A fuzzy levelised energy cost method for renewable energy technology assessment

Renewable energy project development is highly complex and success is by no means guaranteed. Decisions are often made with approximate or uncertain information yet the current methods employed by decision-makers do not necessarily accommodate this. Levelised energy costs (LEC) are one such commonly applied measure utilised within the energy industry to assess the viability of potential projects and inform policy. The research proposes a method for achieving this by enhancing the traditional discounting LEC measure with fuzzy set theory. Furthermore, the research develops the fuzzy LEC (F-LEC) methodology to incorporate the cost of financing a project from debt and equity sources. Applied to an example bioenergy project, the research demonstrates the benefit of incorporating fuzziness for project viability, optimal capital structure and key variable sensitivity analysis decision-making. The proposed method contributes by incorporating uncertain and approximate information to the widely utilised LEC measure and by being applicable to a wide range of energy project viability decisions. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The modelling of energy efficient drying for DSM (BL)

This thesis investigates the modelling of drying processes for the promotion of market-led Demand Side Management (DSM) as applied to the UK Public Electricity Suppliers. A review of DSM in the electricity supply industry is provided, together with a discussion of the relevant drivers supporting market-led DSM and energy services (ES). The potential opportunities for ES in a fully deregulated energy market are outlined. It is suggested that targeted industrial sector energy efficiency schemes offer significant opportunity for long term customer and supplier benefit. On a process level, industrial drying is highlighted as offering significant scope for the application of energy services. Drying is an energy-intensive process used widely throughout industry. The results of an energy survey suggest that 17.7 per cent of total UK industrial energy use derives from drying processes. Comparison with published work indicates that energy use for drying shows an increasing trend against a background of reducing overall industrial energy use. Airless drying is highlighted as offering potential energy saving and production benefits to industry. To this end, a comprehensive review of the novel airless drying technology and its background theory is made. Advantages and disadvantages of airless operation are defined and the limited market penetration of airless drying is identified, as are the key opportunities for energy saving. Limited literature has been found which details the modelling of energy use for airless drying. A review of drying theory and previous modelling work is made in an attempt to model energy consumption for drying processes. The history of drying models is presented as well as a discussion of the different approaches taken and their relative merits. The viability of deriving energy use from empirical drying data is examined. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are successfully applied to the modelling of drying rates for 3 drying technologies, namely convective air, heat pump and airless drying. The ANFIS systems are then integrated into a novel energy services model for the prediction of relative drying times, energy cost and atmospheric carbon dioxide emission levels. The author believes that this work constitutes the first to use fuzzy systems for the modelling of drying performance as an energy services approach to DSM. To gain an insight into the 'real world' use of energy for drying, this thesis presents a unique first-order energy audit of every ceramic sanitaryware manufacturing site in the UK. Previously unknown patterns of energy use are highlighted. Supplementary comments on the timing and use of drying systems are also made. The limitations of such large scope energy surveys are discussed.

A rationale for the optimisation by computer methods of the efficient use of metals and materials

The aim of the research project was to gain d complete and accurate accounting of the needs and deficiencies of materials selection and design data, with particular attention given to the feasibility of a computerised materials selection system that would include application analysis, property data and screening techniques. The project also investigates and integrates the three major aspects of materials resources, materials selection and materials recycling. Consideration of the materials resource base suggests that, though our discovery potential has increased, geologic availability is the ultimate determinant and several metals may well become scarce at the same time, thus compounding the problem of substitution. With around 2- to 20- million units of engineering materials data, the use of a computer is the only logical answer for scientific selection of materials. The system developed at Aston is used for data storage, mathematical computation and output. The system enables programs to be run in batch and interactive (on-line) mode. The program with modification can also handle such variables as quantity of mineral resources, energy cost of materials and depletion and utilisation rates of strateqic materials. The work also carries out an in-depth study of copper recycling in the U.K. and concludes that, somewhere in the region of 2 million tonnes of copper is missing from the recycling cycle. It also sets out guidelines on product design and conservation policies from the recyclability point of view.

The feasibility of hybrid solar-biomass power plants in India

We assess the feasibility of hybrid solar-biomass power plants for use in India in various applications including tri-generation, electricity generation and process heat. To cover this breadth of scenarios we analyse, with the help of simulation models, case studies with peak thermal capacities ranging from 2 to 10 MW. Evaluations are made against technical, financial and environmental criteria. Suitable solar multiples, based on the trade-offs among the various criteria, range from 1 to 2.5. Compared to conventional energy sources, levelised energy costs are high - but competitive in comparison to other renewables such as photovoltaic and wind. Long payback periods for hybrid plants mean that they cannot compete directly with biomass-only systems. However, a 1.2-3.2 times increase in feedstock price will result in hybrid systems becoming cost competitive. Furthermore, in comparison to biomass-only, hybrid operation saves up to 29% biomass and land with an 8.3-24.8 $/GJ/a and 1.8-5.2 ¢/kWh increase in cost per exergy loss and levelised energy cost. Hybrid plants will become an increasingly attractive option as the cost of solar thermal falls and feedstock, fossil fuel and land prices continue to rise. In the foreseeable future, solar will continue to rely on subsidies and it is recommended to subsidise preferentially tri-generation plants. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Accommodating energy price volatility in life cycle cost analysis of asphalt pavements

Energy price is related to more than half of the total life cycle cost of asphalt pavements. Furthermore, the fluctuation related to price of energy has been much higher than the general inflation and interest rate. This makes the energy price inflation an important variable that should be addressed when performing life cycle cost (LCC) studies re- garding asphalt pavements. The present value of future costs is highly sensitive to the selected discount rate. Therefore, the choice of the discount rate is the most critical element in LCC analysis during the life time of a project. The objective of the paper is to present a discount rate for asphalt pavement projects as a function of interest rate, general inflation and energy price inflation. The discount rate is defined based on the portion of the energy related costs during the life time of the pavement. Consequently, it can reflect the financial risks related to the energy price in asphalt pavement projects. It is suggested that a discount rate sensitivity analysis for asphalt pavements in Sweden should range between –20 and 30%.

Comparison of cost- and energy-efficient signal modulations for next generation passive optical networks

Extensive numerical investigations are undertaken to analyze and compare, for the first time, the performance, techno-economy, and power consumption of three-level electrical Duobinary, optical Duobinary, and PAM-4 modulation formats as candidates for high-speed next-generation PONs supporting downstream 40 Gb/s per wavelength signal transmission over standard SMFs in C-band. Optimization of transceiver bandwidths are undertaken to show the feasibility of utilizing low-cost and band-limited components to support next-generation PON transmissions. The effect of electro-absorption modulator chirp is examined for electrical Duobinary and PAM-4. Electrical Duobinary and optical Duobinary are powerefficient schemes for smaller transmission distances of 10 km SMFs and optical Duobinary offers the best receiver sensitivity albeit with a relatively high transceiver cost. PAM-4 shows the best power budget and costefficiency for larger distances of around 20 km, although it consumes more power. Electrical Duobinary shows the best trade-off between performance, cost and power dissipation.

Cost-exergy optimisation of linear Fresnel reflectors

This paper presents a new method for the optimisation of the mirror element spacing arrangement and operating temperature of linear Fresnel reflectors (LFR). The specific objective is to maximise available power output (i.e. exergy) and operational hours whilst minimising cost. The method is described in detail and compared to an existing design method prominent in the literature. Results are given in terms of the exergy per total mirror area (W/m2) and cost per exergy (US $/W). The new method is applied principally to the optimisation of an LFR in Gujarat, India, for which cost data have been gathered. It is recommended to use a spacing arrangement such that the onset of shadowing among mirror elements occurs at a transversal angle of 45°. This results in a cost per exergy of 2.3 $/W. Compared to the existing design approach, the exergy averaged over the year is increased by 9% to 50 W/m2 and an additional 122 h of operation per year are predicted. The ideal operating temperature at the surface of the absorber tubes is found to be 300 °C. It is concluded that the new method is an improvement over existing techniques and a significant tool for any future design work on LFR systems

Measurement of key compositional parameters in two species of energy grass by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy

Two energy grass species, switch grass, a North American tuft grass, and reed canary grass, a European native, are likely to be important sources of biomass in Western Europe for the production of biorenewable energy. Matching chemical composition to conversion efficiency is a primary goal for improvement programmes and for determining the quality of biomass feed-stocks prior to use and there is a need for methods which allow cost effective characterisation of chemical composition at high rates of sample through-put. In this paper we demonstrate that nitrogen content and alkali index, parameters greatly influencing thermal conversion efficiency, can be accurately predicted in dried samples of these species grown under a range of agronomic conditions by partial least square regression of Fourier transform infrared spectra (R2 values for plots of predicted vs. measured values of 0.938 and 0.937, respectively). We also discuss the prediction of carbon and ash content in these samples and the application of infrared based predictive methods for the breeding improvement of energy grasses.

Estimation of the production cost of fast pyrolysis bio-oil

A number of papers and reports covering the techno-economic analysis of bio-oil production has been published. These have had different scopes, use different feedstocks and reflected national cost structures. This paper reviews and compares their cost estimates and the experimental results that underpin them. A comprehensive cost and performance model was produced based on consensus data from the previous studies or stated scenarios where data is not available that reflected UK costs. The model takes account sales of bio-char that is a co-product of pyrolysis and the electricity consumption of the pyrolysis plant and biomass pre-processing plants. It was concluded that it should be able to produce bio-oil in the UK from energy crops for a similar cost as distillate fuel oil. It was also found that there was little difference in the processing cost for woodchips and baled miscanthus. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Energy conservation measures on an industrial site

World and UK energy resources and use are reviewed and the role of energy conservation in energy policy identified. In considering various energy conservation measures, a distinction is made between energy intensive and non-intensive industries and also between direct and indirect uses of energy. Particular attention is given to the non-intensive user of energy. Energy use on one such industrial site has been studied to determine the most effective energy saving measures in the short term. Here it is estimated that over 65% of energy is consumed for indirect purposes, mainly for heating and lighting buildings. Emphasis is placed on energy auditing techniques and those energy saving measures requiring greater technical, economic and organisational resources to secure their implementation. Energy auditing techniques include the use of aerial thermography and snow formation surveys to detect heat losses. Qualitative and quantitative interpretations are carried out, but restricted mainly to evaluating building roof heat losses. From the energy auditing exercise, it is confirmed that the intermittent heating of buildings is the largest and most cost effective fuel saving measure. This was implemented on the site and a heat monitoring programme established to verify results. Industrial combined heat and power generation is investigated. A proposal for the site demonstrates that there are several obstacles to its successful implementation. By adopting an alternative financial rationale, a way of overcoming these obstacles is suggested. A useful by-product of the study is the classification of industrial sites according to the nature of industrial energy demand patterns. Finally, energy saving measures implemented on the site are quantlfied using comparative verification methods. Overall fuel savings of 13% are indicated. Cumulative savings in heating fuel amount to 26% over four years although heated area increased by approximately 25%.

Energy conservation in the steel industry

The last few years have witnessed an unprecedented increase in the price of energy available to industry in the United Kingdom and worldwide. The steel industry, as a major consumer of energy delivered in U.K. (8% of national total and nearly 25% of industrial total) and whose energy costs currently form some 28% of the total manufacturing cost, is very much aware of the need to conserve energy. Because of the complexities of steelmaking processes it is imperative that a full understanding of each process and its interlinking role in an integrated steelworks is understood. An analysis of energy distribution shows that as much as 70% of heat input is dissipated to the environment in a variety of forms. Of these, waste gases offer the best potential for energy conservation. The study identifies areas for and discusses novel methods of energy conservation in each process. Application of these schemes in BSC works is developed and their economic incentives highlighted. A major part of this thesis describes design, development and testing of a novel ceramic rotary regenerator for heat recovery from high temperature waste gases, where no such system is available. The regenerator is a compact, efficient heat exchanger. Application of such a system to a reheating furnace provides a fuel saving of up to 40%. A mathematical model developed is verified on the pilot plant. The results obtained confirm the success of the concept and material selection and outlines the work needed to develop an industrial unit. Last, but not least, the key position of an energy manager in an energy conservation programme is identified and a new Energy Management Model for the BSC is developed.

Planning and decision-making for energy recovery from waste at the sub-regional level

This research project has developed a novel decision support system using Geographical Information Systems and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and used it to develop and evaluate energy-from-waste policy options. The system was validated by applying it to the UK administrative areas of Cornwall and Warwickshire. Different strategies have been defined by the size and number of the facilities, as well as the technology chosen. Using sensitivity on the results from the decision support system, it was found that key decision criteria included those affected by cost, energy efficiency, transport impacts and air/dioxin emissions. The conclusions of this work are that distributed small-scale energy-from-waste facilities score most highly overall and that scale is more important than technology design in determining overall policy impact. This project makes its primary contribution to energy-from-waste planning by its development of a Decision Support System that can be used to assist waste disposal authorities to identify preferred energy-from-waste options that have been tailored specifically to the socio-geographic characteristics of their jurisdictional areas. The project also highlights the potential of energy-from-waste policies that are seldom given enough attention to in the UK, namely those of a smaller-scale and distributed nature that often have technology designed specifically to cater for this market.

A techno-economic assessment of the use of fast pyrolysis bio-oil from UK energy crops in the production of electricity and combined heat and power

This thesis investigates the cost of electricity generation using bio-oil produced by the fast pyrolysis of UK energy crops. The study covers cost from the farm to the generator’s terminals. The use of short rotation coppice willow and miscanthus as feedstocks was investigated. All costs and performance data have been taken from published papers, reports or web sites. Generation technologies are compared at scales where they have proved economic burning other fuels, rather than at a given size. A pyrolysis yield model was developed for a bubbling fluidised bed fast pyrolysis reactor from published data to predict bio-oil yields and pyrolysis plant energy demands. Generation using diesel engines, gas turbines in open and combined cycle (CCGT) operation and steam cycle plants was considered. The use of bio-oil storage to allow the pyrolysis and generation plants to operate independently of each other was investigated. The option of using diesel generators and open cycle gas turbines for combined heat and power was examined. The possible cost reductions that could be expected through learning if the technology is widely implemented were considered. It was found that none of the systems analysed would be viable without subsidy, but with the current Renewable Obligation Scheme CCGT plants in the 200 to 350 MWe range, super-critical coal fired boilers co-fired with bio-oil, and groups of diesel engine based CHP schemes supplied by a central pyrolysis plant would be viable. It was found that the cost would reduce with implementation and the planting of more energy crops but some subsidy would still be needed to make the plants viable.

Analysis of transport costs for energy crops for use in biomass pyrolysis plant networks

Fast pyrolysis of biomass produces a liquid bio-oil that can be used for electricity generation. Bio-oil can be stored and transported so it is possible to decouple the pyrolysis process from the generation process. This allows each process to be separately optimised. It is necessary to have an understanding of the transport costs involved in order to carry out techno-economic assessments of combinations of remote pyrolysis plants and generation plants. Published fixed and variable costs for freight haulage have been used to calculate the transport cost for trucks running between field stores and a pyrolysis plant. It was found that the key parameter for estimating these costs was the number of round trips a day a truck could make rather than the distance covered. This zone costing approach was used to estimate the transport costs for a range of pyrolysis plants size for willow woodchips and baled miscanthus. The possibility of saving transport costs by producing bio-oil near to the field stores and transporting the bio-oil to a central plant was investigated and it was found that this would only be cost effective for large generation plants.

Energy saving and solar electricity in fan-ventilated greenhouses

Greenhouse cultivation is an energy intensive process therefore it is worthwhile to introduce energy saving measures and alternative energy sources. Here we show that there is scope for energy saving in fan ventilated greenhouses. Measurements of electricity usage as a function of fan speed have been performed for two models of 1.25 m diameter greenhouse fans and compared to theoretical values. Reducing the speed can cut the energy usage per volume of air moved by more than 70%. To minimize the capital cost of low-speed operation, a cooled greenhouse has been built in which the fan speed responds to sunlight such that full speed is reached only around noon. The energy saving is about 40% compared to constant speed operation. Direct operation of fans from solar-photovoltaic modules is also viable as shown from experiments with a fan driven by a brushless DC motor. On comparing the Net Present Value costs of the different systems over a 10 year amortization period (with and without a carbon tax to represent environmental costs) we find that sunlight-controlled system saves money under all assumptions about taxation and discount rates. The solar-powered system, however, is only profitable for very low discount rates, due to the high initial capital costs. Nonetheless this system could be of interest for its reliability in developing countries where mains electricity is intermittent. We recommend that greenhouse fan manufacturers improve the availability of energy-saving designs such as those described here.