The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Computer automation of land evaluation procedures

This study was concerned with the computer automation of land evaluation. This is a broad subject with many issues to be resolved, so the study concentrated on three key problems: knowledge based programming; the integration of spatial information from remote sensing and other sources; and the inclusion of socio-economic information into the land evaluation analysis. Land evaluation and land use planning were considered in the context of overseas projects in the developing world. Knowledge based systems were found to provide significant advantages over conventional programming techniques for some aspects of the land evaluation process. Declarative languages, in particular Prolog, were ideally suited to integration of social information which changes with every situation. Rule-based expert system shells were also found to be suitable for this role, including knowledge acquisition at the interview stage. All the expert system shells examined suffered from very limited constraints to problem size, but new products now overcome this. Inductive expert system shells were useful as a guide to knowledge gaps and possible relationships, but the number of examples required was unrealistic for typical land use planning situations. The accuracy of classified satellite imagery was significantly enhanced by integrating spatial information on soil distribution for Thailand data. Estimates of the rice producing area were substantially improved (30% change in area) by the addition of soil information. Image processing work on Mozambique showed that satellite remote sensing was a useful tool in stratifying vegetation cover at provincial level to identify key development areas, but its full utility could not be realised on typical planning projects, without treatment as part of a complete spatial information system.

Lexical database enrichment through semi-automated morphological analysis

Derivational morphology proposes meaningful connections between words and is largely unrepresented in lexical databases. This thesis presents a project to enrich a lexical database with morphological links and to evaluate their contribution to disambiguation. A lexical database with sense distinctions was required. WordNet was chosen because of its free availability and widespread use. Its suitability was assessed through critical evaluation with respect to specifications and criticisms, using a transparent, extensible model. The identification of serious shortcomings suggested a portable enrichment methodology, applicable to alternative resources. Although 40% of the most frequent words are prepositions, they have been largely ignored by computational linguists, so addition of prepositions was also required. The preferred approach to morphological enrichment was to infer relations from phenomena discovered algorithmically. Both existing databases and existing algorithms can capture regular morphological relations, but cannot capture exceptions correctly; neither of them provide any semantic information. Some morphological analysis algorithms are subject to the fallacy that morphological analysis can be performed simply by segmentation. Morphological rules, grounded in observation and etymology, govern associations between and attachment of suffixes and contribute to defining the meaning of morphological relationships. Specifying character substitutions circumvents the segmentation fallacy. Morphological rules are prone to undergeneration, minimised through a variable lexical validity requirement, and overgeneration, minimised by rule reformulation and restricting monosyllabic output. Rules take into account the morphology of ancestor languages through co-occurrences of morphological patterns. Multiple rules applicable to an input suffix need their precedence established. The resistance of prefixations to segmentation has been addressed by identifying linking vowel exceptions and irregular prefixes. The automatic affix discovery algorithm applies heuristics to identify meaningful affixes and is combined with morphological rules into a hybrid model, fed only with empirical data, collected without supervision. Further algorithms apply the rules optimally to automatically pre-identified suffixes and break words into their component morphemes. To handle exceptions, stoplists were created in response to initial errors and fed back into the model through iterative development, leading to 100% precision, contestable only on lexicographic criteria. Stoplist length is minimised by special treatment of monosyllables and reformulation of rules. 96% of words and phrases are analysed. 218,802 directed derivational links have been encoded in the lexicon rather than the wordnet component of the model because the lexicon provides the optimal clustering of word senses. Both links and analyser are portable to an alternative lexicon. The evaluation uses the extended gloss overlaps disambiguation algorithm. The enriched model outperformed WordNet in terms of recall without loss of precision. Failure of all experiments to outperform disambiguation by frequency reflects on WordNet sense distinctions.

Analysis and simulation of computer controlled cellular mobile radio systems

Cellular mobile radio systems will be of increasing importance in the future. This thesis describes research work concerned with the teletraffic capacity and the canputer control requirements of such systems. The work involves theoretical analysis and experimental investigations using digital computer simulation. New formulas are derived for the congestion in single-cell systems in which there are both land-to-mobile and mobile-to-mobile calls and in which mobile-to-mobile calls go via the base station. Two approaches are used, the first yields modified forms of the familiar Erlang and Engset formulas, while the second gives more complicated but more accurate formulas. The results of computer simulations to establish the accuracy of the formulas are described. New teletraffic formulas are also derived for the congestion in multi -cell systems. Fixed, dynamic and hybrid channel assignments are considered. The formulas agree with previously published simulation results. Simulation programs are described for the evaluation of the speech traffic of mobiles and for the investigation of a possible computer network for the control of the speech traffic. The programs were developed according to the structured progranming approach leading to programs of modular construction. Two simulation methods are used for the speech traffic: the roulette method and the time-true method. The first is economical but has some restriction, while the second is expensive but gives comprehensive answers. The proposed control network operates at three hierarchical levels performing various control functions which include: the setting-up and clearing-down of calls, the hand-over of calls between cells and the address-changing of mobiles travelling between cities. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the control netwvork and indicate that small mini -computers inter-connected via voice grade data channels would be capable of providing satisfactory control

Statnote 10: the two-way analysis of variance

The two-way design has been variously described as a matched-sample F-test, a simple within-subjects ANOVA, a one-way within-groups ANOVA, a simple correlated-groups ANOVA, and a one-factor repeated measures design! This confusion of terminology is likely to lead to problems in correctly identifying this analysis within commercially available software. The essential feature of the design is that each treatment is allocated by randomization to one experimental unit within each group or block. The block may be a plot of land, a single occasion in which the experiment was performed, or a human subject. The ‘blocking’ is designed to remove an aspect of the error variation and increase the ‘power’ of the experiment. If there is no significant source of variation associated with the ‘blocking’ then there is a disadvantage to the two-way design because there is a reduction in the DF of the error term compared with a fully randomised design thus reducing the ‘power’ of the analysis.

Computer aided design and analysis of cold formed sections

The work reported in this thesis is concerned with the improvement and expansion of the assistance given to the designer by the computer in the design of cold formed sections. The main contributions have been in four areas, which have consequently led to the fifth, the development of a methodology to optimise designs. This methodology can be considered an `Expert Design System' for cold formed sections. A different method of determining section properties of profiles was introduced, using the properties of line and circular elements. Graphics were introduced to show the outline of the profile on screen. The analysis of beam loading has been expanded to beam loading conditions where the number of supports, point loads, and uniform distributive loads can be specified by the designer. The profile can then be checked for suitability for the specified type of loading. Artificial Intelligence concepts have been introduced to give the designer decision support from the computer, in combination with the computer aided design facilities. The more complex decision support was adopted through the use of production rules. All the support was based on the British standards. A method has been introduced, by which the appropriate use of stiffeners can be determined and consequently designed by the designer. Finally, the methodology by which the designer is given assistance from the computer, without constraining the designer, was developed. This methodology gives advice to the designer on possible methods of improving the design, but allows the designer to reject that option, and analyse the profile accordingly. The methodology enables optimisation to be achieved by the designer, designing variety of profiles for a particular loading, and determining which one is best suited.

Remote sensing applied to land use and erosion hazard studies in Jamaica

The northern half of the parish of St. Catherine in Jamaica was selected as a test area to study, by means of remote sensing, the problems of soil erosion in a tropical environment. An initial study was carried out to determine whether eroded land within this environment could be successfully interpreted and mapped from the available 1: 25,000 scale aerial photographs. When satisfied that a sufficiently high percentage of the eroded land could be interpreted on the aerial photographs the main study was initiated. This involved interpreting the air photo cover of the study area for identifying and classifying land use and eroded land, and plotting the results on overlays on topographic base maps. These overlays were then composited with data on the soils and slopes of the study area. The areas of different soil type/slope/land use combinations were then measured, as was the area of eroded land for each of these combinations. This data was then analysed in two ways. The first way involved determining which of the combinations of soil type, slope and land use were most and least eroded and, on the basis of this, to draw up recommendations concerning future land use. The second analysis was aimed at determining which of the three factors, soil type, slope and land use, was most responsible for determining the rate of erosion. Although it was possible to show that slope was not very significant in determining the rate of erosion, it was much more difficult to separate the effects of land use and soil type. The results do, however, suggest that land use is more significant than soil type in determining the rate of erosion within the study area.

A speech analysis system for use in educational research

This thesis describes work undertaken in order to fulfil a need experienced in the Department of Educational Enquiry at the University of Aston in Birmingham for speech analysis facilities suitable for use in teaching and research work within the Department. The hardware and software developed during the research project provides displays of speech fundamental frequency and intensity in real time. The system is suitable for the provision of visual feedback of these parameters of a subject's speech in a learning situation, and overcomes the inadequacies of equipment currently used for this task in that it provides a clear indication of fundamental frequency contours as the subject is speaking. The thesis considers the use of such equipment in several related fields, and the approaches that have been reported to one of the major problems of speech analysis, namely pitch-period estimation. A number of different systems are described, and their suitability for the present purposes is discussed. Finally, a novel method of pitch-period estimation is developed, and a speech analysis system incorporating this method is described. Comparison is made between the results produced by this system and those produced by a conventional speech spectrograph.

Vibration analysis of a printed circuit board

The reliability of the printed circuit board assembly under dynamic environments, such as those found onboard airplanes, ships and land vehicles is receiving more attention. This research analyses the dynamic characteristics of the printed circuit board (PCB) supported by edge retainers and plug-in connectors. By modelling the wedge retainer and connector as providing simply supported boundary condition with appropriate rotational spring stiffnesses along their respective edges with the aid of finite element codes, accurate natural frequencies for the board against experimental natural frequencies are obtained. For a PCB supported by two opposite wedge retainers and a plug-in connector and with its remaining edge free of any restraint, it is found that these real supports behave somewhere between the simply supported and clamped boundary conditions and provide a percentage fixity of 39.5% more than the classical simply supported case. By using an eigensensitivity method, the rotational stiffnesses representing the boundary supports of the PCB can be updated effectively and is capable of representing the dynamics of the PCB accurately. The result shows that the percentage error in the fundamental frequency of the PCB finite element model is substantially reduced from 22.3% to 1.3%. The procedure demonstrated the effectiveness of using only the vibration test frequencies as reference data when the mode shapes of the original untuned model are almost identical to the referenced modes/experimental data. When using only modal frequencies in model improvement, the analysis is very much simplified. Furthermore, the time taken to obtain the experimental data will be substantially reduced as the experimental mode shapes are not required.In addition, this thesis advocates a relatively simple method in determining the support locations for maximising the fundamental frequency of vibrating structures. The technique is simple and does not require any optimisation or sequential search algorithm in the analysis. The key to the procedure is to position the necessary supports at positions so as to eliminate the lower modes from the original configuration. This is accomplished by introducing point supports along the nodal lines of the highest possible mode from the original configuration, so that all the other lower modes are eliminated by the introduction of the new or extra supports to the structure. It also proposes inspecting the average driving point residues along the nodal lines of vibrating plates to find the optimal locations of the supports. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate its validity. By applying to the PCB supported on its three sides by two wedge retainers and a connector, it is found that a single point constraint that would yield maximum fundamental frequency is located at the mid-point of the nodal line, namely, node 39. This point support has the effect of increasing the structure's fundamental frequency from 68.4 Hz to 146.9 Hz, or 115% higher.

Performance analysis of DSRC priority mechanism for road safety applications in vehicular networks

Dedicated short range communications (DSRC) has been regarded as one of the most promising technologies to provide robust communications for large scale vehicle networks. It is designed to support both road safety and commercial applications. Road safety applications will require reliable and timely wireless communications. However, as the medium access control (MAC) layer of DSRC is based on the IEEE 802.11 distributed coordination function (DCF), it is well known that the random channel access based MAC cannot provide guaranteed quality of services (QoS). It is very important to understand the quantitative performance of DSRC, in order to make better decisions on its adoption, control, adaptation, and improvement. In this paper, we propose an analytic model to evaluate the DSRC-based inter-vehicle communication. We investigate the impacts of the channel access parameters associated with the different services including arbitration inter-frame space (AIFS) and contention window (CW). Based on the proposed model, we analyze the successful message delivery ratio and channel service delay for broadcast messages. The proposed analytical model can provide a convenient tool to evaluate the inter-vehicle safety applications and analyze the suitability of DSRC for road safety applications.

Economic efficiency of smallholder maize producers in Western Kenya:a DEA meta-frontier analysis

Maize is the main staple food for most Kenyan households, and it predominates where smallholder, as well as large-scale, farming takes place. In the sugarcane growing areas of Western Kenya, there is pressure on farmers on whether to grow food crops, or grow sugarcane, which is the main cash crop. Further, with small and diminishing land sizes, the question of productivity and efficiency, both for cash and food crops is of great importance. This paper, therefore, uses a two-step estimation technique (DEA meta-frontier and Tobit Regression) to highlight the inefficiencies in maize cultivation, and their causes in Western Kenya.

Think small. The construction of imagined tradition in German "Land"-magazines

This article is the first linguistic analysis of a new category of lifestyle magazines in the German speaking countries, based on methods of corpus linguistics and multimodal discourse analysis. Since the launch of the magazine LandLust in Germany in 2005, more than twenty publications of so called "land magazines" have appeared on the market, attracting millions of readers. Our research analyses land magazines as discursive events. We examine the specific combination of discourses land magazines are serving or creating by looking at the semiotic practices – writing and images – they manifest themselves by. Our results show that the magazine under scrutiny does not simply provide new forms of escapism but also positions itself politically in subtle ways as part of the traditional-conservative spectrum by reacting to metalinguistic discourses such as purism and feminist criticism.