Combining the wavelet transform and forecasting models to predict gas forward prices

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward energy prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi- layer perceptron, linear regression or GARCH. These techniques are applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the wavelet transform. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

Energy forward price prediction with a hybrid adaptive model

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward electricity/gas prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a Kalman filter (KF) and a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroschedasticity (GARCH) model (often used in financial forecasting). The GARCH model is used to compute next value of a time series. The KF updates parameters of the GARCH model when the new observation is available. This technique is applied to real data from the UK energy markets to evaluate its performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using this hybrid model. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

Analysis and simulation of computer controlled cellular mobile radio systems

Cellular mobile radio systems will be of increasing importance in the future. This thesis describes research work concerned with the teletraffic capacity and the canputer control requirements of such systems. The work involves theoretical analysis and experimental investigations using digital computer simulation. New formulas are derived for the congestion in single-cell systems in which there are both land-to-mobile and mobile-to-mobile calls and in which mobile-to-mobile calls go via the base station. Two approaches are used, the first yields modified forms of the familiar Erlang and Engset formulas, while the second gives more complicated but more accurate formulas. The results of computer simulations to establish the accuracy of the formulas are described. New teletraffic formulas are also derived for the congestion in multi -cell systems. Fixed, dynamic and hybrid channel assignments are considered. The formulas agree with previously published simulation results. Simulation programs are described for the evaluation of the speech traffic of mobiles and for the investigation of a possible computer network for the control of the speech traffic. The programs were developed according to the structured progranming approach leading to programs of modular construction. Two simulation methods are used for the speech traffic: the roulette method and the time-true method. The first is economical but has some restriction, while the second is expensive but gives comprehensive answers. The proposed control network operates at three hierarchical levels performing various control functions which include: the setting-up and clearing-down of calls, the hand-over of calls between cells and the address-changing of mobiles travelling between cities. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the control netwvork and indicate that small mini -computers inter-connected via voice grade data channels would be capable of providing satisfactory control

Proteolytic activity amongst selected Saprolegnia species

Saprolegia ssp. effectively utilized the protein casein as a sole source of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur, indicating considerable proteolytic activity. In the presence of a more simple carbon source such as glucose, which was readily assimilated, catabolite repression was not observed and casein exploitation was enhanced. Free proteinase activity was not detected by a number of methods, irrespective of culture conditions. However, clearing by mycelia of skimmed milk agar or agar amended with bacteria demonstrated a close association between proteinases and hyphae, suggestive of natural immobilization of proteinases. Casein breakdown was accompanied by release of individual amino acids and ammonia. The latter, indicative of amino acid assimilation and metabolism, was also associated with an increase in pH of culture medium. Single amino acids did not support growth of Saprolegnia but in combination with other amino acids, methionine encouraged greatest biomass production. Certain groupings of amino acids affected growth in a manner which departed from that expected, as assessed by multifactorial analysis of variance, and either enhanced or reduced growth.

The use of anticholinergic agents to treat excessive oropharyngeal and tracheal secretions in palliative care

Palliative care involves a multi-professional team approach to the provision of active, holistic care for patients and their families when the patient's disease is no longer responsive to curative treatment. Patient care encompasses medical and pharmacological intervention for symptom control, together with psychological, spiritual and social support for patients and families. Care is provided by teams in hospice, hospital or community environments. Although traditionally associated with providing care for cancer patients, palliative care services are increasingly providing for patients with non-malignant disease. Symptoms commonly associated with terminal phase of disease include pain, nausea, agitation, respiratory symptoms and general fatigue. During the last few days of life, patients may become weak, resulting in difficulty taking oral medication and have periods of unconsciousness. Some patients may require drug administration via subcutaneous infusion. A proportion of patients may develop difficulty clearing respiratory secretions causing a characteristic ‘death rattle’, which although not generally considered to be distressing for the patient, is often treated with a variety of anticholinergic drugs in an attempt to reduce the ‘noisy breathing’ for the benefit of relatives and others who may be closely associated with the patient.This study examined treatment of death rattle in two Hospices focusing on objective and subjective outcome measures in order to determine the efficacy of anticholinergic regimens in current use. Qualitative methods were employed to elicit attitudes of professionals and carers working closely with the patient. The number of patients recruited and monitored were small, many confounding factors were identified which questioned firstly the clinical rationale for administering anticholinergic drugs routinely to treat death rattle and secondly, the ethics of administering drug regimens to patients to treat death rattle with the primary aim of relieving distress for others. Ethnical issues, including those of consent are discussed in relation to their impact on the methodology of end of life studies in medicines management in palliative care.

Assessing the efficacy of structural merger remedies:choosing between theories of harm?

This paper shows that many structural remedies in a sample of European merger cases result in market structures which would probably not be cleared by the Competition Authority (CA) if they were the result of merger (rather than remedy).This is explained by the fact that the CA’s objective through remedy is to restore premerger competition, but markets are often highly concentrated even before merger. If so, the CA must often choose between clearing an ‘uncompetitive’merger, or applying an unsatisfactory remedy. Here, the CA appears reluctant to intervene against coordinated effects, if doing so enhances a leader’s dominance.

Spectrum redistribution for cognitive radios using discriminatory spectrum double auction

With the reformation of spectrum policy and the development of cognitive radio, secondary users will be allowed to access spectrums licensed to primary users. Spectrum auctions can facilitate this secondary spectrum access in a market-driven way. To design an efficient auction framework, we first study the supply and demand pressures and the competitive equilibrium of the secondary spectrum market, considering the spectrum reusability. In well-designed auctions, competition among participants should lead to the competitive equilibrium according to the traditional economic point of view. Then, a discriminatory price spectrum double auction framework is proposed for this market. In this framework, rational participants compete with each other by using bidding prices, and their profits are guaranteed to be non-negative. A near-optimal heuristic algorithm is also proposed to solve the auction clearing problem of the proposed framework efficiently. Experimental results verify the efficiency of the proposed auction clearing algorithm and demonstrate that competition among secondary users and primary users can lead to the competitive equilibrium during auction iterations using the proposed auction framework. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Persistence of apoptotic cells without autoimmune disease or inflammation in CD14-/- mice

Interaction of macrophages with apoptotic cells involves multiple steps including recognition, tethering, phagocytosis, and anti-inflammatory macrophage responses. Defective apoptotic cell clearance is associated with pathogenesis of autoimmune disease. CD14 is a surface receptor that functions in vitro in the removal of apoptotic cells by human and murine macrophages, but its mechanism of action has not been defined. Here, we demonstrate that CD14 functions as a macrophage tethering receptor for apoptotic cells.Significantly, CD14-/- macrophages in vivo are defective in clearing apoptotic cells in multiple tissues, suggesting a broad role for CD14 in the clearance process. However, the resultant persistence of apoptotic cells does not lead to inflammation or increased autoantibody production, most likely because, as we show, CD14-/- macrophages retain the ability to generate anti-inflammatory signals in response to apoptotic cells. We conclude that CD14 plays a broad tethering role in apoptotic cell clearance in vivo and that apoptotic cells can persist in the absence of proinflammatory consequences.

The macrophage and the apoptotic cell:an innate immune interaction viewed simplistically?

Macrophages play important roles in the clearance of dying and dead cells. Typically, and perhaps simplistically, they are viewed as the professional phagocytes of apoptotic cells. Clearance by macrophages of cells undergoing apoptosis is a non-phlogistic phenomenon which is often associated with actively anti-inflammatory phagocyte responses. By contrast, macrophage responses to necrotic cells, including secondarily necrotic cells derived from uncleared apoptotic cells, are perceived as proinflammatory. Indeed, persistence of apoptotic cells as a result of defective apoptotic-cell clearance has been found to be associated with the pathogenesis of autoimmune disease. Here we review the mechanisms by which macrophages interact with, and respond to, apoptotic cells. We suggest that macrophages are especially important in clearing cells at sites of histologically visible, high-rate apoptosis and that, otherwise, apoptotic cells are removed largely by non-macrophage neighbours. We challenge the view that necrotic cells, including persistent apoptotic cells are, of necessity, proinflammatory and immunostimulatory and suggest that, under appropriate circumstances, persistent apoptotic cells can provide a prolonged anti-inflammatory stimulus.