Why are aggregate equity payouts pro-cyclical?

We use two general equilibrium models to explain why changes in the external economic environment result in pro-cyclical aggregate dividend payout behavior. Both models that we consider endogenize low elasticity of investment. The first model incorporates capital adjustment costs, while the second one assumes that risk-averse managers maximize their own objective function rather than shareholder wealth. We show that, while both models generate pro-cyclical aggregate dividends, a feature consistent with the observed business-cycle pattern of payouts from well-diversified portfolios, the second model provides a more likely explanation for this effect. Our findings emphasize the importance of incorporating agency conflicts when considering the relationship between the external economic environment and the financial behavior of businesses.

A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Canonical solution groups of a homomorphism : manipulator kinematics, nonparametric regression and distributed object systems

The kinematic mapping of a rigid open-link manipulator is a homomorphism between Lie groups. The homomorphisrn has solution groups that act on an inverse kinematic solution element. A canonical representation of solution group operators that act on a solution element of three and seven degree-of-freedom (do!) dextrous manipulators is determined by geometric analysis. Seven canonical solution groups are determined for the seven do! Robotics Research K-1207 and Hollerbach arms. The solution element of a dextrous manipulator is a collection of trivial fibre bundles with solution fibres homotopic to the Torus. If fibre solutions are parameterised by a scalar, a direct inverse funct.ion that maps the scalar and Cartesian base space coordinates to solution element fibre coordinates may be defined. A direct inverse pararneterisation of a solution element may be approximated by a local linear map generated by an inverse augmented Jacobian correction of a linear interpolation. The action of canonical solution group operators on a local linear approximation of the solution element of inverse kinematics of dextrous manipulators generates cyclical solutions. The solution representation is proposed as a model of inverse kinematic transformations in primate nervous systems. Simultaneous calibration of a composition of stereo-camera and manipulator kinematic models is under-determined by equi-output parameter groups in the composition of stereo-camera and Denavit Hartenberg (DH) rnodels. An error measure for simultaneous calibration of a composition of models is derived and parameter subsets with no equi-output groups are determined by numerical experiments to simultaneously calibrate the composition of homogeneous or pan-tilt stereo-camera with DH models. For acceleration of exact Newton second-order re-calibration of DH parameters after a sequential calibration of stereo-camera and DH parameters, an optimal numerical evaluation of DH matrix first order and second order error derivatives with respect to a re-calibration error function is derived, implemented and tested. A distributed object environment for point and click image-based tele-command of manipulators and stereo-cameras is specified and implemented that supports rapid prototyping of numerical experiments in distributed system control. The environment is validated by a hierarchical k-fold cross validated calibration to Cartesian space of a radial basis function regression correction of an affine stereo model. Basic design and performance requirements are defined for scalable virtual micro-kernels that broker inter-Java-virtual-machine remote method invocations between components of secure manageable fault-tolerant open distributed agile Total Quality Managed ISO 9000+ conformant Just in Time manufacturing systems.

The mechanisms of melt stabilisation of polyolefins

The effects of melt stabilisers on the oxidative degradation of polyolefins (polypropylene, low density polyethylene) have been studied under a variety of processing conditions . The changes in the both chemical and physical properties of unstabilised polymers occurring during processing were found to be strongly dependent on the amount of oxygen present in the mixer. 2 ,6 ,3' ,5' -tetra-tert-butyl-4'-phenoxy-4-methylene-2, 5-cyclohexadiene-1- one (galvinoxyl), iodine, nitroxyl radicals and cupric stearate were found to be very efficient melt stabilisers particularly when processed in a restricted amount of air. The mechanisms of their melt stabilising action have been investigated and a common cyclical regenerative mechanism involving both chain-breaking electron acceptor (CB-A) and chain-breaking electron donor (CB-D) antioxidant activity was found to be involved in each case. 2,6,3',5'-tetra-tert-butyl-4'-hydroxy phenyl-4-rrethylene-2,5-cyclohexadiene- 1-one (hydrogalvinoxy1), 4-hydroxy, 2,2,6, 6-tetra methyl-N-hydroxy piperidine and hydrogen iodide were formed together with olefinic unsaturation in the substrates during the melt processing of the polymers containing galvinoxyl, 4-hydroxy, 2,2,6, 6-tetra methyl piperidine oxyl and iodine respectively. No bonding of the melt stabilisers to the polymers was found to occur. Cupric stearate was found to undergo a similar redox reaction during its action as a melt stabiliser with the formation of unsaturation in the polymer. Evidence for the above processes is presented. The behaviours of melt stabilisers in the subsequent thermal and photooxidation of polyolefins have also been studied. Galvinoxyl which is very effective under both mild and severe processing canditions has been found to be an effective antioxidant during thermal oxidation (oven ageing) and it is also moderately good. as a photo-stabiliser. Iodine and cupric stearate acted efficiently during melt stabilisation of polymers, however they were both ineffective as thermo-oxidative antioxidants and UV stabilisers. Although the melt stabilisation effectiveness of stable nitroxyl radicals (e.g. 4-hydroxy, 2,2,6,6-tetra methyl piperidineoxyl and Bis- (2,2,6 ,6-tetra methyl-4- piperidinyl-N-oxyl) sebacate) is not as high as that of galvinoxyl during processing particularly in excess of air, they have been found to be much more efficient as UV stabilisers for polyolefins. The reasons for this are discussed.

The environmental impacts of technical change

The thesis is concerned with relationships between profit, technology and environmental change. Existing work has concentrated on only a few questions, treated at either micro or macro levels of analysis. And there has been something of an impasse since the neoclassical and neomarxist approaches are either in direct conflict (macro level), or hardly interact (micro level). The aim of the thesis was to bypass this impasse by starting to develop a meso level of analysis that focusses on issues largely ignored in the traditional approaches - on questions about distribution. The first questions looked at were descriptive - what were the patterns of distribution over time of the variability in types and rates of environmental change, and in particular, was there any evidence of periodization? Two case studies were used to examine these issues. The first looked at environmental change in the iron and steel industry since 1700, and the second studied pollution in five industries in the basic processing sector. It was established that environmental change has been markedly periodized, with an apparently fairly regular `cycle length' of about fifty years. The second questions considered were explanatory - whether and how this periodization could be accounted for by reference to variations in aspects of profitability and technical change. In the iron and steel industry, it was found that diffusion rates and the rate of nature of innovation were periodized on the same pattern as was environmental change. And the same sort of variation was also present in the realm of profits, as evidenced by cyclical changes in output growth. Simple theoretical accounts could be given for all the empirically demonstrable links, and it was suggested that the most useful models at this meso level of analysis are provided by structural change models of economic development.

Business cycles, long waves, and company langevity in Birmingham area metal industries 1780-1980

This doctoral thesis originates from an observational incongruence between the perennial aims and aspirations of economic endeavour and actually recorded outcomes, which frequently seem contrary to those intended and of a recurrent, cyclical type. The research hypothesizes parallel movement between unstable business environments through time, as expressed by periodically fluctuating levels of economic activity, and the precipitation rates of industrial production companies. A major problem arose from the need to provide theoretical and empirical cohesion from the conflicting, partial and fragmented interpretations of several hundred historians and economists, without which the research question would remain unanswerable. An attempt to discover a master cycle, or superimposition theorem, failed, but was replaced by minute analysis of both the concept of cycles and their underlying data-bases. A novel technique of congregational analysis emerged, resulting in an integrated matrix of numerical history. Two centuries of industrial revolution history in England and Wales was then explored and recomposed for the first time in a single account of change, thereby providing a factual basis for the matrix. The accompanying history of the Birmingham area provided the context of research into the failure rates and longevities of firms in the city's staple metal industries. Sample specific results are obtained for company longevities in the Birmingham area. Some novel presentational forms are deployed for results of a postal questionnaire to surviving firms. Practical demonstration of the new index of national economic activity (INEA) in relation to company insolvencies leads to conclusions and suggestions for further applications of research into the tempo of change, substantial Appendices support the thesis and provide a compendium of information covering immediately contiguous domains.

Effect of processing on sulphur antioxidants in polyolefins

The effect of processing on the antioxidant activity of sulphur-containing compounds, with particular reference to nickel dialkyldithiophosphates and their corresponding di sulphides, were studied in polyolefins under melt, thermal and photo-oxidative conditions. These compounds were evaluated both at low (normal) and high (concentrates) concentrations. In general, the dithiophosphates were found to be very efficient melt stabilisers at normal concentrtion levels, and compare quite favourably with the best commercially available systems. The nickel dithiophosphates were also found to be very efficient thermal stabilisers for polyolefins, but their activity is highly dependent on the alkyl substituent in the molecule. The corresponding disulphides on the other hand showed very little activity under thermal oxidative conditions, and this was attributed to their inefficiency in scavenging alkyl peroxyl radicals since both compounds possess similar peroxidolytic activity. Furthermore, the nickel dithiophosphates were found to be excellent photo stabilisers for mildly-processed polyolefins while the corresponding disulphides only offer slight protection to the polymer. Oxidative processing of the disulphide, however, results in a dramatic improvement in their photo antioxidant activity. Thionophospho-ric acid, a major oxidation product of dithiophosphates, was also shown to have photo antioxidant activity similar to that of the disulphides. A combination of a U.V. absorber with the nickel complex and/or the disulphide resulted in a synergistic stabiliser system which was further augmented by oxidative processing. Moreover, the dilute analogues of such multicomponent stabiliser concentrates also showed excellent melt, thermal and photo-stabilising activity. The mechanistic studies carried out on the nickel complex and the corresponding disulphide clearly identified the thionophosphoric acid a a major transformation product although various triesters were formed as reaction intermediates. The mechanisms of the antioxidant action of the dithiophosphates, which is believed to involve a cyclical process similar to that shown for simple alkyl sulphides and nitroxyls, are discussed.

Supporting English language teachers doing further degrees at a distance:a web based strategy researched

This thesis explores how the world-wide-web can be used to support English language teachers doing further studies at a distance. The future of education worldwide is moving towards a requirement that we, as teacher educators, use the latest web technology not as a gambit, but as a viable tool to improve learning. By examining the literature on knowledge, teacher education and web training, a model of teacher knowledge development, along with statements of advice for web developers based upon the model are developed. Next, the applicability and viability of both the model and statements of advice are examined by developing a teacher support site (bttp://www. philseflsupport. com) according to these principles. The data collected from one focus group of users from sixteen different countries, all studying on the same distance Masters programme, is then analysed in depth. The outcomes from the research are threefold: A functioning website that is averaging around 15, 000 hits a month provides a professional contribution. An expanded model of teacher knowledge development that is based upon five theoretical principles that reflect the ever-expanding cyclical nature of teacher learning provides an academic contribution. A series of six statements of advice for developers of teacher support sites. These statements are grounded in the theoretical principles behind the model of teacher knowledge development and incorporate nine keys to effective web facilitation. Taken together, they provide a forward-looking contribution to the praxis of web supported teacher education, and thus to the potential dissemination of the research presented here. The research has succeeded in reducing the proliferation of terminology in teacher knowledge into a succinct model of teacher knowledge development. The model may now be used to further our understanding of how teachers learn and develop as other research builds upon the individual study here. NB: Appendix 4 is only available only available for consultation at Aston University Library with prior arrangement.

The role of national culture in advertising's sensitivity to business cycles:an investigation across continents

The authors conduct a systematic investigation into the cyclical sensitivity of advertising expenditures in 37 countries, covering four key media: magazines, newspapers, radio, and television. They show that advertising is considerably more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the economy as a whole. Advertising behaves less cyclically in countries high in long-term orientation and power distance, but it is more cyclical in countries high in uncertainty avoidance. Furthermore, advertising is more sensitive to the business cycle in countries characterized by significant stock market pressure and few foreign-owned multinational corporations. The authors provide initial evidence on the long-term social and managerial losses incurred when companies tie ad spending too tightly to business cycles. Countries in which advertising behaves more cyclically exhibit slower growth of the advertising industry. Moreover, private-label growth is higher in countries characterized by more cyclical advertising spending, implying significant losses for brand manufacturers. Finally, an examination of 26 global companies shows that stock price performance is lower for companies that exhibit stronger procyclical advertising spending patterns.

The role of illness perceptions:psychological distress and treatment seeking delay in patients with genital warts.

This study examined the relationships between illness perceptions, psychological distress and treatment-seeking delay in genital warts patients. Sixty-six genital warts patients were approached while attending a sexual health clinic. They completed a questionnaire assessing their illness perceptions, psychological distress and treatment-seeking delay. Negative perceptions of illness consequences and control and a perceived cyclical timeline were associated with increased psychological distress. Perceived illness consequences maintained significance in a multiple regression equation, which accounted for 25% variance in distress. Depression was associated with treatment-seeking delay (r = 0.28, P = 0.03). In conclusion, illness perceptions may play an important role in the experience of psychological distress in genital warts patients. The implications of these findings for the design of health-care interventions are discussed.

Down-regulation of angiopoietin-1 expression in menorrhagia

Angiogenesis is an essential component of endometrial repair and regeneration following menses. Perturbation of this process is associated with menorrhagia, a common gynecological disorder that results in excessive menstrual bleeding. Angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) promotes vascular maturation via the Tie-2 receptor, while angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) is its natural antagonist that destabilizes vessels and initiates neovascularization in the presence of vascular endothelial growth factor. To test the hypothesis that menorrhagia arises as a result of poor signal for vascular maturation, we have examined the expression of Ang-1, Ang-2, and Tie-2 in endometrium throughout the menstrual cycle from 30 normal women and 28 patients with menorrhagia. Ribonuclease protection assay and Western blot analysis showed Ang-2 expression was consistently higher than Ang-1 in normal endometrium throughout the cycle. However, with menorrhagia Ang-1 mRNA and protein were not detected or down-regulated, while Ang-2 was observed at similar levels in both normal and menorrhagic endometrium resulting in a greater than a 50% decrease in the ratio of Ang-1 to Ang-2 protein. In situ hybridization and immunohistochemical studies supported these findings and revealed cyclical changes in the expression of Ang-1 and Ang-2. These results suggest that the angiopoietin/Tie-2 system promotes vascular remodeling in endometrium and loss of normal Ang-1 expression may contribute to the excessive blood loss observed in menorrhagia.

Wave kinetics of random fibre lasers

Traditional wave kinetics describes the slow evolution of systems with many degrees of freedom to equilibrium via numerous weak non-linear interactions and fails for very important class of dissipative (active) optical systems with cyclic gain and losses, such as lasers with non-linear intracavity dynamics. Here we introduce a conceptually new class of cyclic wave systems, characterized by non-uniform double-scale dynamics with strong periodic changes of the energy spectrum and slow evolution from cycle to cycle to a statistically steady state. Taking a practically important example—random fibre laser—we show that a model describing such a system is close to integrable non-linear Schrödinger equation and needs a new formalism of wave kinetics, developed here. We derive a non-linear kinetic theory of the laser spectrum, generalizing the seminal linear model of Schawlow and Townes. Experimental results agree with our theory. The work has implications for describing kinetics of cyclical systems beyond photonics.

Aggregate dividends and consumption smoothing

We show that net equity payouts from the corporate sector play a crucial role in helping individuals manage their consumption path across the business cycle. In particular, we show that, as investors' desire to smooth consumption increases, optimal aggregate dividends become both more volatile and more counter-cyclical to help counterbalance pro-cyclical labor income. These findings are robust to whether or not agency conflicts exist in the economy.

Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe:post-crisis perspectives

This book examines how foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to Central and Eastern Europe have changed after the Great Recession. It argues that beyond their cyclical effects, the economic crisis and the changing competitiveness of Central and Eastern European countries have had structural impacts on FDI in the region. FDI has traditionally been viewed as the key driver of national development, but the apparent structural shift means that focusing on cheap labour as a competitive advantage is no longer a viable strategy for the countries in the region. The authors argue that these countries need to move beyond the narrative of upgrading (attracting FDI inflows with increasingly higher value added), and focus on ensuring greater value capture instead. A potential way for doing this is by developing the conditions in which innovative national companies can emerge, thrive and eventually develop into lead firms of global value chains. The book provides readers with a highly informative account of the reasons why this shift is necessary, as well as diverse perspectives and extensive discussions on the dynamics and structural impacts of FDI in post-crisis Central and Eastern Europe.