Estimating time-varying risk premia in UK long-term government bonds

Simple models of time-varying risk premia are used to measure the risk premia in long-term UK government bonds. The parameters of the models can be estimated using nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NL-SUR), which permits efficient use of information across the entire yield curve and facilitates the testing of various cross-sectional restrictions. The estimated time-varying premia are found to be substantially different to those estimated using models that assume constant risk premia. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.

The side effects of quantitative easing:evidence from the UK bond market

We examine the returns to UK government bonds before, during and between the phases of quantitative easing to identify the side effects for the market itself. We show that the onset of QE led to a sustained reduction in the costs of trading and removed some return regularities. However, controlling for a wide range of market activity, including issuance and QE announcements, we find evidence that investors could have earned excess returns after costs by trading in response to the purchase auction calendar. Drawing on economic theory, we explore the implications of these findings for both the efficiency of the market and the costs of government debt management in both the short and long run.

The rise and fall of diasporic bonds in Japanese-Peruvian “Return” migration

Two decades after Japanese-Peruvians and other South Americans of Japanese descent began to migrate back to Japan, the return-migration phenomenon has ended. Induced by the Japanese government in the name of shared ethnicity, Japanese policymakers now largely regard return migration as a failed policy. It failed because return-migrants did not, in the view of policy- makers, assimilate, integrate, or “make it” in Japan as expected. Thus, once-imagined ethnic bonds ceased to exist in Japan. However, ethnic bonds sustained themselves well outside Japan. The Japanese-Peruvian community in Peru has thrived and maintained continuous ties with Japan. What explains the rise and fall of diasporic ethnic bonds? Drawing on my ethnographic research in Japanese-Peruvian communities in Peru and Japan, I found that diasporic ethnic bonds are cultivated or weakened depending upon where diasporic populations are located in relation to their ancestral homeland, and how such ties are utilized, for what, and by whom.