The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

A general linear model for MEG beamformer imaging

A new general linear model (GLM) beamformer method is described for processing magnetoencephalography (MEG) data. A standard nonlinear beamformer is used to determine the time course of neuronal activation for each point in a predefined source space. A Hilbert transform gives the envelope of oscillatory activity at each location in any chosen frequency band (not necessary in the case of sustained (DC) fields), enabling the general linear model to be applied and a volumetric T statistic image to be determined. The new method is illustrated by a two-source simulation (sustained field and 20 Hz) and is shown to provide accurate localization. The method is also shown to locate accurately the increasing and decreasing gamma activities to the temporal and frontal lobes, respectively, in the case of a scintillating scotoma. The new method brings the advantages of the general linear model to the analysis of MEG data and should prove useful for the localization of changing patterns of activity across all frequency ranges including DC (sustained fields). �� 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A risk-based model for inspection and maintenance of cross-country petroleum pipeline

The existing method of pipeline health monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, is both time-wasting and expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been presented. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests efficient design and operation philosophy, construction methodology and logical insurance plans. The risk-based model uses Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique, to identify the factors that influence failure on specific segments and analyzes their effects by determining probability of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis. From this, the effect of a failure caused by each risk factor can be established in terms of cost, and the cumulative effect of failure is determined through probability analysis. The technique does not totally eliminate subjectivity, but it is an improvement over the existing inspection method.

A model of transactional and transformational leadership for services personnel

This paper is concerned with the effects that leadership styles (i.e., transactional and transformational) can have upon the level of front-line employees��� service delivery quality. Previous literature has mostly looked at leadership and its effects upon subordinates within a sales, psychology, or human resources context. However, due to the idiosyncrasies inherent in services (i.e., intangibility, heterogeneity, perishability, and inseparability), it is likely that, in such a context, different leadership styles will effect performance outcomes. Consequently, this paper seeks to expand the services marketing literature by developing a conceptual framework of leadership style effects adapted to the field of services marketing. Of particular importance are the effects that leadership styles have upon front-line employee ���motivators��� and service-related job outcomes. Specific hypotheses are developed and future research directions are also presented for consideration.

Sparkling fountains or stagnant ponds:An integrative model of creativity and innovation implementation in work groups

In this article I synthesise research and theory that advance our understanding of creativity and innovation implementation in groups at work. It is suggested that creativity occurs primarily at the early stages of innovation processes with innovation implementation later. The influences of task characteristics, group knowledge diversity and skill, external demands, integrating group processes and intragroup safety are explored. Creativity, it is proposed, is hindered whereas perceived threat, uncertainty or other high levels of demands aid the implementation of innovation. Diversity of knowledge and skills is a powerful predictor of innovation, but integrating group processes and competencies are needed to enable the fruits of this diversity to be harvested. The implications for theory and practice are also explored.

An Investigation into the adoption and implementation of computer aided production management systems:using the Rogers model of adoption and implementation and a social constuctionist account of technology

The research investigates the processes of adoption and implementation, by organisations, of computer aided production management systems (CAPM). It is organised around two different theoretical perspectives. The first part is informed by the Rogers model of the diffusion, adoption and implementation of innovations, and the second part by a social constructionist approach to technology. Rogers' work is critically evaluated and a model of adoption and implementation is distilled from it and applied to a set of empirical case studies. In the light of the case study data, strengths and weaknesses of the model are identified. It is argued that the model is too rational and linear to provide an adequate explanation of adoption processes. It is useful for understanding processes of implementation but requires further development. The model is not able to adequately encompass complex computer based technologies. However, the idea of 'reinvention' is identified as Roger's key concept but it needs to be conceptually extended. Both Roger's model and definition of CAPM found in the literature from production engineering tend to treat CAPM in objectivist terms. The problems with this view are addressed through a review of the literature on the sociology of technology, and it is argued that a social constructionist approach offers a more useful framework for understanding CAPM, its nature, adoption, implementation, and use. CAPM it is argued, must be understood on terms of the ways in which it is constituted in discourse, as part of a 'struggle for meaning' on the part of academics, professional engineers, suppliers, and users.

Development of a multicellular co-culture model of normal and cystic fibrosis human airways in vitro

Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common lethal inherited disease among Caucasians and arises due to mutations in a chloride channel, called cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator. A hallmark of this disease is the chronic bacterial infection of the airways, which is usually, associated with pathogens such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa, S. aureus and recently becoming more prominent, B. cepacia. The excessive inflammatory response, which leads to irreversible lung damage, will in the long term lead to mortality of the patient at around the age of 40 years. Understanding the pathogenesis of CF currently relies on animal models, such as those employing genetically-modified mice, and on single cell culture models, which are grown either as polarised or non-polarised epithelium in vitro. Whilst these approaches partially enable the study of disease progression in CF, both types of models have inherent limitations. The overall aim of this thesis was to establish a multicellular co-culture model of normal and CF human airways in vitro, which helps to partially overcome these limitations and permits analysis of cell-to-cell communication in the airways. These models could then be used to examine the co-ordinated response of the airways to infection with relevant pathogens in order to validate this approach over animals/single cell models. Therefore epithelial cell lines of non-CF and CF background were employed in a co-culture model together with human pulmonary fibroblasts. Co-cultures were grown on collagen-coated permeable supports at air-liquid interface to promote epithelial cell differentiation. The models were characterised and essential features for investigating CF infections and inflammatory responses were investigated and analysed. A pseudostratified like epithelial cell layer was established at air liquid interface (ALI) of mono-and co-cultures and cell layer integrity was verified by tight junction (TJ) staining and transepithelial resistance measurements (TER). Mono- and co-cultures were also found to secrete the airway mucin MUC5AC. Influence of bacterial infections was found to be most challenging when intact S. aureus, B. cepacia and P. aeruginosa were used. CF mono- and co-cultures were found to mimic the hyperinflammatory state found in CF, which was confirmed by analysing IL-8 secretions of these models. These co-culture models will help to elucidate the role fibroblasts play in the inflammatory response to bacteria and will provide a useful testing platform to further investigate the dysregulated airway responses seen in CF.

Methodology for development of a physiological model incorporating CYP3A and P-glycoprotein for the prediction of intestinal drug absorption

The small intestine poses a major barrier to the efficient absorption of orally administered therapeutics. Intestinal epithelial cells are an extremely important site for extrahepatic clearance, primarily due to prominent P-glycoprotein-mediated active efflux and the presence of cytochrome P450s. We describe a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model which incorporates geometric variations, pH alterations and descriptions of the abundance and distribution of cytochrome 3A and P-glycoprotein along the length of the small intestine. Simulations using preclinical in vitro data for model drugs were performed to establish the influence of P-glycoprotein efflux, cytochrome 3A metabolism and passive permeability on drug available for absorption within the enterocytes. The fraction of drug escaping the enterocyte (F(G)) for 10 cytochrome 3A substrates with a range of intrinsic metabolic clearances were simulated. Following incorporation of P-glycoprotein in vitro efflux ratios all predicted F(G) values were within 20% of observed in vivo F(G). The presence of P-glycoprotein increased the level of cytochrome 3A drug metabolism by up to 12-fold in the distal intestine. F(G) was highly sensitive to changes in intrinsic metabolic clearance but less sensitive to changes in intestinal drug permeability. The model will be valuable for quantifying aspects of intestinal drug absorption and distribution.

A probabilistic model for trust and reputation

This paper concerns the problem of agent trust in an electronic market place. We maintain that agent trust involves making decisions under uncertainty and therefore the phenomenon should be modelled probabilistically. We therefore propose a probabilistic framework that models agent interactions as a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The observations of the HMM are the interaction outcomes and the hidden state is the underlying probability of a good outcome. The task of deciding whether to interact with another agent reduces to probabilistic inference of the current state of that agent given all previous interaction outcomes. The model is extended to include a probabilistic reputation system which involves agents gathering opinions about other agents and fusing them with their own beliefs. Our system is fully probabilistic and hence delivers the following improvements with respect to previous work: (a) the model assumptions are faithfully translated into algorithms; our system is optimal under those assumptions, (b) It can account for agents whose behaviour is not static with time (c) it can estimate the rate with which an agent's behaviour changes. The system is shown to significantly outperform previous state-of-the-art methods in several numerical experiments. Copyright �� 2010, International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (www.ifaamas.org). All rights reserved.

A stepwise fuzzy linear programming model with possibility and necessity relations

Linear programming (LP) is the most widely used optimization technique for solving real-life problems because of its simplicity and efficiency. Although conventional LP models require precise data, managers and decision makers dealing with real-world optimization problems often do not have access to exact values. Fuzzy sets have been used in the fuzzy LP (FLP) problems to deal with the imprecise data in the decision variables, objective function and/or the constraints. The imprecisions in the FLP problems could be related to (1) the decision variables; (2) the coefficients of the decision variables in the objective function; (3) the coefficients of the decision variables in the constraints; (4) the right-hand-side of the constraints; or (5) all of these parameters. In this paper, we develop a new stepwise FLP model where fuzzy numbers are considered for the coefficients of the decision variables in the objective function, the coefficients of the decision variables in the constraints and the right-hand-side of the constraints. In the first step, we use the possibility and necessity relations for fuzzy constraints without considering the fuzzy objective function. In the subsequent step, we extend our method to the fuzzy objective function. We use two numerical examples from the FLP literature for comparison purposes and to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method and the computational efficiency of the procedures and algorithms. �� 2013-IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved.

Material and efficient cause interpretations of the formative model:resolving misunderstandings and clarifying conceptual language

This paper presents a causal explanation of formative variables that unpacks and clarifies the generally accepted idea that formative indicators are ���causes��� of the focal formative variable. In doing this, we explore the recent paper by Diamantopoulos and Temme (AMS Review, 3(3), 160-171, 2013) and show that the latter misunderstand the stance of Lee, Cadogan, and Chamberlain (AMS Review, 3(1), 3-17, 2013; see also Cadogan, Lee, and Chamberlain, AMS Review, 3(1), 38-49, 2013). By drawing on the multiple ways that one can interpret the idea of causality within the MIMIC model, we then demonstrate how the continued defense of the MIMIC model as a tool to validate formative indicators and to identify formative variables in structural models is misguided. We also present unambiguous recommendations on how formative variables can be modelled in lieu of the formative MIMIC model.

A low mortality, high morbidity Reduced Intensity Status Epilepticus (RISE) model of epilepsy and epileptogenesis in the rat

Animal models of acquired epilepsies aim to provide researchers with tools for use in understanding the processes underlying the acquisition, development and establishment of the disorder. Typically, following a systemic or local insult, vulnerable brain regions undergo a process leading to the development, over time, of spontaneous recurrent seizures. Many such models make use of a period of intense seizure activity or status epilepticus, and this may be associated with high mortality and/or global damage to large areas of the brain. These undesirable elements have driven improvements in the design of chronic epilepsy models, for example the lithium-pilocarpine epileptogenesis model. Here, we present an optimised model of chronic epilepsy that reduces mortality to 1% whilst retaining features of high epileptogenicity and development of spontaneous seizures. Using local field potential recordings from hippocampus in vitro as a probe, we show that the model does not result in significant loss of neuronal network function in area CA3 and, instead, subtle alterations in network dynamics appear during a process of epileptogenesis, which eventually leads to a chronic seizure state. The model���s features of very low mortality and high morbidity in the absence of global neuronal damage offer the chance to explore the processes underlying epileptogenesis in detail, in a population of animals not defined by their resistance to seizures, whilst acknowledging and being driven by the 3Rs (Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of animal use in scientific procedures) principles.