Business cycles, long waves, and company langevity in Birmingham area metal industries 1780-1980

This doctoral thesis originates from an observational incongruence between the perennial aims and aspirations of economic endeavour and actually recorded outcomes, which frequently seem contrary to those intended and of a recurrent, cyclical type. The research hypothesizes parallel movement between unstable business environments through time, as expressed by periodically fluctuating levels of economic activity, and the precipitation rates of industrial production companies. A major problem arose from the need to provide theoretical and empirical cohesion from the conflicting, partial and fragmented interpretations of several hundred historians and economists, without which the research question would remain unanswerable. An attempt to discover a master cycle, or superimposition theorem, failed, but was replaced by minute analysis of both the concept of cycles and their underlying data-bases. A novel technique of congregational analysis emerged, resulting in an integrated matrix of numerical history. Two centuries of industrial revolution history in England and Wales was then explored and recomposed for the first time in a single account of change, thereby providing a factual basis for the matrix. The accompanying history of the Birmingham area provided the context of research into the failure rates and longevities of firms in the city's staple metal industries. Sample specific results are obtained for company longevities in the Birmingham area. Some novel presentational forms are deployed for results of a postal questionnaire to surviving firms. Practical demonstration of the new index of national economic activity (INEA) in relation to company insolvencies leads to conclusions and suggestions for further applications of research into the tempo of change, substantial Appendices support the thesis and provide a compendium of information covering immediately contiguous domains.

The role of national culture in advertising's sensitivity to business cycles:an investigation across continents

The authors conduct a systematic investigation into the cyclical sensitivity of advertising expenditures in 37 countries, covering four key media: magazines, newspapers, radio, and television. They show that advertising is considerably more sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations than the economy as a whole. Advertising behaves less cyclically in countries high in long-term orientation and power distance, but it is more cyclical in countries high in uncertainty avoidance. Furthermore, advertising is more sensitive to the business cycle in countries characterized by significant stock market pressure and few foreign-owned multinational corporations. The authors provide initial evidence on the long-term social and managerial losses incurred when companies tie ad spending too tightly to business cycles. Countries in which advertising behaves more cyclically exhibit slower growth of the advertising industry. Moreover, private-label growth is higher in countries characterized by more cyclical advertising spending, implying significant losses for brand manufacturers. Finally, an examination of 26 global companies shows that stock price performance is lower for companies that exhibit stronger procyclical advertising spending patterns.

Exploring the dimensions and transactional outcomes of incomplete business contracts

With an increased emphasis on outsourcing and shortening business cycles, contracts between firms have become more important. Carefully written contracts contribute to the efficiency and longevity of inter-firm relationships as they may constrain opportunism and are often a less costly governance mechanism than maintaining complex social relationships (Larson 1992). This exploratory examination adds to our understanding of how incomplete contracts affect interorganizational exchange. First, we consider the multiple dimensions of contract constraints (safeguards). We also investigate the extent that constraints affect decisions to enforce the relationship by delaying payments, and whether the decision is efficient. Finally, we examine the extent the constraints are effective (and ineffective) at reducing transaction problems associated with enforcement. Based on 971 observations of transactions using explicit, written terms and other secondary data in the context of IT transaction in The Netherlands we test our research propositions.

Strategy making process, its content and context in small professional football clubs

This thesis examines the phenomenon of strategy. Making as practised by small professional football clubs. The study was undertaken because football clubs were perceived to have problems with strategy-making and because it was believed that the specific circumstances of football clubs could be outside the range of views covered by conventional views of strategy-making. The characteristics of the club environment are its uncertainty and unpredictability, simultaneous competition and co--operation, strong regulations, and a not-for-profit orientation. Small clubs in particular face a constant struggle for financial viability and survival, due in part to split business and playing objectives. The study was designed to establish the extent and nature of the difficulties clubs experience with a view to preparing the way for creating practical guidance on ways to overcome them. Clearly, in order to survive in the long term, small professional football clubs require very effective strategic decisions. This study has addressed this issue by inquiring into the nature of strategy making for these organisations with the objective to establish the general direction in which the football clubs in question should be moving. As a result, the main research question to guide this investigation was determined as: Why do small professional football clubs have difficulties making strategies. The investigation was based on an analysis the concept of strategy and its elements, the strategic vision and objectives, the process by which strategic action comes about, the strategic action itself, and the context within which this action occurs. Data has been collected, analysed and interpreted in relation to each of these elements. Together with a wide variety of published material, 20 small football clubs have been sampled and personal interviews were conducted with board members of those clubs. The findings indicate that small football clubs do indeed experience considerable difficulties in making strategies, the reasons for which lie both in the characteristics of their competitive environment and their approaches to strategy-making. The competitive environment is characterised by a cartel-like structure with a high degree of regulation, high levels of uncertainty, little control over the core product or the production process, short-term business cycles and a close geographical link between a club with its local market. The management of clubs is characterised by the need to balance conflicting sporting and business objectives. Formal planning techniques are of little use in the small football club context as decision-making processes have a strong political character and the development of novel strategies is hindered by a strong conservative, industry paradigm and a lack of financial and managerial resources. It is concluded that there is no simple advice to be given to clubs, as they must re-examine the relationship between their playing and business objectives to create a unified and workable approach.

Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Apodisation of photo-induced waveguide gratings using double-exposure with complementary duty cycles

We present a novel apodisation scheme for photo-induced waveguide gratings. The apodisation is implemented with double exposures that have reversely varying duty cycles. We have successfully applied the proposed scheme to remove the sidelobes of long period gratings (LPGs). We also observed for the first time super strong sidelobes in LPGs when creating them with only a single varying-duty-cycle exposure. The strong sidelobes can be well explained with a Mach-Zehnder interference model.

Apodisation of photo-induced waveguide gratings using double-exposure with complementary duty cycles

We present a novel apodisation scheme for photo-induced waveguide gratings. The apodisation is implemented with double exposures that have reversely varying duty cycles. We have successfully applied the proposed scheme to remove the sidelobes of long period gratings (LPGs). We also observed for the first time super strong sidelobes in LPGs when creating them with only a single varying-duty-cycle exposure. The strong sidelobes can be well explained with a Mach-Zehnder interference model.

The finance of biotechnology:investment in new biotechnology firms by British venture capitalists-attitudes to, and evaluation of, business proposals

A notable feature of the recent commercialisation of biotechnology has been the success of 200 or so new firms, established in America since 1976, in exploiting specialised market niches. A key factor in their formation has been the ready availability of venture capital funding. These firms have been instrumental in establishing America's lead in exploiting biotechnology. It is this example which Britain has attempted to emulate as part of its strategy for developing its own biotechnology capabilities. This thesis investigated some aspects of the relationship between biotechnology and venture capital, concentrating on the determinants of the venture capitalist's investment decision. Following an extensive literature survey, two hypothetical business proposals were used to find what venture capitalists themselves consider to be the key elements of this decision. It was found that venture capitalists invest in people, not products, and businesses, not industries. It was concluded that venture capital-backed small firms should, therefore, be seen as an adjunct to the development of biotechnology in Britain, rather than as a substitute for a co-ordinated, co-operative strategy involving Government, the financial institutions, industry and academia. This is chiefly because the small size of the UK's domestic market means that many potentially important innovations in biotechnology may continue to be lost, since the short term identification of market opportunities for biotechnology products will dictate that they are insupportable in Britain alone. In addition, the data analysis highlighted some interesting methodological issues concerning the investigation of investment decision making. These related especially to shortcomings in the use of scoresheets and questionnaires in research in this area. The conclusion here was that future research should concentrate on the reasons why an individual reaches an investment decision. It is argued that only in this way can the nature of the evaluation procedures employed by venture capitalists be properly understood.

Crack-growth of medical-grade silicone using pure shear tests

Silicone elastomers are commonly used in the manufacture of single-piece joint replacement implants for the finger joints. However, the survivorship of these implants can be poor, with failure typically occurring from fracture of the stems. The aim of this paper was to investigate the crack growth of medical-grade silicone using pure shear tests. Two medical-grade silicones (C6-180 and Med82-5010-80) were tested. Each sample had a 20 mm crack introduced and was subjected to a sinusoidally varying tensile strain, with a minimum of 0 per cent and a maximum in the range 10 to 77 per cent. Testing was undertaken at a frequency of 10 Hz. At various times during testing, the testing machine was stopped, the number of cycles completed was noted, and the crack length measured. Graphs of crack length against number of cycles were plotted, as well as the crack growth rate against tearing energy. The results show that Med82-5010-80 is more crack resistant than C6-180. Graphs of crack growth rate against tearing energy can be used to predict the failure of these medical-grade elastomers.

Concentrated seawater brines for use in solar-powered desiccant cooling cycles

We have directly measured properties of concentrated seawater brines produced through solar evaporation in salt works. They are sufficiently hygroscopic for use in desiccant cooling cycles which can cool air to 8.0–10.9 °C below ambient. This compares to only 3.8–8.7 °C with simple evaporative cooling. Desiccant cooling can extend the growing seasons of greenhouse crops thus providing an adaptive measure against climate change.

Characterizing permanent deformation and fracture of asphalt mixtures by using compressive dynamic modulus tests

Permanent deformation and fracture may develop simultaneously when an asphalt mixture is subjected to a compressive load. The objective of this research is to separate viscoplasticity and viscofracture from viscoelasticity so that the permanent deformation and fracture of the asphalt mixtures can be individually and accurately characterized without the influence of viscoelasticity. The undamaged properties of 16 asphalt mixtures that have two binder types, two air void contents, and two aging conditions are first obtained by conducting nondestructive creep tests and nondestructive dynamic modulus tests. Testing results are analyzed by using the linear viscoelastic theory in which the creep compliance and the relaxation modulus are modeled by the Prony model. The dynamic modulus and phase angle of the undamaged asphalt mixtures remained constant with the load cycles. The undamaged asphalt mixtures are then used to perform the destructive dynamic modulus tests in which the dynamic modulus and phase angle of the damaged asphalt mixtures vary with load cycles. This indicates plastic evolution and crack propagation. The growth of cracks is signaled principally by the increase of the phase angle, which occurs only in the tertiary stage. The measured total strain is successfully decomposed into elastic strain, viscoelastic strain, plastic strain, viscoplastic strain, and viscofracture strain by employing the pseudostrain concept and the extended elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle. The separated viscoplastic strain uses a predictive model to characterize the permanent deformation. The separated viscofracture strain uses a fracture strain model to characterize the fracture of the asphalt mixtures in which the flow number is determined and a crack speed index is proposed. Comparisons of the 16 samples show that aged asphalt mixtures with a low air void content have a better performance, resisting permanent deformation and fracture. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A micro industry with closed energy and water cycles for sustainable rural development

Sustainable development requires combining economic viability with energy and environment conservation and ensuring social benefits. It is conceptualized that for designing a micro industry for sustainable rural industrialization, all these aspects should be integrated right up front. The concept includes; (a) utilization of local produce for value addition in a cluster of villages and enhancing income of the target population; (b) use of renewable energy and total utilization of energy generated by co and trigeneration (combining electric power production with heat utilization for heating and cooling); (c) conservation of water and complete recycling of effluents; (d) total utilization of all wastes for achieving closure towards a zero waste system. Enhanced economic viability and sustainability is achieved by integration of appropriate technologies into the industrial complex. To prove the concept, a model Micro Industrial Complex (MIC) has been set up in a semi arid desert region in Rajasthan, India at village Malunga in Jodhpur district. A biomass powered boiler and steam turbine system is used to generate 100-200 KVA of electric power and high energy steam for heating and cooling processes downstream. The unique feature of the equipment is a 100-150 kW back-pressure steam turbine, utilizing 3-4 tph (tonnes per hour) steam, developed by M/s IB Turbo. The biomass boiler raises steam at about 20 barg 3 tph, which is passed through a turbine to yield about 150 kW of electrical power. The steam let out at a back pressure of 1-3 barg has high exergy and this is passed on as thermal energy (about 2 MW), for use in various applications depending on the local produce and resources. The biomass fuel requirement for the boiler is 0.5-0.75 tph depending on its calorific value. In the current model, the electricity produced is used for running an oil expeller to extract castor oil and the castor cake is used as fuel in the boiler. The steam is used in a Multi Effect Distillation (MED) unit for drinking water production and in a Vapour Absorption Machine (VAM) for cooling, for banana ripening application. Additional steam is available for extraction of herbs such as mint and processing local vegetables. In this paper, we discuss the financial and economic viability of the system and show how the energy, water and materials are completely recycled and how the benefits are directed to the weaker sections of the community.