Mean-variance Vs. full-scale optimization: broad evidence for the UK

This article investigates the performance of a model called Full-Scale Optimisation, which was presented recently and is used for financial investment advice. The investor’s preferences of expected risk and return are entered into the model, and a recommended portfolio is produced. This model is theoretically more accurate than the mainstream investment advice model, called Mean-Variance Optimization, as there are fewer assumptions made. Our investigation of the model’s performance is broader when it comes to investor preferences, and more general when it comes to investment type, as compared to previous studies. Our investigation shows that Full-Scale Optimisation is more widely applicable than earlier known.

Stock selection with full-scale optimization and differential evolution

When composing stock portfolios, managers frequently choose among hundreds of stocks. The stocks' risk properties are analyzed with statistical tools, and managers try to combine these to meet the investors' risk profiles. A recently developed tool for performing such optimization is called full-scale optimization (FSO). This methodology is very flexible for investor preferences, but because of computational limitations it has until now been infeasible to use when many stocks are considered. We apply the artificial intelligence technique of differential evolution to solve FSO-type stock selection problems of 97 assets. Differential evolution finds the optimal solutions by self-learning from randomly drawn candidate solutions. We show that this search technique makes large scale problem computationally feasible and that the solutions retrieved are stable. The study also gives further merit to the FSO technique, as it shows that the solutions suit investor risk profiles better than portfolios retrieved from traditional methods.

The development of a testing procedure for dry friction brakes

A description of the background to testing friction materials for automotive brakes explains the need for a rapid, inexpensive means of assessing their behaviour in a way which is both accurate and meaningful. Various methods of controlling inertia dynamometers to simulate road vehicles are rejected in favour of programming by means of a commercially available XY plotter. Investigation of brake service conditions is used to set up test schedules, and a dynamometer programming unit built to enable service conditions on vehicles to be simulated on a full scale dynamometer. A technique is developed by which accelerated testing can be achieved without operating under overload conditions, saving time and cost without sacrificing validity. The development of programming by XY plotter is described, with a method of operating one XY plotter to programme the machine, monitor its own behaviour, and plot its own results in logical sequence. Commissioning trials are described and the generation of reproducible results in frictional behaviour and material durability is discussed. Teclmiques are developed to cross check the operation of the machine in retrospect, and retrospectively correct results in the event of malfunctions. Sensitivity errors in the measuring circuits are displayed between calibrations, whilst leaving the recorded results almost unaffected by error. Typical results of brake lining tests are used to demonstrate the range of performance parameters which can be studied by use of the machine. Successful test investigations completed on the machine are reported, including comments on behaviour of cast iron drums and discs. The machine shows that materials can repeat their complex friction/ temperature/speed/pressure relationships at a reproducibility of the order of +-0.003u and +~ 0.0002 in. thickness loss during wear tests. Discussion of practical and academic implications completes the report with recommendations for further work in both fields.

Flow patterns and performance of distillation trays

It is known that distillation tray efficiency depends on the liquid flow pattern, particularly for large diameter trays. Scale·up failures due to liquid channelling have occurred, and it is known that fitting flow control devices to trays sometirr.es improves tray efficiency. Several theoretical models which explain these observations have been published. Further progress in understanding is at present blocked by lack of experimental measurements of the pattern of liquid concentration over the tray. Flow pattern effects are expected to be significant only on commercial size trays of a large diameter and the lack of data is a result of the costs, risks and difficulty of making these measurements on full scale production columns. This work presents a new experiment which simulates distillation by water cooling. and provides a means of testing commercial size trays in the laboratory. Hot water is fed on to the tray and cooled by air forced through the perforations. The analogy between heat and mass transfer shows that the water temperature at any point is analogous to liquid concentration and the enthalpy of the air is analogous to vapour concentration. The effect of the liquid flow pattern on mass transfer is revealed by the temperature field on the tray. The experiment was implemented and evaluated in a column of 1.2 m. dia. The water temperatures were measured by thennocouples interfaced to an electronic computerised data logging system. The "best surface" through the experimental temperature measurements was obtained by the mathematical technique of B. splines, and presented in tenos of lines of constant temperature. The results revealed that in general liquid channelling is more imponant in the bubbly "mixed" regime than in the spray regime. However, it was observed that severe channelling also occurred for intense spray at incipient flood conditions. This is an unexpected result. A computer program was written to calculate point efficiency as well as tray efficiency, and the results were compared with distillation efficiencies for similar loadings. The theoretical model of Porter and Lockett for predicting distillation was modified to predict water cooling and the theoretical predictions were shown to be similar to the experimental temperature profiles. A comparison of the repeatability of the experiments with an errors analysis revealed that accurate tray efficiency measurements require temperature measurements to better than ± 0.1 °c which is achievable with conventional techniques. This was not achieved in this work, and resulted in considerable scatter in the efficiency results. Nevertheless it is concluded that the new experiment is a valuable tool for investigating the effect of the liquid flow pattern on tray mass transfer.

Fast pyrolysis of biomass in a circulating fluidised bed reactor

The objective of this work was to design, construct, test and operate a novel circulating fluid bed fast pyrolysis reactor system for production of liquids from biomass. The novelty lies in incorporating an integral char combustor to provide autothermal operation. A reactor design methodology was devised which correlated input parameters to process variables, namely temperature, heat transfer and gas/vapour residence time, for both the char combustor and biomass pyrolyser. From this methodology a CFB reactor was designed with integral char combustion for 10 kg/h biomass throughput. A full-scale cold model of the CFB unit was constructed and tested to derive suitable hydrodynamic relationships and performance constraints. Early difficulties encountered with poor solids circulation and inefficient product recovery were overcome by a series of modifications. A total of 11 runs in a pyrolysis mode were carried out with a maximum total liquids yield of 61.50% wt on a maf biomass basis, obtained at 500°C and with 0.46 s gas/vapour residence time. This could be improved by improved vapour recovery by direct quenching up to an anticipated 75 % wt on a moisture-and-ash-free biomass basis. The reactor provides a very high specific throughput of 1.12 - 1.48 kg/hm2 and the lowest gas-to-feed ratio of 1.3 - 1.9 kg gas/kg feed compared to other fast pyrolysis processes based on pneumatic reactors and has a good scale-up potential. These features should provide significant capital cost reduction. Results to date suggest that the process is limited by the extent of char combustion. Future work will address resizing of the char combustor to increase overall system capacity, improvement in solid separation and substantially better liquid recovery. Extended testing will provide better evaluation of steady state operation and provide data for process simulation and reactor modeling.

Brush plating of bearing alloys on aluminium alloy shells

The turbocharging of diesel engines has led to increase in temperature, load and corrosive attack of plain bearings. To meet these requirements, overlay plated aluminium alloys are now preferred. Currently, lead-tin alloys are deposited using a zincate layer and nickel strike, as intermediate stages in the process. The nickel has undesirable seizure characteristics and the zincate can given rise to corrosion problems. Consequently, brush plating allows the possible elimination of these stages and a decrease in process together with greater automation. The effect of mode application, on the formation of zincate films, using film growth weight measurements, potential-time studies, peel adhesion testing and Scanning Electron Microscopy was studied, for both SIC and AS15 aluminium alloys. The direct plating of aluminium was also successfully achieved. The results obtained indicate that generally, although lower adhesion resulted when a brush technique was used, satisfactory adhesion for fatigue testing was achieved. Both lead-tin and tin-cobalt overlays were examined and a study of the parameters governing brush plating were carried out using various electrolytes. An experimentally developed small scale rig, was used to produce overlay plated bearings that were fatigue tested until failure. The bearings were then examined and an analysis of the failure mechanisms undertaken. The results indicated that both alloy systems are of the regular codeposition type. Tin-cobalt overlays were superior to conventional lead-tin overlays and remained in good condition, although the lining (substrate) failed. Brush plated lead-tin was unsatisfactory. Sufficient understanding has now been gained, to enable a larger scale automated plant to be produced. This will allow a further study of the technique to be carried out, on equipment that more closely resembles that of a full scale production process.

Elastic-plastic analysis of complete building structures

In this Thesis, details of a proposed method for the elastic-plastic failure load analysis of complete building structures are given. In order to handle the problem, a computer programme in Atlas Autocode is produced. The structures consist of a number of parallel shear walls and intermediate frames connected by floor slabs. The results of an experimental investigation are given to verify the theoretical results and to demonstrate various factors that may influence the behaviour of these structures. Large full scale practical structures are also analysed by the proposed method and suggestions are made for achieving design economy as well as for extending research in various aspects of this field. The existing programme for elastic-plastic analysis of large frames is modified to allow for the effect of composite action of structural members, i.e. reinforced concrete floor slabs and the supporting steel beams. This modified programme is used to analyse some framed type structures with composite action as well as those which incorporate plates and shear walls. The results obtained are studied to ascertain the influence of composite action and other factors on the load carrying capacity of both bare frames and complete building structures. The theoretical failure load presented in this thesis does not predict the overall failure load of the structure nor does it predict the partial failure load of the shear walls and slabs but it merely predicts the partial failure load of a single frame and assumes that the loss of stiffess of such a frame renders the overall structure unusable. For most structures the analysis proposed in this thesis is likely to break down prematurely due to the failure of the slab and shear wall system and this factor must be taken into account in any future work on such structures. The experimental work reported in this thesis is acknowledged to be unsatisfactory as a verification of the limited theory proposed. In particular perspex was not found to be a suitable material for testing at high loads, micro-concrete may be more suitable.

Modelling of wastewater treatment plants:how far shall we go with sophisticated modelling tools?

Several levels of complexity are available for modelling of wastewater treatment plants. Modelling local effects rely on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches whereas activated sludge models (ASM) represent the global methodology. By applying both modelling approaches to pilot plant and full scale systems, this paper evaluates the value of each method and especially their potential combination. Model structure identification for ASM is discussed based on a full-scale closed loop oxidation ditch modelling. It is illustrated how and for what circumstances information obtained via CFD (computational fluid dynamics) analysis, residence time distribution (RTD) and other experimental means can be used. Furthermore, CFD analysis of the multiphase flow mechanisms is employed to obtain a correct description of the oxygenation capacity of the system studied, including an easy implementation of this information in the classical ASM modelling (e.g. oxygen transfer). The combination of CFD and activated sludge modelling of wastewater treatment processes is applied to three reactor configurations, a perfectly mixed reactor, a pilot scale activated sludge basin (ASB) and a real scale ASB. The application of the biological models to the CFD model is validated against experimentation for the pilot scale ASB and against a classical global ASM model response. A first step in the evaluation of the potential of the combined CFD-ASM model is performed using a full scale oxidation ditch system as testing scenario.

A new paradigm in large-scale assembly-research priorities in measurement assisted assembly

This paper presents for the first time the concept of measurement assisted assembly (MAA) and outlines the research priorities of the realisation of this concept in the industry. MAA denotes a paradigm shift in assembly for high value and complex products and encompasses the development and use of novel metrology processes for the holistic integration and capability enhancement of key assembly and ancillary processes. A complete framework for MAA is detailed showing how this can facilitate a step change in assembly process capability and efficiency for large and complex products, such as airframes, where traditional assembly processes exhibit the requirement for rectification and rework, use inflexible tooling and are largely manual, resulting in cost and cycle time pressures. The concept of MAA encompasses a range of innovativemeasurement- assisted processes which enable rapid partto- part assembly, increased use of flexible automation, traceable quality assurance and control, reduced structure weight and improved levels of precision across the dimensional scales. A full scale industrial trial of MAA technologies has been carried out on an experimental aircraft wing demonstrating the viability of the approach while studies within 140 smaller companies have highlighted the need for better adoption of existing process capability and quality control standards. The identified research priorities for MAA include the development of both frameless and tooling embedded automated metrology networks. Other research priorities relate to the development of integrated dimensional variation management, thermal compensation algorithms as well as measurement planning and inspection of algorithms linking design to measurement and process planning. © Springer-Verlag London 2013.

The Kim Dynasty and North-East Asian security:breaking the cycle of crises?

Purpose—This article considers North Korea and the notion of crisis, by linking historical development over the Korean peninsula to the conflict resolution literature, and investigates why despite a large number of destabilizing events, a war involving Pyongyang has yet to erupt. Design/methodology—This article uses historical data and a framework developed by Aggarwal et al., in order to highlight patterns of interaction between states such as the United States, North Korea and South Korea, organizations such as the United Nations, as well as processes such as the Six- Party Talks and the Agreed Framework. The article then develops a crisis framework based on conflict resolution and negotiation literature, and applies it to three North Korean administrations. Findings—Findings suggest that an open- ended understanding of time (for all parties involved on the peninsula) leads to an impossibility to reach a threshold where full- scale war would be triggered, thus leaving parties in a stable state of crisis for which escalating moves and de- escalating techniques might become irrelevant. Practical implications—It is hoped that this article will help further endeavors linking conflict resolution theoretical frameworks to the Korean peninsula security situation. In the case of the Korean peninsula, time has been understood as open-ended, leading parties to a lingering state of heightened hostilities that oscillates toward war, but that is controlled enough not to reach it. In-depth analysis of particular security sectors such as nuclear energy, food security, or missile testing would prove particularly useful in understanding the complexity of the Korean peninsula situation to a greater extent. It is hoped that this paper will help further endeavours linking conflict resolution theoretical frameworks to the Korean peninsula security situation. Originality/value—This research suggests that regarding the Korean peninsula, time has been understood as open- ended, leading parties to a lingering state of heightened.

Biochemical correlates of cognition: exploring the relationships between blood, brain and behaviour

This multi-modal investigation aimed to refine analytic tools including proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) and fatty acid gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis, for use with adult and paediatric populations, to investigate potential biochemical underpinnings of cognition (Chapter 1). Essential fatty acids (EFAs) are vital for the normal development and function of neural cells. There is increasing evidence of behavioural impairments arising from dietary deprivation of EFAs and their long-chain fatty acid metabolites (Chapter 2). Paediatric liver disease was used as a deficiency model to examine the relationships between EFA status and cognitive outcomes. Age-appropriate Wechsler assessments measured Full-scale IQ (FSIQ) and Information Processing Speed (IPS) in clinical and healthy cohorts; GC-MS quantified surrogate markers of EFA status in erythrocyte membranes; and 1H-MRS quantified neurometabolite markers of neuronal viability and function in cortical tissue (Chapter 3). Post-transplant children with early-onset liver disease demonstrated specific deficits in IPS compared to age-matched acute liver failure transplant patients and sibling controls, suggesting that the time-course of the illness is a key factor (Chapter 4). No signs of EFA deficiency were observed in the clinical cohort, suggesting that EFA metabolism was not significantly impacted by liver disease. A strong, negative correlation was observed between omega-6 fatty acids and FSIQ, independent of disease diagnosis (Chapter 5). In a study of healthy adults, effect sizes for the relationship between 1H-MRS- detectable neurometabolites and cognition fell within the range of previous work, but were not statistically significant. Based on these findings, recommendations are made emphasising the need for hypothesis-driven enquiry and greater subtlety of data analysis (Chapter 6). Consistency of metabolite values between paediatric clinical cohorts and controls indicate normal neurodevelopment, but the lack of normative, age-matched data makes it difficult to assess the true strength of liver disease-associated metabolite changes (Chapter 7). Converging methods offer a challenging but promising and novel approach to exploring brain-behaviour relationships from micro- to macroscopic levels of analysis (Chapter 8).

Chemical kinetic investigation of a commercial batch reactor process

The aim of this investigation was to study the chemical reactions occurring during the batchwise production of a butylated melamine-formaldehyde resin, in order to optimise the efficiency and economics of the batch processes. The batch process models are largely empirical in nature as the reaction mechanism is unknown. The process chemistry and the commercial manufacturing method are described. A small scale system was established in glass and the ability to produce laboratory resins with the required quality was demonstrated, simulating the full scale plant. During further experiments the chemical reactions of methylolation, condensation and butylation were studied. The important process stages were identified and studied separately. The effects of variation of certain process parameters on the chemical reactions were also studied. A published model of methylolation was modified and used to simulate the methylolation stage. A major result of this project was the development of an indirect method for studying the condensation and butylation reactions occurring during the dehydration and acid reaction stages, as direct quantitative methods were not available. A mass balance method was devised for this purpose and used to collect experimental data. The reaction scheme was verified using this data. The reactions stages were simulated using an empirical model. This has revealed new information regarding the mechanism and kinetics of the reactions. Laboratory results were shown to be comparable with plant scale results. This work has improved the understanding of the batch process, which can be used to improve product consistency. Future work has been identified and recommended to produce an optimum process and plant design to reduce the batch time.

Solvent extraction of phosphoric acid

This work investigated the purification of phosphoric acid using a suitable organic solvent, followed by re-extraction of the acid from the solvent using water. The work consisted of practical batch and continuous studies and the economics and design of a full scale plant, based on the experimental data. A comprehensive literature survey on the purification of wet process phosphoric acid by organic solvents is presented and the literature describing the design and operation of mixer-settlers has also been reviewed. In batch studies, the equilibrium and distribution curves for the systems water-phosphoric acid-solvent for Benzaldehyde, Cyclohexanol and Methylisobutylketone (MIBK) were determined together with hydrodynamic characteristics for both pure and impure systems. The settling time increased with acid concentration, but power input had no effect. Drop size was found to reduce with acid concentration and power input. For the continuous studies a novel horizontal mixer~settler cascade was designed, constructed and operated using pure and impure acid with MIBK as the solvent. The cascade incorporates three air turbine agitated, cylindrical 900 ml mixers, and three cylindrical 200 ml settlers with air-lift solvent interstage transfer. Mean drop size in the fully baffled mixer was correlated. Drop size distributions were log-normal and size decreased with acid concentration and power input and increased with dispersed phase hold-up. Phase inversion studies showed that the width of the ambivalent region depended upon rotor speed, hold-up and acid concentration. Settler characteristics were investigated by measuring wedge length. Distribution coefficients of impurities and acid were also investigated. The following optimum extraction conditions were found: initial acid concentration 63%, phase ratio of solvent to acid 1:1 (v/v), impeller speed recommended 900 r.p.m. In the washing step the maximum phase ratio of solvent to water was 8:1 (v/v). Work on phosphoric acid concentration involved constructing distillation equipment consisting of a 10& spherical still. A 100 T/d scale detailed process design including capital cost, operating cost and profitability was also completed. A profit model for phosphoric acid extraction was developed and maximised. Recommendations are made for both the application of the results to a practical design and for extensions of the study.

Spray drier simulation and air flow pattern studies

The literature pertaining to the key stages of spray drying has been reviewed in the context of the mathematical modelling of drier performance. A critical review is also presented of previous spray drying models. A new mathematical model has been developed for prediction of spray drier performance. This is applicable to slurries of rigid, porous crust-forming materials to predict trajectories and drying profiles for droplets with a distribution of sizes sprayed from a centrifugal pressure nozzle. The model has been validated by comparing model predictions to experimental data from a pilot-scale counter-current drier and from a full-scale co-current drier. For the latter, the computed product moisture content was within 2%, and the computed air exit temperature within 10oC of experimental data. Air flow patterns have been investigated in a 1.2m diameter transparent countercurrent spray tower by flow visualisation. Smoke was introduced into various zones within the tower to trace the direction, and gauge the intensity, of the air flow. By means of a set of variable-angle air inlet nozzles, a variety of air entry configurations was investigated. The existence of a core of high rotational and axial velocity channelling up the axis of the tower was confirmed. The stability of flow within the core was found to be strongly dependent upon the air entry arrangement. A probe was developed for the measurement of air temperature and humidity profiles. This was employed for studying evaporation of pure water drops in a 1.2m diameter pilot-scale counter-current drier. A rapid approach to the exit air properties was detected within a 1m distance from the air entry ports. Measured radial profiles were found to be virtually flat but, from the axial profiles, the existence of plug-flow, well-mixed-flow and some degree of air short-circuiting can be inferred. The model and conclusions should assist in the improved design and optimum operation of industrial spray driers.

The microbiological destruction of thiocyanate in activated sludge plants treating coke oven effluent

The treatment of effluents produced during the manufacture of metallurgical coke is normally carried out using the activated sludge process. The efficiency of activated sludges in purifying coke oven effluent depends largely on the maintenance of species of micro-organisms which destroy thiocyanate. The composition, production, toxicity and treatment of coke oven effluent at Corby steelworks are described. A review is presented which follows the progress made towards identifying and monitoring the species of bacteria which destroy thiocyanate in biological treatment plants purifying coke oven effluents. In the present study a search for bacteria capable of destroying thiocyanate led to the isolation of a species of bacteria, identified as Pseudomonas putida, which destroyed thiocyanate in the presence of succinate; this species had not previously been reported to use thiocyanate. Washed cell suspensions of P. putida destroyed phenol and thiocyanate simultaneously and thiocyanate destruction was not suppressed by pyridine, aniline or catechol at the highest concentrations normally encountered in coke oven effluent. The isolate has been included, as N.C.I.B. 11198, in the National Collection of Industrial Bacteria, Torrey Research Station, Aberdeen. Three other isolates, identified as Achromobacter sp., Thiobacillus thioparus and T. denitrificans, were also confirmed to destroy thi.ocyanate. A technique has been developed for monitoring populations of different species of bacteria in activated sludges. Application of this technique to laboratory scale and full scale treatment plants at Corby showed that thiobacilli were usually not detected; thiobacilli were el~inated during the commissioning period of the full scale plant. However experiments using a laboratory scale plant indicated that during a period of three weeks an increase in the numbers of thiobacilli might have contributed to an improvement in plant performance. Factors which might have facilitated the development of thiobacilli are discussed. Large numbers of fluorescent pseudomonads capable of using thiocyanate were sometimes detected in the laboratory scale plant. The possibility is considered that catechol or other organic compounds in the feed-liquor might have stimulated fluorescent pseudmonads. Experiments using the laboratory scale plant confirmed that deteriorations in the efficiency of thiocyanate destruction were sometimes caused by bulking sludges, due to the excessive growth of fungal floes. Increased dilution of the coke oven effluent was a successful remedy to this difficulty. The optimum operating conditions recommended by the manufacturer of the full scale activated sludge plant at Corby are assessed and the role of bacterial monitoring in a programme of regular monitoring tests is discussed in relation to the operation of activated sludge plants treating coke oven effluents.