Predicting and diagnosing faults in wastewater treatment process by Bayesian Belief Networks

Diagnosing faults in wastewater treatment, like diagnosis of most problems, requires bi-directional plausible reasoning. This means that both predictive (from causes to symptoms) and diagnostic (from symptoms to causes) inferences have to be made, depending on the evidence available, in reasoning for the final diagnosis. The use of computer technology for the purpose of diagnosing faults in the wastewater process has been explored, and a rule-based expert system was initiated. It was found that such an approach has serious limitations in its ability to reason bi-directionally, which makes it unsuitable for diagnosing tasks under the conditions of uncertainty. The probabilistic approach known as Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNS) was then critically reviewed, and was found to be well-suited for diagnosis under uncertainty. The theory and application of BBNs are outlined. A full-scale BBN for the diagnosis of faults in a wastewater treatment plant based on the activated sludge system has been developed in this research. Results from the BBN show good agreement with the predictions of wastewater experts. It can be concluded that the BBNs are far superior to rule-based systems based on certainty factors in their ability to diagnose faults and predict systems in complex operating systems having inherently uncertain behaviour.

The influence of patient and doctor gender on diagnosing coronary heart disease

Using novel methods, this paper explores sources of uncertainty and gender bias in primary care doctors' diagnostic decision-making about coronary heart disease (CHD). Claims about gendered consultation styles and quality of care are re-examined, along with the adequacy of CHD models for women. Randomly selected doctors in the UK and the US (n=112, 56 per country, stratified by gender) were shown standardised videotaped vignettes of actors portraying patients with CHD. Patients' age, gender, ethnicity and social class were varied systematically. During interviews, doctors gave free-recall accounts of their decision-making, which were analysed to determine patient and doctor gender effects. We found differences in male and female doctors' responses to different types of patient information. Female doctors recall more patient cues overall, particularly about history presentation, and particularly amongst women. Male doctors appear less affected by patient gender but both male and especially female doctors take more account of male patients' age, and consider more age-related disease possibilities for men than women. Findings highlight the need for better integration of knowledge about female presentations within accepted CHD risk models, and do not support the contention that women receive better-quality care from female doctors.

Diagnosing autism spectrum disorder:who will get a DSM-5 diagnosis?

Background Introduction of proposed criteria for DSM-5 Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) has raised concerns that some individuals currently meeting diagnostic criteria for Pervasive Developmental Disorder (PDD; DSM-IV-TR/ICD-10) will not qualify for a diagnosis under the proposed changes. To date, reports of sensitivity and specificity of the new criteria have been inconsistent across studies. No study has yet considered how changes at the 'sub domain' level might affect overall sensitivity and specificity, and few have included individuals of different ages and ability levels. Methods A set of DSM-5 ASD algorithms were developed using items from the Diagnostic Interview for Social and Communication Disorders (DISCO). The number of items required for each DSM-5 subdomain was defined either according to criteria specified by DSM-5 (Initial Algorithm), a statistical approach (Youden J Algorithm), or to minimise the number of false positives while maximising sensitivity (Modified Algorithm). The algorithms were designed, tested and compared in two independent samples (Sample 1, N = 82; Sample 2, N = 115), while sensitivity was assessed across age and ability levels in an additional dataset of individuals with an ICD-10 PDD diagnosis (Sample 3, N = 190). Results Sensitivity was highest in the Initial Algorithm, which had the poorest specificity. Although Youden J had excellent specificity, sensitivity was significantly lower than in the Modified Algorithm, which had both good sensitivity and specificity. Relaxing the domain A rules improved sensitivity of the Youden J Algorithm, but it remained less sensitive than the Modified Algorithm. Moreover, this was the only algorithm with variable sensitivity across age. All versions of the algorithm performed well across ability level. Conclusions This study demonstrates that good levels of both sensitivity and specificity can be achieved for a diagnostic algorithm adhering to the DSM-5 criteria that is suitable across age and ability level. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2013 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

A brief review of magnetic fields from the human visual system

Both the eye and brain generate magnetic fields when stimulated with a variety of visual cues. These magnetic fields can be measured with a magnetometer; a device which uses superconducting technology. The application of this technique to measuring the magnetooculogram, magnetoretinogram and visually evoked fields from the brain is described. So far the main use of this technique has been in pure research. Its potential for diagnosing ocular and neurological diseases is discussed.

Real-time process plant fault diagnosis

Operators can become confused while diagnosing faults in process plant while in operation. This may prevent remedial actions being taken before hazardous consequences can occur. The work in this thesis proposes a method to aid plant operators in systematically finding the causes of any fault in the process plant. A computer aided fault diagnosis package has been developed for use on the widely available IBM PC compatible microcomputer. The program displays a coloured diagram of a fault tree on the VDU of the microcomputer, so that the operator can see the link between the fault and its causes. The consequences of the fault and the causes of the fault are also shown to provide a warning of what may happen if the fault is not remedied. The cause and effect data needed by the package are obtained from a hazard and operability (HAZOP) study on the process plant. The result of the HAZOP study is recorded as cause and symptom equations which are translated into a data structure and stored in the computer as a file for the package to access. Probability values are assigned to the events that constitute the basic causes of any deviation. From these probability values, the a priori probabilities of occurrence of other events are evaluated. A top-down recursive algorithm, called TDRA, for evaluating the probability of every event in a fault tree has been developed. From the a priori probabilities, the conditional probabilities of the causes of the fault are then evaluated using Bayes' conditional probability theorem. The posteriori probability values could then be used by the operators to check in an orderly manner the cause of the fault. The package has been tested using the results of a HAZOP study on a pilot distillation plant. The results from the test show how easy it is to trace the chain of events that leads to the primary cause of a fault. This method could be applied in a real process environment.

Designing a methodology for an office communication and information system:for executives in the Malaysian public sector : the Prime Minister's office

Modern managers are under tremendous pressure in attempting to fulfil a profoundly complex managerial task, that of handling information resources. Information management, an intricate process requiring a high measure of human cognition and discernment, involves matching a manager's lack of information processing capacity against his information needs, with voluminous information at his disposal. The nature of the task will undoubtedly become more complex in the case of a large organisation. Management of large-scale organisations is therefore an exceedingly challenging prospect for any manager to be faced with. A system that supports executive information needs will help reduce managerial and informational mismatches. In the context of the Malaysian public sector, the task of overall management lies with the Prime Minister and the Cabinet. The Prime Minister's Office is presently supporting the Prime Minister's information and managerial needs, although not without various shortcomings. The rigid formalised structure predominant of the Malaysian public sector, so opposed to dynamic treatment of problematic issues as faced by that sector, further escalates the managerial and organisational problem of coping with a state of complexity. The principal features of the research are twofold: the development of a methodology for diagnosing the problem organisation' and the design of an office system. The methodological development is done in the context of the Malaysian public sector, and aims at understanding the complexity of its communication and control situation. The outcome is a viable model of the public sector. `Design', on the other hand, is developing a syntax or language for office systems which provides an alternative to current views on office systems. The design is done with reference to, rather than for, the Prime Minister's Office. The desirable outcome will be an office model called Office Communication and Information System (OCIS).

Investigation into visual defects attributed to Vigabatrin

Vigabatrin (VGB) is a transaminase inhibitor that elicits its anitepileptic effect by increasing GABA concentrations in the brain and retina. - Assess whether certain factors predispose patients to develop severe visual field loss. - Develop a sensitive algorithm for investigating the progression of visual field loss. - Determine the most sensitive clinical regimen for diagnosing VGB-attributed visual field loss. - Investigate whether the reports of central retinal sparing are accurate. The investigations have resulted in a number of significant findings: - The anatomical evidence in combination with the pattern of visual field loss suggests that the damage induced by VGB therapy occurs at retinal level, and is most likely a toxic effect. - The quantitative algorithm, designed within the course of this investigation, provided increased sensitivity in determining the severity of visual field loss. - Maximum VGB dose predisposes patients to develop severe visual field loss. - The SITA Standard algorithm was found to be as sensitive and significantly faster, in diagnosing visual field defects attributed to VGB, when compared to the Full Threshold algorithm. The Full Threshold was found to be the most repeatable between visits. - The normal SWAP 10-2 database provided an effective method of differentiating SWAP defects. - SWAP, FDT and the mfERG have increased sensitivity in detecting visual field loss attributed to VGB. The pattern of visual field loss from these investigations suggests that VGB produces a diffuse effect across the retina including subtle central abnormalities and more severe peripheral defects. - Abnormalities detected using the mfERG have suggested that VGB adversely affects the photoreceptors Müller, amacrine and ganglion cells in the retina. An urgent review of the manufacturers recommended maximum dose for VGB is required.

Embedded multiplexed polymer optical fiber sensor for esophageal manometry

There is a growing interest for esophageal measurements which can provide important and reliable data when diagnosing the motor function of the sphincters and the esophageal body. Biocompatibility, sensing resolution and the comfort of the patient are key parameters for manometric sensing systems. A new sensing approach which could fulfill all these needs is presented in this paper consisting of an embedded polymer fiber sensor, based on multiplexed fiber Bragg gratings. A response to a radial pressure almost 6 times that of a comparable silica fiber based sensor is obtained.

Patients’ and health professionals’ views and experiences of atrial fibrillation and oral-anticoagulant therapy:a qualitative meta-synthesis

Objective - Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients are prescribed oral-anticoagulant (OAC) therapy, often warfarin, to reduce stroke risk. We explored existing qualitative evidence about patients’ and health professionals’ experiences of OAC therapy. Methods - Systematic searches of eight bibliographic databases were conducted. Quality was appraised using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme tool and data from ten studies were synthesised qualitatively. Results - Four third-order constructs, emerged from the final step in the analysis process: (1) diagnosing AF and the communication of information, (2) deciding on OAC therapy, (3) challenges revolving around patient issues, and (4) healthcare challenges. Synthesis uncovered perspectives that could not be achieved through individual studies. Conclusion - Physicians’ and patients’ experiences present a dichotomy of opinion on decision-making, which requires further exploration and changes in practice. Outcomes of workload pressure on both health professionals and patients should be investigated. The need for on-going support and education to patients and physicians is critical to achieve best practice and treatment adherence. Practice implications - Such research could encourage health professionals to understand and attend better to the needs and concerns of the patient. Additionally these findings can be used to inform researchers and healthcare providers in developing educational interventions with both patients and health professionals.

The predictive ability of clinical tests for contact lens induced dry eye

Approximately half of current contact lens wearers suffer from dryness and discomfort, particularly towards the end of the day. Contact lens practitioners have a number of dry eye tests available to help them to predict which of their patients may be at risk of contact lens drop out and advise them accordingly. This thesis set out to rationalize them to see if any are of more diagnostic significance than others. This doctorate has found: (1) The Keratograph, a device which permits an automated, examiner independent technique for measuring non invasive tear break up time (NITBUT) measured NITBUT consistently shorter than measurements recorded with the Tearscope. When measuring central corneal curvature the spherical equivalent power of the cornea was measured as being significantly flatter than with a validated automated keratometer. (2) Non-invasive and invasive tear break-up times significantly correlated to each other, but not the other tear metrics. Symptomology, assessed using the OSDI questionnaire, correlated more with those tests indicating possible damage to the ocular surface (including LWE, LIPCOF and conjunctival staining) than with tests of either tear volume or stability. Cluster analysis showed some statistically significant groups of patients with different sign and symptom profiles. The largest cluster demonstrated poor tear quality with both non-invasive and invasive tests, low tear volume and more symptoms. (3) Care should be taken in fitting patients new to contact lenses if they have a NITBUT less than 10s or an OSDI comfort rating greater than 4.2 as they are more likely to drop-out within the first 6 months. Cluster analysis was not found to be beneficial in predicting which patients will succeed with lenses and which will not. A combination of the OSDI questionnaire and a NITBUT measurement was most useful both in diagnosing dry eye and in predicting contact lens drop out.

Embedded multiplexed polymer optical fiber sensor for esophageal manometry

There is a growing interest for esophageal measurements which can provide important and reliable data when diagnosing the motor function of the sphincters and the esophageal body. Biocompatibility, sensing resolution and the comfort of the patient are key parameters for manometric sensing systems. A new sensing approach which could fulfill all these needs is presented in this paper consisting of an embedded polymer fiber sensor, based on multiplexed fiber Bragg gratings. A response to a radial pressure almost 6 times that of a comparable silica fiber based sensor is obtained.

The influence of patient's age on clinical decision-making about coronary heart disease in the USA and the UK

This paper examines UK and US primary care doctors' decision-making about older (aged 75 years) and midlife (aged 55 years) patients presenting with coronary heart disease (CHD). Using an analytic approach based on conceptualising clinical decision-making as a classification process, it explores the ways in which doctors' cognitive processes contribute to ageism in health-care at three key decision points during consultations. In each country, 56 randomly selected doctors were shown videotaped vignettes of actors portraying patients with CHD. The patients' ages (55 or 75 years), gender, ethnicity and social class were varied systematically. During the interviews, doctors gave free-recall accounts of their decision-making. The results do not establish that there was substantial ageism in the doctors' decisions, but rather suggest that diagnostic processes pay insufficient attention to the significance of older patients' age and its association with the likelihood of co-morbidity and atypical disease presentations. The doctors also demonstrated more limited use of 'knowledge structures' when diagnosing older than midlife patients. With respect to interventions, differences in the national health-care systems rather than patients' age accounted for the differences in doctors' decisions. US doctors were significantly more concerned about the potential for adverse outcomes if important diagnoses were untreated, while UK general practitioners cited greater difficulty in accessing diagnostic tests.

Universality in the merging dynamics of parametric active contours:a study in MRI based lung segmentation

Measurement of lung ventilation is one of the most reliable techniques in diagnosing pulmonary diseases. The time-consuming and bias-prone traditional methods using hyperpolarized H 3He and 1H magnetic resonance imageries have recently been improved by an automated technique based on 'multiple active contour evolution'. This method involves a simultaneous evolution of multiple initial conditions, called 'snakes', eventually leading to their 'merging' and is entirely independent of the shapes and sizes of snakes or other parametric details. The objective of this paper is to show, through a theoretical analysis, that the functional dynamics of merging as depicted in the active contour method has a direct analogue in statistical physics and this explains its 'universality'. We show that the multiple active contour method has an universal scaling behaviour akin to that of classical nucleation in two spatial dimensions. We prove our point by comparing the numerically evaluated exponents with an equivalent thermodynamic model. © IOP Publishing Ltd and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft.

Investigating the influence of African American and African Caribbean race on primary care doctors' decision making about depression

This paper explores differences in how primary care doctors process the clinical presentation of depression by African American and African-Caribbean patients compared with white patients in the US and the UK. The aim is to gain a better understanding of possible pathways by which racial disparities arise in depression care. One hundred and eight doctors described their thought processes after viewing video recorded simulated patients presenting with identical symptoms strongly suggestive of depression. These descriptions were analysed using the CliniClass system, which captures information about micro-components of clinical decision making and permits a systematic, structured and detailed analysis of how doctors arrive at diagnostic, intervention and management decisions. Video recordings of actors portraying black (both African American and African-Caribbean) and white (both White American and White British) male and female patients (aged 55 years and 75 years) were presented to doctors randomly selected from the Massachusetts Medical Society list and from Surrey/South West London and West Midlands National Health Service lists, stratified by country (US v.UK), gender, and years of clinical experience (less v. very experienced). Findings demonstrated little evidence of bias affecting doctors' decision making processes, with the exception of less attention being paid to the potential outcomes associated with different treatment options for African American compared with White American patients in the US. Instead, findings suggest greater clinical uncertainty in diagnosing depression amongst black compared with white patients, particularly in the UK. This was evident in more potential diagnoses. There was also a tendency for doctors in both countries to focus more on black patients' physical rather than psychological symptoms and to identify endocrine problems, most often diabetes, as a presenting complaint for them. This suggests that doctors in both countries have a less well developed mental model of depression for black compared with white patients. © 2014 The Authors.