Applying a public policy evaluation methodology for local socio-economic impacts: an exploration in realistic modelling

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Economic aspects of safety in the Greek construction industry

The thesis addresses the economic impacts of construction safety in Greece. The research involved the development of a methodology for determining the overall costs of safety, namely the sum of the costs of accidents and the costs of safety management failures (with or without accident) including image cost. Hitherto, very little work has been published on the cost of accidents in practical case studies. Moreover, to the author’s belief, no research has been published that seeks to determine in real cases the costs of prevention. The methodology developed is new, transparent, and capable of being replicated and adapted to other employment sectors and to other countries. The methodology was applied to three construction projects in Greece to test the safety costing methodology and to offer some preliminary evidence on the business case for safety. The survey work took place between 1999 and 2001 and involved 27 months of costing work on site. The study focuses on the overall costs of safety that apply to the main (principal) contractor. The methodology is supported by 120 discrete cost categories, and systematic criteria for determining which costs are included (counted) in the overall cost of safety. A quality system (in compliance with ISO9000 series) was developed to support the work and ensure accuracy of data gathering. The results of the study offer some support for the business case for safety. Though they offer good support for the economics of safety as they demonstrate need for cost effectiveness. Subject to important caveats, those projects that appeared to manage safety more cost-effectively achieved the lowest overall safety cost. Nevertheless, results are significantly lower than of other published works for two main reasons; first costs due to damages with no potential to injury were not included and second only costs to main constructor were considered. Study’s results are discussed and compared with other publish works.

European biorefineries:implications for land, trade and employment

Biorefineries are expected to play a major role in a future low carbon economy and substantial investments are being made to support this vision. However, it is important to consider the wider socio-economic impacts of such a transition. This paper quantifies the potential trade, employment and land impacts of economically viable European biorefinery options based on indigenous straw and wood feedstocks. It illustrates how there could be potential for 70-80 European biorefineries, but not hundreds. A single facility could generate tens of thousands of man-years of employment and employment creation per unit of feedstock is higher than for biomass power plants. However, contribution to national GDP is unlikely to exceed 1% in European member states, although contributions to national agricultural productivity may be more significant, particularly with straw feedstocks. There is also a risk that biorefinery development could result in reduced rates of straw incorporation into soil, raising concerns that economically rational decisions to sell rather than reincorporate straw could result in increased agricultural land-use or greenhouse gas emissions. © 2013.

Plant closures and taskforce responses:an analysis of the impact of and policy response to MG Rover in Birmingham

This paper explores the socio-economic impacts and associated policy responses to the collapse of MG Rover at Longbridge in Birmingham. Critically, it attempts to move beyond a ‘standard’ taskforce narrative that emphasizes the role of the regional response. While recognizing that significant policy ‘successes’ were indeed evident at the regional level in anticipating and responding to the crisis, a wider perspective is required that situates this taskforce response in (1) a fuller understanding of labour market precariousness (that in turn mitigates some of its policy ‘successes’), and (2) more local perspectives that highlight the local impacts of closure, the role of the neighbourhood level officials and the third sector in mediating these. Taking this broader perspective suggests that longer-term, workers face a precarious situation and the need for policies to create and sustain ‘good quality’ jobs remains paramount. Adding in more local perspectives, a key lesson from the Longbridge experience for dealing with closures more generally is that the public policy responses must be: multidimensional in that they transcend narrow sector-based concerns and addresses broader spatial impacts; inclusive in that they build on a broad coalition of economic and social stakeholders; and long-term in that they acknowledge that adaptation takes many years. If anything, the Birmingham Longbridge experience demonstrates the difficulty of achieving such responses in the context of crisis where action is imperative and deliberation a luxury.

Local-authority led economic regeneration strategies in the aftermath of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease crisis of 2001

The Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak of 2001 in the UK was completely unprecedented in its scale and severity, with over four million animals culled and a cost to the Exchequer of over £4 billion. Local authorities were at the front line in dealing with the outbreak, in coordinating the cull of livestock, the disposal of carcasses as well as attempting to deal with its aftermath and, in particular, the impact on the wider rural economy. This article examines the impacts of this crisis on three local authorities, Devon, Herefordshire and Cumbria. It examines how far the crisis acted as a catalyst in developing strategies to deal with a future outbreak as well as new local initiatives to promote regeneration in the areas most adversely affected. It focuses on developments that can be directly attributed to the crisis and shows that FMD had a considerable impact on communications and 'joined-up' activity within local authorities and with local stakeholders. © 2006, LEPU, South Bank University.

Openness and economic growth

The themes of this thesis are that international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are closely related and that they have varying impacts on economic growth in countries at different stages of development. The thesis consists of three empirical studies. The first one examines the causal relationship between FDI and trade in China. The empirical study is based on a panel of bilateral data for China and 19 home countries/regions over the period 1984-98. The specific feature of the study is that econometric techniques designed specially for panel data are applied to test for unit roots and causality. The results indicate a virtuous procedure of development for China. The growth of China’s imports causes growth in inward FDI from a home country/region, which in turn causes the growth of exports from China to the home country/region. The growth of exports causes the growth of imports. This virtuous procedure is the result of China’s policy of opening to the outside world. China has been encouraging export-oriented FDI and reducing trade barriers. Such policy instruments should be further encouraged in order to enhance economic growth. In the second study, an extended gravity model is constructed to identify the main causes of recent trade growth in OECD countries. The specific features include (a) the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as two important explanatory variables into an augmented gravity equation; (b) the adoption of a panel data approach, and (c) the careful treatment of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to the volume of bilateral trade, while the geographical distance, exchange rate and relative factor endowments, has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and economic growth theories. The third study evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups. This research distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: first, both trade and FDI are included in the measurement of openness. Second, countries are divided' into three groups according to their development stages to compare the roles of FDI and trade in different groups. Third, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of FDI and trade are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are that FDI and trade are both beneficial to a country's development. However, trade has positive effects on growth in all country groups but FDI has positive effects on growth only in the country groups which have had moderate development. The findings suggest FDI and trade may affect growth under different conditions.

Foreign direct investment and economic development:an interactive relationship

With the increasing importance of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), there have been substantial studies on this issue, both empirically and theoretically. However, most existing studies focus on either the impacts of FDI presence or the determinants of FDI inflows, ignoring the fact that inward FDI and economic development may simultaneously affect each other. This thesis sets out to examine the interactive effects between FDI and economic development. The whole thesis is composed of five chapters. Chapter One is an overall introduction to the thesis. Chapter Two presents a theoretical study and chapter Two and Three provide two empirical studies. Chapter Five concludes. Chapter Two presents a theoretical two-sector model that features the importance of human capital in attracting foreign investment. This model theoretically explains why FDI is more likely to occur among countries that are similar in terms of human capital and technology. On the other hand, MNCs must train local employees to work with firm-specific technology and hence improve the technological skills of local workers. In Chapter Two, an empirical model is constructed to detect whether the productivities of foreign and local firms impact each other. The model is tested on China’s data at the industry level. The results indicate that productivity growth of local and foreign firms are jointly determined. Evidence also suggests that the extent to which spillovers occur varies with difference technology levels of local firms. Chapter Four investigates the relationship between FDI and economic grown based on a panel of data for 84 countries over the period 1970-1999. Both equations of FDI inflow and GDP growth are examined. The results indicate that FDI not only directly promotes economic growth by itself, but also indirectly does so via its interaction terms. There is a strong positive interaction effect of FDI with human capital and a strong negative interaction effect of FDI with technology gap on economic growth in developing countries.

The environmental impacts of technical change

The thesis is concerned with relationships between profit, technology and environmental change. Existing work has concentrated on only a few questions, treated at either micro or macro levels of analysis. And there has been something of an impasse since the neoclassical and neomarxist approaches are either in direct conflict (macro level), or hardly interact (micro level). The aim of the thesis was to bypass this impasse by starting to develop a meso level of analysis that focusses on issues largely ignored in the traditional approaches - on questions about distribution. The first questions looked at were descriptive - what were the patterns of distribution over time of the variability in types and rates of environmental change, and in particular, was there any evidence of periodization? Two case studies were used to examine these issues. The first looked at environmental change in the iron and steel industry since 1700, and the second studied pollution in five industries in the basic processing sector. It was established that environmental change has been markedly periodized, with an apparently fairly regular `cycle length' of about fifty years. The second questions considered were explanatory - whether and how this periodization could be accounted for by reference to variations in aspects of profitability and technical change. In the iron and steel industry, it was found that diffusion rates and the rate of nature of innovation were periodized on the same pattern as was environmental change. And the same sort of variation was also present in the realm of profits, as evidenced by cyclical changes in output growth. Simple theoretical accounts could be given for all the empirically demonstrable links, and it was suggested that the most useful models at this meso level of analysis are provided by structural change models of economic development.

Managing the impacts of wireless technology

This paper investigates and implicates how organisations renovate their service operations and improve business productivity in the context of wireless networks and mobile technologies. Drawing from two case studies conducted in healthcare institutions situated in southwest USA, the findings suggested that wireless networks and relevant technologies evidently enhanced business productivity and fundamentally changed service provision and, in turn, shaped or reshaped organisational images in the community. The implications reinforced the notions that technology could provide foundation for an organisation’s economic growth and that organisations’ business and IT strategies need to seriously consider aligning with this technological trend. For researchers, how organisations in different industries manoeuvre their ways around these technologies might provide interesting venues for future investigation.

Impacts of flood hazards on small and medium companies:strategies for property level protection and business continuity

Worldwide floods have become one of the costliest weather-related hazards, causing large-scale human, economic, and environmental damage during the recent past. Recent years have seen a large number of such flood events around the globe, with Europe and the United Kingdom being no exception. Currently, about one in six properties in England is at risk of flooding (EA, 2009), and the risk is expected to further increase in the future (Evans et al., 2004). Although public spending on community-level flood protection has increased and some properties are protected by such protection schemes, many properties at risk of flooding may still be left without adequate protection. As far as businesses are concerned, this has led to an increased need for implementing strategies for property-level flood protection and business continuity, in order to improve their capacity to survive a flood hazard. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) constitute a significant portion of the UK business community. In the United Kingdom, more than 99% of private sector enterprises fall within the category of SMEs (BERR, 2008). They account for more than half of employment creation (59%) and turnover generation (52%) (BERR, 2008), and are thus considered the backbone of the UK economy. However, they are often affected disproportionately by natural hazards when compared with their larger counterparts (Tierney and Dahlhamer, 1996; Webb, Tierney, and Dahlhamer, 2000; Alesch et al., 2001) due to their increased vulnerability. Previous research reveals that small businesses are not adequately prepared to cope with the risk of natural hazards and to recover following such events (Tierney and Dahlhamer, 1996; Alesch et al., 2001; Yoshida and Deyle, 2005; Crichton, 2006; Dlugolecki, 2008). For instance, 90% of small businesses do not have adequate insurance coverage for their property (AXA Insurance UK, 2008) and only about 30% have a business continuity plan (Woodman, 2008). Not being adequately protected by community-level flood protection measures as well as property- and business-level protection measures threatens the survival of SMEs, especially those located in flood risk areas. This chapter discusses the potential effects of flood hazards on SMEs and the coping strategies that the SMEs can undertake to ensure the continuity of their business activities amid flood events. It contextualizes this discussion within a survey conducted under the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) funded research project entitled “Community Resilience to Extreme Weather — CREW”.

Consumer trial, continuous use, and economic benefits of a retail service innovation:the case of the personal shopping assistant

Service innovations in retailing have the potential to benefit consumers as well as retailers. This research models key factors associated with the trial and continuous use of a specific self-service technology (SST), the personal shopping assistant (PSA), and estimates retailer benefits from implementing that innovation. Based on theoretical insights from prior SST studies, diffusion of innovation literature, and the technology acceptance model (TAM), this study develops specific hypotheses and tests them on a sample of 104 actual users of the PSA and 345 nonusers who shopped at the retail store offering the PSA device. Results indicate that factors affecting initial trial are different from those affecting continuous use. More specifically, consumers' trust toward the retailer, novelty seeking, and market mavenism are positively related to trial, while technology anxiety hinders the likelihood of trying the PSA. Perceived ease of use of the device positively impacts continuous use while consumers' need for interaction in shopping environments reduces the likelihood of continuous use. Importantly, there is evidence on retailer benefits from introducing the innovation since consumers using the PSA tend to spend more during each shopping trip. However, given the high costs of technology, the payback period for recovery of investments in innovation depends largely upon continued use of the innovation by consumers. Important implications are provided for retailers considering investments in new in-store service innovations. Incorporation of technology within physical stores affords opportunities for the retailer to reduce costs, while enhancing service provided to consumers. Therefore, service innovations in retailing have the potential to benefit consumers as well as retailers. This research models key factors associated with the trial and continuous use of a specific SST in the retail context, the PSA, and estimates retailer benefits from implementing that innovation. In so doing, the study contributes to the nascent area of research on SSTs in the retail sector. Based on theoretical insights from prior SST studies, diffusion of innovation literature, and the TAM, this study develops specific hypotheses regarding the (1) antecedent effects of technological anxiety, novelty seeking, market mavenism, and trust in the retailer on trial of the service innovation; (2) the effects of ease of use, perceived waiting time, and need for interaction on continuous use of the innovation; and (3) the effect of use of innovation on consumer spending at the store. The hypotheses were tested on a sample of 104 actual users of the PSA and 345 nonusers who shopped at the retail store offering the PSA device, one of the early adopters of PSA in Germany. Data were analyzed using logistic regression (antecedents of trial), multiple regression (antecedents of continuous use), and propensity score matching (assessing retailer benefits). Results indicate that factors affecting initial trial are different from those affecting continuous use. More specifically, consumers' trust toward the retailer, novelty seeking, and market mavenism are positively related to trial, while technology anxiety hinders the likelihood of trying the PSA. Perceived ease of use of the device positively impacts continuous use, while consumers' need for interaction in shopping environments reduces the likelihood of continuous use. Importantly, there is evidence on retailer benefits from introducing the innovation since consumers using the PSA tend to spend more during each shopping trip. However, given the high costs of technology, the payback period for recovery of investments in innovation depends largely upon continued use of the innovation by consumers. Important implications are provided for retailers considering investments in new in-store service innovations. The study contributes to the literature through its (1) simultaneous examination of antecedents of trial and continuous usage of a specific SST, (2) the demonstration of economic benefits of SST introduction for the retailer, and (3) contribution to the stream of research on service innovation, as against product innovation.