Selection and application of risk management tools and techniques for build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. However, the characteristics of the risk highly depend on the type of procurement being adopted for managing the project. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognized as one of the most risky project schemes. There are instances of project failure where a BOT scheme was employed. Ineffective rts are increasingly being managed using various risk management tools and techniques. However, application of those tools depends on the nature of the project, organization's policy, project management strategy, risk attitude of the project team members, and availability of the resources. Understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of risk management tools and techniques, helps select processes of risk management for effective project implementation in a BOT scheme. This paper studies application of risk management tools and techniques in BOT projects through reviews of relevant literatures and develops a model for selecting risk management process for BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks. This study would contribute to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation tools in general practice: cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of using different risk calculation tools on how general practitioners and practice nurses evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with clinical data routinely available in patients' records. DESIGN: Subjective estimates of the risk of coronary heart disease and results of four different methods of calculation of risk were compared with each other and a reference standard that had been calculated with the Framingham equation; calculations were based on a sample of patients' records, randomly selected from groups at risk of coronary heart disease. SETTING: General practices in central England. PARTICIPANTS: 18 general practitioners and 18 practice nurses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Agreement of results of risk estimation and risk calculation with reference calculation; agreement of general practitioners with practice nurses; sensitivity and specificity of the different methods of risk calculation to detect patients at high or low risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Only a minority of patients' records contained all of the risk factors required for the formal calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease (concentrations of high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were present in only 21%). Agreement of risk calculations with the reference standard was moderate (kappa=0.33-0.65 for practice nurses and 0.33 to 0.65 for general practitioners, depending on calculation tool), showing a trend for underestimation of risk. Moderate agreement was seen between the risks calculated by general practitioners and practice nurses for the same patients (kappa=0.47 to 0.58). The British charts gave the most sensitive results for risk of coronary heart disease (practice nurses 79%, general practitioners 80%), and it also gave the most specific results for practice nurses (100%), whereas the Sheffield table was the most specific method for general practitioners (89%). CONCLUSIONS: Routine calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease in primary care is hampered by poor availability of data on risk factors. General practitioners and practice nurses are able to evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with only moderate accuracy. Data about risk factors need to be collected systematically, to allow the use of the most appropriate calculation tools.

Real options and multinational investments : an empirical study of risk, performance and organisational awareness

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT This thesis is a cross-disciplinary study of the empirical impact of real options theory in the fields of decision sciences and performance management. Borrowing from the economics, strategy and operations research literature, the research examines the risk and performance implications of real options in firms’ strategic investments and multinational operations. An emphasis is placed on the flexibility potential and competitive advantage of multinational corporations to explore the extent to which real options analysis can be classified as best practice in management research. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques the evidence suggests that, if real options are explored and exploited appropriately, real options management can result in superior performance for multinational companies. The qualitative findings give an overview of the practical advantages and disadvantages of real options and the statistical results reveal that firms which have developed a high awareness of their real options are, as predicted by the theory, able to reduce their downside risk and increase profits through flexibility, organisational slack and multinationality. Although real options awareness does not systematically guarantee higher returns from operations, supplementary findings indicate that firms with evidence of significant investments in the acquisition of real options knowledge tend to outperform competitors which are unaware of their real options. There are three contributions of this research. First, it extends the real options and capacity planning literature to path-dependent contingent-claims analysis to underline the benefits of average type options in capacity allocation. Second, it is thought to be the first to explicitly examine the performance effects of real options on a sample of firms which have developed partial capabilities in real options analysis suggesting that real options diffusion can be key to value creation. Third, it builds a new decision-aiding framework to facilitate the use of real options in projects appraisal and strategic planning.

Families 'at risk' and the family nurse partnership:the intrusion of risk into social exclusion policy

This article considers why the family nurse partnership (FNP) has been promoted as a means of tackling social exclusion in the UK. The FNP consists in a programme of visits by nurses to low-income first-time mothers, both while the mothers are pregnant and for the first two years following birth. The FNP is focused on both teaching parenthood and encouraging mothers back into education and/or into employment. Although the FNP marks a considerable discontinuity with previous approaches to family health, it is congruent with an emerging new approach to social exclusion. This new approach maintains that the most important task of social policy is to identify quickly the most 'at-risk' households, individuals and children so that interventions can be targeted more effectively at those 'at risk', either to themselves or to others. The article illustrates this new approach by analysing a succession of reports by the Social Exclusion Unit. It indicates that there is a considerable amount of ambiguity about the relationship between specific risk-factors and being 'at risk of social exclusion'. Nonetheless, this new approach helps to explain why British policy-makers may have chosen to promote the new FNP now. © 2009 Cambridge University Press.

The derivation and application of risk tolerability criteria

This research involves a study of the questions, "what is considered safe", how are safety levels defined or decided, and according to whom. Tolerable or acceptable risk questions raise various issues: about values and assumptions inherent in such levels; about decision-making frameworks at the highest level of policy making as well as on the individual level; and about the suitability and competency of decision-makers to decide and to communicate their decisions. The wide-ranging topics covering philosophical and practical concerns examined in the literature review reveal the multi-disciplined scope of this research. To support this theoretical study empirical research was undertaken at the European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC) of the European Space Agency (ESA). ESTEC is a large, multi-nationality, high technology organisation which presented an ideal case study for exploring how decisions are made with respect to safety from a personal as well as organisational aspect. A qualitative methodology was employed to gather, analyse and report the findings of this research. Significant findings reveal how experts perceive risks and the prevalence of informal decision-making processes partly due to the inadequacy of formal methods for deciding risk tolerability. In the field of occupational health and safety, this research has highlighted the importance and need for criteria to decide whether a risk is great enough to warrant attention in setting standards and priorities for risk control and resources. From a wider perspective and with the recognition that risk is an inherent part of life, the establishment of tolerability risk levels can be viewed as cornerstones indicating our progress, expectations and values, of life and work, in an increasingly litigious, knowledgeable and global society.

The knowledge-based perspective of risk management in healthcare organisations

The aim of this research is to investigate how risk management in a healthcare organisation can be supported by knowledge management. The subject of research is the development and management of existing logs called "risk registers", through specific risk management processes employed in a N.H.S. (Foundation) Trust in England, in the U.K. Existing literature on organisational risk management stresses the importance of knowledge for the effective implementation of risk management programmes, claiming that knowledge used to perceive risk is biased by the beliefs of individuals and groups involved in risk management and therefore is considered incomplete. Further, literature on organisational knowledge management presents several definitions and categorisations of knowledge and approaches for knowledge manipulation in the organisational context as a whole. However, there is no specific approach regarding "how to deal" with knowledge in the course of organisational risk management. The research is based on a single case study, on a N.H.S. (Foundation) Trust, is influenced by principles of interpretivism and the frame of mind of Soft Systems Methodology (S.S.M.) to investigate the management of risk registers, from the viewpoint of people involved in the situation. Data revealed that knowledge about risks and about the existing risk management policy and procedures is situated in several locations in the Trust and is neither consolidated nor present where and when required. This study proposes a framework that identifies required knowledge for each of the risk management processes and outlines methods for conversion of this knowledge, based on the SECI knowledge conversion model, and activities to facilitate knowledge conversion so that knowledge is effectively used for the development of risk registers and the monitoring of risks throughout the whole Trust under study. This study has theoretical impact in the management science literature as it addresses the issue of incomplete knowledge raised in the risk management literature using concepts of the knowledge management literature, such as the knowledge conversion model. In essence, the combination of required risk and risk management related knowledge with the required type of communication for risk management creates the proposed methods for the support of each risk management process for the risk registers. Further, the indication of the importance of knowledge in risk management and the presentation of a framework that consolidates knowledge required for the risk management processes and proposes way(s) for the communication of this knowledge within a healthcare organisation have practical impact in the management of healthcare organisations.

Calendar effects and the pricing of risk:the UK evidence

For some time there has been a puzzle surrounding the seasonal behaviour of stock returns. This paper demonstrates that there is an asymmetric relationship between risk and return across the different months of the year. The paper finds that systematic risk is only priced during the months of January, April and July. Variance risk and firm size are priced during several months of the year including January. An analysis of the relative behaviour of size based securities reveals that firm capitalization makes a valuable contribution to the magnitude of risk premiums.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

Perception of risk, feelings of vulnerability and effects on driving behaviour in women drivers across the lifespan.

Sustained driving in older age has implications for quality of life and mental health. Studies have shown that despite the recognised importance of driving in maintaining health and social engagement, many women give up driving prematurely or adopt self-imposed restrictive driving practices. Emotional responses to driving have been implicated in these decisions. This research examined the effect of risk perception and feelings of vulnerability on women’s driving behaviour across the lifespan. It also developed and tested a modified theory of planned behaviour intervention to positively affect driving habits. The first two studies (N=395) used quantitative analysis to model driving behaviours affected by risk perception and feelings of vulnerability, and established that feelings of vulnerability do indeed affect women’s driving behaviour, specifically resulting in increases in driving avoidance and the adoption of maladaptive driving styles. Further, that self-regulation, conceptualised as avoidance, is used by drivers across the lifespan. Qualitative analysis of focus group data (N=48) in the third study provided a deeper understanding of the variations in coping behaviours adopted by sub-groups of drivers and extended the definition of self-regulation to incorporate adaptive coping strategies. The next study (N=64) reported the construction and preliminary validation of the novel self-regulation index (SRI) to measure wider self-regulation behaviours using an objective measure of driving behaviour, a simulated driving task. The understanding gained from the formative research was used in the final study, an extended theory of planned behaviour intervention to promote wider self-regulation behaviour, measured using the previously validated self-regulation index. The intervention achieved moderate success with changes in affective attitude and normative beliefs as well as self-reported behaviour. The results offer promise for self-regulation, incorporating a spectrum of planning and coping behaviours, to be used as a mechanism to assist drivers in achieving their personal mobility goals whilst promoting safe driving.

The role of risk assessment in supporting a positive organisational safety culture

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

A comparison of the local authority adoption of risk management in England and Australia

This paper analyses the context and use of risk management in local authorities in England and Australia. The basic structures of risk management were found to be common across all four local authorities in both countries. However, substantial differences were found in the national context in which risk management was used. The national context in each country was compared, and a large and small local authority in each country was used for illustrative purposes. The research findings were tested against institutional, contingency, resource dependence, and political perspectives. The research finding is that each theory was necessary but not sufficient and a pluralist approach was formulated to explain the similarities and differences in risk management in local authorities across two countries.

Private climate change reporting: an emerging discourse of risk and opportunity?

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the nature of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, which takes place in one-on-one meetings between institutional investors and their investee companies. Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from 20 UK investment institutions to derive data which was then coded and analysed, in order to derive a picture of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, using an interpretive methodological approach, in addition to explorative analysis using NVivo software. Findings – The authors find that private climate change reporting is dominated by a discourse of risk and risk management. This emerging risk discourse derives from institutional investors' belief that climate change represents a material risk, that it is the most salient sustainability issue, and that their clients require them to manage climate change-related risk within their portfolio investment. It is found that institutional investors are using the private reporting process to compensate for the acknowledged inadequacies of public climate change reporting. Contrary to evidence indicating corporate capture of public sustainability reporting, these findings suggest that the emerging private climate change reporting discourse is being captured by the institutional investment community. There is also evidence of an emerging discourse of opportunity in private climate change reporting as the institutional investors are increasingly aware of a range of ways in which climate change presents material opportunities for their investee companies to exploit. Lastly, the authors find an absence of any ethical discourse, such that private climate change reporting reinforces rather than challenges the “business case” status quo. Originality/value – Although there is a wealth of sustainability reporting research, there is no academic research on private climate change reporting. This paper attempts to fill this gap by providing rich interview evidence regarding the nature of the emerging private climate change reporting discourse.

The value of risk reporting:a critical analysis of value-at-risk disclosures in the banking sector

This paper critically reviews the evolution of financial reporting in the banking sector with specific reference to the reporting of market risk and the growing use of the measure known as Value at Risk (VaR). The paper investigates the process by which VaR became 'institutionalised'. The analysis highlights a number of inherent limitations of VaR as a risk measure and questions the usefulness of published VaR disclosures, concluding that risk 'disclosure' might be more apparent than real. It also looks at some of the implications for risk reporting practice and the accounting profession more generally.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.