Data methods in optometry Part 9: experimental design and analysis of variance

The key to the correct application of ANOVA is careful experimental design and matching the correct analysis to that design. The following points should therefore, be considered before designing any experiment: 1. In a single factor design, ensure that the factor is identified as a 'fixed' or 'random effect' factor. 2. In more complex designs, with more than one factor, there may be a mixture of fixed and random effect factors present, so ensure that each factor is clearly identified. 3. Where replicates can be grouped or blocked, the advantages of a randomised blocks design should be considered. There should be evidence, however, that blocking can sufficiently reduce the error variation to counter the loss of DF compared with a randomised design. 4. Where different treatments are applied sequentially to a patient, the advantages of a three-way design in which the different orders of the treatments are included as an 'effect' should be considered. 5. Combining different factors to make a more efficient experiment and to measure possible factor interactions should always be considered. 6. The effect of 'internal replication' should be taken into account in a factorial design in deciding the number of replications to be used. Where possible, each error term of the ANOVA should have at least 15 DF. 7. Consider carefully whether a particular factorial design can be considered to be a split-plot or a repeated measures design. If such a design is appropriate, consider how to continue the analysis bearing in mind the problem of using post hoc tests in this situation.

The effects of negative affectivity on self-reported activity limitations in stroke patients:testing the symptom perception, disability and psychosomatic hypotheses

This study investigated whether Negative Affectivity (NA) causes bias in self-report measures of activity limitations or whether NA has a real, non-artifactual association with activity limitations. The Symptom Perception Hypothesis (NA negatively biases self-reporting), Disability Hypothesis (activity limitations cause NA) and Psychosomatic Hypothesis (NA causes activity limitations) were examined longitudinally using both self-report and objective activity limitations measures. Participants were 101 stroke patients and their caregivers interviewed within two weeks of discharge, six weeks later and six months post-discharge. NA and self-report, proxy-report and observed performance activity (walking) limitations were assessed at each interview. NA was associated with activity limitations across measures. Both the Disability and Psychosomatic Hypotheses were supported: initial NA predicted objective activity limitations at six weeks but, additionally, activity limitations at six weeks predicted NA at six months. These results suggest that NA both affects and is affected by activity limitations and does not simply influence reporting.

Modelling sustainability performance to achieve absolute reductions in socio-ecological systems

As the world’s natural resources dwindle and critical levels of environmental pollution are approached, sustainability becomes a key issue for governments, organisations and individuals. With the consequences of such an issue in mind, this paper introduces a unifying approach to measure the sustainability performance of socio-economic systems based on the interplay between two key variables: essentiality of consumption and environmental impact. This measure attributes to every system a ‘fitness’ value i.e. a quantity that reflects its ability to remain resilient/healthy by avoiding ecological, social and economic collapse as it consumes the available resources. This new measure is tested on a system where there is a limited supply of resources and four basic consumption types. The analysis has theoretical implications as well as practical importance as it can help countries, organisations or even individuals, in finding better ways to measure sustainability performance.

Strategic planning in a decentralised industrial group : a process-action study

The research was carried out within a major public company. It sought to implement an approach to strategic planning which accounted for organisational values as well as employing a holistic value-free analysis of the firm and its environment. To this end, an 'ecological' model of the firm was formulated. A series of value-free strategic policies for its development were generated. These policies were validated by the company's top-management.They compared favourably with their own planning outcomes. The approach appeared to be diagnostically strong but lacked sufficient depth in the context of finding realistic corrective measures. However, feedback from the company showed it to be a useful complementary process to conventional procedures, in providing an explicitly different perspective. The research empirically evaluated the company's value-systems and their influence on strategy. It introduced the idea of an organisational 'self-concept' pre-determining the acceptability of various strategies.The values and the "self-concept' of the company were identified and validated, They appeared to have considerable influence on strategy. In addition, tho company's planning process within the decentralised structure was shown to be sub-optimal. This resulted from the variety of value systems maintained by different parts of the organisation. Proposals attempting to redress this situation were ofJered and several accepted. The study was postured as process-action research and the chosen perspective could be succinctly described as a 'worm's-eye view', akin to that of many real planners operating at some distance from the decision-making body. In this way, the normal strategic functionings of the firm and any changes resulting from the researcher's intervention were observed and recorded. Recurrent difficulties of the planning process resulting from the decentralised structure were identified. The overall procedure suggested as a result of the research aimed to increase the viabiIity of planning and the efficiency of the process. It is considered to be flexible enough to be applicable in a broader context.

Novel, isoform-selective, cholecystokinin A receptor antagonist inhibits colon and pancreatic cancers in preclinical models through novel mechanism of action

Colon and pancreatic cancers contribute to 90,000 deaths each year in the USA. These cancers lack targeted therapeutics due to heterogeneity of the disease and multiple causative factors. One important factor that contributes to increased colon and pancreatic cancer risk is gastrin. Gastrin mediates its actions through two G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs): cholecystokinin receptor A (CCK-A) and CCK-B/gastrin receptor. Previous studies have indicated that colon cancer predominantly expresses CCK-A and responds to CCK-A isoform antagonists. However, many CCK-A antagonists have failed in the clinic due to poor pharmacokinetic properties or lack of efficacy. In the present study, we synthesized a library of CCK-A isoform-selective antagonists and tested them in various colon and pancreatic cancer preclinical models. The lead CCK-A isoform, selective antagonist PNB-028, bound to CCK-A at 12 nM with a 60-fold selectivity towards CCK-A over CCK-B. Furthermore, it inhibited the proliferation of CCK-A-expressing colon and pancreatic cancer cells without affecting the proliferation of non-cancerous cells. PNB-028 was also extremely effective in inhibiting the growth of MAC-16 and LoVo colon cancer and MIA PaCa pancreatic cancer xenografts in immune-compromised mice. Genomewide microarray and kinase-array studies indicate that PNB-028 inhibited oncogenic kinases and angiogenic factors to inhibit the growth of colon cancer xenografts. Safety pharmacology and toxicology studies have indicated that PNB-028 is extremely safe and has a wide safety margin. These studies suggest that targeting CCK-A selectively renders promise to treat colon and pancreatic cancers and that PNB-028 could become the next-generation treatment option.

Problem solving in architectural design

This thesis is presented in two parts. The first part is an attempt to set out a framework of factors influencing the problem solving stage of the architectural design process. The discussion covers the nature of architectural problems and some of the main ways in which they differ from other types of design problems. The structure of constraints that both the problem and the architect impose upon solutions are seen as of great importance in defining the type of design problem solving situation. The problem solver, or architect, is then studied. The literature of the psychology of thinking is surveyed for relevant work . All of the traditional schools of psychology are found wanting in terms of providing a comprehensive theory of thinking. Various types of thinking are examined, particularly structural and productive thought, for their relevance to design problem solving. Finally some reported common traits of architects are briefly reviewed. The second section is a report of u~o main experiments which model some aspects of architectural design problem solving. The first experiment examines the way in which architects come to understand the structure of their problems. The performances of first and final year architectural students are compared with those of postgraduate science students and sixth form pupils. On the whole these groups show significantly different results and also different cognitive strategies. The second experiment poses design problems which involve both subjective and objective criteria, and examines the way in which final year architectural students are able to relate the different types of constraint produced. In the final section the significance of all the results is suggested. Some educational and methodological implications are discussed and some further experiments and investigations are proposed.

Design verification and validation in product lifecycle

The verification and validation of engineering designs are of primary importance as they directly influence production performance and ultimately define product functionality and customer perception. Research in aspects of verification and validation is widely spread ranging from tools employed during the digital design phase, to methods deployed for prototype verification and validation. This paper reviews the standard definitions of verification and validation in the context of engineering design and progresses to provide a coherent analysis and classification of these activities from preliminary design, to design in the digital domain and the physical verification and validation of products and processes. The scope of the paper includes aspects of system design and demonstrates how complex products are validated in the context of their lifecycle. Industrial requirements are highlighted and research trends and priorities identified. © 2010 CIRP.

From apartheid to unity: white capital and black power in the racial integration of South African football, 1976-1992

This article analyses the complex process that deracialised and democratised South African football between the early 1970s and 1990s. Based mainly on archival documents, it argues that growing isolation from world sport, exemplified by South Africa's expulsion from the Olympic movement in 1970 and FIFA in 1976, and the reinvigoration of the liberation struggle with the Soweto youth uprising triggered a process of gradual desegregation in the South African professional game. While Pretoria viewed such changes as a potential bulwark against rising black militancy, white football and big business had their own reasons for eventually supporting racial integration, as seen in the founding of the National Soccer League. As negotiations for a new democratic South Africa began in earnest between the African National Congress (ANC) and the National Party (NP) in the latter half of the 1980s, transformations in football and politics paralleled and informed each other. Previously antagonistic football associations began a series of 'unity talks' between 1985 and 1986 that eventually culminated in the formation of a single, non-racial South African Football Association in December 1991, just a few days before the Convention for a Democratic South Africa (CODESA) opened the process of writing a new post-apartheid constitution. Finally, three decades of isolation came to an end as FIFA welcomed South Africa back into world football in 1992 - a powerful example of the seemingly boundless potential of a liberated and united South Africa ahead of the first democratic elections in 1994.

Strategies for performance improvement in the Chinese chemical industry:evidence from case study investigations

Purpose – This paper sets out to explore the proposition that building competences is more effective than privatisation and restructuring to improve performance in the Chinese chemical industry. Design/methodology/approach – Case study research has been undertaken in the Chinese chemical industry. The two case companies provide representative data on the factors under investigation. The case investigations that are described were complemented by a survey, the results of which have been reported elsewhere. Findings – Results obtained from the research show that privatisation of Chinese state-owned enterprises is not always an effective strategy to improve performance. In the case study companies, the development of core competences was more effective in enhancing performance. Research limitations/implications – The research results are limited by the scope of the study, which was carried out in the Chinese chemical industry. They are also based on in-depth case investigations in only two companies, but are supported by a large-scale survey reported elsewhere. The results have implications for academic researchers interested in China's privatisation programme. Practical implications – The research has practical implications for companies outside China that are considering collaborative operations with Chinese companies or investing in joint ventures. It also has implications for suppliers or customers of Chinese companies. Originality/value – The paper is based on original case study investigations carried out in Chinese enterprises and is supported by a survey of representative companies in China's chemical sector. Value is derived from understanding the basis of improved performance in the companies studied.

Human sensitivity to phase perturbations in natural images:A statistical framework

Fourier-phase information is important in determining the appearance of natural scenes, but the structure of natural-image phase spectra is highly complex and difficult to relate directly to human perceptual processes. This problem is addressed by extending previous investigations of human visual sensitivity to the randomisation and quantisation of Fourier phase in natural images. The salience of the image changes induced by these physical processes is shown to depend critically on the nature of the original phase spectrum of each image, and the processes of randomisation and quantisation are shown to be perceptually equivalent provided that they shift image phase components by the same average amount. These results are explained by assuming that the visual system is sensitive to those phase-domain image changes which also alter certain global higher-order image statistics. This assumption may be used to place constraints on the likely nature of cortical processing: mechanisms which correlate the outputs of a bank of relative-phase-sensitive units are found to be consistent with the patterns of sensitivity reported here.

Modelling of transient heat transfer in annealing furnaces

This is a study of heat transfer in a lift-off furnace which is employed in the batch annealing of a stack of coils of steel strip. The objective of the project is to investigate the various factors which govern the furnace design and the heat transfer resistances, so as to reduce the time of the annealing cycle, and hence minimize the operating costs. The work involved mathematical modelling of patterns of gas flow and modes of heat transfer. These models are: Heat conduction and its conjectures in the steel coils;Convective heat transfer in the plates separating the coils in the stack and in other parts of the furnace; and Radiative and convective heat transfer in the furnace by using the long furnace model. An important part of the project is the development of numerical methods and computations to solve the transient models. A limited number of temperature measurements was available from experiments on a test coil in an industrial furnace. The mathematical model agreed well with these data. The model has been used to show the following characteristics of annealing furnaces, and to suggest further developments which would lead to significant savings: - The location of the limiting temperature in a coil is nearer to the hollow core than to the outer periphery. - Thermal expansion of the steel tends to open the coils, reduces their thermal conductivity in the radial direction, and hence prolongs the annealing cycle. Increasing the tension in the coils and/or heating from the core would overcome this heat transfer resistance. - The shape and dimensions of the convective channels in the plates have significant effect on heat convection in the stack. An optimal design of a channel is shown to be of a width-to-height ratio equal to 9. - Increasing the cooling rate, by using a fluidized bed instead of the normal shell and tube exchanger, would shorten the cooling time by about 15%, but increase the temperature differential in the stack. - For a specific charge weight, a stack of different-sized coils will have a shorter annealing cycle than one of equally-sized coils, provided that production constraints allow the stacking order to be optimal. - Recycle of hot flue gases to the firing zone of the furnace would produce a. decrease in the thermal efficiency up to 30% but decreases the heating time by about 26%.

Information systems design for the community health services

This system is concerned with the design and implementation of a community health information system which fulfils some of the local needs of fourteen nursing and para-medical professions in a district health authority, whilst satisfying the statutory requirements of the NHS Korner steering group for those professions. A national survey of community health computer applications, documented in the form of an applications register, shows the need for such a system. A series of general requirements for an informations systems design methodology are identified, together with specific requirements for this problem situation. A number of existing methodologies are reviewed, but none of these were appropriate for this application. Some existing approaches, tools and techniques are used to define a more suitable methodology. It is unreasonable to rely on one single general methodology for all types of application development. There is a need for pragmatism, adaptation and flexibility. In this research, participation in the development stages by those who will eventually use the system was thought desirable. This was achieved by forming a representative design group. Results would seem to show a highly favourable response from users to this participation which contributed to the overall success of the system implemented. A prototype was developed for the chiropody and school nursing staff groups of Darlington health authority, and evaluations show that a significant number of the problems and objectives of those groups have been successfully addressed; the value of community health information has been increased; and information has been successfully fed back to staff and better utilised.

The design of environmental test rigs

Product reliability and its environmental performance have become critical elements within a product's specification and design. To obtain a high level of confidence in the reliability of the design it is customary to test the design under realistic conditions in a laboratory. The objective of the work is to examine the feasibility of designing mechanical test rigs which exhibit prescribed dynamical characteristics. The design is then attached to the rig and excitation is applied to the rig, which then transmits representative vibration levels into the product. The philosophical considerations made at the outset of the project are discussed as they form the basis for the resulting design methodologies. It is attempted to directly identify the parameters of a test rig from the spatial model derived during the system identification process. It is shown to be impossible to identify a feasible test rig design using this technique. A finite dimensional optimal design methodology is developed which identifies the parameters of a discrete spring/mass system which is dynamically similar to a point coordinate on a continuous structure. This design methodology is incorporated within another procedure which derives a structure comprising a continuous element and a discrete system. This methodology is used to obtain point coordinate similarity for two planes of motion, which is validated by experimental tests. A limitation of this approach is that it is impossible to achieve multi-coordinate similarity due to an interaction of the discrete system and the continuous element at points away from the coordinate of interest. During the work the importance of the continuous element is highlighted and a design methodology is developed for continuous structures. The design methodology is based upon distributed parameter optimal design techniques and allows an initial poor design estimate to be moved in a feasible direction towards an acceptable design solution. Cumulative damage theory is used to provide a quantitative method of assessing the quality of dynamic similarity. It is shown that the combination of modal analysis techniques and cumulative damage theory provides a feasible design synthesis methodology for representative test rigs.

The application of expert systems techniques in the design of durable concrete

This thesis describes work done exploring the application of expert system techniques to the domain of designing durable concrete. The nature of concrete durability design is described and some problems from the domain are discussed. Some related work on expert systems in concrete durability are described. Various implementation languages are considered - PROLOG and OPS5, and rejected in favour of a shell - CRYSTAL3 (later CRYSTAL4). Criteria for useful expert system shells in the domain are discussed. CRYSTAL4 is evaluated in the light of these criteria. Modules in various sub-domains (mix-design, sulphate attack, steel-corrosion and alkali aggregate reaction) are developed and organised under a BLACKBOARD system (called DEX). Extensions to the CRYSTAL4 modules are considered for different knowledge representations. These include LOTUS123 spreadsheets implementing models incorporating some of the mathematical knowledge in the domain. Design databases are used to represent tabular design knowledge. Hypertext representations of the original building standards texts are proposed as a tool for providing a well structured and extensive justification/help facility. A standardised approach to module development is proposed using hypertext development as a structured basis for expert systems development. Some areas of deficient domain knowledge are highlighted particularly in the use of data from mathematical models and in gaps and inconsistencies in the original knowledge source Digests.

Design of sway frames

The aim of the work presented in this thesis is to produce a direct method to design structures subject to deflection constraints at the working loads. The work carried out can be divided into four main parts. In the first part, a direct design procedure for plane steel frames subjected to sway limitations is proposed. The stiffness equations are modified so that the sway in each storey is equal to some specified values. The modified equations are then solved by iteration to calculate the cross-sectional properties of the columns as well as the other joint displacements. The beam sections are selected initially and then altered in an effort to reduce the total material cost of the frame. A linear extrapolation technique is used to reduce this cost. In this design, stability functions are used so that the effect of axial loads in the members are taken into consideration. The final reduced cost design is checked for strength requirements and the members are altered accordingly. In the second part, the design method is applied to the design of reinforced concrete frames in which the sway in the columns play an active part in the design criteria. The second moment of area of each column is obtained by solving the modified stiffness equations and then used to calculate the mlnlmum column depth required. Again the frame has to be checked for all the ultimate limit state load cases. In the third part, the method is generalised to design pin-jointed space frames for deflection limitatlions. In these the member areas are calculated so that the deflection at a specified joint is equal to its specified value. In the final part, the Lagrange multiplier technique is employed to obtain an optimum design for plane rigidly jointed steel frames. The iteration technique is used here to solve the modified stiffness equations as well as derivative equations obtained in accordance to the requirements of the optimisation method.