Point-wise confidence interval estimation by neural networks: A comparative study based on automotive engine calibration.

In developing neural network techniques for real world applications it is still very rare to see estimates of confidence placed on the neural network predictions. This is a major deficiency, especially in safety-critical systems. In this paper we explore three distinct methods of producing point-wise confidence intervals using neural networks. We compare and contrast Bayesian, Gaussian Process and Predictive error bars evaluated on real data. The problem domain is concerned with the calibration of a real automotive engine management system for both air-fuel ratio determination and on-line ignition timing. This problem requires real-time control and is a good candidate for exploring the use of confidence predictions due to its safety-critical nature.

Supplier competitive advantage in inter-firm business relationships:is Keiretsu really a source of competitive advantage for Japanese automotive suppliers?

This paper explores how firms create and sustain competitive advantage in the inter-firm business relationships from a supplier’s perspective. Ultimately, this paper draws its attention to keiretsu partnerships and how it is perceived by Japanese automotive suppliers. Four main theoretical perspectives (resource based view, industrial organisation, transaction cost economics, and relational network) were considered when developing a conceptual framework based on competitive capability, market diversification, and level of engagement. The framework was examined against two best-practice automotive component suppliers. Later, primary data was also gathered through an interview with a CEO and a survey questionnaire with 11 Japanese companies. As a result, this paper classified these 11 companies into four supplier groups based on tier level (1 and 2) and affiliation condition. Findings propose that there may be little benefit in being an affiliated tier 1 supplier, and that independent tier 2 suppliers may be more competitive than affiliated ones.

The importance of collaborative frontloading in automotive supply networks

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate how research and development (R&D) collaboration takes place for complex new products in the automotive sector. The research aims to give guidelines to increase the effectiveness of such collaborations. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology used to investigate this issue was grounded theory. The empirical data were collected through a mixture of interviews and questionnaires. The resulting inducted conceptual models were subsequently validated in industrial workshops. Findings – The findings show that frontloading of the collaborative members was a major issue in managing successful R&D collaborations. Research limitations/implications – The limitation of this research is that it is only based in the German automotive industry. Practical implications – Practical implications have come out of this research. Models and guidelines are given to help make a success of collaborative projects and their potential impacts on time, cost and quality metrics. Originality/value – Frontloading is not often studied in a collaborative manner; it is normally studied within just one organisation. This study has novel value because it has involved a number of different members throughout the supplier network.

Assessing the financial impact of 6-Sigma in an automotive company

This paper reports on an assessment of an ongoing 6-Sigma program conducted within a UK based (US owned) automotive company. It gives an overview of the management of the 6-sigma programme and the 23 in-house methodology used. The analysis given in the paper pays particular focus to the financial impacts that individual projects have had. Three projects are chosen from the hundreds that have been completed and are discussed in detail, including which specific techniques have been used and how financially successful the projects were. Commentary is also given on the effectiveness of the overall program along with a critique of how the implementation of 6-Sigma could be more effectively managed in the future. This discussion particularly focuses upon issues such as: project selection and scoping, financial evaluation and data availability, organisational awareness, commitment and involvement, middle management support, functional variation, and maintaining momentum during the rollout of a lengthy program.

Designing and managing collaborative enterprises in the automotive industry

This paper presents the findings of a recently completed research project. It sheds light upon the appropriate governance of inter-firm relationships, in order to achieve competitive success for the whole partnership and its individual members. An exploratory study in the German automotive industry using inductive Grounded Theory was conducted, in order to form a set of propositions that were then validated. The research has resulted in the consolidation of these propositions into a novel concept termed Collaborative Enterprise Governance, which draws on an inter-disciplinary body of knowledge. The core of the concept is a competence based contingency framework that helps enterprise managers in selecting the most appropriate governance strategy (i.e. enterprise structure) for an inter-firm relationships within automotive supply networks (i.e. enterprises), depending on various exogenous and endogenous factors.

Alcohols and other oxygenates in automotive fuels

The aim of this research was to assess the effect of oxygenated hydrocarbons on the knocking characteristics of an engine when blended with low-leaded gasoline. Alcohols, ethers, esters and ketones were tested individually and in various combinations up to an oxygen content of 4% wt/wt in a blend with Series F-7 gasoline of 90, 92, 94 and 96 RON. Tests were carried out at wide open throttle, constant speed and standard timing setting. Engine speed was varied using a dynamometer and knock was detected by two piezoelectric transducers, one on the cylinder head monitoring all four cylinders and one monitoring the cylinder most prone to knock. The engine speeds associated with trace and light knock of a continuous nature were noted. Curves were produced for each oxygenate blend of base RON used against engine speed for the two knock conditions which were compared with those produced using pure Series F-7 fuels. From this a suggested RON of the blend was derived. RON increase was less when using a higher RON base fuel in the blend. Most individual oxygenates showed similar effects in similar concentrations when their oxygen content was comparable. Blends containing more than one oxygenate showed some variation with methanol/MTBE/3 methylbutan-2-one and methanol/MTBE/4 methyl pentan-2-one knocking less than expected and methanol/MTBE/TBA also showing good knock resistance. Further tests to optimise initial findings suggested a blend of methanol and MTBE to be superior although partial replacement of MTBE by 4 methyl pentan-2-one resulted in a fuel of comparable performance. Exhaust emissions were tested for a number of oxygenated blends in 2-star gasoline. 2-star and 4-star fuels were also tested for reference. All oxygenate blends reduced carbon monoxide emissions as expected and hydrocarbon emissions were also reduced. The largest reduction in carbon monoxide occurred using a 14.5 % (1 : 1 : 1) methanol/MTBE/4 methyl pentan-2-one blend. Hydrocarbon emissions were most markedly reduced by a blend containing 25.5 % 4 methyl pentan-2-one. Power output was tested for the blends and indicated a maximum increase of about 5 % at low engine speeds. The most advantageous blends were methanol/4 methyl pentan-2-one (6 : 5) 11% in 2-star and methanol/MTBE/4 methyl pentan-2-one (6 : 3 : 2) 11% in 2-star. In conclusion methanol/MTBE (6 : 5) and (5 : 5), and various combinations of methanol/MTBE/4 methyl pentan-2-one, notably (6 : 3 : 2) gave good results in all tests conducted. CFR testing of these blends showed them to increase both RON and MON substantially.

A post-structural analysis of perceptions and experiences of continuity and change within the UK automotive supplier base

Firms acting as suppliers to the British automotive industry have a long history of so doing, with some evidencing histories that predate even the invention of the motor car. In exploring the challenges faced by the descendants of these firms in the 1990s, a review is undertaken of the bodies of literature surrounding the changes wrought through the increased globalisation of the industry; the impact of new manufacturing technologies and techniques; the rising levels of co-operation between firms; and the growing impact of the automotive 'service sector'. Moreover, an exploration is undertaken of the perceived 'realities' of the automotive industry as constructed through discourse, including the ways in which discourse effects a continual reinterpretation and re-evaluation of the historical evolution of the industry. Attention is focused on the implications of the above for the automotive supply chain, and the means for its rationalisation proposed by the major car manufacturers and their partner-suppliers. Post-structuralist approaches are introduced as part of an attempt to establish and appropriate research methodology that can explore and deconstruct the discourses surrounding 'modernity', 'supply chain rationalisation', 'flexible specialisation' and 'globalisation' within the automotive industry. Analytical research is conducted into the small- to medium-sized business that constitute the majority of the supplier base in the United Kingdom, and the findings of this research are compared with those of a similar study conducted a quarter-century ago. In this way, the relationships of these firms with their customers, suppliers, and peers are investigated, as are their perceptions of a changing marketplace and their reactions to the impact of policies such as the 'supply chain rationalisation' pursued by the major automotive manufacturers. Authoritative discourses of industry form, function, and structure are challenged, with voice being granted to the marginalised: small suppliers, 'service sector' firms, or those only partly involved in the automotive industry.

A study of strategy formulation in an automotive manufacturer

The strategies and operations of the Rover Group were investigated using a behaviour based longitudinal examination. The investigating method used was developed from Mintzberg's classical diachronic study approach through the adoption of an observing participant approach supplemented with probes into specific areas of the organisation's activities. The thesis argues, through the use of a future-forward perspective of organisation capability, that an organisation's future capability can be assessed. The thesis questions the periodisation approach normally adopted in longitudinal studies and proposes an alternative method which the author believes generates a better understanding of the operations and future potential of the organisation. This method also produces generalisations which can be readily applied to other organisations. The introduction of a process perspective to behavioural studies has led to the promise of a unified understanding of strategic management and organisation development.

Nano-indentation measurement of oxide layers formed in LBE on F/M steels

Ferritic/martensitic (F/M) steels (T91, HT-9, EP 823) are candidate materials for future liquid lead or lead bismuth eutectic (LBE) cooled nuclear reactors. To understand the corrosion of these materials in LBE, samples of each material were exposed at 535 °C for 600 h and 200 h at an oxygen content of 10 wt%. After the corrosion tests, the samples were analyzed using SEM, WDX and nano-indentation in cross section. Multi-layered oxide scales were found on the sample surfaces. The compositions of these oxide layers are not entirely in agreement with the literature. The nano-indentation results showed that the E-modulus and hardness of the oxide layers are significantly lower than the values for dense bulk oxide materials. It is assumed that the low values stem from high porosity in the oxide layers. Comparison with in-air oxidized steels show that the E-modulus decreases with increasing oxide layer thickness. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The plasma nutriding of tool and bearing steels

There is some evidence to suggest that nitriding of alloy steels, in particular high speed tool steels, under carefully controlled conditions might sharply increase rolling contact fatigue resistance. However, the subsurface shear stresses developed in aerospace bearing applications tend to occur at depths greater than the usual case depths currently produced by nitriding. Additionally, case development must be limited with certain materials due to case spalling and may not always be sufficient to achieve the current theoretical depths necessary to ensure that peak stresses occur within the case. It was the aim of' this work to establish suitable to overcome this problem by plasma nitriding. To assist this development a study has been made of prior hardening treatment, case development, residual stress and case cracking tendency. M2 in the underhardened, undertempered and fully hardened and tempered conditions all responded similarly to plasma nitriding - maximum surface hardening being achieved by plasma nitriding at 450°C. Case development varied linearly with increasing treatment temperature and also with the square root of the treatment time. Maximum surface hardness of M5O and Tl steels was achieved by plasma nitriding in 15% nitrogen/85% hydrogen and varied logarithmically with atmosphere nitrogen content. The case-cracking contact stress varied linearly with nitriding temperature for M2. Tl and M5O supported higher stresses after nitriding in low nitrogen plasma atmospheres. Unidirectional bending fatigue of M2 has been improved up to three times the strength of the fully hardened and tempered condition by plasma nitriding for 16hrs at 400°C. Fatigue strengths of Tl and M5O have been improved by up to 30% by plasma nitriding for 16hrs at 450°C in a 75% hydrogen/25% nitrogen atmosphere.