Point-wise confidence interval estimation by neural networks: A comparative study based on automotive engine calibration.

In developing neural network techniques for real world applications it is still very rare to see estimates of confidence placed on the neural network predictions. This is a major deficiency, especially in safety-critical systems. In this paper we explore three distinct methods of producing point-wise confidence intervals using neural networks. We compare and contrast Bayesian, Gaussian Process and Predictive error bars evaluated on real data. The problem domain is concerned with the calibration of a real automotive engine management system for both air-fuel ratio determination and on-line ignition timing. This problem requires real-time control and is a good candidate for exploring the use of confidence predictions due to its safety-critical nature.

Statnote 2: describing the normal

If a sample of measurements comes from a population that is normally distributed, we can use several statistics to describe our sample, such as the mean, SD, and CV. In addition, we can determine how atypical an individual measurement has to be before we would consider it not to be a member of a specific population. Furthermore, we can use our sample to make inferences about the population from which the sample is drawn including making estimates of the population mean and fitting confidence intervals to a sample mean.

Variability of the permetric response in normals and in glaucoma

This study investigated the variability of response associated with various perimetric techniques, with the aim of improving the clinical interpretation of automated static threshold perirnetry. Evaluation of a third generation of perimetric threshold algorithms (SITA) demonstrated a reduction in test duration by approximately 50% both in normal subjects and in glaucoma patients. SITA produced a slightly higher, but clinically insignificant, Mean Sensitivity than with the previous generations of algorithms. This was associated with a decreased between-subject variability in sensitivity and hence, lower confidence intervals for normality. In glaucoma, the SITA algorithms gave rise to more statistically significant visual field defects and a similar between-visit repeatability to the Full Threshold and FASTPAC algorithms. The higher estimated sensitivity observed with SITA compared to Full Threshold and FASTPAC were not attributed to a reduction in the fatigue effect. The investigation of a novel method of maintaining patient fixation, a roving fixation target which paused immediately prior lo the stimulus presentation, revealed a greater degree of fixational instability with the roving fixation target compared to the conventional static fixation target. Previous experience with traditional white-white perimetry did not eradicate the learning effect in short-wavelength automated perimetry (SWAP) in a group of ocular hypertensive patients. The learning effect was smaller in an experienced group of patients compared to a naive group of patients, but was still at a significant level to require that patients should undertake a series of at least three familiarisation tests with SWAP.

Educational and behavioural interventions for anticoagulant therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation

Background Current guidelines recommend oral anticoagulation therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation who are at moderate-to-high risk of stroke, however anticoagulation control (time in therapeutic range (TTR)) is dependent on many factors. Educational and behavioural interventions may impact on patients’ ability to maintain their International Normalised Ratio (INR) control. Objectives To evaluate the effects on TTR of educational and behavioural interventions for oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) in The Cochrane Library (2012, Issue 7 of 12), MEDLINE Ovid (1950 to week 4 July 2012), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE Ovid (1947 to Week 31 2012), PsycINFO Ovid (1806 to 2012 week 5 July) on 8 August 2012 and CINAHL Plus with Full Text EBSCO (to August 2012) on 9 August 2012. We applied no language restrictions. Selection criteria The primary outcome analysed was TTR. Secondary outcomes included decision conflict (patient's uncertainty in making health-related decisions), percentage of INRs in the therapeutic range, major bleeding, stroke and thromboembolic events, patient knowledge, patient satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and anxiety. Data collection and analysis The two review authors independently extracted data. Where insufficient data were present to conduct a meta-analysis, effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs) of the included studies were reported. Data were pooled for two outcomes, TTR and decision conflict. Main results Eight trials with a total of 1215 AF patients (number of AF participants included in the individual trials ranging from 14 to 434) were included within the review. Studies included education, decision aids, and self-monitoring plus education. For the primary outcome of TTR, data for the AF participants in two self-monitoring plus education trials were pooled and did not favour self-monitoring plus education or usual care in improving TTR, with a mean difference of 6.31 (95% CI -5.63 to 18.25). For the secondary outcome of decision conflict, data from two decision aid trials favoured usual care over the decision aid in terms of reducing decision conflict, with a mean difference of -0.1 (95% CI -0.2 to -0.02). Authors' conclusions This review demonstrated that there is insufficient evidence to draw definitive conclusions regarding the impact of educational or behavioural interventions on TTR in AF patients receiving OAT. Thus, more trials are needed to examine the impact of interventions on anticoagulation control in AF patients and the mechanisms by which they are successful. It is also important to explore the psychological implications for patients suffering from this long-term chronic condition.

Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector

Guest editorial Ali Emrouznejad is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston Business School in Birmingham, UK. His areas of research interest include performance measurement and management, efficiency and productivity analysis as well as data mining. He has published widely in various international journals. He is an Associate Editor of IMA Journal of Management Mathematics and Guest Editor to several special issues of journals including Journal of Operational Research Society, Annals of Operations Research, Journal of Medical Systems, and International Journal of Energy Management Sector. He is in the editorial board of several international journals and co-founder of Performance Improvement Management Software. William Ho is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston University Business School. Before joining Aston in 2005, he had worked as a Research Associate in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. His research interests include supply chain management, production and operations management, and operations research. He has published extensively in various international journals like Computers & Operations Research, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, European Journal of Operational Research, Expert Systems with Applications, International Journal of Production Economics, International Journal of Production Research, Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, and so on. His first authored book was published in 2006. He is an Editorial Board member of the International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology and an Associate Editor of the OR Insight Journal. Currently, he is a Scholar of the Advanced Institute of Management Research. Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector This special issue aims to focus on holistic, applied research on performance measurement in energy sector management and for publication of relevant applied research to bridge the gap between industry and academia. After a rigorous refereeing process, seven papers were included in this special issue. The volume opens with five data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based papers. Wu et al. apply the DEA-based Malmquist index to evaluate the changes in relative efficiency and the total factor productivity of coal-fired electricity generation of 30 Chinese administrative regions from 1999 to 2007. Factors considered in the model include fuel consumption, labor, capital, sulphur dioxide emissions, and electricity generated. The authors reveal that the east provinces were relatively and technically more efficient, whereas the west provinces had the highest growth rate in the period studied. Ioannis E. Tsolas applies the DEA approach to assess the performance of Greek fossil fuel-fired power stations taking undesirable outputs into consideration, such as carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. In addition, the bootstrapping approach is deployed to address the uncertainty surrounding DEA point estimates, and provide bias-corrected estimations and confidence intervals for the point estimates. The author revealed from the sample that the non-lignite-fired stations are on an average more efficient than the lignite-fired stations. Maethee Mekaroonreung and Andrew L. Johnson compare the relative performance of three DEA-based measures, which estimate production frontiers and evaluate the relative efficiency of 113 US petroleum refineries while considering undesirable outputs. Three inputs (capital, energy consumption, and crude oil consumption), two desirable outputs (gasoline and distillate generation), and an undesirable output (toxic release) are considered in the DEA models. The authors discover that refineries in the Rocky Mountain region performed the best, and about 60 percent of oil refineries in the sample could improve their efficiencies further. H. Omrani, A. Azadeh, S. F. Ghaderi, and S. Abdollahzadeh presented an integrated approach, combining DEA, corrected ordinary least squares (COLS), and principal component analysis (PCA) methods, to calculate the relative efficiency scores of 26 Iranian electricity distribution units from 2003 to 2006. Specifically, both DEA and COLS are used to check three internal consistency conditions, whereas PCA is used to verify and validate the final ranking results of either DEA (consistency) or DEA-COLS (non-consistency). Three inputs (network length, transformer capacity, and number of employees) and two outputs (number of customers and total electricity sales) are considered in the model. Virendra Ajodhia applied three DEA-based models to evaluate the relative performance of 20 electricity distribution firms from the UK and the Netherlands. The first model is a traditional DEA model for analyzing cost-only efficiency. The second model includes (inverse) quality by modelling total customer minutes lost as an input data. The third model is based on the idea of using total social costs, including the firm’s private costs and the interruption costs incurred by consumers, as an input. Both energy-delivered and number of consumers are treated as the outputs in the models. After five DEA papers, Stelios Grafakos, Alexandros Flamos, Vlasis Oikonomou, and D. Zevgolis presented a multiple criteria analysis weighting approach to evaluate the energy and climate policy. The proposed approach is akin to the analytic hierarchy process, which consists of pairwise comparisons, consistency verification, and criteria prioritization. In the approach, stakeholders and experts in the energy policy field are incorporated in the evaluation process by providing an interactive mean with verbal, numerical, and visual representation of their preferences. A total of 14 evaluation criteria were considered and classified into four objectives, such as climate change mitigation, energy effectiveness, socioeconomic, and competitiveness and technology. Finally, Borge Hess applied the stochastic frontier analysis approach to analyze the impact of various business strategies, including acquisition, holding structures, and joint ventures, on a firm’s efficiency within a sample of 47 natural gas transmission pipelines in the USA from 1996 to 2005. The author finds that there were no significant changes in the firm’s efficiency by an acquisition, and there is a weak evidence for efficiency improvements caused by the new shareholder. Besides, the author discovers that parent companies appear not to influence a subsidiary’s efficiency positively. In addition, the analysis shows a negative impact of a joint venture on technical efficiency of the pipeline company. To conclude, we are grateful to all the authors for their contribution, and all the reviewers for their constructive comments, which made this special issue possible. We hope that this issue would contribute significantly to performance improvement of the energy sector.

Educational and behavioural interventions for anticoagulant therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation

background Current guidelines recommend oral anticoagulation therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation who are at moderate-to-high risk of stroke, however anticoagulation control (time in therapeutic range (TTR)) is dependent on many factors. Educational and behavioural interventions may impact on patients’ ability to maintain their International Normalised Ratio (INR) control. Objectives To evaluate the effects on TTR of educational and behavioural interventions for oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) in The Cochrane Library (2012, Issue 7 of 12), MEDLINE Ovid (1950 to week 4 July 2012), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE Ovid (1947 to Week 31 2012), PsycINFO Ovid (1806 to 2012 week 5 July) on 8 August 2012 and CINAHL Plus with Full Text EBSCO (to August 2012) on 9 August 2012. We applied no language restrictions. Selection criteria The primary outcome analysed was TTR. Secondary outcomes included decision conflict (patient's uncertainty in making health-related decisions), percentage of INRs in the therapeutic range, major bleeding, stroke and thromboembolic events, patient knowledge, patient satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and anxiety. Data collection and analysis The two review authors independently extracted data. Where insufficient data were present to conduct a meta-analysis, effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs) of the included studies were reported. Data were pooled for two outcomes, TTR and decision conflict. Main results Eight trials with a total of 1215 AF patients (number of AF participants included in the individual trials ranging from 14 to 434) were included within the review. Studies included education, decision aids, and self-monitoring plus education. For the primary outcome of TTR, data for the AF participants in two self-monitoring plus education trials were pooled and did not favour self-monitoring plus education or usual care in improving TTR, with a mean difference of 6.31 (95% CI -5.63 to 18.25). For the secondary outcome of decision conflict, data from two decision aid trials favoured usual care over the decision aid in terms of reducing decision conflict, with a mean difference of -0.1 (95% CI -0.2 to -0.02). Authors' conclusions This review demonstrated that there is insufficient evidence to draw definitive conclusions regarding the impact of educational or behavioural interventions on TTR in AF patients receiving OAT. Thus, more trials are needed to examine the impact of interventions on anticoagulation control in AF patients and the mechanisms by which they are successful. It is also important to explore the psychological implications for patients suffering from this long-term chronic condition.

Derivation of marginal effects of determinants of technical inefficiency

In efficiency studies using the stochastic frontier approach, the main focus is to explain inefficiency in terms of some exogenous variables and computation of marginal effects of each of these determinants. Although inefficiency is estimated by its mean conditional on the composed error term (the Jondrow et al., 1982 estimator), the marginal effects are computed from the unconditional mean of inefficiency (Wang, 2002). In this paper we derive the marginal effects based on the Jondrow et al. estimator and use the bootstrap method to compute confidence intervals of the marginal effects.

Estimating the efficiency of healthcare facilities providing HIV/AIDS treatment in Zambia:a data envelopment approach

Zambia and many other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa face a key challenge of sustaining high levels of coverage of AIDS treatment under prospects of dwindling global resources for HIV/AIDS treatment. Policy debate in HIV/AIDS is increasingly paying more focus to efficiency in the use of available resources. In this chapter, we apply Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to estimate short term technical efficiency of 34 HIV/AIDS treatment facilities in Zambia. The data consists of input variables such as human resources, medical equipment, building space, drugs, medical supplies, and other materials used in providing HIV/AIDS treatment. Two main outputs namely, numbers of ART-years (Anti-Retroviral Therapy-years) and pre-ART-years are included in the model. Results show the mean technical efficiency score to be 83%, with great variability in efficiency scores across the facilities. Scale inefficiency is also shown to be significant. About half of the facilities were on the efficiency frontier. We also construct bootstrap confidence intervals around the efficiency scores.

Regression analysis of ranked segment parameters for optic nerve head classification:a pilot study

Purpose: To determine whether curve-fitting analysis of the ranked segment distributions of topographic optic nerve head (ONH) parameters, derived using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph (HRT), provide a more effective statistical descriptor to differentiate the normal from the glaucomatous ONH. Methods: The sample comprised of 22 normal control subjects (mean age 66.9 years; S.D. 7.8) and 22 glaucoma patients (mean age 72.1 years; S.D. 6.9) confirmed by reproducible visual field defects on the Humphrey Field Analyser. Three 10°-images of the ONH were obtained using the HRT. The mean topography image was determined and the HRT software was used to calculate the rim volume, rim area to disc area ratio, normalised rim area to disc area ratio and retinal nerve fibre cross-sectional area for each patient at 10°-sectoral intervals. The values were ranked in descending order, and each ranked-segment curve of ordered values was fitted using the least squares method. Results: There was no difference in disc area between the groups. The group mean cup-disc area ratio was significantly lower in the normal group (0.204 ± 0.16) compared with the glaucoma group (0.533 ± 0.083) (p < 0.001). The visual field indices, mean deviation and corrected pattern S.D., were significantly greater (p < 0.001) in the glaucoma group (-9.09 dB ± 3.3 and 7.91 ± 3.4, respectively) compared with the normal group (-0.15 dB ± 0.9 and 0.95 dB ± 0.8, respectively). Univariate linear regression provided the best overall fit to the ranked segment data. The equation parameters of the regression line manually applied to the normalised rim area-disc area and the rim area-disc area ratio data, correctly classified 100% of normal subjects and glaucoma patients. In this study sample, the regression analysis of ranked segment parameters method was more effective than conventional ranked segment analysis, in which glaucoma patients were misclassified in approximately 50% of cases. Further investigation in larger samples will enable the calculation of confidence intervals for normality. These reference standards will then need to be investigated for an independent sample to fully validate the technique. Conclusions: Using a curve-fitting approach to fit ranked segment curves retains information relating to the topographic nature of neural loss. Such methodology appears to overcome some of the deficiencies of conventional ranked segment analysis, and subject to validation in larger scale studies, may potentially be of clinical utility for detecting and monitoring glaucomatous damage. © 2007 The College of Optometrists.

Real and imaginary parts of the vibrational relaxation of acetonitrile in its electrolyte solutions:new results for the dynamics of solvent molecules

Isotropic scattering Raman spectra of liquid acetonitrile (AN) solutions of LiBF4 and NaI at various temperatures and concentrations have been investigated. For the first time imaginary as well as real parts of the solvent vibrational correlation functions have been extracted from the spectra. Such imaginary parts are currently an important component of modern theories of vibrational relaxation in liquids. This investigation thus provides the first experimental data on imaginary parts of a correlation function in AN solutions. Using the fitting algorithm we recently developed, statistically confident models for the Raman spectra were deduced. The parameters of the band shapes, with an additional correction, of the ν2 AN vibration (CN stretching), together with their confidence intervals are also reported for the first time. It is shown that three distinct species, with lifetimes greater than ∼10−13 s, of the AN molecules can be detected in solutions containing Li+ and Na+. These species are attributed to AN molecules directly solvating cations; the single oriented and polarised molecules interleaving the cation and anion of a Solvent Shared Ion Pair (SShIP); and molecules solvating anions. These last are considered to be equivalent to the next layer of solvent molecules, because the CN end of the molecule is distant from the anion and thus less affected by the ionic charge compared with the anion situation. Calculations showed that at the concentrations employed, 1 and 0.3 M, there were essentially no other solvent molecules remaining that could be considered as bulk solvent. Calculations also showed that the internuclear distance in these solutions supported the proposal that the ionic entity dominating in solution was the SShIP, and other evidence was adduced that confirmed the absence of Contact Ion Pairs at these concentrations. The parameters of the shape of the vibrational correlation functions of all three species are reported. The parameters of intramolecular anharmonic coupling between the potential surfaces in AN and the dynamics of the intermolecular environment fluctuations and intermolecular energy transfer are presented. These results will assist investigations made at higher and lower concentrations, when additional species and interactions with AN molecules will be present.

Validation of protein carbonyl measurement:a multi-centre study

Protein carbonyls are widely analysed as a measure of protein oxidation. Several different methods exist for their determination. A previous study had described orders of magnitude variance that existed when protein carbonyls were analysed in a single laboratory by ELISA using different commercial kits. We have further explored the potential causes of variance in carbonyl analysis in a ring study. A soluble protein fraction was prepared from rat liver and exposed to 0, 5 and 15 min of UV irradiation. Lyophilised preparations were distributed to six different laboratories that routinely undertook protein carbonyl analysis across Europe. ELISA and Western blotting techniques detected an increase in protein carbonyl formation between 0 and 5 min of UV irradiation irrespective of method used. After irradiation for 15 min, less oxidation was detected by half of the laboratories than after 5 min irradiation. Three of the four ELISA carbonyl results fell within 95% confidence intervals. Likely errors in calculating absolute carbonyl values may be attributed to differences in standardisation. Out of up to 88 proteins identified as containing carbonyl groups after tryptic cleavage of irradiated and control liver proteins, only seven were common in all three liver preparations. Lysine and arginine residues modified by carbonyls are likely to be resistant to tryptic proteolysis. Use of a cocktail of proteases may increase the recovery of oxidised peptides. In conclusion, standardisation is critical for carbonyl analysis and heavily oxidised proteins may not be effectively analysed by any existing technique.

Syndromes of collateral-reported psychopathology for ages 18-59 in 18 societies

The purpose was to advance research and clinical methodology for assessing psychopathology by testing the international generalizability of an 8-syndrome model derived from collateral ratings of adult behavioral, emotional, social, and thought problems. Collateral informants rated 8,582 18-59-year-old residents of 18 societies on the Adult Behavior Checklist (ABCL). Confirmatory factor analyses tested the fit of the 8-syndrome model to ratings from each society. The primary model fit index (Root Mean Square Error of Approximation) showed good model fit for all societies, while secondary indices (Tucker Lewis Index, Comparative Fit Index) showed acceptable to good fit for 17 societies. Factor loadings were robust across societies and items. Of the 5,007 estimated parameters, 4 (0.08%) were outside the admissible parameter space, but 95% confidence intervals included the admissible space, indicating that the 4 deviant parameters could be due to sampling fluctuations. The findings are consistent with previous evidence for the generalizability of the 8-syndrome model in self-ratings from 29 societies, and support the 8-syndrome model for operationalizing phenotypes of adult psychopathology from multi-informant ratings in diverse societies. © 2014 Asociación Española de Psicología Conductual.

Syndromes of self-reported psychopathology for ages 18-59 in 29 societies

This study tested the multi-society generalizability of an eight-syndrome assessment model derived from factor analyses of American adults' self-ratings of 120 behavioral, emotional, and social problems. The Adult Self-Report (ASR; Achenbach and Rescorla 2003) was completed by 17,152 18-59-year-olds in 29 societies. Confirmatory factor analyses tested the fit of self-ratings in each sample to the eight-syndrome model. The primary model fit index (Root Mean Square Error of Approximation) showed good model fit for all samples, while secondary indices showed acceptable to good fit. Only 5 (0.06%) of the 8,598 estimated parameters were outside the admissible parameter space. Confidence intervals indicated that sampling fluctuations could account for the deviant parameters. Results thus supported the tested model in societies differing widely in social, political, and economic systems, languages, ethnicities, religions, and geographical regions. Although other items, societies, and analytic methods might yield different results, the findings indicate that adults in very diverse societies were willing and able to rate themselves on the same standardized set of 120 problem items. Moreover, their self-ratings fit an eight-syndrome model previously derived from self-ratings by American adults. The support for the statistically derived syndrome model is consistent with previous findings for parent, teacher, and self-ratings of 11/2-18-year-olds in many societies. The ASR and its parallel collateral-report instrument, the Adult Behavior Checklist (ABCL), may offer mental health professionals practical tools for the multi-informant assessment of clinical constructs of adult psychopathology that appear to be meaningful across diverse societies. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Eye alignment:a novel approach

This thesis describes the design and development of an eye alignment/tracking system which allows self alignment of the eye’s optical axis with a measurement axis. Eye alignment is an area of research largely over-looked, yet it is a fundamental requirement in the acquisition of clinical data from the eye. New trends in the ophthalmic market, desiring portable hand-held apparatus, and the application of ophthalmic measurements in areas other than vision care have brought eye alignment under new scrutiny. Ophthalmic measurements taken in hand-held devices with out an clinician present requires alignment in an entirely new set of circumstances, requiring a novel solution. In order to solve this problem, the research has drawn upon eye tracking technology to monitor the eye, and a principle of self alignment to perform alignment correction. A handheld device naturally lends itself to the patient performing alignment, thus a technique has been designed to communicate raw eye tracking data to the user in a manner which allows the user to make the necessary corrections. The proposed technique is a novel methodology in which misalignment to the eye’s optical axis can be quantified, corrected and evaluated. The technique uses Purkinje Image tracking to monitor the eye’s movement as well as the orientation of the optical axis. The use of two sets of Purkinje Images allows quantification of the eye’s physical parameters needed for accurate Purkinje Image tracking, negating the need for prior anatomical data. An instrument employing the methodology was subsequently prototyped and validated, allowing a sample group to achieve self alignment of their optical axis with an imaging axis within 16.5-40.8 s, and with a rotational precision of 0.03-0.043°(95% confidence intervals). By encompassing all these factors the technique facilitates self alignment from an unaligned position on the visual axis to an aligned position on the optical axis. The consequence of this is that ophthalmic measurements, specifically pachymetric measurements, can be made in the absence of an optician, allowing the use of ophthalmic instrumentation and measurements in health professions other than vision care.