably as councils lost responsibility for services provision as a result of privatisation and transfer of powers to new government agencies or to central government. Over the last twenty years councils have lost their role in the provision of further-or higher-education, public transport and water/sewage. Councils have commissioning power but only a limited presence in providing housing needs, social care and waste management. In other words, as a result of central government policy, there are, in practice, currently far fewer opportunities for councils to cooperate. Since 1997, the New Labour government has promoted IMC through vertical drivers and the development; the operation of these policy initiatives is discussed following the framework of the editors. Current examples of IMC are notable for being driven by higher tiers of government, working with subordinate authorities in principal-agent relations. Collaboration between local authorities and intra-interand cross-sectoral partnerships are initiated by central government. In other words, IMC is shaped by hierarchical drivers from higher levels of government but, in practice, is locally varied and determined less by formula than by necessity and function. © 2007 Springer.

New investigations into macular pigment optical density

Macular pigment (MP) is the collective name for three carotenoids, lutein, zeaxanthin and meso-zeaxanthin, which are found at high concentrations in the central macula. The macular carotenoids, like all carotenoids, are entirely of dietary origin. The term ‘macular pigment optical density’ (MPOD) refers to the peak concentration of MP in the retina, which varies from one individual to the next and is measurable in vivo. On account of its blue-light-filtering and antioxidant properties, MP has become a subject of interest with respect to age-related macular degeneration (AMD), the hypothesis being that MP helps to protect against AMD; the higher the MPOD, the lower the risk for AMD. Recently, a new MPOD-measuring device, the MPS 9000 (MPS), entered the ophthalmic market. Using this device, the research described here aimed to contribute new information to the MP literature. A second MPOD instrument, the Macular Pigment Reflectometer, was also used at times, but a reliability study (included in the thesis) demonstrated that it was unsuitable for use on its own. First, a series of exploratory investigations were undertaken to maximize the accuracy and consistency of MPOD measurements taken with the MPS; a protocol was established that substantially improved repeatability. Subsequently, a series of MPOD-based studies were conducted on anisometropia, South Asian race, blue-light-filtering contact lenses, and dietary modification with kale. The principle findings were as follows: interocular MPOD differences were not attributable to interocular refractive error differences; young adults of South Asian origin had significant gender-related MPOD differences (males>females, p<0.01), and they also had significantly higher MPOD than Caucasians (p<0.0005); wearing blue-light-filtering contact lenses for eight months did not affect MPOD; and dietary modification with kale for 16 weeks did not increase MPOD. This body of research adds new insights to MP knowledge, which in turn may contribute to MP knowledge in the context of AMD.

Hidden state models for time series

Amongst all the objectives in the study of time series, uncovering the dynamic law of its generation is probably the most important. When the underlying dynamics are not available, time series modelling consists of developing a model which best explains a sequence of observations. In this thesis, we consider hidden space models for analysing and describing time series. We first provide an introduction to the principal concepts of hidden state models and draw an analogy between hidden Markov models and state space models. Central ideas such as hidden state inference or parameter estimation are reviewed in detail. A key part of multivariate time series analysis is identifying the delay between different variables. We present a novel approach for time delay estimating in a non-stationary environment. The technique makes use of hidden Markov models and we demonstrate its application for estimating a crucial parameter in the oil industry. We then focus on hybrid models that we call dynamical local models. These models combine and generalise hidden Markov models and state space models. Probabilistic inference is unfortunately computationally intractable and we show how to make use of variational techniques for approximating the posterior distribution over the hidden state variables. Experimental simulations on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the application of dynamical local models for segmenting a time series into regimes and providing predictive distributions.

The compressive creep and load relaxation properties of a series of high aluminium zinc-based alloys

A new family of commercial zinc alloys designated as ZA8, ZA12, and ZA27 and high damping capacity alloys including Cosmal and Supercosmal and aluminium alloy LM25 were investigated for compressive creep and load relaxation behaviour under a series of temperatures and stresses. A compressive creep machine was designed to test the sand cast hollow cylindrical test specimens of these alloys. For each compressive creep experiment the variation of creep strain was presented in the form of graphs plotted as percentage of creep strain () versus time in seconds (s). In all cases, the curves showed the same general form of the creep curve, i.e. a primary creep stage, followed by a linear steady-state region (secondary creep). In general, it was observed that alloy ZA8 had the least primary creep among the commercial zinc-based alloys and ZA27 the greatest. The extent of primary creep increased with aluminium content to that of ZA27 then declined to Supercosmal. The overall creep strength of ZA27 was generally less than ZA8 and ZA12 but it showed better creep strength than ZA8 and ZA12 at high temperature and high stress. In high damping capacity alloys, Supercosmal had less primary creep and longer secondary creep regions and also had the lowest minimum creep rate among all the tested alloys. LM25 exhibited almost no creep at maximum temperature and stress used in this research work. Total creep elongation was shown to be well correlated using an empirical equation. Stress exponent and activation energies were calculated and found to be consistent with the creep mechanism of dislocation climb. The primary α and β phases in the as-cast structures decomposed to lamellar phases on cooling, with some particulates at dendrite edges and grain boundaries. Further breakdown into particulate bodies occurred during creep testing, and zinc bands developed at the highest test temperature of 160°C. The results of load relaxation testing showed that initially load loss proceeded rapidly and then deminished gradually with time. Load loss increased with temperature and almost all the curves approximated to a logarithmic decay of preload with time. ZA alloys exhibited almost the same load loss at lower temperature, but at 120°C ZA27 improved its relative performance with the passage of time. High damping capacity alloys and LM25 had much better resistance to load loss than ZA alloys and LM25 was found to be the best against load loss among these alloys. A preliminary equation was derived to correlate the retained load with time and temperature.

The creep properties of a series of zinc-rich zinc-aluminium alloys

The compressive creep behaviour of six sand cast zinc-rich alloys: No3 and No5, corresponding to BS 1004A and BS 1004B, respectively, alloy No2, ILZRO,.16 and two newer alloys ACuZinc5 and ACuZinc10 was investigated. The total creep contraction of the alloys was found to be well correlated using an empirical equation. On the basis of this equation, a parametrical relationship was derived which allowed the total creep contraction to be related to the applied stress, the temperature and the time of test, so that a quantitative assessment of compressive creep of the alloys could be made under different testing conditions. The primary creep and secondary creep rates were found for the alloys at different temperatures and stresses. Generally, the primary creep contraction was found to increase with copper content, whereas secondary creep rates decreased in the order No3, ACuZinc10, ACuZinc5 and No2. ILZRO.16 was tested only at the highest stress and two higher temperatures. The results showed that ILZRO.16 had higher creep resistance than all the other alloys. Thus, based on the above empirical equation, alloy No2 was found to have a substantially better total creep resistance than alloys No3 and No5, and slightly better than ACuZinc5 and ACuZinc10 for strains up to 1%. Both ACuZinc alloys had higher creep strength than commercial alloys No3 and No5. Alloy No5 had much higher creep resistance than alloy No3 under all conditions. The superior creep resistance of alloy No2 was considered to be due to the presence of small precipitates of -phase in the zinc matrix and a regular eutectic morphology. The stress exponents and activation energies for creep under different testing conditions were found to be consistent with some established creep-controlling mechanisms; i.e. dislocation climb for alloy No3, dislocation climb over second phase particles for alloys No5, No2, ACuZinc10, controlled by lattice diffusion in the zinc-rich phase. The lower creep resistance of alloy No3 was mainly due to the lower creep strength of copper-free primary particles having greater volume than eutectic in the microstructure. Alloys No5, ACuZinc5 and ACuZinc10 showed much better creep resistance than alloy No3, based on the precipitation-hardening due to the presence of small -phase precipitates. The primary dendrites in both ACuZinc alloys however were not of much benefit in improving the creep resistance of the alloys.

Triassic stratigraphy and sedimentology in central England

The Triassic rocks of Central England consist of three major stratigraphic units: Sherwood Sandstone Group, Mercia Mudstone Group, and Penarth Group. The lower part of the Sherwood Sandstone Group represented by the Kidderminster, Cannock Chase, and Polesworth Formations represents pebbly braided river deposits carried by a major fluvial system flowing to the North-Northwest. The upper part of the Sherwood Sandstone Group includes the Wildmoor and Bromsgrove Sandstone Formations, the deposits of a sandy alluvial system. The Mercia Mudstone Group represents quiet-water deposits of marginal palya type which were subjected to occasional marine flooding. The overlying Penarth Group represent shallow marine and lagoonal environment associated with the Rhaetian marine transgression. The mineralogy of the Triassic sandstones indicates that the main source was from medium to low rank metamorphic rocks with additional supplies from igneous and metamorphic rocks. The study of size-composition trends shows that the climate was semiarid in early Triassic time and became more humid later. The Triassic sandstones show a variety of diagenetic features typical of continental red beds; these include: 1. the dissolution of unstable ferromagnesian silicates, 2. the replacement of detrital grains by clay, 3. the pseudomorphism of biotite by haematite, and 4. the formation of a suite of authigenic minerals including quartz, illite, mixed-layer illite-montmorillonite, kaolinite, k-feldspar, haematite, titanium oxide and later carbonate cement. Palaeomagnetic studies of selected samples show that the magnetization is muticomponent with the various components being carried by different textural phases of haematite.

Mesozoic to recent evolution of the Andean forearc of northern Chile (22-24 s)

The Andean forearc of northern Chile comprises four morphotectonic units, which include from east to west: 1) The Cordillera de la Costa: composed of Jurassic granites and andesites, thought to represent a volcanic arc, the Mejillones terrane, an accreted allochthonous terrane, and the Lower Cretaceous Coloso basin, which formed through forearc extension along the suture between the Mejillones terrane and the Jurassic arc. Palaeomagnetic studies of the above units have identified approximately 29+/-11 degrees of clockwise rotation. Rotation is due to extension (caused by subduction roll back and slab pull), at an angle to the direction of absolute motion of the South American Plate. 2) The Central Depression: a large arid basin containing isolated fault-bounded blocks of pre-Mesozoic metamorphosed igneous rocks, Triassic sediments and volcanics, and Jurassic carbonates, deposited in a. back-arc basin setting. The isolated blocks formed through extension along previous thrust faults, these originated through compression of the back-arc basin due to accretion of the Jurassic volcanic arc. 3) The Precordillera.: composed of Permian-Triassic rift-related sediments and volcanics, Jurassic continental sediments synchronous with back-arc basin sedimentation, and Cretaceous and Oligo-Miocene continental sediments deposited in foreland basins. Palaeomagnetism has identified clockwise rotation in rocks ranging in age from Jurassic-Miocene. Rotation in the Precordillera. affected larger structural blocks than in the Cordillera de la Costa. 4) The Salar Depression: a. series of arid continental basins developed on continental crust. These basins nay have originated in the Triassic, when rifting of the South American craton is thought to have taken place. In conclusion, palaeomagnetic and geological evidence is consistent with the view that the north Chilean forearc was largely under an extensional stress regime. However, the presence of extensive compressional structures in Palaeocene and older rocks in the forearc together with the currently active foreland thrust belt of Argentina. indicate that throughout the evolution of the Andean Orogen, a delicate balance between compressional and extensional tectonic regimes has existed.

Fracture toughness of a series of high chromium abrasion resistant alloys

The fracture properties of a series of alloys containing 15% chromium and 0.8 to 3.4% carbon are investigated using strain fracture toughness testing techniques. The object of the work is to apply a quantitative method of measuring toughness to abrasion resistant materials, which have previously been assessed on an empirical basis; and to examine the relationship between microstructure and K10 in an attempt to improve the toughness of inherently brittle materials. A review of the relevant literature includes discussion of the background to the alloy series under investigation, a survey of the development of fracture mechanics and the emergence of K10 as a toughness parameter. Metallurgical variables such as composition, heat treatment, grain size, and hot working are ???? to relate microstructure to toughness, and fractographic evidence is used to substantiate the findings. The results are applied to a model correlating ductile fracture with plastic strain instability, and the nucleation of voids. Strain induced martensite formation in austenitic structures is analysed in terms of the plastic energy dissipation mechanisms operating at the crack tip. Emphasis is placed on the lower carbon alloys in the series, and a composition put forward to optimise wear resistance and toughness. The properties of established competitive materials are compared to the proposed alloy on a toughness and cost basis.

Experiments in time:exploring the components of motor timing behaviour in dyslexia

This investigation aimed to pinpoint the elements of motor timing control that are responsible for the increased variability commonly found in children with developmental dyslexia on paced or unpaced motor timing tasks (Chapter 3). Such temporal processing abilities are thought to be important for developing the appropriate phonological representations required for the development of literacy skills. Similar temporal processing difficulties arise in other developmental disorders such as Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Motor timing behaviour in developmental populations was examined in the context of models of typical human timing behaviour, in particular the Wing-Kristofferson model, allowing estimation of the contribution of different timing control systems, namely timekeeper and implementation systems (Chapter 2 and Methods Chapters 4 and 5). Research examining timing in populations with dyslexia and ADHD has been inconsistent in the application of stimulus parameters and so the first investigation compared motor timing behaviour across different stimulus conditions (Chapter 6). The results question the suitability of visual timing tasks which produced greater performance variability than auditory or bimodal tasks. Following an examination of the validity of the Wing-Kristofferson model (Chapter 7) the model was applied to time series data from an auditory timing task completed by children with reading difficulties and matched control groups (Chapter 8). Expected group differences in timing performance were not found, however, associations between performance and measures of literacy and attention were present. Results also indicated that measures of attention and literacy dissociated in their relationships with components of timing, with literacy ability being correlated with timekeeper variance and attentional control with implementation variance. It is proposed that these timing deficits associated with reading difficulties are attributable to central timekeeping processes and so the contribution of error correction to timing performance was also investigated (Chapter 9). Children with lower scores on measures of literacy and attention were found to have a slower or failed correction response to phase errors in timing behaviour. Results from the series of studies suggest that the motor timing difficulty in poor reading children may stem from failures in the judgement of synchrony due to greater tolerance of uncertainty in the temporal processing system.

Reporting and managing risk:a look at current practice at Tesco, RBS, local and central government

These case studies from CIMA highlight the need to embed risk management within more easily understood behaviours, consistent with the overall organisational culture. In each case, some form of internal audit team provides either an oversight function or acts as an expert link in that feedback loop. Frontline staff, managers and specialists should be completely aligned on risk, in part just to ensure that there is a consistency of approach. They should understand instinctively that good performance includes good risk management. Tesco has continued to thrive during the recession and remains a robust and efficient group of businesses despite the emergence of potential threats around consumer spending and the supply chain. RBS, by contrast, has suffered catastrophic and very public failures of risk management despite a large in-house function and stiff regulation of risk controls. Birmingham City Council, like all local authorities, is adapting to more commercial modes of operation and is facing diverse threats and opportunities emerging as a result of social change. And DCMS, like many other public sector organisations, has to handle an incredibly complex network of delivery partners within the context of a relatively recent overhaul of central government risk management processes. Key Findings: •Risk management is no longer solely a financial discipline, nor is it simply a concern for the internal control function. •Where organisations retain a discrete risk management cadre – often specialists at monitoring and evaluating a range of risks – their success is dependent on embedding risk awareness in the wider culture of the enterprise. •Risk management is most successful when it is explicitly linked to operational performance. •Clear leadership, specific goals, excellent influencing skills and open-mindedness to potential threats and opportunities are essential for effective risk management. •Bureaucratic processes and systems can hamper good risk management – either as a result of a ‘box-ticking mentality’ or because managers and staff believe they do not need to consider risk themselves.

Development of a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of the rat central nervous system

Central nervous system (CNS) drug disposition is dictated by a drug’s physicochemical properties and its ability to permeate physiological barriers. The blood–brain barrier (BBB), blood-cerebrospinal fluid barrier and centrally located drug transporter proteins influence drug disposition within the central nervous system. Attainment of adequate brain-to-plasma and cerebrospinal fluid-to-plasma partitioning is important in determining the efficacy of centrally acting therapeutics. We have developed a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model of the rat CNS which incorporates brain interstitial fluid (ISF), choroidal epithelial and total cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) compartments and accurately predicts CNS pharmacokinetics. The model yielded reasonable predictions of unbound brain-to-plasma partition ratio (Kpuu,brain) and CSF:plasma ratio (CSF:Plasmau) using a series of in vitro permeability and unbound fraction parameters. When using in vitro permeability data obtained from L-mdr1a cells to estimate rat in vivo permeability, the model successfully predicted, to within 4-fold, Kpuu,brain and CSF:Plasmau for 81.5% of compounds simulated. The model presented allows for simultaneous simulation and analysis of both brain biophase and CSF to accurately predict CNS pharmacokinetics from preclinical drug parameters routinely available during discovery and development pathways.