Modelling and improving maintenance decisions:Having foresight with simulation and artificial intelligence

Machine breakdowns are one of the main sources of disruption and throughput fluctuation in highly automated production facilities. One element in reducing this disruption is ensuring that the maintenance team responds correctly to machine failures. It is, however, difficult to determine the current practice employed by the maintenance team, let alone suggest improvements to it. 'Knowledge based improvement' is a methodology that aims to address this issue, by (a) eliciting knowledge on current practice, (b) evaluating that practice and (c) looking for improvements. The methodology, based on visual interactive simulation and artificial intelligence methods, and its application to a Ford engine assembly facility are described. Copyright © 2002 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Knowledge based improvement:simulation and artificial intelligence for identifying and improving human decision-making in an operations systems

The performance of most operations systems is significantly affected by the interaction of human decision-makers. A methodology, based on the use of visual interactive simulation (VIS) and artificial intelligence (AI), is described that aims to identify and improve human decision-making in operations systems. The methodology, known as 'knowledge-based improvement' (KBI), elicits knowledge from a decision-maker via a VIS and then uses AI methods to represent decision-making. By linking the VIS and AI representation, it is possible to predict the performance of the operations system under different decision-making strategies and to search for improved strategies. The KBI methodology is applied to the decision-making surrounding unplanned maintenance operations at a Ford Motor Company engine assembly plant.

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

We compare two methods in order to predict inflation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture is evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

This paper compares two methods to predict in°ation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture are evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both.

Words and intelligence I:selected papers by Yorick Wilks

Yorick Wilks is a central figure in the fields of Natural Language Processing and Artificial Intelligence. His influence extends to many areas and includes contributions to Machines Translation, word sense disambiguation, dialogue modeling and Information Extraction. This book celebrates the work of Yorick Wilks in the form of a selection of his papers which are intended to reflect the range and depth of his work. The volume accompanies a Festschrift which celebrates his contribution to the fields of Computational Linguistics and Artificial Intelligence. The papers include early work carried out at Cambridge University, descriptions of groundbreaking work on Machine Translation and Preference Semantics as well as more recent works on belief modeling and computational semantics. The selected papers reflect Yorick’s contribution to both practical and theoretical aspects of automatic language processing.

Neural networks

An overview of neural networks, covering multilayer perceptrons, radial basis functions, constructive algorithms, Kohonen and K-means unupervised algorithms, RAMnets, first and second order training methods, and Bayesian regularisation methods.

Measurements of generalisation based on information geometry

Neural networks are statistical models and learning rules are estimators. In this paper a theory for measuring generalisation is developed by combining Bayesian decision theory with information geometry. The performance of an estimator is measured by the information divergence between the true distribution and the estimate, averaged over the Bayesian posterior. This unifies the majority of error measures currently in use. The optimal estimators also reveal some intricate interrelationships among information geometry, Banach spaces and sufficient statistics.

Stock selection with full-scale optimization and differential evolution

When composing stock portfolios, managers frequently choose among hundreds of stocks. The stocks' risk properties are analyzed with statistical tools, and managers try to combine these to meet the investors' risk profiles. A recently developed tool for performing such optimization is called full-scale optimization (FSO). This methodology is very flexible for investor preferences, but because of computational limitations it has until now been infeasible to use when many stocks are considered. We apply the artificial intelligence technique of differential evolution to solve FSO-type stock selection problems of 97 assets. Differential evolution finds the optimal solutions by self-learning from randomly drawn candidate solutions. We show that this search technique makes large scale problem computationally feasible and that the solutions retrieved are stable. The study also gives further merit to the FSO technique, as it shows that the solutions suit investor risk profiles better than portfolios retrieved from traditional methods.

Biomedical events extraction using the hidden vector state model

Objective: Biomedical events extraction concerns about events describing changes on the state of bio-molecules from literature. Comparing to the protein-protein interactions (PPIs) extraction task which often only involves the extraction of binary relations between two proteins, biomedical events extraction is much harder since it needs to deal with complex events consisting of embedded or hierarchical relations among proteins, events, and their textual triggers. In this paper, we propose an information extraction system based on the hidden vector state (HVS) model, called HVS-BioEvent, for biomedical events extraction, and investigate its capability in extracting complex events. Methods and material: HVS has been previously employed for extracting PPIs. In HVS-BioEvent, we propose an automated way to generate abstract annotations for HVS training and further propose novel machine learning approaches for event trigger words identification, and for biomedical events extraction from the HVS parse results. Results: Our proposed system achieves an F-score of 49.57% on the corpus used in the BioNLP'09 shared task, which is only 2.38% lower than the best performing system by UTurku in the BioNLP'09 shared task. Nevertheless, HVS-BioEvent outperforms UTurku's system on complex events extraction with 36.57% vs. 30.52% being achieved for extracting regulation events, and 40.61% vs. 38.99% for negative regulation events. Conclusions: The results suggest that the HVS model with the hierarchical hidden state structure is indeed more suitable for complex event extraction since it could naturally model embedded structural context in sentences.

Exploring ant-based algorithms for gene expression data analysis

Objective: Recently, much research has been proposed using nature inspired algorithms to perform complex machine learning tasks. Ant colony optimization (ACO) is one such algorithm based on swarm intelligence and is derived from a model inspired by the collective foraging behavior of ants. Taking advantage of the ACO in traits such as self-organization and robustness, this paper investigates ant-based algorithms for gene expression data clustering and associative classification. Methods and material: An ant-based clustering (Ant-C) and an ant-based association rule mining (Ant-ARM) algorithms are proposed for gene expression data analysis. The proposed algorithms make use of the natural behavior of ants such as cooperation and adaptation to allow for a flexible robust search for a good candidate solution. Results: Ant-C has been tested on the three datasets selected from the Stanford Genomic Resource Database and achieved relatively high accuracy compared to other classical clustering methods. Ant-ARM has been tested on the acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL)/acute myeloid leukemia (AML) dataset and generated about 30 classification rules with high accuracy. Conclusions: Ant-C can generate optimal number of clusters without incorporating any other algorithms such as K-means or agglomerative hierarchical clustering. For associative classification, while a few of the well-known algorithms such as Apriori, FP-growth and Magnum Opus are unable to mine any association rules from the ALL/AML dataset within a reasonable period of time, Ant-ARM is able to extract associative classification rules.

Semantic linking through spaces for cyber-physical-socio intelligence:a methodology

Humans consciously and subconsciously establish various links, emerge semantic images and reason in mind, learn linking effect and rules, select linked individuals to interact, and form closed loops through links while co-experiencing in multiple spaces in lifetime. Machines are limited in these abilities although various graph-based models have been used to link resources in the cyber space. The following are fundamental limitations of machine intelligence: (1) machines know few links and rules in the physical space, physiological space, psychological space, socio space and mental space, so it is not realistic to expect machines to discover laws and solve problems in these spaces; and, (2) machines can only process pre-designed algorithms and data structures in the cyber space. They are limited in ability to go beyond the cyber space, to learn linking rules, to know the effect of linking, and to explain computing results according to physical, physiological, psychological and socio laws. Linking various spaces will create a complex space — the Cyber-Physical-Physiological-Psychological-Socio-Mental Environment CP3SME. Diverse spaces will emerge, evolve, compete and cooperate with each other to extend machine intelligence and human intelligence. From multi-disciplinary perspective, this paper reviews previous ideas on various links, introduces the concept of cyber-physical society, proposes the ideal of the CP3SME including its definition, characteristics, and multi-disciplinary revolution, and explores the methodology of linking through spaces for cyber-physical-socio intelligence. The methodology includes new models, principles, mechanisms, scientific issues, and philosophical explanation. The CP3SME aims at an ideal environment for humans to live and work. Exploration will go beyond previous ideals on intelligence and computing.

Interactive semantics

Much research pursues machine intelligence through better representation of semantics. What is semantics? People in different areas view semantics from different facets although it accompanies interaction through civilization. Some researchers believe that humans have some innate structure in mind for processing semantics. Then, what the structure is like? Some argue that humans evolve a structure for processing semantics through constant learning. Then, how the process is like? Humans have invented various symbol systems to represent semantics. Can semantics be accurately represented? Turing machines are good at processing symbols according to algorithms designed by humans, but they are limited in ability to process semantics and to do active interaction. Super computers and high-speed networks do not help solve this issue as they do not have any semantic worldview and cannot reflect themselves. Can future cyber-society have some semantic images that enable machines and individuals (humans and agents) to reflect themselves and interact with each other with knowing social situation through time? This paper concerns these issues in the context of studying an interactive semantics for the future cyber-society. It firstly distinguishes social semantics from natural semantics, and then explores the interactive semantics in the category of social semantics. Interactive semantics consists of an interactive system and its semantic image, which co-evolve and influence each other. The semantic worldview and interactive semantic base are proposed as the semantic basis of interaction. The process of building and explaining semantic image can be based on an evolving structure incorporating adaptive multi-dimensional classification space and self-organized semantic link network. A semantic lens is proposed to enhance the potential of the structure and help individuals build and retrieve semantic images from different facets, abstraction levels and scales through time.

Words and intelligence II:essays in honor of Yorick Wilks

Yorick Wilks is a central figure in the fields of Natural Language Processing and Artificial Intelligence. His influence has extends to many areas of these fields and includes contributions to Machine Translation, word sense disambiguation, dialogue modeling and Information Extraction.This book celebrates the work of Yorick Wilks from the perspective of his peers. It consists of original chapters each of which analyses an aspect of his work and links it to current thinking in that area. His work has spanned over four decades but is shown to be pertinent to recent developments in language processing such as the Semantic Web.This volume forms a two-part set together with Words and Intelligence I, Selected Works by Yorick Wilks, by the same editors.

Evolving ambiguous images

This work explores the creation of ambiguous images, i.e., images that may induce multistable perception, by evolutionary means. Ambiguous images are created using a general purpose approach, composed of an expression-based evolutionary engine and a set of object detectors, which are trained in advance using Machine Learning techniques. Images are evolved using Genetic Programming and object detectors are used to classify them. The information gathered during classification is used to assign fitness. In a first stage, the system is used to evolve images that resemble a single object. In a second stage, the discovery of ambiguous images is promoted by combining pairs of object detectors. The analysis of the results highlights the ability of the system to evolve ambiguous images and the differences between computational and human ambiguous images.