The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Cationic ring opening polymerisation (CROP) of oxetane and its derivatives using oxonium derived initiators

Several cationic initiator systems were developed and used to polymerise oxetane with two oxonium ion initiator systems being investigated in depth. The first initiator system was generated by the elimination of a chloride group from a chloro methyl ethyl ether. Adding a carbonyl co-catalyst to a carbocationic centre generated the second initiator system. It was found that the anion used to stabilise the initiator was critical to the initial rate of polymerisation of oxetane with hexafluoroantimonate resulting in the fastest polymerisations. Both initiator systems could be used at varying monomer to initiator concentrations to control the molecular number average, Mn, of the resultant polymer. Both initiator systems showed living characteristics and were used to polymerise further monomers and generate higher molecular weight material and block copolymers. Oxetane and 3,3-dimethyl oxetane can both be polymerised using either oxonium ion initiator system in a variety of DCM or DCM/1,4-dioxane solvent mixtures. The level of 1,4-dioxane does have an impact on the initial rate of polymerisation with higher levels resulting in lower initial rates of polymerisation but do tend to result in higher polydispersities. The level of oligomer formation is also reduced as the level of 1,4-dioxane is increased. 3,3-bis-bromomethyl oxetane was also polymerised but a large amount of hyperbranching was seen at the bromide site resulting in a difficult to solvate polymer system. Multifunctional initiator systems were also generated using the halide elimination reactions with some success being achieved with 1,3,5-tris-bromomethyl-2,4,6-tris-methyl-benzene derived initiator system. This offered some control over the molecular number average of the resultant polymer system.

A solar powered liquid-desiccant cooling system for greenhouses

Liquid desiccant systems are of potential interest as a means of cooling greenhouses to temperatures below those achieved by conventional means. However, only very little work has been done on this technology with previous workers focussing on the cooling of human dwellings using expensive desiccants such as lithium salts. In this study we are designing a system for greenhouse cooling based on magnesium chloride desiccant which is an abundant and non-toxic substance. Magnesium chloride is found in seawater, for example, and is a by-product from solar salt works. We have carried out a detailed experimental study of the relevant properties of magnesium rich solutions. In addition we have constructed a test rig that includes the main components of the cooling system, namely a dehumidifier and solar regenerator. The dehumidifier is a cross-flow device that consists of a structured packing made of corrugated cellulose paper sheets with different flute angles and embedded cooling tubes. The regenerator is of the open type with insulated backing and fabric covering to spread the flow of desiccant solution. Alongside these experiments we are developing a mathematical model in gPROMS® that combines and simulates the heat and mass transfer processes in these components. The model can be applied to various geographical locations. Here we report predictions for Havana (Cuba) and Manila (Philippines), where we find that average wet-bulb temperatures can be lowered by 2.2 and 3°C, respectively, during the month of May.