Inverse forecasting:a new approach for predictive modelling

In the last two decades there have been substantial developments in the mathematical theory of inverse optimization problems, and their applications have expanded greatly. In parallel, time series analysis and forecasting have become increasingly important in various fields of research such as data mining, economics, business, engineering, medicine, politics, and many others. Despite the large uses of linear programming in forecasting models there is no a single application of inverse optimization reported in the forecasting literature when the time series data is available. Thus the goal of this paper is to introduce inverse optimization into forecasting field, and to provide a streamlined approach to time series analysis and forecasting using inverse linear programming. An application has been used to demonstrate the use of inverse forecasting developed in this study. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tissue engineering of co-cultured skin substitutes using biocomposite membranes based on collagen and polycaprolactone

The preparation and characterisation of collagen: PCL, gelatin: PCL and gelatin/collagen:PCL biocomposites for manufacture of tissue engineered skin substitutes are reported. Films of collagen: PLC, gelatin: PCL (1:4, 1:8 and 1:20 w/w) and gelatin/collagen:PCL (1:8 and 1:20 w/w) biocomposites were prepared by impregnation of lyophilised collagen and/or gelatin mats by PCL solutions followed by solvent evaporation. In vitro assays of total protein release of collagen:PCL and gelatin: PCL biocomposite films revealed an expected inverse relationship between the collagen release rate and the content of synthetic polymer in the biocomposite samples that may be exploited for controlled presentation and release of biopharmaceuticals such as growth factors. Good compatibility of all biocomposite groups was proven by interaction with 3T3 fibroblasts, normal human epidermal keratinocytes (NHEK), and primary human epidermal keratinocytes (PHEK) and dermal fibroblasts (PHDF) in vitro respectively. The 1:20 collagen: PCL materials exhibiting good cell growth curves and mechanical characteristics were selected for engineering of skin substitutes in this work. The tissue-engineered skin model based on single-donor PHEK and PHDF with differentiated confluent epidermal layer and fibrous porous dermal layer was then developed successfully in vitro proven by SEM and immunohistochemistry assay. The following in vivo animal study on athymic mice revealed early complete wound healing in 10 days and good integration of co-cultured skin substitutes with adjacent mice skin structures. Thus the co-cultured skin substitutes based on 1:20 collagen: PCL biocomposite membranes was proven in principle. The approach to skin modelling reported here may find application in wound treatment, gene therapy and screening of new pharmaceuticals.

Numerical approximation of the one-dimensional inverse Cauchy–Stefan problem using a method of fundamental solutions

We investigate an application of the method of fundamental solutions (MFS) to the one-dimensional parabolic inverse Cauchy–Stefan problem, where boundary data and the initial condition are to be determined from the Cauchy data prescribed on a given moving interface. In [B.T. Johansson, D. Lesnic, and T. Reeve, A method of fundamental solutions for the one-dimensional inverse Stefan Problem, Appl. Math Model. 35 (2011), pp. 4367–4378], the inverse Stefan problem was considered, where only the boundary data is to be reconstructed on the fixed boundary. We extend the MFS proposed in Johansson et al. (2011) and show that the initial condition can also be simultaneously recovered, i.e. the MFS is appropriate for the inverse Cauchy-Stefan problem. Theoretical properties of the method, as well as numerical investigations, are included, showing that accurate results can be efficiently obtained with small computational cost.

Composite cell support membranes based on collagen and polycaprolactone for tissue engineering of skin

The preparation and characterisation of collagen:PCL composites for manufacture of tissue engineered skin substitutes and models are reported. Films having collagen:PCL (w/w) ratios of 1:4, 1:8 and 1:20 were prepared by impregnation of lyophilised collagen mats by PCL solutions followed by solvent evaporation. In vitro assays of collagen release and residual collagen content revealed an expected inverse relationship between the collagen release rate and the content of synthetic polymer in the composite that may be exploited for controlled presentation and release of biopharmaceuticals such as growth factors. DSC analysis revealed the characteristic melting point of PCL at around 60°C and a tendency for the collagen component, at high loading, to impede crystallinity development within the PCL phase. The preparation of fibroblast/composite constructs was investigated using cell culture as a first stage in mimicking the dermal/epidermal structure of skin. Fibroblasts were found to attach and proliferate on all the composites investigated reaching a maximum of 2×105/cm2 on 1:20 collagen:PCL materials at day 8 with cell numbers declining thereafter. Keratinocyte growth rates were similar on all types of collagen:PCL materials investigated reaching a maximum of 6.6×104/cm2 at day 6. The results revealed that composite films of collagen and PCL are favourable substrates for growth of fibroblasts and keratinocytes and may find utility for skin repair. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Minor and major consolidations in inverse DEA:definition and determination

Many production systems have acquisition and merge operations to increase productivity. This paper proposes a novel method to anticipate whether a merger in a market is generating a major or a minor consolidation, using InvDEA model. A merger between two or more decision making units (DMUs) producing a single merged DMU that affects the efficiency frontier, defined by the pre-consolidation market conditions, is called a major consolidation. The corresponding alternative case is called a minor consolidation. A necessary and sufficient condition to distinguish the two types of consolidations is proven and two numerical illustrations in banking and supply chain management are discussed. The crucial importance of anticipating the magnitude of a consolidation in a market is outlined.