Mathematical modelling of patient risks in a hospital environment, using multiple regression analysis

The aim of this research work was primarily to examine the relevance of patient parameters, ward structures, procedures and practices, in respect of the potential hazards of wound cross-infection and nasal colonisation with multiple resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus, which it is thought might provide a useful indication of a patient's general susceptibility to wound infection. Information from a large cross-sectional survey involving 12,000 patients from some 41 hospitals and 375 wards was collected over a five-year period from 1967-72, and its validity checked before any subsequent analysis was carried out. Many environmental factors and procedures which had previously been thought (but never conclusively proved) to have an influence on wound infection or nasal colonisation rates, were assessed, and subsequently dismissed as not being significant, provided that the standard of the current range of practices and procedures is maintained and not allowed to deteriorate. Retrospective analysis revealed that the probability of wound infection was influenced by the patient's age, duration of pre-operative hospitalisation, sex, type of wound, presence and type of drain, number of patients in ward, and other special risk factors, whilst nasal colonisation was found to be influenced by the patient's age, total duration of hospitalisation, sex, antibiotics, proportion of occupied beds in the ward, average distance between bed centres and special risk factors. A multi-variate regression analysis technique was used to develop statistical models, consisting of variable patient and environmental factors which were found to have a significant influence on the risks pertaining to wound infection and nasal colonisation. A relationship between wound infection and nasal colonisation was then established and this led to the development of a more advanced model for predicting wound infections, taking advantage of the additional knowledge of the patient's state of nasal colonisation prior to operation.

Role of copper in reducing hospital environment contamination

The environment may act as a reservoir for pathogens that cause healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs). Approaches to reducing environmental microbial contamination in addition to cleaning are thus worthy of consideration. Copper is well recognised as having antimicrobial activity but this property has not been applied to the clinical setting. We explored its use in a novel cross-over study on an acute medical ward. A toilet seat, set of tap handles and a ward entrance door push plate each containing copper were sampled for the presence of micro-organisms and compared to equivalent standard, non-copper-containing items on the same ward. Items were sampled once weekly for 10 weeks at 07:00 and 17:00. After five weeks, the copper-containing and non-copper-containing items were interchanged. The total aerobic microbial counts per cm2 including the presence of ‘indicator micro-organisms’ were determined. Median numbers of microorganisms harboured by the copper-containing items were between 90% and 100% lower than their control equivalents at both 07:00 and 17:00. This reached statistical significance for each item with one exception. Based on the median total aerobic cfu counts from the study period, five out of ten control sample points and zero out of ten copper points failed proposed benchmark values of a total aerobic count of <5 cfu/cm2. All indicator micro-organisms were only isolated from control items with the exception of one item during one week. The use of copper-containing materials for surfaces in the hospital environment may therefore be a valuable adjunct for the prevention of HCAIs and requires further evaluation.

Needleless connectors:the way forward in the prevention of catheter-related infections?

Letter to the Editor