The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Computer automation of land evaluation procedures

This study was concerned with the computer automation of land evaluation. This is a broad subject with many issues to be resolved, so the study concentrated on three key problems: knowledge based programming; the integration of spatial information from remote sensing and other sources; and the inclusion of socio-economic information into the land evaluation analysis. Land evaluation and land use planning were considered in the context of overseas projects in the developing world. Knowledge based systems were found to provide significant advantages over conventional programming techniques for some aspects of the land evaluation process. Declarative languages, in particular Prolog, were ideally suited to integration of social information which changes with every situation. Rule-based expert system shells were also found to be suitable for this role, including knowledge acquisition at the interview stage. All the expert system shells examined suffered from very limited constraints to problem size, but new products now overcome this. Inductive expert system shells were useful as a guide to knowledge gaps and possible relationships, but the number of examples required was unrealistic for typical land use planning situations. The accuracy of classified satellite imagery was significantly enhanced by integrating spatial information on soil distribution for Thailand data. Estimates of the rice producing area were substantially improved (30% change in area) by the addition of soil information. Image processing work on Mozambique showed that satellite remote sensing was a useful tool in stratifying vegetation cover at provincial level to identify key development areas, but its full utility could not be realised on typical planning projects, without treatment as part of a complete spatial information system.

Whole life performance bid evaluation in the Korean public sector

Korea has increasingly adopted design-build for public construction projects in the last few years. There is a much greater awareness of the need to change a system based on ‘Value for Money’ which is high on the government's agenda. A whole life performance bid evaluation model is proposed to aid decision makers in the selection of a design-builder. This is based on the integration of a framework using an analytic hierarchy process as the bid awarding system is being changed from one based on lowest price, to one based on best value over the life-cycle. Key criteria like whole life cost, service life planning and design quality are important through the key stages of evaluation process. The model uses a systematic and holistic approach which enables a public sector to make better decisions in design-builder selection, which will deliver whole life benefits, based on long term cost-effectiveness and whole life.

Accommodating special needs users in the evaluation of an m-Learning application:a case study

Adult illiteracy rates are alarmingly high worldwide. The portability, affordability, and ease of use of mobile (or handheld) devices offer a realistic opportunity to provide novel, context-sensitive literacy resources to adults with limited literacy skills. To this end, we developed the concept of ALEX – a mobile Adult Literacy support application for EXperiential learning (Lumsden et al., 2005). On the basis of a medium-fidelity prototype of this application, we conducted an evaluation of ALEX using participants from our in tended user group. This evaluation had two goals: (a) to assess the usefulness of the ALEX concept and the usability of its current design; and (b) to reflect on the appropriateness of our evaluation process given the literacy-related needs of our participants. This paper outlines our approach to this evaluation as well as the results we obtained and our reflections on the process.

The use of counterfactual scenarios as a means to assess policy deadweight:an Irish case study

The evaluation of industrial policy interventions has attracted increasing policy and academic attention in recent years. Despite the widespread consensus regarding the need for evaluation, the issue of how to evaluate, and the associated methodological considerations, continue to be issues of considerable debate. The authors develop an approach to estimate the net additionality of financial assistance from Enterprise Ireland to indigenously owned firms in Ireland for the period 2000 to 2002. With a sample of Enterprise Ireland assisted firms, an innovative, self-assessment, in-depth, face-to-face, interview methodology was adopted. The authors also explore a way of incorporating the indirect benefits of assistance into derived deadweight estimate issue which is seldom discussed in the context of deadweight estimates. They conclude by reflecting on the key methodological lessons learned from the evaluation process, and highlight some pertinent evaluation issues which should form the focus of much future discussion in this field of research.

Word of mouth communication within online communities:conceptualizing the online social network

Word of mouth (WOM) communication is a major part of online consumer interactions, particularly within the environment of online communities. Nevertheless, existing (offline) theory may be inappropriate to describe online WOM and its influence on evaluation and purchase.The authors report the results of a two-stage study aimed at investigating online WOM: a set of in-depth qualitative interviews followed by a social network analysis of a single online community. Combined, the results provide strong evidence that individuals behave as if Web sites themselves are primary "actors" in online social networks and that online communities can act as a social proxy for individual identification. The authors offer a conceptualization of online social networks which takes the Web site into account as an actor, an initial exploration of the concept of a consumer-Web site relationship, and a conceptual model of the online interaction and information evaluation process. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and Direct Marketing Educational Foundation, Inc.

The experience of delivering case award research in a public sector setting

The CASE Award PhD is a relatively new approach to completing academic research degrees, aligning the ideals of comprehensive research training and cross-collaboration between academics and organisations. As the initial wave of CASE funded PhD research begins to near completion, and indeed become evident through the publication of results, now is an appropriate time to begin the evaluation process of how to successfully deliver a CASE PhD, and to analyse the best practice approaches of completing a CASE Award with an organisation. This article intends to offer a picture into the CASE PhD process, with a focus on methods of communication to successfully implement this kind of research in collaboration with an organisation.

Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector

Guest editorial Ali Emrouznejad is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston Business School in Birmingham, UK. His areas of research interest include performance measurement and management, efficiency and productivity analysis as well as data mining. He has published widely in various international journals. He is an Associate Editor of IMA Journal of Management Mathematics and Guest Editor to several special issues of journals including Journal of Operational Research Society, Annals of Operations Research, Journal of Medical Systems, and International Journal of Energy Management Sector. He is in the editorial board of several international journals and co-founder of Performance Improvement Management Software. William Ho is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston University Business School. Before joining Aston in 2005, he had worked as a Research Associate in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. His research interests include supply chain management, production and operations management, and operations research. He has published extensively in various international journals like Computers & Operations Research, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, European Journal of Operational Research, Expert Systems with Applications, International Journal of Production Economics, International Journal of Production Research, Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, and so on. His first authored book was published in 2006. He is an Editorial Board member of the International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology and an Associate Editor of the OR Insight Journal. Currently, he is a Scholar of the Advanced Institute of Management Research. Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector This special issue aims to focus on holistic, applied research on performance measurement in energy sector management and for publication of relevant applied research to bridge the gap between industry and academia. After a rigorous refereeing process, seven papers were included in this special issue. The volume opens with five data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based papers. Wu et al. apply the DEA-based Malmquist index to evaluate the changes in relative efficiency and the total factor productivity of coal-fired electricity generation of 30 Chinese administrative regions from 1999 to 2007. Factors considered in the model include fuel consumption, labor, capital, sulphur dioxide emissions, and electricity generated. The authors reveal that the east provinces were relatively and technically more efficient, whereas the west provinces had the highest growth rate in the period studied. Ioannis E. Tsolas applies the DEA approach to assess the performance of Greek fossil fuel-fired power stations taking undesirable outputs into consideration, such as carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. In addition, the bootstrapping approach is deployed to address the uncertainty surrounding DEA point estimates, and provide bias-corrected estimations and confidence intervals for the point estimates. The author revealed from the sample that the non-lignite-fired stations are on an average more efficient than the lignite-fired stations. Maethee Mekaroonreung and Andrew L. Johnson compare the relative performance of three DEA-based measures, which estimate production frontiers and evaluate the relative efficiency of 113 US petroleum refineries while considering undesirable outputs. Three inputs (capital, energy consumption, and crude oil consumption), two desirable outputs (gasoline and distillate generation), and an undesirable output (toxic release) are considered in the DEA models. The authors discover that refineries in the Rocky Mountain region performed the best, and about 60 percent of oil refineries in the sample could improve their efficiencies further. H. Omrani, A. Azadeh, S. F. Ghaderi, and S. Abdollahzadeh presented an integrated approach, combining DEA, corrected ordinary least squares (COLS), and principal component analysis (PCA) methods, to calculate the relative efficiency scores of 26 Iranian electricity distribution units from 2003 to 2006. Specifically, both DEA and COLS are used to check three internal consistency conditions, whereas PCA is used to verify and validate the final ranking results of either DEA (consistency) or DEA-COLS (non-consistency). Three inputs (network length, transformer capacity, and number of employees) and two outputs (number of customers and total electricity sales) are considered in the model. Virendra Ajodhia applied three DEA-based models to evaluate the relative performance of 20 electricity distribution firms from the UK and the Netherlands. The first model is a traditional DEA model for analyzing cost-only efficiency. The second model includes (inverse) quality by modelling total customer minutes lost as an input data. The third model is based on the idea of using total social costs, including the firm’s private costs and the interruption costs incurred by consumers, as an input. Both energy-delivered and number of consumers are treated as the outputs in the models. After five DEA papers, Stelios Grafakos, Alexandros Flamos, Vlasis Oikonomou, and D. Zevgolis presented a multiple criteria analysis weighting approach to evaluate the energy and climate policy. The proposed approach is akin to the analytic hierarchy process, which consists of pairwise comparisons, consistency verification, and criteria prioritization. In the approach, stakeholders and experts in the energy policy field are incorporated in the evaluation process by providing an interactive mean with verbal, numerical, and visual representation of their preferences. A total of 14 evaluation criteria were considered and classified into four objectives, such as climate change mitigation, energy effectiveness, socioeconomic, and competitiveness and technology. Finally, Borge Hess applied the stochastic frontier analysis approach to analyze the impact of various business strategies, including acquisition, holding structures, and joint ventures, on a firm’s efficiency within a sample of 47 natural gas transmission pipelines in the USA from 1996 to 2005. The author finds that there were no significant changes in the firm’s efficiency by an acquisition, and there is a weak evidence for efficiency improvements caused by the new shareholder. Besides, the author discovers that parent companies appear not to influence a subsidiary’s efficiency positively. In addition, the analysis shows a negative impact of a joint venture on technical efficiency of the pipeline company. To conclude, we are grateful to all the authors for their contribution, and all the reviewers for their constructive comments, which made this special issue possible. We hope that this issue would contribute significantly to performance improvement of the energy sector.

Interval data without sign restrictions in DEA

Conventional DEA models assume deterministic, precise and non-negative data for input and output observations. However, real applications may be characterized by observations that are given in form of intervals and include negative numbers. For instance, the consumption of electricity in decentralized energy resources may be either negative or positive, depending on the heat consumption. Likewise, the heat losses in distribution networks may be within a certain range, depending on e.g. external temperature and real-time outtake. Complementing earlier work separately addressing the two problems; interval data and negative data; we propose a comprehensive evaluation process for measuring the relative efficiencies of a set of DMUs in DEA. In our general formulation, the intervals may contain upper or lower bounds with different signs. The proposed method determines upper and lower bounds for the technical efficiency through the limits of the intervals after decomposition. Based on the interval scores, DMUs are then classified into three classes, namely, the strictly efficient, weakly efficient and inefficient. An intuitive ranking approach is presented for the respective classes. The approach is demonstrated through an application to the evaluation of bank branches. © 2013.

GEO Label:user and producer perspectives on a label for geospatial data

One of the aims of the Science and Technology Committee (STC) of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) was to establish a GEO Label- a label to certify geospatial datasets and their quality. As proposed, the GEO Label will be used as a value indicator for geospatial data and datasets accessible through the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). It is suggested that the development of such a label will significantly improve user recognition of the quality of geospatial datasets and that its use will help promote trust in datasets that carry the established GEO Label. Furthermore, the GEO Label is seen as an incentive to data providers. At the moment GEOSS contains a large amount of data and is constantly growing. Taking this into account, a GEO Label could assist in searching by providing users with visual cues of dataset quality and possibly relevance; a GEO Label could effectively stand as a decision support mechanism for dataset selection. Currently our project - GeoViQua, - together with EGIDA and ID-03 is undertaking research to define and evaluate the concept of a GEO Label. The development and evaluation process will be carried out in three phases. In phase I we have conducted an online survey (GEO Label Questionnaire) to identify the initial user and producer views on a GEO Label or its potential role. In phase II we will conduct a further study presenting some GEO Label examples that will be based on Phase I. We will elicit feedback on these examples under controlled conditions. In phase III we will create physical prototypes which will be used in a human subject study. The most successful prototypes will then be put forward as potential GEO Label options. At the moment we are in phase I, where we developed an online questionnaire to collect the initial GEO Label requirements and to identify the role that a GEO Label should serve from the user and producer standpoint. The GEO Label Questionnaire consists of generic questions to identify whether users and producers believe a GEO Label is relevant to geospatial data; whether they want a single "one-for-all" label or separate labels that will serve a particular role; the function that would be most relevant for a GEO Label to carry; and the functionality that users and producers would like to see from common rating and review systems they use. To distribute the questionnaire, relevant user and expert groups were contacted at meetings or by email. At this stage we successfully collected over 80 valid responses from geospatial data users and producers. This communication will provide a comprehensive analysis of the survey results, indicating to what extent the users surveyed in Phase I value a GEO Label, and suggesting in what directions a GEO Label may develop. Potential GEO Label examples based on the results of the survey will be presented for use in Phase II.

A cloud-based farm management system:architecture and implementation

Recent technological advances have paved the way for developing and offering advanced services for the stakeholders in the agricultural sector. A paradigm shift is underway from proprietary and monolithic tools to Internet-based, cloud hosted, open systems that will enable more effective collaboration between stakeholders. This new paradigm includes the technological support of application developers to create specialized services that will seamlessly interoperate, thus creating a sophisticated and customisable working environment for the end users. We present the implementation of an open architecture that instantiates such an approach, based on a set of domain independent software tools called "generic enablers" that have been developed in the context of the FI-WARE project. The implementation is used to validate a number of innovative concepts for the agricultural sector such as the notion of a services' market place and the system's adaptation to network failures. During the design and implementation phase, the system has been evaluated by end users, offering us valuable feedback. The results of the evaluation process validate the acceptance of such a system and the need of farmers to have access to sophisticated services at affordable prices. A summary of this evaluation process is also presented in this paper. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Making sense of microposts (#MSM2013) concept extraction challenge

Microposts are small fragments of social media content that have been published using a lightweight paradigm (e.g. Tweets, Facebook likes, foursquare check-ins). Microposts have been used for a variety of applications (e.g., sentiment analysis, opinion mining, trend analysis), by gleaning useful information, often using third-party concept extraction tools. There has been very large uptake of such tools in the last few years, along with the creation and adoption of new methods for concept extraction. However, the evaluation of such efforts has been largely consigned to document corpora (e.g. news articles), questioning the suitability of concept extraction tools and methods for Micropost data. This report describes the Making Sense of Microposts Workshop (#MSM2013) Concept Extraction Challenge, hosted in conjunction with the 2013 World Wide Web conference (WWW'13). The Challenge dataset comprised a manually annotated training corpus of Microposts and an unlabelled test corpus. Participants were set the task of engineering a concept extraction system for a defined set of concepts. Out of a total of 22 complete submissions 13 were accepted for presentation at the workshop; the submissions covered methods ranging from sequence mining algorithms for attribute extraction to part-of-speech tagging for Micropost cleaning and rule-based and discriminative models for token classification. In this report we describe the evaluation process and explain the performance of different approaches in different contexts.

A methodology for the generation and evaluation of biorefinery process chains, in order to identify the most promising biorefineries for the EU

The topic of bioenergy, biofuels and bioproducts remains at the top of the current political and research agenda. Identification of the optimum processing routes for biomass, in terms of efficiency, cost, environment and socio-economics is vital as concern grows over the remaining fossil fuel resources, climate change and energy security. It is known that the only renewable way of producing conventional hydrocarbon fuels and organic chemicals is from biomass, but the problem remains of identifying the best product mix and the most efficient way of processing biomass to products. The aim is to move Europe towards a biobased economy and it is widely accepted that biorefineries are key to this development. A methodology was required for the generation and evaluation of biorefinery process chains for converting biomass into one or more valuable products that properly considers performance, cost, environment, socio-economics and other factors that influence the commercial viability of a process. In this thesis a methodology to achieve this objective is described. The completed methodology includes process chain generation, process modelling and subsequent analysis and comparison of results in order to evaluate alternative process routes. A modular structure was chosen to allow greater flexibility and allowing the user to generate a large number of different biorefinery configurations The significance of the approach is that the methodology is defined and is thus rigorous and consistent and may be readily re-examined if circumstances change. There was the requirement for consistency in structure and use, particularly for multiple analyses. It was important that analyses could be quickly and easily carried out to consider, for example, different scales, configurations and product portfolios and so that previous outcomes could be readily reconsidered. The result of the completed methodology is the identification of the most promising biorefinery chains from those considered as part of the European Biosynergy Project.

An evaluation of task analysis techniques for industrial process control

The concept of a task is fundamental to the discipline of ergonomics. Approaches to the analysis of tasks began in the early 1900's. These approaches have evolved and developed to the present day, when there is a vast array of methods available. Some of these methods are specific to particular contexts or applications, others more general. However, whilst many of these analyses allow tasks to be examined in detail, they do not act as tools to aid the design process or the designer. The present thesis examines the use of task analysis in a process control context, and in particular the use of task analysis to specify operator information and display requirements in such systems. The first part of the thesis examines the theoretical aspect of task analysis and presents a review of the methods, issues and concepts relating to task analysis. A review of over 80 methods of task analysis was carried out to form a basis for the development of a task analysis method to specify operator information requirements in industrial process control contexts. Of the methods reviewed Hierarchical Task Analysis was selected to provide such a basis and developed to meet the criteria outlined for such a method of task analysis. The second section outlines the practical application and evolution of the developed task analysis method. Four case studies were used to examine the method in an empirical context. The case studies represent a range of plant contexts and types, both complex and more simple, batch and continuous and high risk and low risk processes. The theoretical and empirical issues are drawn together and a method developed to provide a task analysis technique to specify operator information requirements and to provide the first stages of a tool to aid the design of VDU displays for process control.

Which is the best solar thermal collection technology for electricity generation in north-west India? Evaluation of options using the analytical hierarchy process

This study of concentrating solar thermal power generation sets out to evaluate the main existing collection technologies using the framework of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It encompasses parabolic troughs, heliostat fields, linear Fresnel reflectors, parabolic dishes, compound parabolic concentrators and linear Fresnel lenses. These technologies are compared based on technical, economic and environmental criteria. Within these three categories, numerous sub-criteria are identified; similarly sub-alternatives are considered for each technology. A literature review, thermodynamic calculations and an expert workshop have been used to arrive at quantitative and qualitative assessments. The methodology is applied principally to a case study in Gujarat in north-west India, though case studies based on the Sahara Desert, Southern Spain and California are included for comparison. A sensitivity analysis is carried out for Gujarat. The study concludes that the linear Fresnel lens with a secondary compound parabolic collector, or the parabolic dish reflector, is the preferred technology for north-west India.