Approximate Bayesian techniques for inference in stochastic dynamical systems

This thesis is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variant of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here two new extended frameworks are derived and presented that are based on basis function expansions and local polynomial approximations of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. It is shown that the new extensions converge to the original variational algorithm and can be used for state estimation (smoothing). However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new methods are numerically validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, for which the exact likelihood can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz '63 (3-dimensional model). The algorithms are also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz '96 system. In this investigation these new approaches are compared with a variety of other well known methods such as the ensemble Kalman filter / smoother, a hybrid Monte Carlo sampler, the dual unscented Kalman filter (for jointly estimating the systems states and model parameters) and full weak-constraint 4D-Var. Empirical analysis of their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases is provided.

A basis function approach to Bayesian inference in diffusion processes

In this paper, we present a framework for Bayesian inference in continuous-time diffusion processes. The new method is directly related to the recently proposed variational Gaussian Process approximation (VGPA) approach to Bayesian smoothing of partially observed diffusions. By adopting a basis function expansion (BF-VGPA), both the time-dependent control parameters of the approximate GP process and its moment equations are projected onto a lower-dimensional subspace. This allows us both to reduce the computational complexity and to eliminate the time discretisation used in the previous algorithm. The new algorithm is tested on an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our preliminary results show that BF-VGPA algorithm provides a reasonably accurate state estimation using a small number of basis functions.

Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

Estimation of functional connectivity from electromagnetic signals and the amount of empirical data required

An increasing number of neuroimaging studies are concerned with the identification of interactions or statistical dependencies between brain areas. Dependencies between the activities of different brain regions can be quantified with functional connectivity measures such as the cross-correlation coefficient. An important factor limiting the accuracy of such measures is the amount of empirical data available. For event-related protocols, the amount of data also affects the temporal resolution of the analysis. We use analytical expressions to calculate the amount of empirical data needed to establish whether a certain level of dependency is significant when the time series are autocorrelated, as is the case for biological signals. These analytical results are then contrasted with estimates from simulations based on real data recorded with magnetoencephalography during a resting-state paradigm and during the presentation of visual stimuli. Results indicate that, for broadband signals, 50-100 s of data is required to detect a true underlying cross-correlations coefficient of 0.05. This corresponds to a resolution of a few hundred milliseconds for typical event-related recordings. The required time window increases for narrow band signals as frequency decreases. For instance, approximately 3 times as much data is necessary for signals in the alpha band. Important implications can be derived for the design and interpretation of experiments to characterize weak interactions, which are potentially important for brain processing.

Abnormal left and right amygdala-orbitofrontal cortical functional connectivity to emotional faces:state versus trait vulnerability markers of depression in bipolar disorder

Background - Amygdala-orbitofrontal cortical (OFC) functional connectivity (FC) to emotional stimuli and relationships with white matter remain little examined in bipolar disorder individuals (BD). Methods - Thirty-one BD (type I; n = 17 remitted; n = 14 depressed) and 24 age- and gender-ratio-matched healthy individuals (HC) viewed neutral, mild, and intense happy or sad emotional faces in two experiments. The FC was computed as linear and nonlinear dependence measures between amygdala and OFC time series. Effects of group, laterality, and emotion intensity upon amygdala-OFC FC and amygdala-OFC FC white matter fractional anisotropy (FA) relationships were examined. Results - The BD versus HC showed significantly greater right amygdala-OFC FC (p = .001) in the sad experiment and significantly reduced bilateral amygdala-OFC FC (p = .007) in the happy experiment. Depressed but not remitted female BD versus female HC showed significantly greater left amygdala-OFC FC (p = .001) to all faces in the sad experiment and reduced bilateral amygdala-OFC FC to intense happy faces (p = .01). There was a significant nonlinear relationship (p = .001) between left amygdala-OFC FC to sad faces and FA in HC. In BD, antidepressants were associated with significantly reduced left amygdala-OFC FC to mild sad faces (p = .001). Conclusions - In BD, abnormally elevated right amygdala-OFC FC to sad stimuli might represent a trait vulnerability for depression, whereas abnormally elevated left amygdala-OFC FC to sad stimuli and abnormally reduced amygdala-OFC FC to intense happy stimuli might represent a depression state marker. Abnormal FC measures might normalize with antidepressant medications in BD. Nonlinear amygdala-OFC FC–FA relationships in BD and HC require further study.

Hypnotic induction is followed by state-like changes in the organization of EEG functional connectivity in the theta and beta frequency bands in high-hypnotically susceptible individuals

Altered state theories of hypnosis posit that a qualitatively distinct state of mental processing, which emerges in those with high hypnotic susceptibility following a hypnotic induction, enables the generation of anomalous experiences in response to specific hypnotic suggestions. If so then such a state should be observable as a discrete pattern of changes to functional connectivity (shared information) between brain regions following a hypnotic induction in high but not low hypnotically susceptible participants. Twenty-eight channel EEG was recorded from 12 high susceptible (highs) and 11 low susceptible (lows) participants with their eyes closed prior to and following a standard hypnotic induction. The EEG was used to provide a measure of functional connectivity using both coherence (COH) and the imaginary component of coherence (iCOH), which is insensitive to the effects of volume conduction. COH and iCOH were calculated between all electrode pairs for the frequency bands: delta (0.1-3.9 Hz), theta (4-7.9 Hz) alpha (8-12.9 Hz), beta1 (13-19.9 Hz), beta2 (20-29.9 Hz) and gamma (30-45 Hz). The results showed that there was an increase in theta iCOH from the pre-hypnosis to hypnosis condition in highs but not lows with a large proportion of significant links being focused on a central-parietal hub. There was also a decrease in beta1 iCOH from the pre-hypnosis to hypnosis condition with a focus on a fronto-central and an occipital hub that was greater in high compared to low susceptibles. There were no significant differences for COH or for spectral band amplitude in any frequency band. The results are interpreted as indicating that the hypnotic induction elicited a qualitative change in the organization of specific control systems within the brain for high as compared to low susceptible participants. This change in the functional organization of neural networks is a plausible indicator of the much theorized "hypnotic-state". © 2014 Jamieson and Burgess.

Free energy functional expansion as the generalized approach to the equation of state of dense fluids

A version of the thermodynamic perturbation theory based on a scaling transformation of the partition function has been applied to the statistical derivation of the equation of state in a highpressure region. Two modifications of the equations of state have been obtained on the basis of the free energy functional perturbation series. The comparative analysis of the experimental PV T- data on the isothermal compression for the supercritical fluids of inert gases has been carried out. © 2012.

Altered resting-state EEG source functional connectivity in schizophrenia:the effect of illness duration

Despite the increasing body of evidence supporting the hypothesis of schizophrenia as a disconnection syndrome, studies of resting-state EEG Source Functional Connectivity (EEG-SFC) in people affected by schizophrenia are sparse. The aim of the present study was to investigate resting-state EEG-SFC in 77 stable, medicated patients with schizophrenia (SCZ) compared to 78 healthy volunteers (HV). In order to study the effect of illness duration, SCZ were divided in those with a short duration of disease (SDD; n = 25) and those with a long duration of disease (LDD; n = 52). Resting-state EEG recordings in eyes closed condition were analyzed and lagged phase synchronization (LPS) indices were calculated for each ROI pair in the source-space EEG data. In delta and theta bands, SCZ had greater EEG-SFC than HV; a higher theta band connectivity in frontal regions was observed in LDD compared with SDD. In the alpha band, SCZ showed lower frontal EEG-SFC compared with HV whereas no differences were found between LDD and SDD. In the beta1 band, SCZ had greater EEG-SFC compared with HVs and in the beta2 band, LDD presented lower frontal and parieto-temporal EEG-SFC compared with HV. In the gamma band, SDD had greater connectivity values compared with LDD and HV. This study suggests that resting state brain network connectivity is abnormally organized in schizophrenia, with different patterns for the different EEG frequency components and that EEG can be a powerful tool to further elucidate the complexity of such disordered connectivity.

A Luenberger state observer for stator resistance estimation in sensorless induction motor drives

The primary objective of this paper is to elimination of the problem of sensitivity to parameter variation of induction motor drive. The proposed sensorless strategy is based on an algorithm permitting a better simultaneous estimation of the rotor speed and the stator resistance including an adaptive mechanism based on the lyaponov theory. To study the reliability and the robustness of the sensorless technique to abnormal operations, some simulation tests have been performed under several cases. The proposed sensorless vector control scheme showed a good performance behavior in the transient and steady states, with an excellent disturbance rejection of the load torque. © 2013 Praise Worthy Prize S.r.l. - All rights reserved.

Computer control of chemical process plants with special reference to distillation

A sieve plate distillation column has been constructed and interfaced to a minicomputer with the necessary instrumentation for dynamic, estimation and control studies with special bearing on low-cost and noise-free instrumentation. A dynamic simulation of the column with a binary liquid system has been compiled using deterministic models that include fluid dynamics via Brambilla's equation for tray liquid holdup calculations. The simulation predictions have been tested experimentally under steady-state and transient conditions. The simulator's predictions of the tray temperatures have shown reasonably close agreement with the measured values under steady-state conditions and in the face of a step change in the feed rate. A method of extending linear filtering theory to highly nonlinear systems with very nonlinear measurement functional relationships has been proposed and tested by simulation on binary distillation. The simulation results have proved that the proposed methodology can overcome the typical instability problems associated with the Kalman filters. Three extended Kalman filters have been formulated and tested by simulation. The filters have been used to refine a much simplified model sequentially and to estimate parameters such as the unmeasured feed composition using information from the column simulation. It is first assumed that corrupted tray composition measurements are made available to the filter and then corrupted tray temperature measurements are accessed instead. The simulation results have demonstrated the powerful capability of the Kalman filters to overcome the typical hardware problems associated with the operation of on-line analyzers in relation to distillation dynamics and control by, in effect, replacirig them. A method of implementing estimator-aided feedforward (EAFF) control schemes has been proposed and tested by simulation on binary distillation. The results have shown that the EAFF scheme provides much better control and energy conservation than the conventional feedback temperature control in the face of a sustained step change in the feed rate or multiple changes in the feed rate, composition and temperature. Further extensions of this work are recommended as regards simulation, estimation and EAFF control.

Putting people first? Chinese state-owned enterprises' adjustment to globalisation

This paper analyses the impact of FDI on the employment, productivity, profitability and survival performance of urban SOEs in China, with the aid of a rich panel data set over the period 1999–2005. Our estimation strategy controls for the endogeneity of a number of regressors and accounts for firm-level unobserved heterogeneity. Four key results emerge from the analysis: (i) Firmlevel foreign finance enhances the employment and productivity growth of SOEs, as well as their survival prospects; (ii) Competition from sectoral FDI has a deleterious impact on the growth and survival probability of SOEs without access to any foreign capital; (iii) Export-oriented FDI in downstream sectors has negative performance ramifications; and (iv) There are no discernible spillover effects that can be attributed to FDI in upstream sectors, suggesting limited linkages between multinational firms and SOEs.

Functional interconnectivity between the globus pallidus and the subthalamic nucleus in the mouse brain slice

In accordance with its central role in basal ganglia circuitry, changes in the rate of action potential firing and pattern of activity in the globus pallidus (GP)-subthalamic nucleus (STN) network are apparent in movement disorders. In this study we have developed a mouse brain slice preparation that maintains the functional connectivity between the GP and STN in order to assess its role in shaping and modulating bursting activity promoted by pharmacological manipulations. Fibre-tract tracing studies indicated that a parasagittal slice cut 20 deg to the midline best preserved connectivity between the GP and the STN. IPSCs and EPSCs elicited by electrical stimulation confirmed connectivity from GP to STN in 44/59 slices and from STN to GP in 22/33 slices, respectively. In control slices, 74/76 (97%) of STN cells fired tonically at a rate of 10.3 ± 1.3 Hz. This rate and pattern of single spiking activity was unaffected by bath application of the GABAA antagonist picrotoxin (50 μM, n = 9) or the glutamate receptor antagonist (6-cyano-7-nitroquinoxaline-2, 3-dione (CNQX) 10 μM, n = 8). Bursting activity in STN neurones could be induced pharmacologically by application of NMDA alone (20 μM, 3/18 cells, 17%) but was more robust if NMDA was applied in conjunction with apamin (20-100 nM, 34/77 cells, 44%). Once again, neither picrotoxin (50 μM, n = 5) nor CNQX (10 μM, n = 5) had any effect on the frequency or pattern of the STN neurone activity while paired STN and GP recordings of tonic and bursting activity show no evidence of coherent activity. Thus, in a mouse brain slice preparation where functional GP-STN connectivity is preserved, no regenerative synaptically mediated activity indicative of a dynamic network is evident, either in the resting state or when neuronal bursting in both the GP and STN is generated by application of NMDA/apamin. This difference from the brain in Parkinson's disease may be attributed either to insufficient preservation of cortico-striato-pallidal or cortico-subthalamic circuitry, and/or an essential requirement for adaptive changes resulting from dopamine depletion for the expression of network activity within this tissue complex. © The Physiological Society 2005.

Prediction of the equilibrium structures and photomagnetic properties of the Prussian blue analogue RbMn[Fe(CN)6] by density functional theory

A periodic density functional theory method using the B3LYP hybrid exchange-correlation potential is applied to the Prussian blue analogue RbMn[Fe(CN)6] to evaluate the suitability of the method for studying, and predicting, the photomagnetic behavior of Prussian blue analogues and related materials. The method allows correct description of the equilibrium structures of the different electronic configurations with regard to the cell parameters and bond distances. In agreement with the experimental data, the calculations have shown that the low-temperature phase (LT; Fe(2+)(t(6)2g, S = 0)-CN-Mn(3+)(t(3)2g e(1)g, S = 2)) is the stable phase at low temperature instead of the high-temperature phase (HT; Fe(3+)(t(5)2g, S = 1/2)-CN-Mn(2+)(t(3)2g e(2)g, S = 5/2)). Additionally, the method gives an estimation for the enthalpy difference (HT LT) with a value of 143 J mol(-1) K(-1). The comparison of our calculations with experimental data from the literature and from our calorimetric and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements on the Rb0.97Mn[Fe(CN)6]0.98 x 1.03 H2O compound is analyzed, and in general, a satisfactory agreement is obtained. The method also predicts the metastable nature of the electronic configuration of the high-temperature phase, a necessary condition to photoinduce that phase at low temperatures. It gives a photoactivation energy of 2.36 eV, which is in agreement with photoinduced demagnetization produced by a green laser.