Metrics and models to support the development of hybrid information systems

The research described here concerns the development of metrics and models to support the development of hybrid (conventional/knowledge based) integrated systems. The thesis argues from the point that, although it is well known that estimating the cost, duration and quality of information systems is a difficult task, it is far from clear what sorts of tools and techniques would adequately support a project manager in the estimation of these properties. A literature review shows that metrics (measurements) and estimating tools have been developed for conventional systems since the 1960s while there has been very little research on metrics for knowledge based systems (KBSs). Furthermore, although there are a number of theoretical problems with many of the `classic' metrics developed for conventional systems, it also appears that the tools which such metrics can be used to develop are not widely used by project managers. A survey was carried out of large UK companies which confirmed this continuing state of affairs. Before any useful tools could be developed, therefore, it was important to find out why project managers were not using these tools already. By characterising those companies that use software cost estimating (SCE) tools against those which could but do not, it was possible to recognise the involvement of the client/customer in the process of estimation. Pursuing this point, a model of the early estimating and planning stages (the EEPS model) was developed to test exactly where estimating takes place. The EEPS model suggests that estimating could take place either before a fully-developed plan has been produced, or while this plan is being produced. If it were the former, then SCE tools would be particularly useful since there is very little other data available from which to produce an estimate. A second survey, however, indicated that project managers see estimating as being essentially the latter at which point project management tools are available to support the process. It would seem, therefore, that SCE tools are not being used because project management tools are being used instead. The issue here is not with the method of developing an estimating model or tool, but; in the way in which "an estimate" is intimately tied to an understanding of what tasks are being planned. Current SCE tools are perceived by project managers as targetting the wrong point of estimation, A model (called TABATHA) is then presented which describes how an estimating tool based on an analysis of tasks would thus fit into the planning stage. The issue of whether metrics can be usefully developed for hybrid systems (which also contain KBS components) is tested by extending a number of "classic" program size and structure metrics to a KBS language, Prolog. Measurements of lines of code, Halstead's operators/operands, McCabe's cyclomatic complexity, Henry & Kafura's data flow fan-in/out and post-release reported errors were taken for a set of 80 commercially-developed LPA Prolog programs: By re~defining the metric counts for Prolog it was found that estimates of program size and error-proneness comparable to the best conventional studies are possible. This suggests that metrics can be usefully applied to KBS languages, such as Prolog and thus, the development of metncs and models to support the development of hybrid information systems is both feasible and useful.

Practical design considerations of cascaded hybrid battery storage systems

The high cost of batteries has led to investigations in using second-life ex-transportation batteries for grid support applications. Vehicle manufacturers currently all have different specifications for battery chemistry, arrangement of cells, capacity and voltage. With anticipated new developments in battery chemistry which could also affect these parameters, there are, as yet, no standards defining parameters in second life applications. To overcome issues relating to sizing and to prevent future obsolescence for the rest of the energy storage system, a cascaded topology with an operating envelope design approach has been used to connect together modules. This topology offers advantages in terms of system reliability. The design methodology is validated through a set of experimental results resulting in the creation of surface maps looking at the operation of the converter (efficiency and inductor ripple current). The use of a pre-defined module operating envelope also offers advantages for developing new operational strategies for systems with both hybrid battery energy systems and also hybrid systems including other energy sources such as solar power.

Modelling manufacturing planning and control systems:the application of object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation

Manufacturing planning and control systems are fundamental to the successful operations of a manufacturing organisation. 10 order to improve their business performance, significant investment is made by companies into planning and control systems; however, not all companies realise the benefits sought Many companies continue to suffer from high levels of inventory, shortages, obsolete parts, poor resource utilisation and poor delivery performance. This thesis argues that the fit between the planning and control system and the manufacturing organisation is a crucial element of success. The design of appropriate control systems is, therefore, important. The different approaches to the design of manufacturing planning and control systems are investigated. It is concluded that there is no provision within these design methodologies to properly assess the impact of a proposed design on the manufacturing facility. Consequently, an understanding of how a new (or modified) planning and control system will perform in the context of the complete manufacturing system is unlikely to be gained until after the system has been implemented and is running. There are many modelling techniques available, however discrete-event simulation is unique in its ability to model the complex dynamics inherent in manufacturing systems, of which the planning and control system is an integral component. The existing application of simulation to manufacturing control system issues is limited: although operational issues are addressed, application to the more fundamental design of control systems is rarely, if at all, considered. The lack of a suitable simulation-based modelling tool does not help matters. The requirements of a simulation tool capable of modelling a host of different planning and control systems is presented. It is argued that only through the application of object-oriented principles can these extensive requirements be achieved. This thesis reports on the development of an extensible class library called WBS/Control, which is based on object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation. The functionality, both current and future, offered by WBS/Control means that different planning and control systems can be modelled: not only the more standard implementations but also hybrid systems and new designs. The flexibility implicit in the development of WBS/Control supports its application to design and operational issues. WBS/Control wholly integrates with an existing manufacturing simulator to provide a more complete modelling environment.

The feasibility of hybrid solar-biomass power plants in India

We assess the feasibility of hybrid solar-biomass power plants for use in India in various applications including tri-generation, electricity generation and process heat. To cover this breadth of scenarios we analyse, with the help of simulation models, case studies with peak thermal capacities ranging from 2 to 10 MW. Evaluations are made against technical, financial and environmental criteria. Suitable solar multiples, based on the trade-offs among the various criteria, range from 1 to 2.5. Compared to conventional energy sources, levelised energy costs are high - but competitive in comparison to other renewables such as photovoltaic and wind. Long payback periods for hybrid plants mean that they cannot compete directly with biomass-only systems. However, a 1.2-3.2 times increase in feedstock price will result in hybrid systems becoming cost competitive. Furthermore, in comparison to biomass-only, hybrid operation saves up to 29% biomass and land with an 8.3-24.8 $/GJ/a and 1.8-5.2 ¢/kWh increase in cost per exergy loss and levelised energy cost. Hybrid plants will become an increasingly attractive option as the cost of solar thermal falls and feedstock, fossil fuel and land prices continue to rise. In the foreseeable future, solar will continue to rely on subsidies and it is recommended to subsidise preferentially tri-generation plants. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Solar thermal collectors for use in hybrid solar-biomass power plants in India

This thesis examined solar thermal collectors for use in alternative hybrid solar-biomass power plant applications in Gujarat, India. Following a preliminary review, the cost-effective selection and design of the solar thermal field were identified as critical factors underlying the success of hybrid plants. Consequently, the existing solar thermal technologies were reviewed and ranked for use in India by means of a multi-criteria decision-making method, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Informed by the outcome of the AHP, the thesis went on to pursue the Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR), the design of which was optimised with the help of ray-tracing. To further enhance collector performance, LFR concepts incorporating novel mirror spacing and drive mechanisms were evaluated. Subsequently, a new variant, termed the Elevation Linear Fresnel Reflector (ELFR) was designed, constructed and tested at Aston University, UK, therefore allowing theoretical models for the performance of a solar thermal field to be verified. Based on the resulting characteristics of the LFR, and data gathered for the other hybrid system components, models of hybrid LFR- and ELFR-biomass power plants were developed and analysed in TRNSYS®. The techno-economic and environmental consequences of varying the size of the solar field in relation to the total plant capacity were modelled for a series of case studies to evaluate different applications: tri-generation (electricity, ice and heat), electricity-only generation, and process heat. The case studies also encompassed varying site locations, capacities, operational conditions and financial situations. In the case of a hybrid tri-generation plant in Gujarat, it was recommended to use an LFR solar thermal field of 14,000 m2 aperture with a 3 tonne biomass boiler, generating 815 MWh per annum of electricity for nearby villages and 12,450 tonnes of ice per annum for local fisheries and food industries. However, at the expense of a 0.3 ¢/kWh increase in levelised energy costs, the ELFR increased saving of biomass (100 t/a) and land (9 ha/a). For solar thermal applications in areas with high land cost, the ELFR reduced levelised energy costs. It was determined that off-grid hybrid plants for tri-generation were the most feasible application in India. Whereas biomass-only plants were found to be more economically viable, it was concluded that hybrid systems will soon become cost competitive and can considerably improve current energy security and biomass supply chain issues in India.

Enclosing the behavior of a hybrid system up to and beyond a Zeno point

Even simple hybrid systems like the classic bouncing ball can exhibit Zeno behaviors. The existence of this type of behavior has so far forced simulators to either ignore some events or risk looping indefinitely. This in turn forces modelers to either insert ad hoc restrictions to circumvent Zeno behavior or to abandon hybrid modeling. To address this problem, we take a fresh look at event detection and localization. A key insight that emerges from this investigation is that an enclosure for a given time interval can be valid independently of the occurrence of a given event. Such an event can then even occur an unbounded number of times, thus making it possible to handle certain types of Zeno behavior.

Enclosing the behavior of a hybrid automaton up to and beyond a Zeno point

Even simple hybrid automata like the classic bouncing ball can exhibit Zeno behavior. The existence of this type of behavior has so far forced a large class of simulators to either ignore some events or risk looping indefinitely. This in turn forces modelers to either insert ad-hoc restrictions to circumvent Zeno behavior or to abandon hybrid automata. To address this problem, we take a fresh look at event detection and localization. A key insight that emerges from this investigation is that an enclosure for a given time interval can be valid independent of the occurrence of a given event. Such an event can then even occur an unbounded number of times. This insight makes it possible to handle some types of Zeno behavior. If the post-Zeno state is defined explicitly in the given model of the hybrid automaton, the computed enclosure covers the corresponding trajectory that starts from the Zeno point through a restarted evolution.

Application of genomics, proteomics and metabolomics in drug discovery, development and clinic

Genomics, proteomics and metabolomics are three areas that are routinely applied throughout the drug-development process as well as after a product enters the market. This review discusses all three 'omics, reporting on the key applications, techniques, recent advances and expectations of each. Genomics, mainly through the use of novel and next-generation sequencing techniques, has advanced areas of drug discovery and development through the comparative assessment of normal and diseased-state tissues, transcription and/or expression profiling, side-effect profiling, pharmacogenomics and the identification of biomarkers. Proteomics, through techniques including isotope coded affinity tags, stable isotopic labeling by amino acids in cell culture, isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification, multidirectional protein identification technology, activity-based probes, protein/peptide arrays, phage displays and two-hybrid systems is utilized in multiple areas through the drug development pipeline including target and lead identification, compound optimization, throughout the clinical trials process and after market analysis. Metabolomics, although the most recent and least developed of the three 'omics considered in this review, provides a significant contribution to drug development through systems biology approaches. Already implemented to some degree in the drug-discovery industry and used in applications spanning target identification through to toxicological analysis, metabolic network understanding is essential in generating future discoveries.

Application of genomics, proteomics and metabolomics in drug discovery, development and clinic

Genomics, proteomics and metabolomics are three areas that are routinely applied throughout the drug-development process as well as after a product enters the market. This review discusses all three 'omics, reporting on the key applications, techniques, recent advances and expectations of each. Genomics, mainly through the use of novel and next-generation sequencing techniques, has advanced areas of drug discovery and development through the comparative assessment of normal and diseased-state tissues, transcription and/or expression profiling, side-effect profiling, pharmacogenomics and the identification of biomarkers. Proteomics, through techniques including isotope coded affinity tags, stable isotopic labeling by amino acids in cell culture, isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification, multidirectional protein identification technology, activity-based probes, protein/peptide arrays, phage displays and two-hybrid systems is utilized in multiple areas through the drug development pipeline including target and lead identification, compound optimization, throughout the clinical trials process and after market analysis. Metabolomics, although the most recent and least developed of the three 'omics considered in this review, provides a significant contribution to drug development through systems biology approaches. Already implemented to some degree in the drug-discovery industry and used in applications spanning target identification through to toxicological analysis, metabolic network understanding is essential in generating future discoveries.

Optimal span length in high-speed transmission systems with hybrid Raman-erbium-doped fiber amplification

We show, using nonlinearity management, that the optimal performance in high-bit-rate dispersion-managed fiber systems with hybrid amplification is achieved for a specific amplifier spacing that is different from the asymptotically vanishing length corresponding to ideally distributed amplification [Opt. Lett. 15, 1064 (1990)]. In particular, we prove the existence of a nontrivial optimal span length for 40-Gbit/s wavelength-division transmission systems with Raman-erbium-doped fiber amplification. Optimal amplifier lengths are obtained for several dispersion maps based on commonly used transmission fibers. © 2005 Optical Society of America.

Nonlinearity management in fiber transmission systems with hybrid amplification

Nonlinearity management in transmission lines with periodic dispersion compensation and hybrid Raman-Erbium doped fiber amplification is studied both analytically and numerically. Different transmission/compensating fiber pairs are considered, with particular focus on the SMF/DCF case. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonlinearity management in hybrid amplification systems

A theory of nonlinearity management in transmission lines with periodic dispersion compensation and hybrid Raman-EDFA amplification is developed. Different transmission/compensating fiber pairs performances are compared and the optimal amplification scheme determined for each case.

Optimal span length in high-speed transmission systems with hybrid Raman/EDFA amplification

The existence of an optimal span length for 40 Gbit/s WDM transmission systems with hybrid Raman/EDFA amplification is demonstrated. Optimal lengths are obtained for specific amplifier configurations and different fibre arrangements based on SSMF/DCF and SLA/IDF implementation, using a simple nonlinearity management theory.

Adaptive control of hybrid battery energy storage systems under capacity fade

There is an increasing call for applications which use a mixture of batteries. These hybrid battery solutions may contain different battery types for example; using second life ex-transportation batteries in grid support applications or a combination of high power, low energy and low power, high energy batteries to meet multiple energy requirements or even the same battery types but under different states of health for example, being able to hot swap out a battery when it has failed in an application without changing all the batteries and ending up with batteries with different performances, capacities and impedances. These types of applications typically use multi-modular converters to allow hot swapping to take place without affecting the overall performance of the system. A key element of the control is how the different battery performance characteristics may be taken into account and the how the power is then shared among the different batteries in line with their performance. This paper proposes a control strategy which allows the power in the batteries to be effectively distributed even under capacity fade conditions using adaptive power sharing strategy. This strategy is then validated against a system of three different battery types connected to a multi-modular converter both with and without capacity fade mechanisms in place.

Analysis of extended range variable gain hybrid Raman-EDFAs in systems using Nyquist-WDM 100/200G PM-QPSK/16QAM

We use the GN-model to assess Nyquist-WDM 100/200Gbit/s PM-QPSK/16QAM signal reach on low loss, large core area fibre using extended range, variable gain hybrid Raman-EDFAs. 5000/1500km transmission is possible over a wide range of amplifier spans. © OSA 2014.