Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

An empirical examination of the strategic decision-making process:the relationship between context, process, and outcomes

Despite concerted academic interest in the strategic decision-making process (SDMP) since the 1980s, a coherent body of theory capable of guiding practice has not materialised. This is because many prior studies focus only on a single process characteristic, often rationality or comprehensiveness, and have paid insufficient attention to context. To further develop theory, research is required which examines: (i) the influence of context from multiple theoretical perspectives (e.g. upper echelons, environmental determinism); (ii) different process characteristics from both synoptic formal (e.g. rationality) and political incremental (e.g. politics) perspectives, and; (iii) the effects of context and process characteristics on a range of SDMP outcomes. Using data from 30 interviews and 357 questionnaires, this thesis addresses several opportunities for theory development by testing an integrative model which incorporates: (i) five SDMP characteristics representing both synoptic formal (procedural rationality, comprehensiveness, and behavioural integration) and political incremental (intuition, and political behaviour) perspectives; (ii) four SDMP outcome variables—strategic decision (SD) quality, implementation success, commitment, and SD speed, and; (iii) contextual variables from the four theoretical perspectives—upper echelons, SD-specific characteristics, environmental determinism, and firm characteristics. The present study makes several substantial and original contributions to knowledge. First, it provides empirical evidence of the contextual boundary conditions under which intuition and political behaviour positively influence SDMP outcomes. Second, it establishes the predominance of the upper echelons perspective; with TMT variables explaining significantly more variance in SDMP characteristics than SD specific characteristics, the external environment, and firm characteristics. A newly developed measure of top management team expertise also demonstrates highly significant direct and indirect effects on the SDMP. Finally, it is evident that SDMP characteristics and contextual variables influence a number of SDMP outcomes, not just overall SD quality, but also implementation success, commitment, and SD speed.

Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map

The main purpose of the study is to develop an integrated framework for managing project risks by analyzing risk across project, work package and activity levels, and developing responses. Design/methodology/approach: The study first reviews the literature of various contemporary risk management frameworks in order to identify gaps in project risk management knowledge. Then it develops a conceptual risk management framework using combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and risk map for managing project risks. The proposed framework has then been applied to a 1500 km oil pipeline construction project in India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The concerned project stakeholders were involved through focus group discussions for applying the proposed risk management framework in the project under study. Findings: The combined AHP and risk map approach is very effective to manage project risks across project, work package and activity levels. The risk factors in project level are caused because of external forces such as business environment (e.g. customers, competitors, technological development, politics, socioeconomic environment). The risk factors in work package and activity levels are operational in nature and created due to internal causes such as lack of material and labor productivity, implementation issues, team ineffectiveness, etc. Practical implications: The suggested model can be applied to any complex project and helps manage risk throughout the project life cycle. Originality/value: Both business and operational risks constitute project risks. In one hand, the conventional project risk management frameworks emphasize on managing business risks and often ignore operational risks. On the other hand, the studies that deal with operational risk often do not link them with business risks. However, they need to be addressed in an integrated way as there are a few risks that affect only the specific level. Hence, this study bridges the gaps. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated analytic hierarchy process and its applications:a literature review

Due to its wide applicability and ease of use, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been studied extensively for the last 20 years. Recently, it is observed that the focus has been confined to the applications of the integrated AHPs rather than the stand-alone AHP. The five tools that commonly combined with the AHP include mathematical programming, quality function deployment (QFD), meta-heuristics, SWOT analysis, and data envelopment analysis (DEA). This paper reviews the literature of the applications of the integrated AHPs. Related articles appearing in the international journals from 1997 to 2006 are gathered and analyzed so that the following three questions can be answered: (i) which type of the integrated AHPs was paid most attention to? (ii) which area the integrated AHPs were prevalently applied to? (iii) is there any inadequacy of the approaches? Based on the inadequacy, if any, some improvements and possible future work are recommended. This research not only provides evidence that the integrated AHPs are better than the stand-alone AHP, but also aids the researchers and decision makers in applying the integrated AHPs effectively.

Combining analytic hierarchy process and goal programming for logistics distribution network design

Logistics distribution network design is one of the major decision problems arising in contemporary supply chain management. The decision involves many quantitative and qualitative factors that may be conflicting in nature. This paper applies an integrated multiple criteria decision making approach to design an optimal distribution network. In the approach, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used first to determine the relative importance weightings or priorities of alternative warehouses with respect to both deliverer oriented and customer oriented criteria. Then, the goal programming (GP) model incorporating the constraints of system, resource, and AHP priority is formulated to select the best set of warehouses without exceeding the limited available resources. In this paper, two commercial packages are used: Expert Choice for determining the AHP priorities of the warehouses, and LINDO for solving the GP model. © 2007 IEEE.

Strategic development process and complex adaptive systems

The two areas of theory upon which this research was based were „strategy development process?(SDP) and „complex adaptive systems? (CAS), as part of complexity theory, focused on human social organisations. The literature reviewed showed that there is a paucity of empirical work and theory in the overlap of the two areas, providing an opportunity for contributions to knowledge in each area of theory, and for practitioners. An inductive approach was adopted for this research, in an effort to discover new insights to the focus area of study. It was undertaken from within an interpretivist paradigm, and based on a novel conceptual framework. The organisationally intimate nature of the research topic, and the researcher?s circumstances required a research design that was both in-depth and long term. The result was a single, exploratory, case study, which included use of data from 44 in-depth, semi-structured interviews, from 36 people, involving all the top management team members and significant other staff members; observations, rumour and grapevine (ORG) data; and archive data, over a 5½ year period (2005 – 2010). Findings confirm the validity of the conceptual framework, and that complex adaptive systems theory has potential to extend strategy development process theory. It has shown how and why the strategy process developed in the case study organisation by providing deeper insights to the behaviour of the people, their backgrounds, and interactions. Broad predictions of the „latent strategy development? process and some elements of the strategy content are also possible. Based on this research, it is possible to extend the utility of the SDP model by including peoples? behavioural characteristics within the organisation, via complex adaptive systems theory. Further research is recommended to test limits of the application of the conceptual framework and improve its efficacy with more organisations across a variety of sectors.

Controlling particle size in the Stöber process and incorporation of calcium

The Stӧber process is commonly used for synthesising spherical silica particles. This article reports the first comprehensive study of how the process variables can be used to obtain monodispersed particles of specific size. The modal particle size could be selected within in the range 20 – 500 nm. There is great therapeutic potential for bioactive glass nanoparticles, as they can be internalised within cells and perform sustained delivery of active ions. Biodegradable bioactive glass nanoparticles are also used in nanocomposites. Modification of the Stӧber process so that the particles can contain cations such as calcium, while maintaining monodispersity, is desirable. Here, while calcium incorporation is achieved, with a homogenous distribution, careful characterisation shows that much of the calcium is not incorporated. A maximum of 10 mol% CaO can be achieved and previous reports are likely to have overestimated the amount of calcium incorporated.

Deep hole drilling with twist drills: aspects of the CNC process and its real time monitoring and adaptive control

Deep hole drilling is one of the most complicated metal cutting processes and one of the most difficult to perform on CNC machine-tools or machining centres under conditions of limited manpower or unmanned operation. This research work investigates aspects of the deep hole drilling process with small diameter twist drills and presents a prototype system for real time process monitoring and adaptive control; two main research objectives are fulfilled in particular : First objective is the experimental investigation of the mechanics of the deep hole drilling process, using twist drills without internal coolant supply, in the range of diarneters Ø 2.4 to Ø4.5 mm and working length up to 40 diameters. The definition of the problems associated with the low strength of these tools and the study of mechanisms of catastrophic failure which manifest themselves well before and along with the classic mechanism of tool wear. The relationships between drilling thrust and torque with the depth of penetration and the various machining conditions are also investigated and the experimental evidence suggests that the process is inherently unstable at depths beyond a few diameters. Second objective is the design and implementation of a system for intelligent CNC deep hole drilling, the main task of which is to ensure integrity of the process and the safety of the tool and the workpiece. This task is achieved by means of interfacing the CNC system of the machine tool to an external computer which performs the following functions: On-line monitoring of the drilling thrust and torque, adaptive control of feed rate, spindle speed and tool penetration (Z-axis), indirect monitoring of tool wear by pattern recognition of variations of the drilling thrust with cumulative cutting time and drilled depth, operation as a data base for tools and workpieces and finally issuing of alarms and diagnostic messages.

Marital counselling: follow-up study of marriage guidance clients: perceptions of the agency, the process and outcomes. Available in 2 volumes.

This study is a consumer-survey conducted with former Marriage Guidance Council clients. The objectives were to identify and examine why they chose the agency, what their expectations and experiences were of marital counselling and whether anything was achieved. The material was derived from tape recorded interviews with 51 former M.G. clients (17 men and 34 women) from 42 marriages and with 21 counsellors; data from written material and a card-sort completed by the research sample; and the case record sheets of the research population (174 cases). The results from the written data of clients showed that 49% were satisfied with counselling, 25.5% were satisfied in some ways but not in others, and 25.5% were dissatisfied. Forty-six percent rated they had benefited from counselling, either a great deal or to some degree, 4% were neutral and 50% recorded they had not benefited. However the counsellors' assessments were more optimistic. It was also ascertained that 50% of the research sample eventually separated or divorced subsequent to counselling. A cross-check revealed that the majority who rated they were satisfied with counselling were those who remained married, whilst dissatisfied clients were the ones who unwillingly separated or divorced. The study then describes, discusses and assesses the experiences of clients in the light of these findings on a number of dimensions. From this it was possible to construct a summary profile of a "successful" client describing the features which would contribute to "success". Two key themes emerged from the data. (1) the discrepancy between clients expectations and the counselling offered, which included mis­ match over the aims and methods of counselling, and problem definition; and (2) the importance of the client/counsellor relationship. The various implications for the agency are then discussed which include recommendations on policy, the training of counsellors and further research.

Opportunity, fair process and relationship value:career development as a driver of proactive work behaviour

In line with recent findings from organisational justice theory, we hypothesised that employee proactive behaviour and careerist orientation is predicted by the interplay of perceived favourability of career development opportunities, the perceived fairness of the procedures used to decide them, and employee organisational commitment. Employees (N = 325) of a large financial services organisation responded to a self-completion questionnaire. As predicted, when career development opportunities were viewed unfavourably, perceived procedural justice was significantly and positively related to individual proactive behaviour and significantly and negatively related to careerist orientation but only when organisational commitment was high. It appears that high procedural justice may only 'offset' the negative effects of unfavourable career development opportunities when employees identify with, and are committed to, their organisation. Further support is presented for a relational, rather than instrumental, model of procedural justice when reflecting on employee reactions to their employers' policies and decision-making. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

An analysis of the role of soft systems methodology in the change process and the contribution of the facilitator within this process

This research aims to examine the effectiveness of Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) to enable systemic change within local goverment and local NHS environments and to examine the role of the facilitator within this process. Checkland's Mode 2 variant of Soft Systems Methodology was applied on an experimental basis in two environments, Herefordshire Health Authority and Sand well Health Authority. The Herefordshire application used SSM in the design of an Integrated Care Pathway for stroke patients. In Sandwell, SSM was deployed to assist in the design of an Infonnation Management and Technology (IM&T) Strategy for the boundary-spanning Sandwell Partnership. Both of these environments were experiencing significant organisational change as the experiments unfurled. The explicit objectives of the research were: To examine the evolution and development of SSM and to contribute to its further development. To apply the Soft Systems Methodology to change processes within the NHS. To evaluate the potential role of SSM in this wider process of change. To assess the role of the researcher as a facilitator within this process. To develop a critical framework through which the impact of SSM on change might be understood and assessed. In developing these objectives, it became apparent that there was a gap in knowledge relating to SSM. This gap concerns the evaluation of the role of the approach in the change process. The case studies highlighted issues in stakeholder selection and management; the communicative assumptions in SSM; the ambiguous role of the facilitator; and the impact of highly politicised problem environments on the effectiveness of the methodology in the process of change. An augmented variant on SSM that integrates an appropriate (social constructivist) evaluation method is outlined, together with a series of hypotheses about the operationalisation of this proposed method.

Fiber bragg gratings:advances in fabrication process and tools

Successful commercialization of a technology such as Fiber Bragg Gratings requires the ability to manufacture devices repeatably, quickly and at low cost. Although the first report of photorefractive gratings was in 1978 it was not until 1993, when phase mask fabrication was demonstrated, that this became feasible. More recently, draw tower fabrication on a production level and grating writing through the polymer jacket have been realized; both important developments since they preserve the intrinsic strength of the fiber. Potentially the most significant recent development has been femtosecond laser inscription of gratings. Although not yet a commercial technology, it provides the means of writing multiple gratings in the optical core providing directional sensing capability in a single fiber. Femtosecond processing can also be used to machine the fiber to produce micronscale slots and holes enhancing the interaction between the light in the core and the surrounding medium. © 2011 Bentham Science Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for assessing business-incubation input, process and output performance:proceedings of the RENT XXVII Conference, 20-22 November 2013, Vilnius, Lithuania

With business incubators deemed as a potent infrastructural element for entrepreneurship development, business incubation management practice and performance have received widespread attention. However, despite this surge of interest, scholars have questioned the extent to which business incubation delivers added value. Thus, there is a growing awareness among researchers, practitioners and policy makers of the need for more rigorous evaluation of the business incubation output performance. Aligned to this is an increasing demand for benchmarking business incubation input/process performance and highlighting best practice. This paper offers a business incubation assessment framework, which considers input/process and output performance domains with relevant indicators. This tool adds value on different levels. It has been developed in collaboration with practitioners and industry experts and therefore it would be relevant and useful to business incubation managers. Once a large enough database of completed questionnaires has been populated on an online platform managed by a coordinating mechanism, such as a business incubation membership association, business incubator managers can reflect on their practices by using this assessment framework to learn their relative position vis-à-vis their peers against each domain. This will enable them to align with best practice in this field. Beyond implications for business incubation management practice, this performance assessment framework would also be useful to researchers and policy makers concerned with business incubation management practice and impact. Future large-scale research could test for construct validity and reliability. Also, discriminant analysis could help link input and process indicators with output measures.