11 resultados para competing risks model

em Aston University Research Archive


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This paper describes the development and validation of a multidimensional measure of organizational climate, the Organizational Climate Measure (OCM), based upon Quinn and Rohrbaugh's Competing Values model. A sample of 6869 employees across 55 manufacturing organizations completed the questionnaire. The 17 scales contained within the measure had acceptable levels of reliability and were factorially distinct. Concurrent validity was measured by correlating employees' ratings with managers' and interviewers' descriptions of managerial practices and organizational characteristics. Predictive validity was established using measures of productivity and innovation. The OCM also discriminated effectively between organizations, demonstrating good discriminant validity. The measure offers researchers a relatively comprehensive and flexible approach to the assessment of organizational members' experience and promises applied and theoretical benefits. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Multi-agent algorithms inspired by the division of labour in social insects are applied to a problem of distributed mail retrieval in which agents must visit mail producing cities and choose between mail types under certain constraints.The efficiency (i.e. the average amount of mail retrieved per time step), and the flexibility (i.e. the capability of the agents to react to changes in the environment) are investigated both in static and dynamic environments. New rules for mail selection and specialisation are introduced and are shown to exhibit improved efficiency and flexibility compared to existing ones. We employ a genetic algorithm which allows the various rules to evolve and compete. Apart from obtaining optimised parameters for the various rules for any environment, we also observe extinction and speciation. From a more theoretical point of view, in order to avoid finite size effects, most results are obtained for large population sizes. However, we do analyse the influence of population size on the performance. Furthermore, we critically analyse the causes of efficiency loss, derive the exact dynamics of the model in the large system limit under certain conditions, derive theoretical upper bounds for the efficiency, and compare these with the experimental results.

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A nature inspired decentralised multi-agent algorithm is proposed to solve a problem of distributed task allocation in which cities produce and store batches of different mail types. Agents must collect and process the mail batches, without global knowledge of their environment or communication between agents. The problem is constrained so that agents are penalised for switching mail types. When an agent process a mail batch of different type to the previous one, it must undergo a change-over, with repeated change-overs rendering the agent inactive. The efficiency (average amount of mail retrieved), and the flexibility (ability of the agents to react to changes in the environment) are investigated both in static and dynamic environments and with respect to sudden changes. New rules for mail selection and specialisation are proposed and are shown to exhibit improved efficiency and flexibility compared to existing ones. We employ a evolutionary algorithm which allows the various rules to evolve and compete. Apart from obtaining optimised parameters for the various rules for any environment, we also observe extinction and speciation.

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The activation-deactivation pseudo-equilibrium coefficient Qt and constant K0 (=Qt x PaT1,t = ([A1]x[Ox])/([T1]x[T])) as well as the factor of activation (PaT1,t) and rate constants of elementary steps reactions that govern the increase of Mn with conversion in controlled cationic ring-opening polymerization of oxetane (Ox) in 1,4-dioxane (1,4-D) and in tetrahydropyran (THP) (i.e. cyclic ethers which have no homopolymerizability (T)) were determined using terminal-model kinetics. We show analytically that the dynamic behavior of the two growing species (A1 and T1) competing for the same resources (Ox and T) follows a Lotka-Volterra model of predator-prey interactions. © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

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Safety enforcement practitioners within Europe and marketers, designers or manufacturers of consumer products need to determine compliance with the legal test of "reasonable safety" for consumer goods, to reduce the "risks" of injury to the minimum. To enable freedom of movement of products, a method for safety appraisal is required for use as an "expert" system of hazard analysis by non-experts in safety testing of consumer goods for implementation consistently throughout Europe. Safety testing approaches and the concept of risk assessment and hazard analysis are reviewed in developing a model for appraising consumer product safety which seeks to integrate the human factors contribution of risk assessment, hazard perception, and information processing. The model develops a system of hazard identification, hazard analysis and risk assessment which can be applied to a wide range of consumer products through use of a series of systematic checklists and matrices and applies alternative numerical and graphical methods for calculating a final product safety risk assessment score. It is then applied in its pilot form by selected "volunteer" Trading Standards Departments to a sample of consumer products. A series of questionnaires is used to select participating Trading Standards Departments, to explore the contribution of potential subjective influences, to establish views regarding the usability and reliability of the model and any preferences for the risk assessment scoring system used. The outcome of the two stage hazard analysis and risk assessment process is considered to determine consistency in results of hazard analysis, final decisions regarding the safety of the sample product and to determine any correlation in the decisions made using the model and alternative scoring methods of risk assessment. The research also identifies a number of opportunities for future work, and indicates a number of areas where further work has already begun.

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The transport of a group of quinolone antibiotics across the human intestinal model, Caco-2 cells, was investigated. It was found that the transport of the quinolones generally correlated with the lipophilicity of the compounds, indicating the passive diffusional transcellular processes were involved. However, it was observed that the transport in both directions apical-to-basolateral and basolateral-to-apical was not equivalent, and polarised transport occurred. For all the quinolones studied except, BMS-284756-01, it was found that the basolateral-to-apical transport was significantly greater than the apical-to-basolateral transport. This finding suggested that the quinolones underwent a process of active secretion. The pKas and logPs for the quinolones were determined using potentiometric titrations. The measured logP values were compared with those determined using theoretical methods. The theoretical methods for calculating logP including the Moriguchi method correlated poorly with the measured logP values. Further investigations revealed that there may be an active transporter involved in the apical-to-basolateral transport of quinolones as well. This mechanism was sensitive to competing quinolones, but, it was unaffected by the metabolic inhibitor combination of sodium azide (15mM) with 2-deoxy-D-glucose (50mM). The basolateral-to-apical transport of quinolones was found to be sensitive to inhibition by a number of different inhibitors. The metabolic inhibitors, sodium azide (15mM) with 2-deoxy-D-glucose (50mM) and 2,4-dinitrophenol (1mM), were able to reduce the basolateral-to-apical transport of quinolones. A reduction in temperature from 37°C to 2°C caused an 80-fold decrease in the transport of gatifloxacin in both directions, however, this effect was not sufficient to abolish the greater basolateral-to-apical secretion. As with apical-to-basolateral transport, it was found that quinolones competed with gatifloxacin for basolateral-to-apical transport, both ofloxacin (100μM) and norfloxacin (100μM) significantly (P<0.003) decreased the basolateral-to-apical transport of gatifloxacin; however, ciprofloxacin (100μM and 300μM) had no effect. A number of inhibitors of various transport systems were also investigated. It was found that the anion transport inhibitor, probenecid (100 μM) had a significant inhibitory effect on the basolateral-to-apical transport of ciprofloxacin (P=0.039), while the cation transport inhibitor cimetidine (100μM and 500μM) had no effect. The organic anion exchange inhibitor 4,4'diisothiocyanostilbene-2-2' -disulphonic acid DIDS (400μM) also had a significant inhibitory effect (P=O.O 13). The PgP inhibitor and anion exchange inhibitor verapamil (400Mμ) was able to completely abolish the basolateral-to-apical secretion of gatifloxacin and bring it into line with the apical-to-basolateral flux. In conclusion, the apical-to-basolateral and basolateral-toapical transport of quinolones involved an active component. The basolateral-to-apical secretion was abolished by a verapamil (400μM), a bisubstrate for PgP and the anion transporter.

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The aim of this research work was primarily to examine the relevance of patient parameters, ward structures, procedures and practices, in respect of the potential hazards of wound cross-infection and nasal colonisation with multiple resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus, which it is thought might provide a useful indication of a patient's general susceptibility to wound infection. Information from a large cross-sectional survey involving 12,000 patients from some 41 hospitals and 375 wards was collected over a five-year period from 1967-72, and its validity checked before any subsequent analysis was carried out. Many environmental factors and procedures which had previously been thought (but never conclusively proved) to have an influence on wound infection or nasal colonisation rates, were assessed, and subsequently dismissed as not being significant, provided that the standard of the current range of practices and procedures is maintained and not allowed to deteriorate. Retrospective analysis revealed that the probability of wound infection was influenced by the patient's age, duration of pre-operative hospitalisation, sex, type of wound, presence and type of drain, number of patients in ward, and other special risk factors, whilst nasal colonisation was found to be influenced by the patient's age, total duration of hospitalisation, sex, antibiotics, proportion of occupied beds in the ward, average distance between bed centres and special risk factors. A multi-variate regression analysis technique was used to develop statistical models, consisting of variable patient and environmental factors which were found to have a significant influence on the risks pertaining to wound infection and nasal colonisation. A relationship between wound infection and nasal colonisation was then established and this led to the development of a more advanced model for predicting wound infections, taking advantage of the additional knowledge of the patient's state of nasal colonisation prior to operation.

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In examining bank cost efficiency in banking inclusion of risk-taking of banks is very important. In this paper we depart from the standard modeling approach and view risk intimately related to the technology. Thus, instead of controlling for risk by viewing them as covariates in the standard cost function we argue that the technology differs with risk, thereby meaning that the parameters of the parametric cost function changes with risk in a fully flexible manner. This is accomplished by viewing the parameters of the cost function as nonparametric functions of risk. We also control for country-specific effects in a fully flexible manner by using them as arguments of the nonparametric functions along with the risk variable. The resulting cost function then becomes semiparametric. The standard parametric model becomes a special case of our semiparametric model. We use the above modeling approach for banks in the EU countries. Actually, European financial integration is seen as a stepping stone for the development of a competitive single EU market that promotes efficiency and increases consumer welfare, changing the risk profile of the European banks. Particularly, financial integration allows more risk diversification and permits banks to use more advanced risk management instruments and systems, however it has at the same time increased the probability of systematic risks. Financial integration has increased the risk of contagion and changed its nature and scope. Consequently the bank’s risk seems to be an important issue to be investigated.

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In this paper, we discuss how discriminative training can be applied to the hidden vector state (HVS) model in different task domains. The HVS model is a discrete hidden Markov model (HMM) in which each HMM state represents the state of a push-down automaton with a finite stack size. In previous applications, maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) is used to derive the parameters of the HVS model. However, MLE makes a number of assumptions and unfortunately some of these assumptions do not hold. Discriminative training, without making such assumptions, can improve the performance of the HVS model by discriminating the correct hypothesis from the competing hypotheses. Experiments have been conducted in two domains: the travel domain for the semantic parsing task using the DARPA Communicator data and the Air Travel Information Services (ATIS) data and the bioinformatics domain for the information extraction task using the GENIA corpus. The results demonstrate modest improvements of the performance of the HVS model using discriminative training. In the travel domain, discriminative training of the HVS model gives a relative error reduction rate of 31 percent in F-measure when compared with MLE on the DARPA Communicator data and 9 percent on the ATIS data. In the bioinformatics domain, a relative error reduction rate of 4 percent in F-measure is achieved on the GENIA corpus.

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This study examines the information content of alternative implied volatility measures for the 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from 1996 until 2007. Along with the popular Black-Scholes and \model-free" implied volatility expectations, the recently proposed corridor implied volatil- ity (CIV) measures are explored. For all pair-wise comparisons, it is found that a CIV measure that is closely related to the model-free implied volatility, nearly always delivers the most accurate forecasts for the majority of the firms. This finding remains consistent for different forecast horizons, volatility definitions, loss functions and forecast evaluation settings.

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In order to reduce serious health incidents, individuals with high risks need to be identified as early as possible so that effective intervention and preventive care can be provided. This requires regular and efficient assessments of risk within communities that are the first point of contacts for individuals. Clinical Decision Support Systems CDSSs have been developed to help with the task of risk assessment, however such systems and their underpinning classification models are tailored towards those with clinical expertise. Communities where regular risk assessments are required lack such expertise. This paper presents the continuation of GRiST research team efforts to disseminate clinical expertise to communities. Based on our earlier published findings, this paper introduces the framework and skeleton for a data collection and risk classification model that evaluates data redundancy in real-time, detects the risk-informative data and guides the risk assessors towards collecting those data. By doing so, it enables non-experts within the communities to conduct reliable Mental Health risk triage.