Post-Bretton Woods evidence on PPP under different exchange rate regimes

This article investigates the behaviour of exchange rates across different regimes for a post-Bretton Woods period. The exchange rate regime classification is based on the classification of Frankel et al. (2004) who condensed the 10 categories of exchange rate regimes reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) into three categories. Panel unitroot tests and panel cointegration are used to examine the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis. The latter test is used to check for both the weak and strong forms of PPP. The panel unit-root tests show no evidence of PPP and suggest there is no difference in the behaviour of exchange rates across different regimes. However, failure to detect PPP across any of the regimes could be due to structural breaks. This assumption is reinforced by the results of cointegration tests, which suggest that there exists at least a weak form of PPP for the different regimes. The evidence for strong PPP decreases as the exchange rate regime moves away from a flexible exchange rate regime.

Early marketing matters:a time-varying parameter approach to persistence modeling

Are persistent marketing effects most likely to appear right after the introduction of a product? The authors give an affirmative answer to this question by developing a model that explicitly reports how persistent and transient marketing effects evolve over time. The proposed model provides managers with a valuable tool to evaluate their allocation of marketing expenditures over time. An application of the model to many pharmaceutical products, estimated through (exact initial) Kalman filtering, indicates that both persistent and transient effects occur predominantly immediately after a brand's introduction. Subsequently, the size of the effects declines. The authors theoretically and empirically compare their methodology with methodology based on unit root testing and demonstrate that the need for unit root tests creates difficulties in applying conventional persistence modeling. The authors recommend that marketing models should either accommodate persistent effects that change over time or be applied to mature brands or limited time windows only.

Mach edges: a critical test of the nonlinear 3rd derivative model for edge-detection

Feature detection is a crucial stage of visual processing. In previous feature-marking experiments we found that peaks in the 3rd derivative of the luminance profile can signify edges where there are no 1st derivative peaks nor 2nd derivative zero-crossings (Wallis and George 'Mach edges' (the edges of Mach bands) were nicely predicted by a new nonlinear model based on 3rd derivative filtering. As a critical test of the model, we now use a new class of stimuli, formed by adding a linear luminance ramp to the blurred triangle waves used previously. The ramp has no effect on the second or higher derivatives, but the nonlinear model predicts a shift from seeing two edges to seeing only one edge as the added ramp gradient increases. In experiment 1, subjects judged whether one or two edges were visible on each trial. In experiment 2, subjects used a cursor to mark perceived edges and bars. The position and polarity of the marked edges were close to model predictions. Both experiments produced the predicted shift from two to one Mach edge, but the shift was less complete than predicted. We conclude that the model is a useful predictor of edge perception, but needs some modification.

Uncovering the root cause of ethnic difference in ability testing:differential test functioning, test familiarity and trait optimism as explanations of ethnic group differences

The present research represents a coherent approach to understanding the root causes of ethnic group differences in ability test performance. Two studies were conducted, each of which was designed to address a key knowledge gap in the ethnic bias literature. In Study 1, both the LR Method of Differential Item Functioning (DIF) detection and Mixture Latent Variable Modelling were used to investigate the degree to which Differential Test Functioning (DTF) could explain ethnic group test performance differences in a large, previously unpublished dataset. Though mean test score differences were observed between a number of ethnic groups, neither technique was able to identify ethnic DTF. This calls into question the practical application of DTF to understanding these group differences. Study 2 investigated whether a number of non-cognitive factors might explain ethnic group test performance differences on a variety of ability tests. Two factors – test familiarity and trait optimism – were able to explain a large proportion of ethnic group test score differences. Furthermore, test familiarity was found to mediate the relationship between socio-economic factors – particularly participant educational level and familial social status – and test performance, suggesting that test familiarity develops over time through the mechanism of exposure to ability testing in other contexts. These findings represent a substantial contribution to the field’s understanding of two key issues surrounding ethnic test performance differences. The author calls for a new line of research into these performance facilitating and debilitating factors, before recommendations are offered for practitioners to ensure fairer deployment of ability testing in high-stakes selection processes.

Added luminance ramp alters perceived edge blur and contrast:A critical test for derivative-based models of edge coding

In many models of edge analysis in biological vision, the initial stage is a linear 2nd derivative operation. Such models predict that adding a linear luminance ramp to an edge will have no effect on the edge's appearance, since the ramp has no effect on the 2nd derivative. Our experiments did not support this prediction: adding a negative-going ramp to a positive-going edge (or vice-versa) greatly reduced the perceived blur and contrast of the edge. The effects on a fairly sharp edge were accurately predicted by a nonlinear multi-scale model of edge processing [Georgeson, M. A., May, K. A., Freeman, T. C. A., & Hesse, G. S. (in press). From filters to features: Scale-space analysis of edge and blur coding in human vision. Journal of Vision], in which a half-wave rectifier comes after the 1st derivative filter. But we also found that the ramp affected perceived blur more profoundly when the edge blur was large, and this greater effect was not predicted by the existing model. The model's fit to these data was much improved when the simple half-wave rectifier was replaced by a threshold-like transducer [May, K. A. & Georgeson, M. A. (2007). Blurred edges look faint, and faint edges look sharp: The effect of a gradient threshold in a multi-scale edge coding model. Vision Research, 47, 1705-1720.]. This modified model correctly predicted that the interaction between ramp gradient and edge scale would be much larger for blur perception than for contrast perception. In our model, the ramp narrows an internal representation of the gradient profile, leading to a reduction in perceived blur. This in turn reduces perceived contrast because estimated blur plays a role in the model's estimation of contrast. Interestingly, the model predicts that analogous effects should occur when the width of the window containing the edge is made narrower. This has already been confirmed for blur perception; here, we further support the model by showing a similar effect for contrast perception. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear diffraction in sub-critical femtosecond inscription

Material processing using high-intensity femtosecond (fs) laser pulses is a fast developing technology holding potential for direct writing of multi-dimensional optical structures in transparent media. In this work we re-examine nonlinear diffraction theory in context of fs laser processing of silica in sub-critical (input power less than the critical power of self-focusing) regime. We have applied well known theory, developed by Vlasov, Petrishev and Talanov, that gives analytical description of the evolution of a root-mean-square beam (not necessarily Gaussian) width RRMS(z) in medium with the Kerr nonlinearity.

A preliminary study into emergent behaviours in a lattice of interacting nonlinear resonators and oscillators

Future sensor arrays will be composed of interacting nonlinear components with complex behaviours with no known analytic solutions. This paper provides a preliminary insight into the expected behaviour through numerical and analytical analysis. Specically, the complex behaviour of a periodically driven nonlinear Duffing resonator coupled elastically to a van der Pol oscillator is investigated as a building block in a 2D lattice of such units with local connectivity. An analytic treatment of the 2-device unit is provided through a two-time-scales approach and the stability of the complex dynamic motion is analysed. The pattern formation characteristics of a 2D lattice composed of these units coupled together through nearest neighbour interactions is analysed numerically for parameters appropriate to a physical realisation through MEMS devices. The emergent patterns of global and cluster synchronisation are investigated with respect to system parameters and lattice size.

Openness and economic growth

The themes of this thesis are that international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are closely related and that they have varying impacts on economic growth in countries at different stages of development. The thesis consists of three empirical studies. The first one examines the causal relationship between FDI and trade in China. The empirical study is based on a panel of bilateral data for China and 19 home countries/regions over the period 1984-98. The specific feature of the study is that econometric techniques designed specially for panel data are applied to test for unit roots and causality. The results indicate a virtuous procedure of development for China. The growth of China’s imports causes growth in inward FDI from a home country/region, which in turn causes the growth of exports from China to the home country/region. The growth of exports causes the growth of imports. This virtuous procedure is the result of China’s policy of opening to the outside world. China has been encouraging export-oriented FDI and reducing trade barriers. Such policy instruments should be further encouraged in order to enhance economic growth. In the second study, an extended gravity model is constructed to identify the main causes of recent trade growth in OECD countries. The specific features include (a) the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as two important explanatory variables into an augmented gravity equation; (b) the adoption of a panel data approach, and (c) the careful treatment of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to the volume of bilateral trade, while the geographical distance, exchange rate and relative factor endowments, has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and economic growth theories. The third study evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups. This research distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: first, both trade and FDI are included in the measurement of openness. Second, countries are divided' into three groups according to their development stages to compare the roles of FDI and trade in different groups. Third, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of FDI and trade are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are that FDI and trade are both beneficial to a country's development. However, trade has positive effects on growth in all country groups but FDI has positive effects on growth only in the country groups which have had moderate development. The findings suggest FDI and trade may affect growth under different conditions.

The appraisal and management of multi-storey dwelling blocks using large concrete panel systems

This exploratory study is concerned with the integrated appraisal of multi-storey dwelling blocks which incorporate large concrete panel systems (LPS). The first step was to look at U.K. multi-storey dwelling stock in general, and under the management of Birmingham City Council in particular. The information has been taken from the databases of three departments in the City of Birmingham, and rearranged in a new database using a suite of PC software called `PROXIMA' for clarity and analysis. One hundred of their stock were built large concrete panel system. Thirteen LPS blocks were chosen for the purpose of this study as case-studies depending mainly on the height and age factors of the block. A new integrated appraisal technique has been created for the LPS dwelling blocks, which takes into account the most physical and social factors affecting the condition and acceptability of these blocks. This appraisal technique is built up in a hierarchical form moving from the general approach to particular elements (a tree model). It comprises two main approaches; physical and social. In the physical approach, the building is viewed as a series of manageable elements and sub-elements to cover every single physical or environmental factor of the block, in which the condition of the block is analysed. A quality score system has been developed which depends mainly on the qualitative and quantitative conditions of each category in the appraisal tree model, and leads to physical ranking order of the study blocks. In the social appraisal approach, the residents' satisfaction and attitude toward their multi-storey dwelling block was analysed in relation to: a. biographical and housing related characteristics; and b. social, physical and environmental factors associated with this sort of dwelling, block and estate in general.The random sample consisted of 268 residents living in the 13 case study blocks. Data collected was analysed using frequency counts, percentages, means, standard deviations, Kendall's tue, r-correlation coefficients, t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multiple regression analysis. The analysis showed a marginally positive satisfaction and attitude towards living in the block. The five most significant factors associated with the residents' satisfaction and attitude in descending order were: the estate, in general; the service categories in the block, including heating system and lift services; vandalism; the neighbours; and the security system of the block. An important attribute of this method, is that it is relatively inexpensive to implement, especially when compared to alternatives adopted by some local authorities and the BRE. It is designed to save time, money and effort, to aid decision making, and to provide ranked priority to the multi-storey dwelling stock, in addition to many other advantages. A series of solution options to the problems of the block was sought for selection and testing before implementation. The traditional solutions have usually resulted in either demolition or costly physical maintenance and social improvement of the blocks. However, a new solution has now emerged, which is particularly suited to structurally sound units. The solution of `re-cycling' might incorporate the reuse of an entire block or part of it, by removing panels, slabs and so forth from the upper floors in order to reconstruct them as low-rise accommodations.

Femtosecond laser micro-inscription of optical coherence tomography resolution test artifacts

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) systems are becoming more commonly used in biomedical imaging and, to enable continued uptake, a reliable method of characterizing their performance and validating their operation is required. This paper outlines the use of femtosecond laser subsurface micro-inscription techniques to fabricate an OCT test artifact for validating the resolution performance of a commercial OCT system. The key advantage of this approach is that by utilizing the nonlinear absorption a three dimensional grid of highly localized point and line defects can be written in clear fused silica substrates.

Nonlinear penalties in dynamic optical networks employing autonomous transponders

We report for the first time on the limitations in the operational power range of network traffic in the presence of heterogeneous 28-Gbaud polarization-multiplexed quadrature amplitude modulation (PM-mQAM) channels in a nine-channel dynamic optical mesh network. In particular, we demonstrate that transponders which autonomously select a modulation order and launch power to optimize their own performance will have a severe impact on copropagating network traffic. Our results also suggest that altruistic transponder operation may offer even lower penalties than fixed launch power operation.

Evolution of optical pulses in fiber lines with lumped nonlinear devices as a mapping problem

We analyze the steady-state propagation of optical pulses in fiber transmission systems with lumped nonlinear optical devices (NODs) placed periodically in the line. For the first time to our knowledge, a theoretical model is developed to describe the transmission regime with a quasilinear pulse evolution along the transmission line and the point action of NODs. We formulate the mapping problem for pulse propagation in a unit cell of the line and show that in the particular application to nonlinear optical loop mirrors, the steady-state pulse characteristics predicted by the theory accurately reproduce the results of direct numerical simulations.

Transparent heterogeneous terrestrial optical communication networks with phase modulated signals

This thesis presents a large scale numerical investigation of heterogeneous terrestrial optical communications systems and the upgrade of fourth generation terrestrial core to metro legacy interconnects to fifth generation transmission system technologies. Retrofitting (without changing infrastructure) is considered for commercial applications. ROADM are crucial enabling components for future core network developments however their re-routing ability means signals can be switched mid-link onto sub-optimally configured paths which raises new challenges in network management. System performance is determined by a trade-off between nonlinear impairments and noise, where the nonlinear signal distortions depend critically on deployed dispersion maps. This thesis presents a comprehensive numerical investigation into the implementation of phase modulated signals in transparent reconfigurable wavelength division multiplexed fibre optic communication terrestrial heterogeneous networks. A key issue during system upgrades is whether differential phase encoded modulation formats are compatible with the cost optimised dispersion schemes employed in current 10 Gb/s systems. We explore how robust transmission is to inevitable variations in the dispersion mapping and how large the margins are when suboptimal dispersion management is applied. We show that a DPSK transmission system is not drastically affected by reconfiguration from periodic dispersion management to lumped dispersion mapping. A novel DPSK dispersion map optimisation methodology which reduces drastically the optimisation parameter space and the many ways to deploy dispersion maps is also presented. This alleviates strenuous computing requirements in optimisation calculations. This thesis provides a very efficient and robust way to identify high performing lumped dispersion compensating schemes for use in heterogeneous RZ-DPSK terrestrial meshed networks with ROADMs. A modified search algorithm which further reduces this number of configuration combinations is also presented. The results of an investigation of the feasibility of detouring signals locally in multi-path heterogeneous ring networks is also presented.

Evolution of optical pulses in fiber lines with lumped nonlinear devices as a mapping problem

We analyze the steady-state propagation of optical pulses in fiber transmission systems with lumped nonlinear optical devices (NODs) placed periodically in the line. For the first time to our knowledge, a theoretical model is developed to describe the transmission regime with a quasilinear pulse evolution along the transmission line and the point action of NODs. We formulate the mapping problem for pulse propagation in a unit cell of the line and show that in the particular application to nonlinear optical loop mirrors, the steady-state pulse characteristics predicted by the theory accurately reproduce the results of direct numerical simulations. © 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Nonlinear diffraction in sub-critical femtosecond inscription

Material processing using high-intensity femtosecond (fs) laser pulses is a fast developing technology holding potential for direct writing of multi-dimensional optical structures in transparent media. In this work we re-examine nonlinear diffraction theory in context of fs laser processing of silica in sub-critical (input power less than the critical power of self-focusing) regime. We have applied well known theory, developed by Vlasov, Petrishev and Talanov, that gives analytical description of the evolution of a root-mean-square beam (not necessarily Gaussian) width RRMS(z) in medium with the Kerr nonlinearity.