The use of a computer model to assess telephony performance

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Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

A study of thermodynamic characteristics and predictive computer modelling of an air to water heat pump system

A study on heat pump thermodynamic characteristics has been made in the laboratory on a specially designed and instrumented air to water heat pump system. The design, using refrigerant R12, was based on the requirement to produce domestic hot water at a temperature of about 50 °C and was assembled in the laboratory. All the experimental data were fed to a microcomputer and stored on disk automatically from appropriate transducers via amplifier and 16 channel analogue to digital converters. The measurements taken were R12 pressures and temperatures, water and R12 mass flow rates, air speed, fan and compressor input powers, water and air inlet and outlet temperatures, wet and dry bulb temperatures. The time interval between the observations could be varied. The results showed, as expected, that the COP was higher at higher air inlet temperatures and at lower hot water output temperatures. The optimum air speed was found to be at a speed when the fan input power was about 4% of the condenser heat output. It was also found that the hot water can be produced at a temperature higher than the appropriate R12 condensing temperature corresponding to condensing pressure. This was achieved by condenser design to take advantage of discharge superheat and by further heating the water using heat recovery from the compressor. Of the input power to the compressor, typically about 85% was transferred to the refrigerant, 50 % by the compression work and 35% due to the heating of the refrigerant by the cylinder wall, and the remaining 15% (of the input power) was rejected to the cooling medium. The evaporator effectiveness was found to be about 75% and sensitive to the air speed. Using the data collected, a steady state computer model was developed. For given input conditions s air inlet temperature, air speed, the degree of suction superheat , water inlet and outlet temperatures; the model is capable of predicting the refrigerant cycle, compressor efficiency, evaporator effectiveness, condenser water flow rate and system Cop.

Modelling and measurements on a condensing counter-flow heat exchanger

Experimental investigations and computer modelling studies have been made on the refrigerant-water counterflow condenser section of a small air to water heat pump. The main object of the investigation was a comparative study between the computer modelling predictions and the experimental observations for a range of operating conditions but other characteristics of a counterflow heat exchanger are also discussed. The counterflow condenser consisted of 15 metres of a thermally coupled pair of copper pipes, one containing the R12 working fluid and the other water flowing in the opposite direction. This condenser was mounted horizontally and folded into 0.5 metre straight sections. Thermocouples were inserted in both pipes at one metre intervals and transducers for pressure and flow measurement were also included. Data acquisition, storage and analysis was carried out by a micro-computer suitably interfaced with the transducers and thermocouples. Many sets of readings were taken under a variety of conditions, with air temperature ranging from 18 to 26 degrees Celsius, water inlet from 13.5 to 21.7 degrees, R12 inlet temperature from 61.2 to 81.7 degrees and water mass flow rate from 6.7 to 32.9 grammes per second. A Fortran computer model of the condenser (originally prepared by Carrington[1]) has been modified to match the information available from experimental work. This program uses iterative segmental integration over the desuperheating, mixed phase and subcooled regions for the R12 working fluid, the water always being in the liquid phase. Methods of estimating the inlet and exit fluid conditions from the available experimental data have been developed for application to the model. Temperature profiles and other parameters have been predicted and compared with experimental values for the condenser for a range of evaporator conditions and have shown that the model gives a satisfactory prediction of the physical behaviour of a simple counterflow heat exchanger in both single phase and two phase regions.

Damage location in structures by monitoring vibration characteristics

The aim of this work was to investigate the feasibility of detecting and locating damage in large frame structures where visual inspection would be difficult or impossible. This method is based on a vibration technique for non-destructively assessing the integrity of structures by using measurements of changes in the natural frequencies. Such measurements can be made at a single point in the structure. The method requires that initially a comprehensive theoretical vibration analysis of the structure is undertaken and from it predictions are made of changes in dynamic characteristics that will occur if each member of the structure is damaged in turn. The natural frequencies of the undamaged structure are measured, and then routinely remeasured at intervals . If a change in the natural frequencies is detected a statistical method. is used to make the best match between the measured changes in frequency and the family of theoretical predictions. This predicts the most likely damage site. The theoretical analysis was based on the finite element method. Many structures were extensively studied and a computer model was used to simulate the effect of the extent and location of the damage on natural frequencies. Only one such analysis is required for each structure to be investigated. The experimental study was conducted on small structures In the laboratory. Frequency changes were found from inertance measurements on various plane and space frames. The computational requirements of the location analysis are small and a desk-top micro computer was used. Results of this work showed that the method was successful in detecting and locating damage in the test structures.

Hearing protectors: a dilemma involving acoustics and personal safety

This thesis is concerned with the optimising of hearing protector selection. A computer model was used to estimate the reduction in noise exposure and risk of occupational deafness provided by the wearing of hearing protectors in industrial noise spectra. The model was used to show that low attenuation hearing protectors con provide greater protection than high attenuation protectors if the high attenuation protectors ore not worn for the total duration of noise exposure; or not used by a small proportion of the population. The model was also used to show that high attenuation protectors will not necessarily provide significantly greater reduction in risk than low attenuation protectors if the population has been exposed to the noise for many years prior to the provision of hearing protectors. The effects of earplugs and earmuffs on the localisation of sounds were studied to determine whether high attenuation earmuffs are likely to have greater potential than the lower attenuation earplugs for affecting personal safety. Laboratory studies and experiments at a foundry with normal-hearing office employees and noise-exposed foundrymen who had some experience of wearing hearing protectors showed that although earplugs reduced the ability of the wearer to determine the direction of warning sounds, earmuffs produced more total angular error and more confusions between left and right. !t is concluded from the research findings that the key to the selection of hearing protectors is to be found in the provision of hearing protectors that can be worn for a very high percentage of the exposure time by a high percentage of the exposed population with the minimum effect on the personal safety of the wearers - the attenuation provided by the protection should be adequate but not a maximum value.

Multispectral retinal image analysis:a novel non-invasive tool for retinal imaging

Purpose-To develop a non-invasive method for quantification of blood and pigment distributions across the posterior pole of the fundus from multispectral images using a computer-generated reflectance model of the fundus. Methods - A computer model was developed to simulate light interaction with the fundus at different wavelengths. The distribution of macular pigment (MP) and retinal haemoglobins in the fundus was obtained by comparing the model predictions with multispectral image data at each pixel. Fundus images were acquired from 16 healthy subjects from various ethnic backgrounds and parametric maps showing the distribution of MP and of retinal haemoglobins throughout the posterior pole were computed. Results - The relative distributions of MP and retinal haemoglobins in the subjects were successfully derived from multispectral images acquired at wavelengths 507, 525, 552, 585, 596, and 611?nm, providing certain conditions were met and eye movement between exposures was minimal. Recovery of other fundus pigments was not feasible and further development of the imaging technique and refinement of the software are necessary to understand the full potential of multispectral retinal image analysis. Conclusion - The distributions of MP and retinal haemoglobins obtained in this preliminary investigation are in good agreement with published data on normal subjects. The ongoing development of the imaging system should allow for absolute parameter values to be computed. A further study will investigate subjects with known pathologies to determine the effectiveness of the method as a screening and diagnostic tool.

A consideration of modelling techniques that can be used to evaluate manufacturing strategies

Practising engineers frequently seek to understand what the effects of various manufacturing strategies will be on the performance of their production facilities. In this situation a computer model can help to provide insight and form predictions about future manufacturing system performance. Various types of modelling methods exist and each provide models that have distinct characteristics. This paper presents a review of popular modelling techniques and, based on the results of a structured experimental study, summarises their capabilities to support the evaluation of manufacturing strategies.

Modelling and experimental verification of a solar-powered liquid desiccant cooling system for greenhouse food production in hot climates

Experiments and theoretical modelling have been carried out to predict the performance of a solar-powered liquid desiccant cooling system for greenhouses. We have tested two components of the system in the laboratory using MgCl2 desiccant: (i) a regenerator which was tested under a solar simulator and (ii) a desiccator which was installed in a test duct. Theoretical models have been developed for both regenerator and desiccator and gave good agreement with the experiments. The verified computer model is used to predict the performance of the whole system during the hot summer months in Mumbai, Chittagong, Muscat, Messina and Havana. Taking examples of temperate, sub-tropical, tropical and heat-tolerant tropical crops (lettuce, soya bean, tomato and cucumber respectively) we estimate the extensions in growing seasons enabled by the system. Compared to conventional evaporative cooling, the desiccant system lowers average daily maximum temperatures in the hot season by 5.5-7.5 °C, sufficient to maintain viable growing conditions for lettuce throughout the year. In the case of tomato, cucumber and soya bean the system enables optimal cultivation through most summer months. It is concluded that the concept is technically viable and deserves testing by means of a pilot installation at an appropriate location.

An Investigation into the adoption and implementation of computer aided production management systems:using the Rogers model of adoption and implementation and a social constuctionist account of technology

The research investigates the processes of adoption and implementation, by organisations, of computer aided production management systems (CAPM). It is organised around two different theoretical perspectives. The first part is informed by the Rogers model of the diffusion, adoption and implementation of innovations, and the second part by a social constructionist approach to technology. Rogers' work is critically evaluated and a model of adoption and implementation is distilled from it and applied to a set of empirical case studies. In the light of the case study data, strengths and weaknesses of the model are identified. It is argued that the model is too rational and linear to provide an adequate explanation of adoption processes. It is useful for understanding processes of implementation but requires further development. The model is not able to adequately encompass complex computer based technologies. However, the idea of 'reinvention' is identified as Roger's key concept but it needs to be conceptually extended. Both Roger's model and definition of CAPM found in the literature from production engineering tend to treat CAPM in objectivist terms. The problems with this view are addressed through a review of the literature on the sociology of technology, and it is argued that a social constructionist approach offers a more useful framework for understanding CAPM, its nature, adoption, implementation, and use. CAPM it is argued, must be understood on terms of the ways in which it is constituted in discourse, as part of a 'struggle for meaning' on the part of academics, professional engineers, suppliers, and users.

Computer simulation of the Cont-Bouchaud percolation model of financial markets

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The development of a computer simulation model of the interaction between the supply and usage of major components in car assembly you use in stock control

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