Computation of rare transitions in the barotropic quasi-geostrophic equations

We investigate the theoretical and numerical computation of rare transitions in simple geophysical turbulent models. We consider the barotropic quasi-geostrophic and two-dimensional Navier–Stokes equations in regimes where bistability between two coexisting large-scale attractors exist. By means of large deviations and instanton theory with the use of an Onsager–Machlup path integral formalism for the transition probability, we show how one can directly compute the most probable transition path between two coexisting attractors analytically in an equilibrium (Langevin) framework and numerically otherWe adapt a class of numerical optimization algorithms known as minimum action methods to simple geophysical turbulent models. We show that by numerically minimizing an appropriate action functional in a large deviation limit, one can predict the most likely transition path for a rare transition between two states. By considering examples where theoretical predictions can be made, we show that the minimum action method successfully predicts the most likely transition path. Finally, we discuss the application and extension of such numerical optimization schemes to the computation of rare transitions observed in direct numerical simulations and experiments and to other, more complex, turbulent systems.

The adoption of value-based management in large UK companies:a case for diffusion theory

Purpose – In the 1990s, a growing number of companies adopted value-based management (VBM) techniques in the UK. The purpose of this paper is to explore the motivations for the adoption or non-adoption of VBM for managing a business. Design/methodology/approach – An interview-based study of 37 large UK companies. Insights from diffusion theory and institutional theory are utilised to theorise these motivations. Findings – It was found that the rate of adoption of VBM in the sample companies does follow the classical S-shape. It also suggests that the supply-side of the diffusion process, most notably the role played by consultants, was an influence on many companies. This was not, however, a sufficient condition for companies to adopt the technique. The research also finds evidence of relocation diffusion, as several adopters are influenced by new officers, for example chief executive officers and finance directors, importing VBM techniques that they have used in organizations within which they have previously worked. Research limitations/implications – It is quite a small scale study and further work would be needed to develop the findings. Practical implications – Understanding and theorising the adoption of new management techniques will help understand the management of a business. Originality/value – This research adds further evidence to the value of studying management accounting, and more specifically management accounting change, in practice. It shows the developments in the adoption of a new technique and hence how a technique becomes accepted in practice.

Advanced mean field methods:theory and practice

A major problem in modern probabilistic modeling is the huge computational complexity involved in typical calculations with multivariate probability distributions when the number of random variables is large. Because exact computations are infeasible in such cases and Monte Carlo sampling techniques may reach their limits, there is a need for methods that allow for efficient approximate computations. One of the simplest approximations is based on the mean field method, which has a long history in statistical physics. The method is widely used, particularly in the growing field of graphical models. Researchers from disciplines such as statistical physics, computer science, and mathematical statistics are studying ways to improve this and related methods and are exploring novel application areas. Leading approaches include the variational approach, which goes beyond factorizable distributions to achieve systematic improvements; the TAP (Thouless-Anderson-Palmer) approach, which incorporates correlations by including effective reaction terms in the mean field theory; and the more general methods of graphical models. Bringing together ideas and techniques from these diverse disciplines, this book covers the theoretical foundations of advanced mean field methods, explores the relation between the different approaches, examines the quality of the approximation obtained, and demonstrates their application to various areas of probabilistic modeling.

Variable impedance bearings for large rotating machinery

This thesis describes an investigation which was carried out under the Interdisciplinary Higher Degres (IHD) Scheme of The University of Aston in Birmingham. The investigation, which involved joint collaboration between the IHD scheme, the Department of Mechanical Engineering, and G.E.C. Turbine Generators Limited, was concerned with hydrostatic bearing characteristics and of how hydrostatic bearings could be used to enable turbine generator rotor support impedances to be controlled to give an improved rotor dynamic response. Turbine generator rotor critical speeds are determined not only by the mass and flexibility of the rotor itself, which are relatively easily predicted, but also by the dynamic characteristics of the bearing oil film, pedestal, and foundations. It is because of the difficulty in accurately predicting the rotor support characteristics that the designer has a problem in ensuring that a rotor's normal running speed is not close to one of its critical speeds. The consequence of this situation is that some rotors do have critical speeds close to their normal running speed and the resulting high levels of vibration cause noise, high rotor stresses, and a shortening of bearing life. A combined theoretical and experimental investigation of the effects of mounting the normal rotor journal bearing in a hydrostatic bearing was carried out. The purpose of the work was to show that by changing the oil flow resistance offered by capillaries connecting accumulators to the hydrostatic bearing, the overall rotor support characteristics could be tuned to enable rotor critical speeds to be moved at will. Testing of a combined journal and hydrostatic bearing has confirmed the theory of its operation and a theoretical study of a full size machine showed that its critical speed could be moved by over 350 rpm and that its rotor vibration at running speed could be reduced by 80%.

The management of diversification in a large industrial company

This work is the result of an action-research-type study of the diversification effort of part of a major U.K. industrial company. Work in contingency theory concerning the impact of environmental factors on organizational design, and the systemic model of viable systems put forward by Stafford Beer form the theoretical basis of the vvork. The two streams of thought are compared and found to offer similar conclusions about the design of effective organizations. These findings are taken as the framework for an analysis both of organization structures for promoting innovation described in the literature, and of those employed by the company for this purpose in recent years. Much attention is given to the use of venture groups, and conclusions are drawn on particular factors which may influence their success or failure. Both theoretical considerations, and the examination of the company' s recent experience suggested that the formation of the policy of diversification, as well as the method of implementation of the police, might affect its outcorre. Attention is therefore focused on the policy-making and planning process, and in particular on possible problems that this process could generate in a multi-division company. The view finally taken of diversification effort is that it should be regarded as a learning system. This view helps to expose some ambiguities in the concepts of success and failure in this area, and demonstrates considerable weaknesses in traditional project evaluation procedures.

The role of line managers in employee career management:an attachment theory perspective

Line managers increasingly play a key role in organizational career development systems, yet few studies have examined the nature of this role or its implications for employee career attitudes and behaviors. In two studies, we used attachment theory to explore this issue. In Study 1, in-depth interviews (N = 20) showed that employees viewed career management as a relational process in which line managers are expected to act as ‘caregiver’ to support individualized career development. Study 2 was a large-scale international survey (N = 891). Participants scoring higher on attachment avoidance in their line manager relationships reported more negative perceptions of career growth opportunities, lower participation in organizational career development activities and higher turnover intentions. Trust in the organization partially mediated the relationship. Theoretical and practical implications for HRM are discussed.

Human resource development for inclusive procurement by intermediation:a situated learning theory application

This paper fills an important gap in the human resource development (HRD) literature by considering the role that NGO intermediation initiatives can play in bringing together and developing corporate procurement officials (CPOs) and ethnic minority business owner-managers (EMBOs) supplying goods and services. It has been suggested that such initiatives hold great promise in helping ethnic minority businesses escape from their disadvantageous sectoral concentration in the UK. Using situated learning theory as an application lens, the main aim of this paper is to demonstrate how nurturing communities of practice of CPOs and EMBOs and facilitating their interaction can help their professional development and their approaches to procuring and supplying, respectively. The paper reports on the authors' experience with an action research programme encompassing two intermediation initiatives of this kind. The lessons drawn from this study are useful for all those concerned with HRD for inclusive procurement; intermediaries promoting inclusive procurement, large procurers who are willing to engage with supplier diversity and ethnic minority suppliers who wish to access corporate procurement systems and 'break-out'. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

How well do the theory of reasoned action and theory of planned behaviour predict intentions and attendance at screening programmes? A meta-analysis

Meta-analysis was used to quantify how well the Theories of Reasoned Action and Planned Behaviour have predicted intentions to attend screening programmes and actual attendance behaviour. Systematic literature searches identified 33 studies that were included in the review. Across the studies as a whole, attitudes had a large-sized relationship with intention, while subjective norms and perceived behavioural control (PBC) possessed medium-sized relationships with intention. Intention had a medium-sized relationship with attendance, whereas the PBC-attendance relationship was small sized. Due to heterogeneity in results between studies, moderator analyses were conducted. The moderator variables were (a) type of screening test, (b) location of recruitment, (c) screening cost and (d) invitation to screen. All moderators affected theory of planned behaviour relationships. Suggestions for future research emerging from these results include targeting attitudes to promote intention to screen, a greater use of implementation intentions in screening information and examining the credibility of different screening providers.

Service quality of frontline employees:a profile deviation analysis

Using a configuration theory approach, this paper conducts a comparative study between frontline employees in phone and face-to-face service encounters for a retail bank. The study compares the top performers in service quality in relation to three components of organizational commitment and their demographics by applying a profile deviation analysis. The results show that the profile deviation for face-to-face employees is significantly negative, while for call center employees nonsignificant. Although the study finds no significant differences in the three components of commitment, significant differences exist in the total experience and age of the best performers. Also, affective commitment dominates the profile of high performers, while poor service providers seem to exhibit a higher level of continuance commitment. This study demonstrates the utility of profile deviation approaches in designing internal marketing strategies.

An examination of the Prandtl mechanism in large dimension slope failures

An alternative explanation for the modes of failure of large scale failures of open pit walls to those of classical slope stability theory is proposed that makes use of the concept of a transition zone, which is described by a modified Prandtls prism.

Ownership structure and investment finance in transition economies:a survey of evidence from large firms in Hungary and Poland

Using survey data on 157 large private Hungarian and Polish companies this paper investigates links between ownership structures and CEOs’ expectations with regard to sources of finance for investment. The Bayesian estimation is used to deal with the small sample restrictions, while classical methods provide robustness checks. We found a hump-shaped relationship between ownership concentration and expectations of relying on public equity. The latter is most likely for firms where the largest investor owns between 25 percent and 49 percent of shares, just below the legal control threshold. More profitable firms rely on retained earnings for their investment finance, consistent with the ‘pecking order’ theory of financing. Finally, firms for which the largest shareholder is a domestic institutional investor are more likely to borrow from domestic banks.

Originator or propagator? Incorporating social role theory into topic models for twitter content analysis

A large number of studies have been devoted to modeling the contents and interactions between users on Twitter. In this paper, we propose a method inspired from Social Role Theory (SRT), which assumes that a user behaves differently in different roles in the generation process of Twitter content. We consider the two most distinctive social roles on Twitter: originator and propagator, who respectively posts original messages and retweets or forwards the messages from others. In addition, we also consider role-specific social interactions, especially implicit interactions between users who share some common interests. All the above elements are integrated into a novel regularized topic model. We evaluate the proposed method on real Twitter data. The results show that our method is more effective than the existing ones which do not distinguish social roles. Copyright 2013 ACM.

A world full of surprises:Bayesian theory of surprise to quantify degrees of uncertainty

In the specific area of software engineering (SE) for self-adaptive systems (SASs) there is a growing research awareness about the synergy between SE and artificial intelligence (AI). However, just few significant results have been published so far. In this paper, we propose a novel and formal Bayesian definition of surprise as the basis for quantitative analysis to measure degrees of uncertainty and deviations of self-adaptive systems from normal behavior. A surprise measures how observed data affects the models or assumptions of the world during runtime. The key idea is that a "surprising" event can be defined as one that causes a large divergence between the belief distributions prior to and posterior to the event occurring. In such a case the system may decide either to adapt accordingly or to flag that an abnormal situation is happening. In this paper, we discuss possible applications of Bayesian theory of surprise for the case of self-adaptive systems using Bayesian dynamic decision networks. Copyright © 2014 ACM.

Credibility theory-based available transfer capability assessment

Since the development of large scale power grid interconnections and power markets, research on available transfer capability (ATC) has attracted great attention. The challenges for accurate assessment of ATC originate from the numerous uncertainties in electricity generation, transmission, distribution and utilization sectors. Power system uncertainties can be mainly described as two types: randomness and fuzziness. However, the traditional transmission reliability margin (TRM) approach only considers randomness. Based on credibility theory, this paper firstly built models of generators, transmission lines and loads according to their features of both randomness and fuzziness. Then a random fuzzy simulation is applied, along with a novel method proposed for ATC assessment, in which both randomness and fuzziness are considered. The bootstrap method and multi-core parallel computing technique are introduced to enhance the processing speed. By implementing simulation for the IEEE-30-bus system and a real-life system located in Northwest China, the viability of the models and the proposed method is verified.

Theory of hybrid computational and physical measurement-based integration of thermal and dimensional measurement

In dimensional metrology, often the largest source of uncertainty of measurement is thermal variation. Dimensional measurements are currently scaled linearly, using ambient temperature measurements and coefficients of thermal expansion, to ideal metrology conditions at 20˚C. This scaling is particularly difficult to implement with confidence in large volumes as the temperature is unlikely to be uniform, resulting in thermal gradients. A number of well-established computational methods are used in the design phase of product development for the prediction of thermal and gravitational effects, which could be used to a greater extent in metrology. This paper outlines the theory of how physical measurements of dimension and temperature can be combined more comprehensively throughout the product lifecycle, from design through to the manufacturing phase. The Hybrid Metrology concept is also introduced: an approach to metrology, which promises to improve product and equipment integrity in future manufacturing environments. The Hybrid Metrology System combines various state of the art physical dimensional and temperature measurement techniques with established computational methods to better predict thermal and gravitational effects.