79 resultados para aggregate demand and supply
em Aston University Research Archive
Resumo:
The existence of adequate financial capital at start-up as well as during the lifetime of a firm is considered to be vital not only for its survival but also for its effective trading and growth, as it can act as a buffer against unforeseen difficulties (Cooper, Gimeno-Gascon, & Woo, 1994; Chandler & Hanks, 1998; Venkataraman & Van de Ven, 1998; Cassar, 2004). Inadequate or inappropriate capital structure is often the most common reason for a large proportion of small business failures (Chaganti, DeCarolis, & Deeds, 1995).
Resumo:
This paper proposes a conceptual model for a firm's capability to calibrate supply chain knowledge (CCK). Knowledge calibration is achieved when there is a match between managers' ex ante confidence in the accuracy of held knowledge and the ex post accuracy of that knowledge. Knowledge calibration is closely related to knowledge utility or willingness to use the available ex ante knowledge: a manager uses the ex ante knowledge if he/she is confident in the accuracy of that knowledge, and does not use it or uses it with reservation, when the confidence is low. Thus, knowledge calibration attained through the firm's CCK enables managers to deal with incomplete and uncertain information and enhances quality of decisions. In the supply chain context, although demand- and supply-related knowledge is available, supply chain inefficiencies, such as the bullwhip effect, remain. These issues may be caused not by a lack of knowledge but by a firm's lack of capability to sense potential disagreement between knowledge accuracy and confidence. Therefore, this paper contributes to the understanding of supply chain knowledge utilization by defining CCK and identifying a set of antecedents and consequences of CCK in the supply chain context.
Resumo:
This paper explores demand and production management challenges in the food processing industry. The goal is to identify the main production planning constraints and secondly to explore how each of these constraints affects company’s performance in terms of costs and customer service level. A single case study methodology was preferred since it enabled the collection of in-depth data. Findings suggest that product shelf life, carcass utilization and production lead time are the main constraints affecting supply chain efficiency and hence, a single planning approach is not appropriate when different products have different technological and processing characteristics.
Resumo:
This paper discusses demand and supply chain management and examines how artificial intelligence techniques and RFID technology can enhance the responsiveness of the logistics workflow. This proposed system is expected to have a significant impact on the performance of logistics networks by virtue of its capabilities to adapt unexpected supply and demand changes in the volatile marketplace with the unique feature of responsiveness with the advanced technology, Radio Frequency Identification (RFID). Recent studies have found that RFID and artificial intelligence techniques drive the development of total solution in logistics industry. Apart from tracking the movement of the goods, RFID is able to play an important role to reflect the inventory level of various distribution areas. In today’s globalized industrial environment, the physical logistics operations and the associated flow of information are the essential elements for companies to realize an efficient logistics workflow scenario. Basically, a flexible logistics workflow, which is characterized by its fast responsiveness in dealing with customer requirements through the integration of various value chain activities, is fundamental to leverage business performance of enterprises. The significance of this research is the demonstration of the synergy of using a combination of advanced technologies to form an integrated system that helps achieve lean and agile logistics workflow.
Resumo:
This thesis is a study of three techniques to improve performance of some standard fore-casting models, application to the energy demand and prices. We focus on forecasting demand and price one-day ahead. First, the wavelet transform was used as a pre-processing procedure with two approaches: multicomponent-forecasts and direct-forecasts. We have empirically compared these approaches and found that the former consistently outperformed the latter. Second, adaptive models were introduced to continuously update model parameters in the testing period by combining ?lters with standard forecasting methods. Among these adaptive models, the adaptive LR-GARCH model was proposed for the fi?rst time in the thesis. Third, with regard to noise distributions of the dependent variables in the forecasting models, we used either Gaussian or Student-t distributions. This thesis proposed a novel algorithm to infer parameters of Student-t noise models. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to the non-linear multilayer perceptron. Therefore, the proposed method broadens the range of models that can use a Student-t noise distribution. Because these techniques cannot stand alone, they must be combined with prediction models to improve their performance. We combined these techniques with some standard forecasting models: multilayer perceptron, radial basis functions, linear regression, and linear regression with GARCH. These techniques and forecasting models were applied to two datasets from the UK energy markets: daily electricity demand (which is stationary) and gas forward prices (non-stationary). The results showed that these techniques provided good improvement to prediction performance.
Resumo:
This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.
Resumo:
Recent research has highlighted several job characteristics salient to employee well-being and behavior for which there are no adequate generally applicable measures. These include timing and method control, monitoring and problem-solving demand, and production responsibility. In this article, an attempt to develop measures of these constructs provided encouraging results. Confirmatory factor analyses applied to data from 2 samples of shop-floor employees showed a consistent fit to a common 5-factor measurement model. Scales corresponding to each of the dimensions showed satisfactory internal and test–retest reliabilities. As expected, the scales also discriminated between employees in different jobs and employees working with contrasting technologies.
Resumo:
Two studies were conducted to test for the effects of attentional demand and cost responsibility on psychological strain. One was a field experiment involving operators of computer-based manufacturing equipment, and the other was a cross-sectional investigation of employees in a wide range of jobs. The results showed increased strain only for those in jobs high on both attentional demand and cost responsibility. Implications for job design for new manufacturing technologies are discussed.
Resumo:
Purpose – This paper attempts to seek answers to four questions. Two of these questions have been borrowed (but adapted) from the work of Defee et al.: RQ1. To what extent is theory used in purchasing and supply chain management (P&SCM) research? RQ2. What are the prevalent theories to be found in P&SCM research? Following on from these questions an additional question is posed: RQ3. Are theory-based papers more highly cited than papers with no theoretical foundation? Finally, drawing on the work of Harland et al., the authors have added a fourth question: RQ4. To what extent does P&SCM meet the tests of coherence, breadth and depth, and quality necessary to make it a scientific discipline? Design/methodology/approach – A systematic literature review was conducted in accordance with the model outlined by Tranfield et al. for three journals within the field of “purchasing and supply chain management”. In total 1,113 articles were reviewed. In addition a citation analysis was completed covering 806 articles in total. Findings – The headline features from the results suggest that nearly a decade-and-a-half on from its development, the field still lacks coherence. There is the absence of theory in much of the work and although theory-based articles achieved on average a higher number of citations than non-theoretical papers, there is no obvious contender as an emergent paradigm for the discipline. Furthermore, it is evident that P&SCM does not meet Fabian's test necessary to make it a scientific discipline and is still some way from being a normal science. Research limitations/implications – This study would have benefited from the analysis of further journals, however the analysis of 1,113 articles from three leading journals in the field of P&SCM was deemed sufficient in scope. In addition, a further significant line of enquiry to follow is the rigour vs relevance debate. Practical implications – This article is of interest to both an academic and practitioner audience as it highlights the use theories in P&SCM. Furthermore, this article raises a number of important questions. Should research in this area draw more heavily on theory and if so which theories are appropriate? Social implications – The broader social implications relate to the discussion of how a scientific discipline develops and builds on the work of Fabian and Amundson. Originality/value – The data set for this study is significant and builds on a number of previous literature reviews. This review is both greater in scope than previous reviews and is broader in its subject focus. In addition, the citation analysis (not previously conducted in any of the reviews) and statistical test highlights that theory-based articles are more highly cited than non-theoretically based papers. This could indicate that researchers are attempting to build on one another's work.
Resumo:
Business organisations are going through rapid external environmental and internal organisational changes due to increasing globalisation, E-business, and outsourcing. As a result, the future of purchasing and supply management—as a function within organisations, as a process that spans organisation boundaries and as a profession—raises important concerns for both organisations and the purchasing professional. This paper considers a broad and rather fragmented body of empirical evidence and analyses 42 relevant empirical studies on the future of purchasing and supply management. The major findings are reported in terms of changes in business contexts, purchasing strategy, structure, role and responsibility, system development and skills. Cross-sectional comparative analyses were also conducted to examine variation by sector, firm type, people's roles in purchasing, and country. A number of major implications for the purchasing function, process and professional bodies are presented together with suggestions for future research to address significant gaps in the current body of knowledge.
Resumo:
It is widely recognised that the effective application of logistics and supply chain management (SCM) has a vital role to play in European economic recovery. Experience suggests that success in achieving higher levels of supply chain integration (SCI) depends on both physical and technical components (the hard-wiring), as well as human and behavioural components (the soft-wiring). There is significant evidence that the latter has been largely neglected by the logistics and SCM community. Furthermore, it appears that the majority of supply chain improvement initiatives by practitioners have been primarily concerned with technological, structural and process issues. This chapter argues that the difficulties often encountered in attempting to put logistics and SCM theory into practice are largely a consequence of a lack of focus and understanding of the people dimension. Based on this discussion, it offers some suggestions for improvement in this area to supply chain professionals.
Resumo:
Companies are increasingly focusing on the development of core competencies as an integral part of their overall strategy development and implementation. The corollary of this is that functions regarded as being non-core are being outsourced. This paper investigates the case for and against outsourcing and in addition what is happening in Ireland regards outsourcing. Furthermore to analysis of current literature in the field, an Irish-wide postal and e-mail survey, as well as three case studies revealed many interesting facts. The key findings of the work are manufacturing outsourcing is now the most popular function to be outsourced for both small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and large enterprises. Large enterprises (LEs) do not prepare or examine hidden costs more than SMEs, nor do they differ much in relation to the use of consultants. Furthermore, the importance of time spent on preparing or producing contract, and the impact the contract can have on the supplier-buyer relation do not differ significantly. It was found that most companies outsourced within Ireland, which led to further investigation in that area. In relation to logistics outsourcing specifically, this has become very important in the supply chain over the last 20 years as an activity that was traditionally handled by firms as a support function. At that time logistics activities such as warehousing, distribution, transportation and inventory management were given low priority compared with other business functions within the organisation. However, since the customer has become more demanding, the logistics function has now become a source of competitive advantage and there has been a growing emphasis on providing good customer service.
Resumo:
The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland were provided with aid to offset locational disadvantages in the run up to the Single European Market. Since then the Republic has emerged as the fastest growing member of the E.U. Success has not been underpinned by the transport system, suggesting that business has had to overcome locational disadvantages by strong performance elsewhere in the supply chain. The evidence indicates that there are Irish firms operating supply chain management techniques at a truly international standard. The problem is that there are so few in that category Meeting Ireland’s competitiveness challenge means closing the gap between the small group of large and foreign-owned firms, which display excellence in SCM, and the larger group of indigenous small and medium size businesses, which do not.
Resumo:
Purpose. Whereas many previous studies have identified the association between sustained near work and myopia, few have assessed the influence of concomitant levels of cognitive effort. This study investigates the effect of cognitive effort on near-work induced transient myopia (NITM). Methods. Subjects comprised of six early onset myopes (EOM; mean age 23.7 yrs; mean onset 10.8 yrs), six late-onset myopes (LOM; mean age 23.2 yrs; mean onset 20.0 yrs) and six emmetropes (EMM; mean age 23.8 yrs). Dynamic, monocular, ocular accommodation was measured with the Shin-Nippon SRW-5000 autorefractor. Subjects engaged passively or actively in a 5 minute arithmetic sum checking task presented monocularly on an LCD monitor via a Badal optical system. In all conditions the task was initially located at near (4.50 D) and immediately following the task instantaneously changed to far (0.00 D) for a further 5 minutes. The combinations of active (A) and passive (P) cognition were randomly allocated as P:P; A:P; A:A; P:A. Results. For the initial near task, LOMs were shown to have a significantly less accurate accommodative response than either EOMs or EMMs (p < 0.001). For the far task, post hoc analyses for refraction identified EOMs as demonstrating significant NITM compared to LOMs (p < 0.05), who in turn showed greater NITM than EMMs (p < 0.001). The data show that for EOMs the level of cognitive activity operating during the near and far tasks determines the persistence of NITM; persistence being maximal when active cognition at near is followed by passive cognition at far. Conclusions. Compared with EMMs, EOMs and LOMs are particularly susceptible to NITM such that sustained near vision reduces subsequent accommodative accuracy for far vision. It is speculated that the marked NITM found in EOM may be a consequence of the crystalline lens thinning shown to be a developmental feature of EOM. Whereas the role of small amounts of retinal defocus in myopigenesis remains equivocal, the results show that account needs to be taken of cognitive demand in assessing phenomena such as NITM.