Military spending and economic growth in South Africa

This paper undertakes an empirical analysis of the economic effects of military spending on the South African economy. It estimates a neo-classical model common in the literature at the level of the macroeconomy and at the level of the manufacturing sector. An attempt is made to improve upon the model by allowing the data to determine the dynamic structure of the model through an ARDL procedure. No significant impact of military spending is found in aggregate, but there is a significant negative impact for the manufacturing sector. This suggests that the cuts in domestic military procurement that have occurred since 1989 could lead to improved economic performance in South Africa through their impact on the manufacturing sector.

The impact of supply chain performance measurement systems on dynamic behaviour in supply chains

The amplification of demand variation up a supply chain widely termed ‘the Bullwhip Effect’ is disruptive, costly and something that supply chain management generally seeks to minimise. Originally attributed to poor system design; deficiencies in policies, organisation structure and delays in material and information flow all lead to sub-optimal reorder point calculation. It has since been attributed to exogenous random factors such as: uncertainties in demand, supply and distribution lead time but these causes are not exclusive as academic and operational studies since have shown that orders and/or inventories can exhibit significant variability even if customer demand and lead time are deterministic. This increase in the range of possible causes of dynamic behaviour indicates that our understanding of the phenomenon is far from complete. One possible, yet previously unexplored, factor that may influence dynamic behaviour in supply chains is the application and operation of supply chain performance measures. Organisations monitoring and responding to their adopted key performance metrics will make operational changes and this action may influence the level of dynamics within the supply chain, possibly degrading the performance of the very system they were intended to measure. In order to explore this a plausible abstraction of the operational responses to the Supply Chain Council’s SCOR® (Supply Chain Operations Reference) model was incorporated into a classic Beer Game distribution representation, using the dynamic discrete event simulation software Simul8. During the simulation the five SCOR Supply Chain Performance Attributes: Reliability, Responsiveness, Flexibility, Cost and Utilisation were continuously monitored and compared to established targets. Operational adjustments to the; reorder point, transportation modes and production capacity (where appropriate) for three independent supply chain roles were made and the degree of dynamic behaviour in the Supply Chain measured, using the ratio of the standard deviation of upstream demand relative to the standard deviation of the downstream demand. Factors employed to build the detailed model include: variable retail demand, order transmission, transportation delays, production delays, capacity constraints demand multipliers and demand averaging periods. Five dimensions of supply chain performance were monitored independently in three autonomous supply chain roles and operational settings adjusted accordingly. Uniqueness of this research stems from the application of the five SCOR performance attributes with modelled operational responses in a dynamic discrete event simulation model. This project makes its primary contribution to knowledge by measuring the impact, on supply chain dynamics, of applying a representative performance measurement system.

Dynamic simulation of chemical plant

A CSSL- type modular FORTRAN package, called ACES, has been developed to assist in the simulation of the dynamic behaviour of chemical plant. ACES can be harnessed, for instance, to simulate the transients in startups or after a throughput change. ACES has benefited from two existing simulators. The structure was adapted from ICL SLAM and most plant models originate in DYFLO. The latter employs sequential modularisation which is not always applicable to chemical engineering problems. A novel device of twice- round execution enables ACES to achieve general simultaneous modularisation. During the FIRST ROUND, STATE-VARIABLES are retrieved from the integrator and local calculations performed. During the SECOND ROUND, fresh derivatives are estimated and stored for simultaneous integration. ACES further includes a version of DIFSUB, a variable-step integrator capable of handling stiff differential systems. ACES is highly formalised . It does not use pseudo steady- state approximations and excludes inconsistent and arbitrary features of DYFLO. Built- in debug traps make ACES robust. ACES shows generality, flexibility, versatility and portability, and is very convenient to use. It undertakes substantial housekeeping behind the scenes and thus minimises the detailed involvement of the user. ACES provides a working set of defaults for simulation to proceed as far as possible. Built- in interfaces allow for reactions and user supplied algorithms to be incorporated . New plant models can be easily appended. Boundary- value problems and optimisation may be tackled using the RERUN feature. ACES is file oriented; a STATE can be saved in a readable form and reactivated later. Thus piecewise simulation is possible. ACES has been illustrated and verified to a large extent using some literature-based examples. Actual plant tests are desirable however to complete the verification of the library. Interaction and graphics are recommended for future work.

Managing the dynamic configuration of enterprises

Due to environmental changes and business trends such as globalisation, outsourcing and virtualisation, more and more companies get involved in business activities that are outside their direct control. This typically occurs by entering into collaborative relationships and joint ventures with specialised companies in order to fulfil the demands of customers quickly (DiMaggio, 2001). Organisational structures that results from such collaborative relationships and joint ventures are referred to in this paper as enterprises and the management of them known as enterprise management. The authors use the definition of the European Commission (2003) that defines an enterprise as “… an entity, regardless of its legal form … including partnerships or associations regularly engaged in economic activities.” Therefore in its most simple form an enterprise could be a single integrated company. However, findings from this research show that enterprises can also be made up of parts of different companies and the structure of the enterprise is contingent upon a variety of different factors. The success of the enterprise as a collaborative venture depends on the ability of companies to intermediate their internal core competencies into other participating companies’ value streams and simultaneously outsource their own peripheral activities to companies that can perform them quicker, cheaper, and more effectively (Lal et al., 1995). In other words, the peripheral activities of one member-company must be complemented by a core competence of another member-company within an overall enterprise.

Strategy, IT and dynamic change in enterprises

This paper explores the importance of collaboration between different types of organizations within an enterprise. To achieve successful collaboration requires both endogenous and exogenous factors of each organization to be considered and a shared meta-strategy supported by shared cross-organizational processes and technology. A rolling business plan would periodically review, assess and reposition each organization within this meta-strategy according to how well they have contributed. We show that recent technological advances have made organizational structures more agile, organizational infra-structure more connected and the sharing of real-time information an operational reality; we also discuss the challenges and risks.

Smart structure sensors based on embedded fibre Bragg grating arrays in aluminium alloy matrix by ultrasonic consolidation

Smart structure sensors based on embedded fibre Bragg grating (FBG) arrays in aluminium alloy matrix by ultrasonic consolidation (UC) technique have been proposed and demonstrated successfully. The temperature, loading and bending responses of the embedded FBG arrays have been systematically characterized. The embedded FBGs exhibit an average temperature sensitivity of ~36 pm °C-1, which is three times higher than that of normal FBGs, a bending sensitivity of 0.73 nm/m-1 and a loading responsivity of ~0.1 nm kg-1 within the dynamic range from 0 kg to 3 kg. These initial experimental results clearly demonstrate that the UC produced metal matrix structures can be embedded with FBG sensor arrays to become smart structures with capabilities to monitor the structure operation and health conditions in applications.

Capital markets and the market structure of foreign investments

Contrary to the long-received theory of FDI, interest rates or rates of return can motivate foreign direct investment (FDI) in concert with the benefits of direct ownership. Thus, access to investor capital and capital markets is a vital component of the multinational’s competitive market structure. Moreover, multinationals can use their superior financial capacity as a competitive advantage in exploiting FDI opportunities in dynamic markets. They can also mitigate higher levels of foreign business risks under dynamic conditions by shifting more financial risk to creditors in the host economy. Furthermore, the investor’s expectation of foreign business risk necessarily commands a risk premium for exposing their equity to foreign market risk. Multinationals can modify the profit maximization strategy of their foreign subsidiaries to maximize growth or profits to generate this risk premium. In this context, we investigate how foreign subsidiaries manage their capital funding, business risk, and profit strategies with a diverse sample of 8,000 matched parents and foreign subsidiary accounts from multiple industries in 38 countries.We find that interest rates, asset prices, and expectations in capital markets have a significant effect on the capital movements of foreign subsidiaries. We also find that foreign subsidiaries mitigate their exposure to foreign business risk by modifying their capital structure and debt maturity. Further, we show how the operating strategy of foreign subsidiaries affects their preference for growth or profit maximization. We further show that superior shareholder value, which is a vital link for access to capital for funding foreign expansion in open market economies, is achieved through maintaining stability in the rate of growth and good asset utilization.

Dynamic simulation of chemical plant

This thesis describes the design and implementation of a new dynamic simulator called DASP. It is a computer program package written in standard Fortran 77 for the dynamic analysis and simulation of chemical plants. Its main uses include the investigation of a plant's response to disturbances, the determination of the optimal ranges and sensitivities of controller settings and the simulation of the startup and shutdown of chemical plants. The design and structure of the program and a number of features incorporated into it combine to make DASP an effective tool for dynamic simulation. It is an equation-oriented dynamic simulator but the model equations describing the user's problem are generated from in-built model equation library. A combination of the structuring of the model subroutines, the concept of a unit module, and the use of the connection matrix of the problem given by the user have been exploited to achieve this objective. The Executive program has a structure similar to that of a CSSL-type simulator. DASP solves a system of differential equations coupled to nonlinear algebraic equations using an advanced mixed equation solver. The strategy used in formulating the model equations makes it possible to obtain the steady state solution of the problem using the same model equations. DASP can handle state and time events in an efficient way and this includes the modification of the flowsheet. DASP is highly portable and this has been demonstrated by running it on a number of computers with only trivial modifications. The program runs on a microcomputer with 640 kByte of memory. It is a semi-interactive program, with the bulk of all input data given in pre-prepared data files with communication with the user is via an interactive terminal. Using the features in-built in the package, the user can view or modify the values of any input data, variables and parameters in the model, and modify the structure of the flowsheet of the problem during a simulation session. The program has been demonstrated and verified using a number of example problems.

Combining data driven programming with component based software development:with applications in geovisualisation and dynamic data driven application systems

Software development methodologies are becoming increasingly abstract, progressing from low level assembly and implementation languages such as C and Ada, to component based approaches that can be used to assemble applications using technologies such as JavaBeans and the .NET framework. Meanwhile, model driven approaches emphasise the role of higher level models and notations, and embody a process of automatically deriving lower level representations and concrete software implementations. The relationship between data and software is also evolving. Modern data formats are becoming increasingly standardised, open and empowered in order to support a growing need to share data in both academia and industry. Many contemporary data formats, most notably those based on XML, are self-describing, able to specify valid data structure and content, and can also describe data manipulations and transformations. Furthermore, while applications of the past have made extensive use of data, the runtime behaviour of future applications may be driven by data, as demonstrated by the field of dynamic data driven application systems. The combination of empowered data formats and high level software development methodologies forms the basis of modern game development technologies, which drive software capabilities and runtime behaviour using empowered data formats describing game content. While low level libraries provide optimised runtime execution, content data is used to drive a wide variety of interactive and immersive experiences. This thesis describes the Fluid project, which combines component based software development and game development technologies in order to define novel component technologies for the description of data driven component based applications. The thesis makes explicit contributions to the fields of component based software development and visualisation of spatiotemporal scenes, and also describes potential implications for game development technologies. The thesis also proposes a number of developments in dynamic data driven application systems in order to further empower the role of data in this field.

The chemical structure and mechanical properties of phenolic resins and related polymers

Paper-based phenolic laminates are used extensively in the electrical industry. Many small components are fabricated from these materials by the process known as punching. Recently an investigation was carried out to study the effect of processing variables on the punching properties. It was concluded that further work would be justified and that this should include a critical examination of the resin properties in a more controlled and systematic manner. In this investigation an attempt has been made to assess certain features of the resin structure in terms of thermomechanical properties. The number of crosslinks in the system was controlled using resins based on phenol and para-cresol formulations. Intramolecular hydrogen bonding effects were examined using substituted resins and a synthetically derived phenol based on 1,3-di-(o-hydroxyphenyl) propane.. A resin system was developed using the Friedel Crafts reaction to examine inter-molecular hydrogen bonding at the resin-paper interface. The punching properties of certain selected resins were assessed on a qualitative basis. In addition flexural and dynamic mechanical properties were determined in a general study of the structure-property relationships of these materials. It has been shown that certain features of the resin structure significantly influenced mechanical properties. :F'urther, it was noted that there is a close relationship between punching properties, mechanical damping and flexural strain. This work includes a critical examination of the curing mechanism and views are postulated in an attempt to extend knowledge in this area of the work. Finally, it is argued that future work should be based on a synthetic approach and that dynamic mechanical testing would provide a powerful tool In developing a deeper understanding of the resin fine structure.

Self-mixing-based demodulation technique for dynamic fiber Bragg grating strain sensors

We report a novel demodulation scheme for the detection of small Bragg wavelength shifts in a fiber Bragg grating strain sensor by exploiting the optical feedback reflected from the grating structure back into a 1310 nm laser diode integrating a photodiode. The dynamic strain generated by a mechanical vibrator is applied transversely to the fiber Bragg grating and the desired longitudinal strain values inferred from the detected sawtooth-like optical feedback signals. Preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility of this demodulation technique for strain measurement which could be further extended to fiber Bragg grating-based sensors for the detection of different measurands in general.

Temporal finite elements in the dynamic analysis of structures

This thesis demonstrates that the use of finite elements need not be confined to space alone, but that they may also be used in the time domain, It is shown that finite element methods may be used successfully to obtain the response of systems to applied forces, including, for example, the accelerations in a tall structure subjected to an earthquake shock. It is further demonstrated that at least one of these methods may be considered to be a practical alternative to more usual methods of solution. A detailed investigation of the accuracy and stability of finite element solutions is included, and methods of applications to both single- and multi-degree of freedom systems are described. Solutions using two different temporal finite elements are compared with those obtained by conventional methods, and a comparison of computation times for the different methods is given. The application of finite element methods to distributed systems is described, using both separate discretizations in space and time, and a combined space-time discretization. The inclusion of both viscous and hysteretic damping is shown to add little to the difficulty of the solution. Temporal finite elements are also seen to be of considerable interest when applied to non-linear systems, both when the system parameters are time-dependent and also when they are functions of displacement. Solutions are given for many different examples, and the computer programs used for the finite element methods are included in an Appendix.

Anatomical correlates of dynamic auditory processing:relationship to literacy during early adolescence

Adults show great variation in their auditory skills, such as being able to discriminate between foreign speech-sounds. Previous research has demonstrated that structural features of auditory cortex can predict auditory abilities; here we are interested in the maturation of 2-Hz frequency-modulation (FM) detection, a task thought to tap into mechanisms underlying language abilities. We hypothesized that an individual's FM threshold will correlate with gray-matter density in left Heschl's gyrus, and that this function-structure relationship will change through adolescence. To test this hypothesis, we collected anatomical magnetic resonance imaging data from participants who were tested and scanned at three time points: at 10, 11.5 and 13 years of age. Participants judged which of two tones contained FM; the modulation depth was adjusted using an adaptive staircase procedure and their threshold was calculated based on the geometric mean of the last eight reversals. Using voxel-based morphometry, we found that FM threshold was significantly correlated with gray-matter density in left Heschl's gyrus at the age of 10 years, but that this correlation weakened with age. While there were no differences between girls and boys at Times 1 and 2, at Time 3 there was a relationship between gray-matter density in left Heschl's gyrus in boys but not in girls. Taken together, our results confirm that the structure of the auditory cortex can predict temporal processing abilities, namely that gray-matter density in left Heschl's gyrus can predict 2-Hz FM detection threshold. This ability is dependent on the processing of sounds changing over time, a skill believed necessary for speech processing. We tested this assumption and found that FM threshold significantly correlated with spelling abilities at Time 1, but that this correlation was found only in boys. This correlation decreased at Time 2, and at Time 3 we found a significant correlation between reading and FM threshold, but again, only in boys. We examined the sex differences in both the imaging and behavioral data taking into account pubertal stages, and found that the correlation between FM threshold and spelling was strongest pre-pubertally, and the correlation between FM threshold and gray-matter density in left Heschl's gyrus was strongest mid-pubertally.

The relationship between measurement method and corneal structure on apparent intraocular pressure in glaucoma and ocular hypertension

Purpose: To analyse the relationship between measured intraocular pressure (IOP) and central corneal thickness (CCT), corneal hysteresis (CH) and corneal resistance factor (CRF) in ocular hypertension (OHT), primary open-angle (POAG) and normal tension glaucoma (NTG) eyes using multiple tonometry devices. Methods: Right eyes of patients diagnosed with OHT (n=47), normal tension glaucoma (n=17) and POAG (n=50) were assessed, IOP was measured in random order with four devices: Goldmann applanation tonometry (GAT); Pascal(R) dynamic contour tonometer (DCT); Reichert(R) ocular response analyser (ORA); and Tono-Pen(R) XL. CCT was then measured using a hand-held ultrasonic pachymeter. CH and CRF were derived from the air pressure to corneal reflectance relationship of the ORA data. Results: Compared to the GAT, the Tonopen and ORA Goldmann equivalent (IOPg) and corneal compensated (IOPcc) measured higher IOP readings (F=19.351, p<0.001), particularly in NTG (F=12.604, p<0.001). DCT was closest to Goldmann IOP and had the lowest variance. CCT was significantly different (F=8.305, p<0.001) between the 3 conditions as was CH (F=6.854, p=0.002) and CRF (F=19.653, p<0.001). IOPcc measures were not affected by CCT. The DCT was generally not affected by corneal biomechanical factors. Conclusion: This study suggests that as the true pressure of the eye cannot be determined non-invasively, measurements from any tonometer should be interpreted with care, particularly when alterations in the corneal tissue are suspected.

Managing the dynamic configuration of enterprises

Due to environmental changes and business trends such as globalisation, outsourcing and virtualisation, more and more companies get involved in business activities that are outside their direct control. This typically occurs by entering into collaborative relationships and joint ventures with specialised companies in order to fulfil the demands of customers quickly (DiMaggio, 2001). Organisational structures that results from such collaborative relationships and joint ventures are referred to in this paper as enterprises and the management of them known as enterprise management. The authors use the definition of the European Commission (2003) that defines an enterprise as “… an entity, regardless of its legal form … including partnerships or associations regularly engaged in economic activities.” Therefore in its most simple form an enterprise could be a single integrated company. However, findings from this research show that enterprises can also be made up of parts of different companies and the structure of the enterprise is contingent upon a variety of different factors. The success of the enterprise as a collaborative venture depends on the ability of companies to intermediate their internal core competencies into other participating companies’ value streams and simultaneously outsource their own peripheral activities to companies that can perform them quicker, cheaper, and more effectively (Lal et al., 1995). In other words, the peripheral activities of one member-company must be complemented by a core competence of another member-company within an overall enterprise.