Predicting returns in U.S. financial sector indices

This study focuses on: (i) the responsiveness of the U.S. financial sector stock indices to foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes; and, (ii) the extent to which good model specification can enhance the forecasts from the associated models. Three models are considered. Only the error-correction model (ECM) generated efficient and consistent coefficient estimates. Furthermore, a simple zero lag model in differences which is clearly mis-specified, generated forecasts that are better than those of the ECM, even if the ECM depicts relationships that are more consistent with economic theory. In brief, FX and interest rate changes do not impact on the return-generating process of the stock indices in any substantial way. Most of the variation in the sector stock indices is associated with past variation in the indices themselves and variation in the market-wide stock index. These results have important implications for financial and economic policies.

The sensitivity of US banks' stock returns to interest and exchange rate changes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on US banks’ stock returns. Design/methodology/approach – The approach employs an EGARCH model to account for the ARCH effects in daily returns. Most prior studies have used standard OLS estimation methods with the result that the presence of ARCH effects would have affected estimation efficiency. For comparative purposes, the standard OLS estimation method is also used to measure sensitivity. Findings – The findings are as follows: under the conditional t-distributional assumption, the EGARCH model generated a much better fit to the data although the goodness-of-fit of the model is not entirely satisfactory; the market index return accounts for most of the variation in stock returns at both the individual bank and portfolio levels; and the degree of sensitivity of the stock returns to interest rate and FX rate changes is not very pronounced despite the use of high frequency data. Earlier results had indicated that daily data provided greater evidence of exposure sensitivity. Practical implications – Assuming that banks do not hedge perfectly, these findings have important financial implications as they suggest that the hedging policies of the banks are not reflected in their stock prices. Alternatively, it is possible that different GARCH-type models might be more appropriate when modelling high frequency returns. Originality/value – The paper contributes to existing knowledge in the area by showing that ARCH effects do impact on measures of sensitivity.

Evaluating the impact of design decisions on the financial performance of manufacturing companies

Product design decisions can have a significant impact on the financial and operation performance of manufacturing companies. Therefore good analysis of the financial impact of design decisions is required if the profitability of the business is to be maximised. The product design process can be viewed as a chain of decisions which links decisions about the concept to decisions about the detail. The idea of decision chains can be extended to include the design and operation of the 'downstream' business processes which manufacture and support the product. These chains of decisions are not independent but are interrelated in a complex manner. To deal with the interdependencies requires a modelling approach which represents all the chains of decisions, to a level of detail not normally considered in the analysis of product design. The operational, control and financial elements of a manufacturing business constitute a dynamic system. These elements interact with each other and with external elements (i.e. customers and suppliers). Analysing the chain of decisions for such an environment requires the application of simulation techniques, not just to any one area of interest, but to the whole business i.e. an enterprise simulation. To investigate the capability and viability of enterprise simulation an experimental 'Whole Business Simulation' system has been developed. This system combines specialist simulation elements and standard operational applications software packages, to create a model that incorporates all the key elements of a manufacturing business, including its customers and suppliers. By means of a series of experiments, the performance of this system was compared with a range of existing analysis tools (i.e. DFX, capacity calculation, shop floor simulator, and business planner driven by a shop floor simulator).

Systematic financial resources allocation processes:a model for critical resources mobilization and deployment for nigerian universities

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to study the perceived impact of some factors on the resources allocation processes of the Nigerian universities and to suggest a framework that will help practitioners and academics to understand and improve such processes. Design/methodology/approach – The study adopted the interpretive qualitative approach aimed at an ‘in-depth’ understanding of the resource allocation experiences of key university personnel and their perceived impact of the contextual factors affecting such processes. The analysis of individual narratives from each university established the conditions and factors impacting the resources allocation processes within each institution. Findings – The resources allocation process issues in the Nigerian universities may be categorised into people (core and peripheral units’ challenge, and politics and power); process (resources allocation processes); and resources (critical financial shortage and resources dependence response). The study also provides insight that resourcing efficiency in Nigerian universities appears strongly constrained by the rivalry among the resource managers. The efficient resources allocation process (ERAP) model is proposed to resolve the identified resourcing deficiencies. Research limitations/implications – The research is not focused to provide generalizable observations but ‘in-depth’ perceived factors and their impact on the resources allocation processes in Nigerian universities. The study is limited to the internal resources allocation issues within the universities and excludes the external funding factors. The resource managers’ responses to the identified factors may affect their internal resourcing efficiency. Further research using more empirical samples is required to obtain more widespread results and the implications for all universities. Originality/value – This study contributes a fresh literature framework to resources allocation processes focusing at ‘people’, ‘process’ and ‘resources’. Also a middle range theory triangulation is developed in relation to better understanding of resourcing process management. The study will be of interest to university managers and policy makers.

Short-horizon excess returns and exchange rate and interest rate effects

stocks. We examine the effects of foreign exchange (FX) and interest rate changes on the excess returns of U.S. stocks, for short-horizons of 1-40 days. Our new evidence shows a tendency for the volatility of both excess returns and FX rate changes to be negatively related with FX rate and interest rate effects. Both the number of firms with significant FX rate and interest rate effects and the magnitude of their exposures increase with the length of the return horizon. Our finding seems inconsistent with the view that firms hedge effectively at short-return horizons.

Modelling stock volatilities during financial crises:a time varying coefficient approach

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two decades in the volatility dynamics, including the underlying volatility persistence and volatility spillover structure. Using daily data from several key stock market indices, the results of our bivariate GARCH models show the existence of time varying correlations as well as time varying shock and volatility spillovers between the returns of FTSE and DAX, and those of NIKKEI and Hang Seng, which became more prominent during the recent financial crisis. Our theoretical considerations on the time varying model which provides the platform upon which we integrate our multifaceted empirical approaches are also of independent interest. In particular, we provide the general solution for time varying asymmetric GARCH specifications, which is a long standing research topic. This enables us to characterize these models by deriving, first, their multistep ahead predictors, second, the first two time varying unconditional moments, and third, their covariance structure.