Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Computer-assisted production scheduling, planning and control in foundries

The present study describes a pragmatic approach to the implementation of production planning and scheduling techniques in foundries of all types and looks at the use of `state-of-the-art' management control and information systems. Following a review of systems for the classification of manufacturing companies, a definitive statement is made which highlights the important differences between foundries (i.e. `component makers') and other manufacturing companies (i.e. `component buyers'). An investigation of the manual procedures which are used to plan and control the manufacture of components reveals the inherent problems facing foundry production management staff, which suggests the unsuitability of many manufacturing techniques which have been applied to general engineering companies. From the literature it was discovered that computer-assisted systems are required which are primarily `information-based' rather than `decision based', whilst the availability of low-cost computers and `packaged-software' has enabled foundries to `get their feet wet' without the financial penalties which characterized many of the early attempts at computer-assistance (i.e. pre-1980). Moreover, no evidence of a single methodology for foundry scheduling emerged from the review. A philosophy for the development of a CAPM system is presented, which details the essential information requirements and puts forward proposals for the subsequent interactions between types of information and the sub-system of CAPM which they support. The work developed was oriented specifically at the functions of production planning and scheduling and introduces the concept of `manual interaction' for effective scheduling. The techniques developed were designed to use the information which is readily available in foundries and were found to be practically successful following the implementation of the techniques into a wide variety of foundries. The limitations of the techniques developed are subsequently discussed within the wider issues which form a CAPM system, prior to a presentation of the conclusions which can be drawn from the study.

The implications of cost behaviour for profit planning and control

The work described in the following pages was carried out at various sites in the Rod Division of the Delta Metal Company. Extensive variation in the level of activity in the industry during the years 1974 to I975 had led to certain inadequacies being observed 1n the traditional cost control procedure. In an attempt to remedy this situation it was suggested that a method be found of constructing a system to improve the flexibility of cost control procedures. The work involved an assimilation of the industrial and financial environment via pilot studies which would later prove invaluable to home in on the really interesting and important areas. Weaknesses in the current systems which came to light made the methodology of data collection and the improvement of cost control and profit planning procedures easier to adopt. Because of the requirements of the project to investigate the implications of Cost behaviour for profit planning and control, the next stage of the research work was to utilise the on-site experience to examine at a detailed level the nature of cost behaviour. The analysis of factory costs then showed that certain costs, which were the most significant exhibited a stable relationship with respect to some known variable, usually a specific measure of Output. These costs were then formulated in a cost model, to establish accurate standards in a complex industrial setting in order to provide a meaningful comparison against which to judge actual performance. The necessity of a cost model was •reinforced by the fact that the cost behaviour found to exist was, in the main, a step function, and this complex cost behaviour, the traditional cost and profit planning procedures could not possibly incorporate. Already implemented from this work is the establishment of the post of information officer to co-ordinate data collection and information provision.

The role of accounting in planning and control: with special reference to the Egyptian iron and steel company Hadisolb

This thesis investigates the role of accounting in planning and control in the Egyptian Iron and Steel Company "Hadisolb". The hypothesis is that there should be planning and control at appropriate levels, with a significant accounting involvement, In an organisation such as the Egyptian Iron and Steel Company "Hadisolb" . Part One of the thesis explains the role of accounting in planning and control, with special emphasis on its role in long-range corporate planning and control. Parts Two and Three review the history of the Egyptian Iron and Steel Company "Hadisolb", its organisation and structure, also the role of accounting in its planning and control arrangements, together with comments and criticisms concerning this. Part Four is mainly recommendations for alterations or improvements in planning and control in Hadisolb. This includes a suggested planning and organisation structure, physical and cost control reporting structures.

An approach to the development of expert systems within production planning and control

The thesis presents an account of an attempt to utilize expert systems within the domain of production planning and control. The use of expert systems was proposed due to the problematical nature of a particular function within British Steel Strip Products' Operations Department: the function of Order Allocation, allocating customer orders to a production week and site. Approaches to tackling problems within production planning and control are reviewed, as are the general capabilities of expert systems. The conclusions drawn are that the domain of production planning and control contains both `soft' and `hard' problems, and that while expert systems appear to be a useful technology for this domain, this usefulness has by no means yet been demonstrated. Also, it is argued that the main stream methodology for developing expert systems is unsuited for the domain. A problem-driven approach is developed and used to tackle the Order Allocation function. The resulting system, UAAMS, contained two expert components. One of these, the scheduling procedure was not fully implemented due to inadequate software. The second expert component, the product routing procedure, was untroubled by such difficulties, though it was unusable on its own; thus a second system was developed. This system, MICRO-X10, duplicated the function of X10, a complex database query routine used daily by Order Allocation. A prototype version of MICRO-X10 proved too slow to be useful but allowed implementation and maintenance issues to be analysed. In conclusion, the usefulness of the problem-driven approach to expert systems development within production planning and control is demonstrated but restrictions imposed by current expert system software are highlighted in that the abilities of such software to cope with `hard' scheduling constructs and also the slow processing speeds of such software can restrict the current usefulness of expert systems within production planning and control.

Modelling manufacturing planning and control systems:the application of object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation

Manufacturing planning and control systems are fundamental to the successful operations of a manufacturing organisation. 10 order to improve their business performance, significant investment is made by companies into planning and control systems; however, not all companies realise the benefits sought Many companies continue to suffer from high levels of inventory, shortages, obsolete parts, poor resource utilisation and poor delivery performance. This thesis argues that the fit between the planning and control system and the manufacturing organisation is a crucial element of success. The design of appropriate control systems is, therefore, important. The different approaches to the design of manufacturing planning and control systems are investigated. It is concluded that there is no provision within these design methodologies to properly assess the impact of a proposed design on the manufacturing facility. Consequently, an understanding of how a new (or modified) planning and control system will perform in the context of the complete manufacturing system is unlikely to be gained until after the system has been implemented and is running. There are many modelling techniques available, however discrete-event simulation is unique in its ability to model the complex dynamics inherent in manufacturing systems, of which the planning and control system is an integral component. The existing application of simulation to manufacturing control system issues is limited: although operational issues are addressed, application to the more fundamental design of control systems is rarely, if at all, considered. The lack of a suitable simulation-based modelling tool does not help matters. The requirements of a simulation tool capable of modelling a host of different planning and control systems is presented. It is argued that only through the application of object-oriented principles can these extensive requirements be achieved. This thesis reports on the development of an extensible class library called WBS/Control, which is based on object-oriented principles and discrete-event simulation. The functionality, both current and future, offered by WBS/Control means that different planning and control systems can be modelled: not only the more standard implementations but also hybrid systems and new designs. The flexibility implicit in the development of WBS/Control supports its application to design and operational issues. WBS/Control wholly integrates with an existing manufacturing simulator to provide a more complete modelling environment.

Manufacturing capacity planning and control

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Stability indicators, a tool for organizational planning and control

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Financial planning and project cost control techniques applied to building management

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Strategy and control systems:a framework for analysis

This research explores the links between the strategies adopted by companies and the mechanisms used to control the organisation. This is not seen as a one way process with the control system following from the strategy but rather as an interactive process between the control systems, the environment and the business strategy. The main proposition of the research, derived from a review of the relevant literature, is that the dimensions of Business Pro-Activity and Environmental Change provide a plausible explanation of the reasons why companies need to adopt different strategies in order to be successful in different markets. A model is proposed which links these dimensions with the business strategy, organisational structure, strategic planning system and management control systems. The model is used as a framework for analysing four companies in order to further our understanding of these interactions and the mechanisms which act to both promote and resist change. Whilst it is not suggested that the model in its present form is a perfect instrument it has, during the course of this research, proved to be an appropriate framework for analysing the various mechanisms used by four companies to formulate and implement their strategies. The research reveals that these should not be viewed independently but as a balanced system.

Aspects of the design and operation of production control systems in manufacturing industry

Computerised production control developments have concentrated on Manufacturing Resources Planning (MRP II) systems. The literature suggests however, that despite the massive investment in hardware, software and management education, successful implementation of such systems in manufacturing industries has proved difficult. This thesis reviews the development of production planning and control systems, in particular, investigates the causes of failures in implementing MRP/MRP II systems in industrial environments and argues that the centralised and top-down planning structure, as well as the routine operational methodology of such systems, is inherently prone to failure. The thesis reviews the control benefits of cellular manufacturing systems but concludes that in more dynamic manufacturing environments, techniques such as Kanban are inappropriate. The basic shortcomings of MRP II systems are highlighted and a new enhanced operational methodology based on distributed planning and control principles is introduced. Distributed Manufacturing Resources Planning (DMRP), was developed as a capacity sensitive production planning and control solution for cellular manufacturing environments. The system utilises cell based, independently operated MRP II systems, integrated into a plant-wide control system through a Local Area Network. The potential benefits of adopting the system in industrial environments is discussed and the results of computer simulation experiments to compare the performance of the DMRP system against the conventional MRP II systems presented. DMRP methodology is shown to offer significant potential advantages which include ease of implementation, cost effectiveness, capacity sensitivity, shorter manufacturing lead times, lower working in progress levels and improved customer service.

Cost effectiveness of production control systems

This thesis deals with the problems associated with the planning and control of production, with particular reference to a small aluminium die casting company. The main problem areas were identified as: (a) A need to be able to forecast the customers demands upon the company's facilities. (b) A need to produce a manufacturing programme in which the output of the foundry (or die casting section) was balanced with the available capacity in the machine shop. (c) The need to ensure that the resultant system enabled the company's operating budget to have a reasonable chance of being achieved. At the commencement of the research work the major customers were members of the automobile industry and had their own system of forecasting, from which they issued manufacturing schedules to their component suppliers, The errors in the forecast were analysed and the distributions noted. Using these distributions the customer's forecast was capable of being modified to enable his final demand to be met with a known degree of confidence. Before a manufacturing programme could be developed the actual manufacturing system had to be reviewed and it was found that as with many small companies there was a remarkable lack of formal control and written data. Relevant data with regards to the component and the manufacturing process had therefore to be collected and analysed. The foundry process was fixed but the secondary machining operations were analysed by a technique similar to Component Flow Analysis and as a result the machines were arranged in a series of flow lines. A system of manual production control was proposed and for comparison, a local computer bureau was approached and a system proposed incorporating the production of additional management information. These systems are compared and the relative merits discussed and a proposal made for implementation.

A dynamic feature information model for integrated manufacturing planning and optimization

This paper presents a new, dynamic feature representation method for high value parts consisting of complex and intersecting features. The method first extracts features from the CAD model of a complex part. Then the dynamic status of each feature is established between various operations to be carried out during the whole manufacturing process. Each manufacturing and verification operation can be planned and optimized using the real conditions of a feature, thus enhancing accuracy, traceability and process control. The dynamic feature representation is complementary to the design models used as underlining basis in current CAD/CAM and decision support systems. © 2012 CIRP.