Emulation of dynamic computer models with multivariate output

This preliminary report describes work carried out as part of work package 1.2 of the MUCM research project. The report is split in two parts: the ?rst part (Sections 1 and 2) summarises the state of the art in emulation of computer models, while the second presents some initial work on the emulation of dynamic models. In the ?rst part, we describe the basics of emulation, introduce the notation and put together the key results for the emulation of models with single and multiple outputs, with or without the use of mean function. In the second part, we present preliminary results on the chaotic Lorenz 63 model. We look at emulation of a single time step, and repeated application of the emulator for sequential predic- tion. After some design considerations, the emulator is compared with the exact simulator on a number of runs to assess its performance. Several general issues related to emulating dynamic models are raised and discussed. Current work on the larger Lorenz 96 model (40 variables) is presented in the context of dimension reduction, with results to be provided in a follow-up report. The notation used in this report are summarised in appendix.

Influence of reaction atmosphere (H2O, N2, H2, CO2, CO) on fluidized-bed fast pyrolysis of biomass using detailed tar vapor chemistry in computational fluid dynamics

Secondary pyrolysis in fluidized bed fast pyrolysis of biomass is the focus of this work. A novel computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model coupled with a comprehensive chemistry scheme (134 species and 4169 reactions, in CHEMKIN format) has been developed to investigate this complex phenomenon. Previous results from a transient three-dimensional model of primary pyrolysis were used for the source terms of primary products in this model. A parametric study of reaction atmospheres (H2O, N2, H2, CO2, CO) has been performed. For the N2 and H2O atmosphere, results of the model compared favorably to experimentally obtained yields after the temperature was adjusted to a value higher than that used in experiments. One notable deviation versus experiments is pyrolytic water yield and yield of higher hydrocarbons. The model suggests a not overly strong impact of the reaction atmosphere. However, both chemical and physical effects were observed. Most notably, effects could be seen on the yield of various compounds, temperature profile throughout the reactor system, residence time, radical concentration, and turbulent intensity. At the investigated temperature (873 K), turbulent intensity appeared to have the strongest influence on liquid yield. With the aid of acceleration techniques, most importantly dimension reduction, chemistry agglomeration, and in-situ tabulation, a converged solution could be obtained within a reasonable time (∼30 h). As such, a new potentially useful method has been suggested for numerical analysis of fast pyrolysis.

Comprehensive secondary pyrolysis in fluidized-bed fast pyrolysis of biomass, a fluid dynamics based modelling effort

Homogenous secondary pyrolysis is category of reactions following the primary pyrolysis and presumed important for fast pyrolysis. For the comprehensive chemistry and fluid dynamics, a probability density functional (PDF) approach is used; with a kinetic scheme comprising 134 species and 4169 reactions being implemented. With aid of acceleration techniques, most importantly Dimension Reduction, Chemistry Agglomeration and In-situ Tabulation (ISAT), a solution within reasonable time was obtained. More work is required; however, a solution for levoglucosan (C6H10O5) being fed through the inlet with fluidizing gas at 500 °C, has been obtained. 88.6% of the levoglucosan remained non-decomposed, and 19 different decomposition product species were found above 0.01% by weight. A homogenous secondary pyrolysis scheme proposed can thus be implemented in a CFD environment and acceleration techniques can speed-up the calculation for application in engineering settings.

Improved data visualisation through multiple dissimilarity modelling

Popular dimension reduction and visualisation algorithms rely on the assumption that input dissimilarities are typically Euclidean, for instance Metric Multidimensional Scaling, t-distributed Stochastic Neighbour Embedding and the Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model. It is well known that this assumption does not hold for most datasets and often high-dimensional data sits upon a manifold of unknown global geometry. We present a method for improving the manifold charting process, coupled with Elastic MDS, such that we no longer assume that the manifold is Euclidean, or of any particular structure. We draw on the benefits of different dissimilarity measures allowing for the relative responsibilities, under a linear combination, to drive the visualisation process.