23 resultados para estimation error

em Aston University Research Archive


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Purpose – The aim of this study is to analyze consumers' price knowledge in the market for apparels. Design/methodology/approach – After reviewing earlier attempts at assessing the construct, the price estimation error “PEE” was used, a measure based on explicit price knowledge stored in long-term memory, as a valid indicator of price knowledge. Findings – The results, including data from about 1,527 consumers on 66 products from the German apparel market, indicate that price knowledge is relatively low. Originality/value – Although, in the literature, there are several studies on price knowledge in the food industry, little is known about price knowledge in other industry sectors. This is quite surprising since pricing strategy is a concept which is vitally important to all retailers. Therefore, this study is a first contribution to extending the concept of behavioral pricing to the apparel market.

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Price knowledge as a construct has been one of the top behavioral pricing themes in the last four decades, especially in the Anglo-American literature. In Germany, scientists have paid relatively little attention to this topic during the last 15 years – with some notable exceptions. Therefore, this study analyzes German consumers' price knowledge and, by doing so, replicates and extends existing international work. After reviewing earlier attempts at assessing the construct, a measure is developed for the price estimation error “PEE”, based on explicit price knowledge stored in long-term memory. Results, including data from about 1,000 consumers on 69 products from a German retail chain, indicate that price knowledge in Germany is relatively low. Based on that observation, implications for the management are discussed.

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Congestion control is critical for the provisioning of quality of services (QoS) over dedicated short range communications (DSRC) vehicle networks for road safety applications. In this paper we propose a congestion control method for DSRC vehicle networks at road intersection, with the aims of providing high availability and low latency channels for high priority emergency safety applications while maximizing channel utilization for low priority routine safety applications. In this method a offline simulation based approach is used to find out the best possible configurations of message rate and MAC layer backoff exponent (BE) for a given number of vehicles equipped with DSRC radios. The identified best configurations are then used online by an roadside access point (AP) for system operation. Simulation results demonstrated that this adaptive method significantly outperforms the fixed control method under varying number of vehicles. The impact of estimation error on the number of vehicles in the network on system level performance is also investigated.

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Recently underwater sensor networks (UWSN) attracted large research interests. Medium access control (MAC) is one of the major challenges faced by UWSN due to the large propagation delay and narrow channel bandwidth of acoustic communications used for UWSN. Widely used slotted aloha (S-Aloha) protocol suffers large performance loss in UWSNs, which can only achieve performance close to pure aloha (P-Aloha). In this paper we theoretically model the performances of S-Aloha and P-Aloha protocols and analyze the adverse impact of propagation delay. According to the observation on the performances of S-Aloha protocol we propose two enhanced S-Aloha protocols in order to minimize the adverse impact of propagation delay on S-Aloha protocol. The first enhancement is a synchronized arrival S-Aloha (SA-Aloha) protocol, in which frames are transmitted at carefully calculated time to align the frame arrival time with the start of time slots. Propagation delay is taken into consideration in the calculation of transmit time. As estimation error on propagation delay may exist and can affect network performance, an improved SA-Aloha (denoted by ISA-Aloha) is proposed, which adjusts the slot size according to the range of delay estimation errors. Simulation results show that both SA-Aloha and ISA-Aloha perform remarkably better than S-Aloha and P-Aloha for UWSN, and ISA-Aloha is more robust even when the propagation delay estimation error is large. © 2011 IEEE.

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This paper presents a new interpretation for the Superpave IDT strength test based on a viscoelastic-damage framework. The framework is based on continuum damage mechanics and the thermodynamics of irreversible processes with an anisotropic damage representation. The new approach introduces considerations for the viscoelastic effects and the damage accumulation that accompanies the fracture process in the interpretation of the Superpave IDT strength test for the identification of the Dissipated Creep Strain Energy (DCSE) limit from the test result. The viscoelastic model is implemented in a Finite Element Method (FEM) program for the simulation of the Superpave IDT strength test. The DCSE values obtained using the new approach is compared with the values obtained using the conventional approach to evaluate the validity of the assumptions made in the conventional interpretation of the test results. The result shows that the conventional approach over-estimates the DCSE value with increasing estimation error at higher deformation rates.

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In this letter, we experimentally study the statistical properties of a received QPSK modulated signal and compare various bit error rate (BER) estimation methods for coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing transmission. We show that the statistical BER estimation method based on the probability density function of the received QPSK symbols offers the most accurate estimate of the system performance.

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Coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (CO-OFDM) is an attractive transmission technique to virtually eliminate intersymbol interference caused by chromatic dispersion and polarization-mode dispersion. Design, development, and operation of CO-OFDM systems require simple, efficient, and reliable methods of their performance evaluation. In this paper, we demonstrate an accurate bit error rate estimation method for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission based on the probability density function of the received QPSK symbols. By comparing with other known approaches, including data-aided and nondata-aided error vector magnitude, we show that the proposed method offers the most accurate estimate of the system performance for both single channel and wavelength division multiplexing QPSK CO-OFDM transmission systems. © 2014 IEEE.

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We demonstrate an accurate BER estimation method for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission based on the probability density function of the received QPSK symbols. Using a 112Gbs QPSK CO-OFDM transmission as an example, we show that this method offers the most accurate estimate of the system's performance in comparison with other known approaches.

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In developing neural network techniques for real world applications it is still very rare to see estimates of confidence placed on the neural network predictions. This is a major deficiency, especially in safety-critical systems. In this paper we explore three distinct methods of producing point-wise confidence intervals using neural networks. We compare and contrast Bayesian, Gaussian Process and Predictive error bars evaluated on real data. The problem domain is concerned with the calibration of a real automotive engine management system for both air-fuel ratio determination and on-line ignition timing. This problem requires real-time control and is a good candidate for exploring the use of confidence predictions due to its safety-critical nature.

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Prices and yields of UK government zero-coupon bonds are used to test alternative yield curve estimation models. Zero-coupon bonds permit a more pure comparison, as the models are providing only the interpolation service and also not making estimation feasible. It is found that better yield curves estimates are obtained by fitting to the yield curve directly rather than fitting first to the discount function. A simple procedure to set the smoothness of the fitted curves is developed, and a positive relationship between oversmoothness and the fitting error is identified. A cubic spline function fitted directly to the yield curve provides the best overall balance of fitting error and smoothness, both along the yield curve and within local maturity regions.

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Distributed Brillouin sensing of strain and temperature works by making spatially resolved measurements of the position of the measurand-dependent extremum of the resonance curve associated with the scattering process in the weakly nonlinear regime. Typically, measurements of backscattered Stokes intensity (the dependent variable) are made at a number of predetermined fixed frequencies covering the design measurand range of the apparatus and combined to yield an estimate of the position of the extremum. The measurand can then be found because its relationship to the position of the extremum is assumed known. We present analytical expressions relating the relative error in the extremum position to experimental errors in the dependent variable. This is done for two cases: (i) a simple non-parametric estimate of the mean based on moments and (ii) the case in which a least squares technique is used to fit a Lorentzian to the data. The question of statistical bias in the estimates is discussed and in the second case we go further and present for the first time a general method by which the probability density function (PDF) of errors in the fitted parameters can be obtained in closed form in terms of the PDFs of the errors in the noisy data.

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Applying direct error counting, we compare the accuracy and evaluate the validity of different available numerical approaches to the estimation of the bit-error rate (BER) in 40-Gb/s return-to-zero differential phase-shift-keying transmission. As a particular example, we consider a system with in-line semiconductor optical amplifiers. We demonstrate that none of the existing models has an absolute superiority over the others. We also reveal the impact of the duty cycle on the accuracy of the BER estimates through the differently introduced Q-factors.

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Applying direct error counting, we assess the performance of 20 Gbit/s wavelength-division multiplexing return-to-zero differential phase-shift keying (RZ-DPSK) transmission at 0.4 bit/(s Hz) spectral efficiency for application on installed non-zero dispersion-shifted fibre based transoceanic submarine systems. The impact of the pulse duty cycle on the system performance is investigated and the reliability of the existing theoretical approaches to the BER estimation for the RZ-DPSK format is discussed.

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Distributed Brillouin sensing of strain and temperature works by making spatially resolved measurements of the position of the measurand-dependent extremum of the resonance curve associated with the scattering process in the weakly nonlinear regime. Typically, measurements of backscattered Stokes intensity (the dependent variable) are made at a number of predetermined fixed frequencies covering the design measurand range of the apparatus and combined to yield an estimate of the position of the extremum. The measurand can then be found because its relationship to the position of the extremum is assumed known. We present analytical expressions relating the relative error in the extremum position to experimental errors in the dependent variable. This is done for two cases: (i) a simple non-parametric estimate of the mean based on moments and (ii) the case in which a least squares technique is used to fit a Lorentzian to the data. The question of statistical bias in the estimates is discussed and in the second case we go further and present for the first time a general method by which the probability density function (PDF) of errors in the fitted parameters can be obtained in closed form in terms of the PDFs of the errors in the noisy data.

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Applying direct error counting, we compare the accuracy and evaluate the validity of different available numerical approaches to the estimation of the bit-error rate (BER) in 40-Gb/s return-to-zero differential phase-shift-keying transmission. As a particular example, we consider a system with in-line semiconductor optical amplifiers. We demonstrate that none of the existing models has an absolute superiority over the others. We also reveal the impact of the duty cycle on the accuracy of the BER estimates through the differently introduced Q-factors. © 2007 IEEE.