The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

The influence of environment on foliose lichen growth and its ecological significance

This chapter considers various aspects of the influence of the environment on the growth of foliose lichens and its significance in determining the ecology of individual species. Radial growth (RaG) and growth in mass of foliose lichens is influenced by climate and microclimate and also by substratum factors such as rock and bark texture, substrate chemistry, and nutrient enrichment. Seasonal fluctuations in growth, as measured by radial growth rate (RaGR) per month, often correlate best with average or total rainfall, the number of rain days, or rainfall in a specific season. Temperature has also been identified to be an important climatic factor influencing growth in some studies. Interactions between microclimatic factors and especially light intensity, temperature, and moisture status are important in determining differences in growth in relation to aspect and slope of the substratum. The physical and chemical nature of the substratum has a profound influence on the growth of foliose lichens. Hence, the effects of texture, porosity, rate of drying, and the physical changes of the substratum on growth are likely to influence lichen distributions. Bird droppings may influence growth and survival by smothering the thalli, altering the pH, or adding inhibitory and stimulatory compounds. Nitrogen and phosphate availability may also influence growth. Chemical factors also have an important influence on lichens of maritime rocks, the effect of salinity and calcium ions being of particular importance. Effects of environmental factors on growth influence the competitive ability of a lichen and ultimately its ecology and distribution.

The influence of environment on foliose lichen growth and its biological significance

Radial growth and growth in mass of lichens is influenced by climatic and microclimatic factors and also by substratum factors such as rock and bark texture, chemistry, and nutrient enrichment. Seasonal fluctuations in growth, as measured by radial growth rate (RaGR) per month, often correlate best with average or total rainfall, the number of rain days, or rainfall in a specific season. Temperature is also considered to be an important climatic factor in some studies. Interactions between microclimatic factors and especially light intensity, temperature, and moisture are the most important in determining local annual growth rates. The physical and chemical nature of the substratum has a profound influence on the growth of foliose lichens. Hence, the effects of texture, porosity, rate of drying, and the physical changes of the substratum on growth are likely to influence lichen distributions. Bird droppings may influence growth and survival by smothering the thalli, altering the pH, or adding inhibitory and stimulatory compounds. Nitrogen and phosphate availability may also influence growth. Chemical factors may also have an important influence on lichens of maritime rocks, the effect of salinity and calcium ions being of particular importance. Zinc, copper, and mercury may also be important in lichen growth as they have been shown to affect the chlorophyll content of lichen algae. Effects of environmental factors on growth influence the competitive ability of lichens thus influencing their ecology and distribution.