Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

The design and engineering of a reactor test facility for thermal processing of biomass

This thesis describes the design and engineering of a pressurised biomass gasification test facility. A detailed examination of the major elements within the plant has been undertaken in relation to specification of equipment, evaluation of options and final construction. The retrospective project assessment was developed from consideration of relevant literature and theoretical principles. The literature review includes a discussion on legislation and applicable design codes. From this analysis, each of the necessary equipment units was reviewed and important design decisions and procedures highlighted and explored. Particular emphasis was placed on examination of the stringent demands of the ASME VIII design codes. The inter-relationship of functional units was investigated and areas of deficiency, such as biomass feeders and gas cleaning, have been commented upon. Finally, plant costing was summarized in relation to the plant design and proposed experimental programme. The main conclusion drawn from the study is that pressurised gasification of biomass is far more difficult and expensive to support than atmospheric gasification. A number of recommendations have been made regarding future work in this area.

Ground cracking and frost heaving associated with chilled gas pipeline operations in Britain

This thesis investigates the soil-pipeline interactions associated with the operation of large-diameter chilled gas pipelines in Britain, these are frost/pipe heave and ground cracking. The investigation was biased towards the definition of the mechanism of ground cracking and, the parameters which influence its generation and subsequent development, especially its interaction with frost heave. The study involved a literature review, questionnaire, large-scale test and small-scale laboratory model experiments. The literature review concentrated on soil-pipeline interactions and frost action, with frost/pipe heave often reported but ground cracking was seldom reported. A questionnaire was circulated within British Gas to gain further information on these interactions. The replies indicated that if frost/pipe heave was reported, ground cracking was also likely to be observed. These soil-pipeline interactions were recorded along 19% of pipelines in the survey and were more likely along the larger diameter, higher flow pipelines. A large-scale trial along a 900 mm pipeline was undertaken to assess the soil thermal, hydraulic and stress regimes, together with pipe and ground movements. Results indicated that cracking occurred intermittently along the pipeline during periods of rapid frost/pipe heave and ground movement and, that frozen annulus growth produced a ground surface profile was approximated by a normal probability distribution curve. This curve indicates maximum tensile strain directly over the pipe centre. Finally a small-scale laboratory model was operated to further define the ground cracking mechanism. Ground cracking was observed at small upward ground surface movement, and with continued movement the ground crack increased in width and depth. At the end of the experiments internal soil failure planes slanting upwards and away from the frozen annulus were noted. The suggested mechanism for ground cracking involved frozen annulus growth producing tensile strain in the overlying unfrozen soil, which when sufficient produced a crack.

Technique for passive scene imaging of gas and vapor plumes using transmission-waveband modulation

A new approach to locating gas and vapor plumes is proposed that is entirely passive. By modulating the transmission waveband of a narrow-band filter, an intensity modulation is established that allows regions of an image to be identified as containing a specific gas with absorption characteristics aligned with the filter. A system built from readily available components was constructed to identify regions of NO. Initial results show that this technique was able to distinguish an absorption cell containing NO gas in a test scene. © 2012 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).