Upper and lower bounds on the learning curve for Gaussian processes

In this paper we introduce and illustrate non-trivial upper and lower bounds on the learning curves for one-dimensional Gaussian Processes. The analysis is carried out emphasising the effects induced on the bounds by the smoothness of the random process described by the Modified Bessel and the Squared Exponential covariance functions. We present an explanation of the early, linearly-decreasing behavior of the learning curves and the bounds as well as a study of the asymptotic behavior of the curves. The effects of the noise level and the lengthscale on the tightness of the bounds are also discussed.

Multifocal intraocular lens differentiation using defocus curves

Purpose: To determine the most appropriate analysis technique for the differentiation of multifocal intraocular lens (MIOL) designs using defocus curve assessment of visual capability.Methods:Four groups of fifteen subjects were implanted bilaterally with either monofocal intraocular lenses, refractive MIOLs, diffractive MIOLs, or a combination of refractive and diffractive MIOLs. Defocus curves between -5.0D and +1.5D were evaluated using an absolute and relative depth-of-focus method, the direct comparison method and a new 'Area-of-focus' metric. The results were correlated with a subjective perception of near and intermediate vision. Results:Neither depth-of-focus method of analysis were sensitive enough to differentiate between MIOL groups (p>0.05). The direct comparison method indicated that the refractive MIOL group performed better at +1.00, -1.00 and -1.50 D and worse at -3.00, -3.50, -4.00 and -5.00D compared to the diffractive MIOL group (p

A two-factor model of the U.K. yield curve

I model the forward premium in the U.K. gilt-edged market over the period 1982–96 using a two-factor general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model permits the decomposition of the forward premium into separate components representing interest rate expectations, the risk premia associated with each of the underlying factors, and terms capturing the direct impact of the variances of the factors on the shape of the forward curve.

Factors determining the growth curve of the foliose lichen Parmelia conspersa

Growth curves of the foliose lichen Parmelia conspersa (Ehrh. Ex Ach.)Ach. Were obtained by plotting radial growth (RGR, mm yr-1) of the fastest measured lobe, the slowest measured lobe, a randomly selected lobe, and by averaging a sample of lobes from each thallus against thallus diameter. Growth curves derived from the fastest-growing lobe and by averaging lobes were asymptotic and could be fitted by the growth model of Aplin and Hill. Mean lobe width increased with thallus size, reaching a maximum at approx. 4.5 cm thallus diameter. In four out of six thalli, radial growth of lobes over four months was positively correlated with initial lobe width or area. The RGR of isolated lobes was unaffected until the base of the lobe was removed to within 1-2 mm of the tip. The concentration (micrograms mg-1 biomass) of ribitol, arabitol and mannitol was greater in the marginal lobes of large than in small thalli. The results suggested that the growth curve of P. conspersa is determined by processes that occur within individual marginal lobes and can be explained by the Aplin and Hill model. Changes in lobe width and in the productive capacity of individual lobes with thallus size are likely to be more important factors than the degree of translocation within the lobe in determining the growth curve.

Growth curve of the lichen Rhizocarpon geographicum

Data on the growth curve of the lichen Rhizocarpon geographicum were obtained by measuring the radial growth rates (mm per 1.5 years) of 39 thalli from 2 to 65 mm in diameter growing in the same environment. An Aplin and Hill plot (r2 – r1 against ln r2 – ln r1) of the data and regression analyses suggested an initial phase of growth (up to a diameter of about 7 mm) in which the relative growth rate increased rapidly. This was followed by a phase in which the relative growth rate fell but the radial growth rate continued to rise (7 to 20 mm in diameter). Radial growth was then relatively constant until about 45 mm diameter and then declined. The Aplin and Hill model did not fit the data as a whole but may apply for a transient period in thalli between about 7 and 16 mm in diameter. The curve shows some similarities to that suggested by lichenometric studies but differs in showing a less steep decline in growth rate after the ‘great’ period.

Statnote 19: non-linear regression: fitting an exponential curve to data

Non-linear relationships are common in microbiological research and often necessitate the use of the statistical techniques of non-linear regression or curve fitting. In some circumstances, the investigator may wish to fit an exponential model to the data, i.e., to test the hypothesis that a quantity Y either increases or decays exponentially with increasing X. This type of model is straight forward to fit as taking logarithms of the Y variable linearises the relationship which can then be treated by the methods of linear regression.

Statnote 20: non-linear regression: fitting a general polynomial curve

In some circumstances, there may be no scientific model of the relationship between X and Y that can be specified in advance and indeed the objective of the investigation may be to provide a ‘curve of best fit’ for predictive purposes. In such an example, the fitting of successive polynomials may be the best approach. There are various strategies to decide on the polynomial of best fit depending on the objectives of the investigation.

Assessing the capability to acquire and absorb technology within the public sector in developing countries : the case of Kuwait

The aim of this research is to assess the acquisition and absorption technology capabilities of the public sector in developing countries, with specific focus on the State of Kuwait. The assessment process of these two capabilities was conducted using a model originally designed for the private sector. In addition, the research aims to propose a framework to enhance the technological capability of developing countries, as well as the performance of the public sector. To achieve these aims, an investigation of the technology process to three public ministries in Kuwait was conducted. The prime interest of this investigation was to evaluate the role of the transferred technology in enhancing the indigenous technological capability of the public sector. The research is based on a case study approach, comprising a main case study (Ministry of Electricity and Water) and three minor case studies. Based on the outcomes from an extensive literature review and the preliminary sectoral visits, the research question and four hypotheses were formulated. These hypotheses were then tested using interview-based survey and documentation. The findings of the research revealed the weakness of the acquisition and absorption technological capabilities of the public sector. Consequently, the public sector relies extensively on foreign contractors and expatriates to compensate for this weakness. Also, it was found that Kuwait Government has not taken the necessary measures to develop its technological capability. This research has proposed a framework which could lead, if properly managed, to the enhancement of indigenous capability. It has also proposed how to improve performance and productivity in the public sector. Finally, the findings suggest that the assessment model, with minor adjustment, is applicable to the public sector.

Evaluating the environmental Kuznets curve

We examine the empirical evidence for an environmental Kuznets curve using a semiparametric smooth coefficient regression model that allows us to incorporate flexibility in the parameter estimates, while maintaining the basic econometric structure that is typically used to estimate the pollution-income relationship. This allows us to assess the sensitivity to parameter heterogeneity of typical parametric models used to estimate the relationship between pollution and income, as well as identify why the results from such models are seldom found to be robust. Our results confirm that the resulting relationship between pollution and income is fragile; we show that the estimated pollution-income relationship depends substantially on the heterogeneity of the slope coefficients and the parameter values at which the relationship is evaluated. Different sets of parameters obtained from the semiparametric model give rise to many different shapes for the pollution-income relationship that are commonly found in the literature.