The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Assessment of the impact of discharges from surface water sewers on receiving water quality

A broad based approach has been used to assess the impact of discharges to rivers from surface water sewers, with the primary objective of determining whether such discharges have a measurable impact on water quality. Three parameters, each reflecting the effects of intermittent pollution, were included in a field work programme of biological and chemical sampling and analysis which covered 47 sewer outfall sites. These parameters were the numbers and types of benthic macroinvertebrates upstream and downstream of the outfalls, the concentrations of metals in sediments, and the concentrations of metals in algae upstream and downstream of the outfalls. Information on the sewered catchments was collected from Local Authorities and by observation of the time of sampling, and includes catchment areas, land uses, evidence of connection to the foul system, and receiving water quality classification. The methods used for site selection, sampling, laboratory analysis and data analysis are fully described, and the survey results presented. Statistical and graphical analysis of the biological data, with the aid of BMWP scores, showed that there was a small but persistent fall in water quality downstream of the studied outfalls. Further analysis including the catchment information indicated that initial water quality, sewered catchment size, receiving stream size, and catchment land use were important factors in determining the impact. Finally, the survey results were used to produce guidelines for the estimation of surface water sewer discharge impacts from knowledge of the catchment characteristics, so that planning authorities can consider water quality when new drainage systems are designed.

Background levels of urban land contamination

The research work reported in this thesis is concerned with the development and application of an urban scale sampling methodology for measuring and assessing background levels of heavy metal soil contamination in large and varied urban areas. The policy context of the work is broadly the environmental health problems posed by contaminated land and their implications for urban development planning. Within this wider policy context, the emphasis in the research has been placed on issues, related to the determination and application of 'guidelines' for assessing the significance of contaminated land for environmental planning. In concentrating on background levels of land contamination, the research responds to the need for additional techniques which address both the problems of measuring soil contamination at the urban scale and which are also capable of providing detailed information for use in the assessment of contaminated sites. Therefore, a key component of the work has been the development of a land-use based sampling framework for generating spatially comprehensive data on heavy metals in soil. The utility of the information output of the sampling method is demonstrated in two alternative ways. Firstly, it has been used to map the existing pattern of typical levels of heavy metals in urban soils. Secondly, it can be used to generate both generalised data in the form of 'reference levels' from which the overall significance of .background contamination may be assessed and detailed data, termed 'normal limit levels' for use in the assessment of site specific investigation data. The fieldwork was conducted in the West Midlands Metropolitan County and surface soil has been sampled and analysed for a measure of plant-available' and 'total' lead cadmium, copper and zinc. The research contrasts with much of the previous work on contaminated land which has generally concentrated on either the detailed investigation of individual sites suspected of being contaminated or the appraisal of land contamination resulting from specific point sources.

Assessment of time frequency warping for use as a reference degradation for assessing synthetic speech

At present there is no standard assessment method for rating and comparing the quality of synthesized speech. This study assesses the suitability of Time Frequency Warping (TFW) modulation for use as a reference device for assessing synthesized speech. Time Frequency Warping modulation introduces timing errors into natural speech that produce perceptual errors similar to those found in synthetic speech. It is proposed that TFW modulation used in conjunction with a listening effort test would provide a standard assessment method for rating the quality of synthesized speech. This study identifies the most suitable TFW modulation variable parameter to be used for assessing synthetic speech and assess the results of several assessment tests that rate examples of synthesized speech in terms of the TFW variable parameter and listening effort. The study also attempts to identify the attributes of speech that differentiate synthetic, TFW modulated and natural speech.

Integrated assessment of bioelectricity technology options

Power generation from biomass is a sustainable energy technology which can contribute to substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, but with greater potential for environmental, economic and social impacts than most other renewable energy technologies. It is important therefore in assessing bioenergy systems to take account of not only technical, but also environmental, economic and social parameters on a common basis. This work addresses the challenge of analysing, quantifying and comparing these factors for bioenergy power generation systems. A life-cycle approach is used to analyse the technical, environmental, economic and social impacts of entire bioelectricity systems, with a number of life-cycle indicators as outputs to facilitate cross-comparison. The results show that similar greenhouse gas savings are achieved with the wide variety of technologies and scales studied, but land-use efficiency of greenhouse gas savings and specific airborne emissions varied substantially. Also, while specific investment costs and electricity costs vary substantially from one system to another the number of jobs created per unit of electricity delivered remains roughly constant. Recorded views of stakeholders illustrate that diverging priorities exist for different stakeholder groups and this will influence appropriate choice of bioenergy systems for different applications.

Suitability of dysphonia measurements for telemonitoring of Parkinson's disease

We present an assessment of the practical value of existing traditional and non-standard measures for discriminating healthy people from people with Parkinson's disease (PD) by detecting dysphonia. We introduce a new measure of dysphonia, Pitch Period Entropy (PPE), which is robust to many uncontrollable confounding effects including noisy acoustic environments and normal, healthy variations in voice frequency. We collected sustained phonations from 31 people, 23 with PD. We then selected 10 highly uncorrelated measures, and an exhaustive search of all possible combinations of these measures finds four that in combination lead to overall correct classification performance of 91.4%, using a kernel support vector machine. In conclusion, we find that non-standard methods in combination with traditional harmonics-to-noise ratios are best able to separate healthy from PD subjects. The selected non-standard methods are robust to many uncontrollable variations in acoustic environment and individual subjects, and are thus well-suited to telemonitoring applications.

Open-source mapping and services for Web-based land-cover validation

Monitoring land-cover changes on sites of conservation importance allows environmental problems to be detected, solutions to be developed and the effectiveness of actions to be assessed. However, the remoteness of many sites or a lack of resources means these data are frequently not available. Remote sensing may provide a solution, but large-scale mapping and change detection may not be appropriate, necessitating site-level assessments. These need to be easy to undertake, rapid and cheap. We present an example of a Web-based solution based on free and open-source software and standards (including PostGIS, OpenLayers, Web Map Services, Web Feature Services and GeoServer) to support assessments of land-cover change (and validation of global land-cover maps). Authorised users are provided with means to assess land-cover visually and may optionally provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in an assessment to a quantification of the proportions of land-cover types within a reference area. Versions of this tool have been developed for the TREES-3 initiative (Simonetti, Beuchle and Eva, 2011). This monitors tropical land-cover change through ground-truthing at latitude / longitude degree confluence points, and for monitoring of change within and around Important Bird Areas (IBAs) by Birdlife International and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB). In this paper we present results from the second of these applications. We also present further details on the potential use of the land-cover change assessment tool on sites of recognised conservation importance, in combination with NDVI and other time series data from the eStation (a system for receiving, processing and disseminating environmental data). We show how the tool can be used to increase the usability of earth observation data by local stakeholders and experts, and assist in evaluating the impact of protection regimes on land-cover change.

Representing the assessment process for psychodynamic psychotherapy within a computerized model of human classification

This research describes a computerized model of human classification which has been constructed to represent the process by which assessments are made for psychodynamic psychotherapy. The model assigns membership grades (MGs) to clients so that the most suitable ones have high values in the therapy category. Categories consist of a hierarchy of components, one of which, ego strength, is analysed in detail to demonstrate the way it has captured the psychotherapist's knowledge. The bottom of the hierarchy represents the measurable factors being assessed during an interview. A questionnaire was created to gather the identified information and was completed by the psychotherapist after each assessment. The results were fed into the computerized model, demonstrating a high correlation between the model MGs and the suitability ratings of the psychotherapist (r = .825 for 24 clients). The model has successfully identified the relevant data involved in assessment and simulated the decision-making process of the expert. Its cognitive validity enables decisions to be explained, which means that it has potential for therapist training and also for enhancing the referral process, with benefits in cost effectiveness as well as in the reduction of trauma to clients. An adapted version measuring client improvement would give quantitative evidence for the benefit of therapy, thereby supporting auditing and accountability. © 1997 The British Psychological Society.

Geographical variation in carbon dioxide fluxes from soils in agro-ecosystems and its implications for life-cycle assessment

1. Exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soils can contribute significantly to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Due to variations in soil type, climatic onditions and land management practices, exchange of CO2 can differ markedly in different geographical locations. The food industry is developing carbon footprints for their products necessitating integration of CO2 exchange from soils with other CO2 emissions along the food chain. It may be advantageous to grow certain crops in different geographical locations to minimize CO2 emissions from the soil, and this may provide potential to offset other emissions in the food chain, such as transport. 2. Values are derived for the C balance of soils growing horticultural crops in the UK, Spain and Uganda. Net ecosystem production (NEP) is firstly calculated from the difference in net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). Both NPP and Rh were estimated from intensive direct field measurements. Secondly, net biome production (NBP) is calculated by subtracting the crop biomass from NEP to give an indication of C balance. The importance of soil exchange is discussed in the light of recent discussions on carbon footprints and within the context of food life-cycle assessment (LCA). 3. The amount of crop relative to the biomass and the Rh prevailing in the different countries were the dominant factors influencing the magnitude of NEP and NBP. The majority of the biomass for lettuce Lactuca sativa and vining peas Pisum sativum, was removed from the field as crop; therefore, NEP and NBP were mainly negative. This was amplified for lettuces grown in Uganda (-16·5 and -17 t C ha-1 year-1 compared to UK and Spain -4·8 to 7·4 and -5·1 to 6·3 t C ha-1 year-1 for NEP and NBP, respectively) where the climate elevated Rh. 4. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates the importance of soil emissions in the overall life cycle of vegetables. Variability in such emissions suggests that assigning a single value to food carbon footprints may not be adequate, even within a country. Locations with high heterotrophic soil respiration, such as Spain and Uganda (21·9 and 21·6 t C ha-1 year-1, respectively), could mitigate the negative effects of climate on the C costs of crop production by growth of crops with greater returns of residue to the soil. This would minimize net CO2 emissions from these agricultural ecosystems.

Usability of VGI for validation of land cover maps

Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) represents a growing source of potentially valuable data for many applications, including land cover map validation. It is still an emerging field and many different approaches can be used to take value from VGI, but also many pros and cons are related to its use. Therefore, since it is timely to get an overview of the subject, the aim of this article is to review the use of VGI as reference data for land cover map validation. The main platforms and types of VGI that are used and that are potentially useful are analysed. Since quality is a fundamental issue in map validation, the quality procedures used by the platforms that collect VGI to increase and control data quality are reviewed and a framework for addressing VGI quality assessment is proposed. A review of cases where VGI was used as an additional data source to assist in map validation is made, as well as cases where only VGI was used, indicating the procedures used to assess VGI quality and fitness for use. A discussion and some conclusions are drawn on best practices, future potential and the challenges of the use of VGI for land cover map validation.