Using non-parametric search algorithms to forecast daily excess stock returns

Are the learning procedures of genetic algorithms (GAs) able to generate optimal architectures for artificial neural networks (ANNs) in high frequency data? In this experimental study,GAs are used to identify the best architecture for ANNs. Additional learning is undertaken by the ANNs to forecast daily excess stock returns. No ANN architectures were able to outperform a random walk,despite the finding of non-linearity in the excess returns. This failure is attributed to the absence of suitable ANN structures and further implies that researchers need to be cautious when making inferences from ANN results that use high frequency data.

Neural network control of a gas turbine

In this paper we explore the practical use of neural networks for controlling complex non-linear systems. The system used to demonstrate this approach is a simulation of a gas turbine engine typical of those used to power commercial aircraft. The novelty of the work lies in the requirement for multiple controllers which are used to maintain system variables in safe operating regions as well as governing the engine thrust.

Non-metallic cold-cathode electron emission from composite metal-insulator microstructures

A detailed investigation has been undertaken into a field-induced electron emission (FIEE) mechanism that occurs at microscopically localised `sites' on uncoated, dielectric-coated and composite-coated metallic cathodes. An optical imaging technique has been used to observe and characterize the spatial and temporal behaviour of the populations of emission sites on these cathodes under various experimental conditions, e.g. pulsed-fields, gas environment etc. This study has shown that, for applied fields of 20MVm^-1, thin dielectric (750AA) and composite metal-insulator (MI) overlayers result in a dramatic increase in the total number of emission sites (typically 30cm^-2), and hence emission current. The emission process has been further investigated by a complementary electron spectroscopy technique which has revealed that the localised emission sites on these cathodes display field-dependent spectral shifts and half-widths, i.e. indicative of a `non-metallic' emission mechanism. Details are also given of a comprehensive investigation into the effects of the residual gas environment on the FIEE process from uncoated Cu-cathodes. This latter study has revealed that the well-known Gas Conditioning process can be performed with a wide range of gas species (e.g. O_2, N_2 etc), and furthermore, the degree of conditioning is influenced by both a `Voltage' and `Temperature' effect. These experimental findings have been shown to be particularly important to the technology of high-voltage vacuum-insulation and cold-cathode electron sources. The FIEE mechanism has been interpreted in terms of a hot-electron process that is associated with `electroformed' conducting channels in MI, MIM and MIMI surface microstructures.

Multiphase modelling of the characteristics of close coupled gas atomization

Not withstanding the high demand of metal powder for automotive and High Tech applications, there are still many unclear aspects of the production process. Only recentlyhas supercomputer performance made possible numerical investigation of such phenomena. This thesis focuses on the modelling aspects of primary and secondary atomization. Initially two-dimensional analysis is carried out to investigate the influence of flow parameters (reservoir pressure and gas temperature principally) and nozzle geometry on final powder yielding. Among the different types, close coupled atomizers have the best performance in terms of cost and narrow size distribution. An isentropic contoured nozzle is introduced to minimize the gas flow losses through shock cells: the results demonstrate that it outperformed the standard converging-diverging slit nozzle. Furthermore the utilization of hot gas gave a promising outcome: the powder size distribution is narrowed and the gas consumption reduced. In the second part of the thesis, the interaction of liquid metal and high speed gas near the feeding tube exit was studied. Both axisymmetric andnon-axisymmetric geometries were simulated using a 3D approach. The filming mechanism was detected only for very small metal flow rates (typically obtained in laboratory scale atomizers). When the melt flow increased, the liquid core overtook the adverse gas flow and entered in the high speed wake directly: in this case the disruption isdriven by sinusoidal surface waves. The process is characterized by fluctuating values of liquid volumes entering the domain that are monitored only as a time average rate: it is far from industrial robustness and capability concept. The non-axisymmetric geometry promoted the splitting of the initial stream into four cores, smaller in diameter and easier to atomize. Finally a new atomization design based on the lesson learned from previous cases simulation is presented.

Models of gas-liquid solubilities

A recent method for phase equilibria, the AGAPE method, has been used to predict activity coefficients and excess Gibbs energy for binary mixtures with good accuracy. The theory, based on a generalised London potential (GLP), accounts for intermolecular attractive forces. Unlike existing prediction methods, for example UNIFAC, the AGAPE method uses only information derived from accessible experimental data and molecular information for pure components. Presently, the AGAPE method has some limitations, namely that the mixtures must consist of small, non-polar compounds with no hydrogen bonding, at low moderate pressures and at conditions below the critical conditions of the components. Distinction between vapour-liquid equilibria and gas-liquid solubility is rather arbitrary and it seems reasonable to extend these ideas to solubility. The AGAPE model uses a molecular lattice-based mixing rule. By judicious use of computer programs a methodology was created to examine a body of experimental gas-liquid solubility data for gases such as carbon dioxide, propane, n-butane or sulphur hexafluoride which all have critical temperatures a little above 298 K dissolved in benzene, cyclo-hexane and methanol. Within this methodology the value of the GLP as an ab initio combining rule for such solutes in very dilute solutions in a variety of liquids has been tested. Using the GLP as a mixing rule involves the computation of rotationally averaged interactions between the constituent atoms, and new calculations have had to be made to discover the magnitude of the unlike pair interactions. These numbers have been seen as significant in their own right in the context of the behaviour of infinitely-dilute solutions. A method for extending this treatment to "permanent" gases has also been developed. The findings from the GLP method and from the more general AGAPE approach have been examined in the context of other models for gas-liquid solubility, both "classical" and contemporary, in particular those derived from equations-of-state methods and from reference solvent methods.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Development of a small-scale trigeneration plant based on a CI engine fuelled by neat non-edible plant oil

This study presents design and construction of a tri-generation system (thermal efficiency, 63%), powered by neat nonedible plant oils (jatropha, pongamia and jojoba oil or standard diesel fuel), besides studies on plant performance and economics. Proposed plant consumes fuel (3 l/h) and produce ice (40 kg/h) by means of an adsorption refrigerator powered from the engine waste jacket water heat. Potential savings in green house gas (GHG) emissions of trigeneration system in comparison to cogeneration (or single generation) has also been discussed.

Pryolytic and kinetic study of Chlorella Vulgaris under isothermal and non-isothermal conditions

Algae are a new potential biomass for energy production but there is limited information on their pyrolysis and kinetics. The main aim of this thesis is to investigate the pyrolytic behaviour and kinetics of Chlorella vulgaris, a green microalga. Under pyrolysis conditions, these microalgae show their comparable capabilities to terrestrial biomass for energy and chemicals production. Also, the evidence from a preliminary pyrolysis by the intermediate pilot-scale reactor supports the applicability of these microalgae in the existing pyrolysis reactor. Thermal decomposition of Chlorella vulgaris occurs in a wide range of temperature (200-550°C) with multi-step reactions. To evaluate the kinetic parameters of their pyrolysis process, two approaches which are isothermal and non-isothermal experiments are applied in this work. New developed Pyrolysis-Mass Spectrometry (Py-MS) technique has the potential for isothermal measurements with a short run time and small sample size requirement. The equipment and procedure are assessed by the kinetic evaluation of thermal decomposition of polyethylene and lignocellulosic derived materials (cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin). In the case of non-isothermal experiment, Thermogravimetry- Mass Spectrometry (TG-MS) technique is used in this work. Evolved gas analysis provides the information on the evolution of volatiles and these data lead to a multi-component model. Triplet kinetic values (apparent activation energy, pre-exponential factor, and apparent reaction order) from isothermal experiment are 57 (kJ/mol), 5.32 (logA, min-1), 1.21-1.45; 9 (kJ/mol), 1.75 (logA, min-1), 1.45 and 40 (kJ/mol), 3.88 (logA, min-1), 1.45- 1.15 for low, middle and high temperature region, respectively. The kinetic parameters from non-isothermal experiment are varied depending on the different fractions in algal biomass when the range of apparent activation energies are 73-207 (kJ/mol); pre-exponential factor are 5-16 (logA, min-1); and apparent reaction orders are 1.32–2.00. The kinetic procedures reported in this thesis are able to be applied to other kinds of biomass and algae for future works.

A CFD study of biomass pyrolysis in a downer reactor equipped with a novel gas-solid separator-II thermochemical performance and products

A Eulerian-Eulerian CFD model was used to investigate the fast pyrolysis of biomass in a downer reactor equipped with a novel gas-solid separation mechanism. The highly endothermic pyrolysis reaction was assumed to be entirely driven by an inert solid heat carrier (sand). A one-step global pyrolysis reaction, along with the equations describing the biomass drying and heat transfer, was implemented in the hydrodynamic model presented in part I of this study (Fuel Processing Technology, V126, 366-382). The predictions of the gas-solid separation efficiency, temperature distribution, residence time and the pyrolysis product yield are presented and discussed. For the operating conditions considered, the devolatilisation efficiency was found to be above 60% and the yield composition in mass fraction was 56.85% bio-oil, 37.87% bio-char and 5.28% non-condensable gas (NCG). This has been found to agree reasonably well with recent relevant published experimental data. The novel gas-solid separation mechanism allowed achieving greater than 99.9% separation efficiency and < 2 s pyrolysis gas residence time. The model has been found to be robust and fast in terms of computational time, thus has the great potential to aid in future design and optimisation of the biomass fast pyrolysis process.