Emulation of dynamic computer models with multivariate output

This preliminary report describes work carried out as part of work package 1.2 of the MUCM research project. The report is split in two parts: the ?rst part (Sections 1 and 2) summarises the state of the art in emulation of computer models, while the second presents some initial work on the emulation of dynamic models. In the ?rst part, we describe the basics of emulation, introduce the notation and put together the key results for the emulation of models with single and multiple outputs, with or without the use of mean function. In the second part, we present preliminary results on the chaotic Lorenz 63 model. We look at emulation of a single time step, and repeated application of the emulator for sequential predic- tion. After some design considerations, the emulator is compared with the exact simulator on a number of runs to assess its performance. Several general issues related to emulating dynamic models are raised and discussed. Current work on the larger Lorenz 96 model (40 variables) is presented in the context of dimension reduction, with results to be provided in a follow-up report. The notation used in this report are summarised in appendix.

Neural network enhanced self tuning adaptive control application for non-linear control of dynamic systems

The main theme of research of this project concerns the study of neutral networks to control uncertain and non-linear control systems. This involves the control of continuous time, discrete time, hybrid and stochastic systems with input, state or output constraints by ensuring good performances. A great part of this project is devoted to the opening of frontiers between several mathematical and engineering approaches in order to tackle complex but very common non-linear control problems. The objectives are: 1. Design and develop procedures for neutral network enhanced self-tuning adaptive non-linear control systems; 2. To design, as a general procedure, neural network generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller for non-linear dynamic plants (Integration of neural network mapping with generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller strategies); 3. To develop a software package to evaluate control system performances using Matlab, Simulink and Neural Network toolbox. An adaptive control algorithm utilising a recurrent network as a model of a partial unknown non-linear plant with unmeasurable state is proposed. Appropriately, it appears that structured recurrent neural networks can provide conveniently parameterised dynamic models for many non-linear systems for use in adaptive control. Properties of static neural networks, which enabled successful design of stable adaptive control in the state feedback case, are also identified. A survey of the existing results is presented which puts them in a systematic framework showing their relation to classical self-tuning adaptive control application of neural control to a SISO/MIMO control. Simulation results demonstrate that the self-tuning design methods may be practically applicable to a reasonably large class of unknown linear and non-linear dynamic control systems.

Anatomical correlates of dynamic auditory processing:relationship to literacy during early adolescence

Adults show great variation in their auditory skills, such as being able to discriminate between foreign speech-sounds. Previous research has demonstrated that structural features of auditory cortex can predict auditory abilities; here we are interested in the maturation of 2-Hz frequency-modulation (FM) detection, a task thought to tap into mechanisms underlying language abilities. We hypothesized that an individual's FM threshold will correlate with gray-matter density in left Heschl's gyrus, and that this function-structure relationship will change through adolescence. To test this hypothesis, we collected anatomical magnetic resonance imaging data from participants who were tested and scanned at three time points: at 10, 11.5 and 13 years of age. Participants judged which of two tones contained FM; the modulation depth was adjusted using an adaptive staircase procedure and their threshold was calculated based on the geometric mean of the last eight reversals. Using voxel-based morphometry, we found that FM threshold was significantly correlated with gray-matter density in left Heschl's gyrus at the age of 10 years, but that this correlation weakened with age. While there were no differences between girls and boys at Times 1 and 2, at Time 3 there was a relationship between gray-matter density in left Heschl's gyrus in boys but not in girls. Taken together, our results confirm that the structure of the auditory cortex can predict temporal processing abilities, namely that gray-matter density in left Heschl's gyrus can predict 2-Hz FM detection threshold. This ability is dependent on the processing of sounds changing over time, a skill believed necessary for speech processing. We tested this assumption and found that FM threshold significantly correlated with spelling abilities at Time 1, but that this correlation was found only in boys. This correlation decreased at Time 2, and at Time 3 we found a significant correlation between reading and FM threshold, but again, only in boys. We examined the sex differences in both the imaging and behavioral data taking into account pubertal stages, and found that the correlation between FM threshold and spelling was strongest pre-pubertally, and the correlation between FM threshold and gray-matter density in left Heschl's gyrus was strongest mid-pubertally.

Estimation of TFP growth:a semiparametric smooth coefficient approach

This article uses a semiparametric smooth coefficient model (SPSCM) to estimate TFP growth and its components (scale and technical change). The SPSCM is derived from a nonparametric specification of the production technology represented by an input distance function (IDF), using a growth formulation. The functional coefficients of the SPSCM come naturally from the model and are fully flexible in the sense that no functional form of the underlying production technology is used to derive them. Another advantage of the SPSCM is that it can estimate bias (input and scale) in technical change in a fully flexible manner. We also used a translog IDF framework to estimate TFP growth components. A panel of U.S. electricity generating plants for the period 1986–1998 is used for this purpose. Comparing estimated TFP growth results from both parametric and semiparametric models against the Divisia TFP growth, we conclude that the SPSCM performs the best in tracking the temporal behavior of TFP growth.

Measurement of intervertebral cervical motion by means of dynamic X-ray image processing and data interpolation

Accurate measurement of intervertebral kinematics of the cervical spine can support the diagnosis of widespread diseases related to neck pain, such as chronic whiplash dysfunction, arthritis, and segmental degeneration. The natural inaccessibility of the spine, its complex anatomy, and the small range of motion only permit concise measurement in vivo. Low dose X-ray fluoroscopy allows time-continuous screening of cervical spine during patient's spontaneous motion. To obtain accurate motion measurements, each vertebra was tracked by means of image processing along a sequence of radiographic images. To obtain a time-continuous representation of motion and to reduce noise in the experimental data, smoothing spline interpolation was used. Estimation of intervertebral motion for cervical segments was obtained by processing patient's fluoroscopic sequence; intervertebral angle and displacement and the instantaneous centre of rotation were computed. The RMS value of fitting errors resulted in about 0.2 degree for rotation and 0.2 mm for displacements. © 2013 Paolo Bifulco et al.

Estimation of computer waste quantities using forecasting techniques

Technology changes rapidly over years providing continuously more options for computer alternatives and making life easier for economic, intra-relation or any other transactions. However, the introduction of new technology “pushes” old Information and Communication Technology (ICT) products to non-use. E-waste is defined as the quantities of ICT products which are not in use and is bivariate function of the sold quantities, and the probability that specific computers quantity will be regarded as obsolete. In this paper, an e-waste generation model is presented, which is applied to the following regions: Western and Eastern Europe, Asia/Pacific, Japan/Australia/New Zealand, North and South America. Furthermore, cumulative computer sales were retrieved for selected countries of the regions so as to compute obsolete computer quantities. In order to provide robust results for the forecasted quantities, a selection of forecasting models, namely (i) Bass, (ii) Gompertz, (iii) Logistic, (iv) Trend model, (v) Level model, (vi) AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA), and (vii) Exponential Smoothing were applied, depicting for each country that model which would provide better results in terms of minimum error indices (Mean Absolute Error and Mean Square Error) for the in-sample estimation. As new technology does not diffuse in all the regions of the world with the same speed due to different socio-economic factors, the lifespan distribution, which provides the probability of a certain quantity of computers to be considered as obsolete, is not adequately modeled in the literature. The time horizon for the forecasted quantities is 2014-2030, while the results show a very sharp increase in the USA and United Kingdom, due to the fact of decreasing computer lifespan and increasing sales.